By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Corn, Soybeans & Wheat
The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were decisively lower this week as all eleven softs markets we cover had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the declines for the softs markets was Corn (-105,723 contracts) with Soybean Oil (-29,827 contracts), Soybeans (-23,733 contracts), Wheat (-22,791 contracts), Lean Hogs (-21,162 contracts), Soybean Meal (-19,792 contracts), Cotton (-18,651 contracts), Live Cattle (-11,216 contracts), Sugar (-7,482 contracts), Cocoa (-1,800 contracts) and Coffee (-346 contracts) also showing lower bets on the week.
Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
Strength Scores led by Coffee & Corn
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (83 percent) and Corn (77 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Live Cattle (68 percent) and Lean Hogs (64 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, Cotton (0 percent), Soybean Meal (4 percent), Wheat (10 percent) and Sugar (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Corn (76.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (90.0 percent)
Sugar (18.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (21.3 percent)
Coffee (82.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (83.2 percent)
Soybeans (39.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (44.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (49.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (65.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (4.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (12.6 percent)
Live Cattle (67.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (78.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (63.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (80.2 percent)
Cotton (0.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (11.3 percent)
Cocoa (28.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (29.8 percent)
Wheat (9.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (27.9 percent)
Sugar top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Sugar (18 percent) leads the past six weeks trends and is the only positive mover for soft commodities.
Live Cattle (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cocoa (-20 percent), Lean Hogs (-18 percent) and Coffee (-15 percent) following next with lower trend scores.
Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-7.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (11.9 percent)
Sugar (18.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (6.2 percent)
Coffee (-15.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-13.0 percent)
Soybeans (-12.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-6.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (-13.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (5.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (-11.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-2.5 percent)
Live Cattle (-27.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-21.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (-18.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-6.7 percent)
Cotton (-13.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-4.7 percent)
Cocoa (-20.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-17.8 percent)
Wheat (-9.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (16.0 percent)
Individual Soft Commodities Markets:
CORN Futures:
The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 335,438 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -105,723 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 441,161 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| CORN Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 26.7 | 40.2 | 6.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 8.5 | 55.0 | 10.1 |
| – Net Position: | 335,438 | -272,829 | -62,609 |
| – Gross Longs: | 492,878 | 744,078 | 124,822 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 157,440 | 1,016,907 | 187,431 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.1 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 76.6 | 26.3 | 33.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -7.3 | 5.5 | 18.9 |
SUGAR Futures:
The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 26,009 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,482 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,491 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| SUGAR Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 21.1 | 51.4 | 6.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 18.2 | 54.3 | 6.5 |
| – Net Position: | 26,009 | -26,402 | 393 |
| – Gross Longs: | 191,009 | 464,615 | 59,086 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 165,000 | 491,017 | 58,693 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.2 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 18.9 | 83.5 | 20.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 18.4 | -16.5 | 5.0 |
COFFEE Futures:
The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 58,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -346 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,183 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| COFFEE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 45.0 | 32.9 | 6.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 8.7 | 71.1 | 4.1 |
| – Net Position: | 58,837 | -62,034 | 3,197 |
| – Gross Longs: | 73,038 | 53,470 | 9,875 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 14,201 | 115,504 | 6,678 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 5.1 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 82.9 | 17.8 | 70.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -15.0 | 15.7 | -17.3 |
SOYBEANS Futures:
The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -34,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -23,733 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,550 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| SOYBEANS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 19.8 | 58.0 | 4.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 24.1 | 49.7 | 8.8 |
| – Net Position: | -34,283 | 67,504 | -33,221 |
| – Gross Longs: | 161,354 | 472,116 | 38,291 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 195,637 | 404,612 | 71,512 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 39.2 | 65.2 | 25.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -12.7 | 13.1 | 0.5 |
SOYBEAN OIL Futures:
The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 14,490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -29,827 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,317 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 20.1 | 55.8 | 5.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 17.5 | 59.5 | 4.7 |
| – Net Position: | 14,490 | -20,749 | 6,259 |
| – Gross Longs: | 112,638 | 312,712 | 32,698 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 98,148 | 333,461 | 26,439 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.1 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 49.4 | 52.7 | 38.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -13.1 | 9.4 | 19.5 |
SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:
The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -55,904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -19,792 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,112 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 18.0 | 52.6 | 8.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 28.1 | 45.6 | 5.9 |
| – Net Position: | -55,904 | 39,090 | 16,814 |
| – Gross Longs: | 100,013 | 292,120 | 49,575 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 155,917 | 253,030 | 32,761 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 4.5 | 93.2 | 31.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -11.2 | 11.5 | -8.2 |
LIVE CATTLE Futures:
The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 90,016 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,216 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 101,232 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 44.3 | 30.0 | 7.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 19.0 | 49.4 | 13.1 |
| – Net Position: | 90,016 | -68,986 | -21,030 |
| – Gross Longs: | 157,737 | 106,632 | 25,730 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 67,721 | 175,618 | 46,760 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.3 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 67.9 | 38.2 | 23.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -27.7 | 26.5 | 23.1 |
LEAN HOGS Futures:
The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 46,665 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -21,162 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,827 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 36.5 | 34.6 | 7.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 20.3 | 49.3 | 9.1 |
| – Net Position: | 46,665 | -42,376 | -4,289 |
| – Gross Longs: | 104,957 | 99,331 | 21,945 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 58,292 | 141,707 | 26,234 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.8 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 63.9 | 34.5 | 51.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -18.0 | 18.0 | 13.2 |
COTTON Futures:
The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -62,137 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -18,651 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,486 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| COTTON Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 24.9 | 52.0 | 5.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 47.1 | 30.0 | 5.1 |
| – Net Position: | -62,137 | 61,640 | 497 |
| – Gross Longs: | 70,011 | 145,796 | 14,670 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 132,148 | 84,156 | 14,173 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 0.0 | 100.0 | 19.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -13.5 | 13.4 | -6.8 |
COCOA Futures:
The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 17,651 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,800 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,451 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| COCOA Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 29.0 | 40.7 | 9.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 11.6 | 62.1 | 5.4 |
| – Net Position: | 17,651 | -21,717 | 4,066 |
| – Gross Longs: | 29,410 | 41,221 | 9,501 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 11,759 | 62,938 | 5,435 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.5 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 28.0 | 71.7 | 51.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -20.2 | 23.1 | -25.1 |
WHEAT Futures:
The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -84,842 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -22,791 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,051 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| WHEAT Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 27.2 | 38.6 | 8.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 47.0 | 19.6 | 7.3 |
| – Net Position: | -84,842 | 81,058 | 3,784 |
| – Gross Longs: | 116,367 | 165,082 | 35,060 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 201,209 | 84,024 | 31,276 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 2.0 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 9.8 | 85.9 | 77.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -9.4 | 9.8 | -2.0 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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