Speculator bets led lower by Gold & Copper :: InvestMacro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator bets led lower by Gold & Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as all six metals markets we cover had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the declines for the metals was Gold (-30,570 contracts) with Copper (-18,987 contracts), Platinum (-7,596 contracts), Silver (-4,455 contracts), Palladium (-2,509 contracts) and Steel (-587 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

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Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (88 percent) and Silver (38 percent) lead the metals markets this week.

On the downside, Palladium (0 percent) and Copper (3 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (35.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (49.3 percent)
Silver (38.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (45.2 percent)
Copper (2.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (19.8 percent)
Platinum (20.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (39.0 percent)
Palladium (0.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (15.1 percent)
Steel (88.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (90.2 percent)

 

Steel & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that all the metals have negative 6-week trend scores currently.

Platinum (-65 percent) leads the downside trend scores with Copper (-37 percent) and Gold (-34 percent) as the next market with the lowest trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-34.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (-20.7 percent)
Silver (-30.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (-22.8 percent)
Copper (-37.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (-18.7 percent)
Platinum (-65.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-33.9 percent)
Palladium (-32.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-19.3 percent)
Steel (-12.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (-6.6 percent)

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Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 131,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -30,570 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 161,738 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.7	26.0	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	62.4	5.3
– Net Position:	131,168	-152,980	21,812
– Gross Longs:	217,505	109,529	44,228
– Gross Shorts:	86,337	262,509	22,416
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.6	62.9	44.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.4	33.7	-19.3

 

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Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 12,425 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,455 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,880 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.2	31.2	21.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.1	50.6	9.8
– Net Position:	12,425	-29,688	17,263
– Gross Longs:	56,785	47,556	32,154
– Gross Shorts:	44,360	77,244	14,891
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.4	56.3	62.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.7	26.3	-4.0

 

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Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -32,697 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -18,987 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,710 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	39.0	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.0	27.2	5.8
– Net Position:	-32,697	30,426	2,271
– Gross Longs:	78,229	100,413	17,289
– Gross Shorts:	110,926	69,987	15,018
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.7	96.8	32.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-37.2	34.8	-4.7

 

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Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 1,938 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,596 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,534 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.1	25.6	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.0	34.5	4.4
– Net Position:	1,938	-8,229	6,291
– Gross Longs:	50,318	23,849	10,369
– Gross Shorts:	48,380	32,078	4,078
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.8	75.7	52.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-65.0	52.6	33.0

 

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Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -13,511 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,509 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,002 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.5	52.8	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	64.0	6.0	6.6
– Net Position:	-13,511	13,042	469
– Gross Longs:	4,317	14,720	2,308
– Gross Shorts:	17,828	1,678	1,839
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	8.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	69.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.3	28.3	33.9

 

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Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,183 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -587 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,596 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.9	81.2	1.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.0	73.1	0.6
– Net Position:	-2,183	1,957	226
– Gross Longs:	3,117	19,560	379
– Gross Shorts:	5,300	17,603	153
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.0	12.1	57.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.0	12.1	-2.3

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.