Speculator Bets led lower by Gold & Copper :: InvestMacro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Gold & Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was the Silver market with a small gain of just 20 contracts.

Meanwhile, the markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-7,852 contracts), Copper (-4,877 contracts), Platinum (-4,023 contracts), Steel (-22 contracts) and with Palladium (-153 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

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Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Silver & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (84 percent) and Gold (80 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Steel (74 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (4 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (80.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (83.5 percent)
Silver (83.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (83.8 percent)
Copper (51.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (56.0 percent)
Platinum (45.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (56.2 percent)
Palladium (4.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (5.5 percent)
Steel (73.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (73.9 percent)

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Steel tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (0.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals and is the only market with a positive level in the latest trends data.

Copper (-28 percent) and Platinum (-28 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-3.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (1.5 percent)
Silver (-9.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (-3.8 percent)
Copper (-28.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (-26.2 percent)
Platinum (-27.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-4.1 percent)
Palladium (-2.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (3.1 percent)
Steel (0.2 percent) vs Steel previous week (-0.5 percent)

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Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 238,749 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,852 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 246,601 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.0	18.4	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.4	74.4	4.4
– Net Position:	238,749	-269,034	30,285
– Gross Longs:	298,119	88,442	51,205
– Gross Shorts:	59,370	357,476	20,920
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.0 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.1	16.3	80.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.2	1.0	18.1

 

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Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 49,081 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 20 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,061 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.8	23.3	20.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.5	70.4	6.9
– Net Position:	49,081	-69,631	20,550
– Gross Longs:	64,574	34,304	30,694
– Gross Shorts:	15,493	103,935	10,144
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.8	16.9	70.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.3	12.3	-20.3

 

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Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 19,598 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,877 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,475 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.6	34.7	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.7	46.0	4.7
– Net Position:	19,598	-28,281	8,683
– Gross Longs:	88,598	86,315	20,395
– Gross Shorts:	69,000	114,596	11,712
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.5	46.1	70.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.4	29.5	-22.1

 

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Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 10,291 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,023 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,314 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.7	24.2	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.0	43.8	4.8
– Net Position:	10,291	-15,925	5,634
– Gross Longs:	44,391	19,658	9,567
– Gross Shorts:	34,100	35,583	3,933
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.5	49.1	58.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.5	30.5	-19.9

 

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Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -13,244 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -153 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,091 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.3	47.4	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.2	8.2	5.0
– Net Position:	-13,244	12,083	1,161
– Gross Longs:	9,677	14,622	2,700
– Gross Shorts:	22,921	2,539	1,539
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	5.8 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.4	90.7	89.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.2	-0.4	19.0

 

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Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -5,898 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -22 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,876 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.6	79.8	1.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.0	51.0	1.4
– Net Position:	-5,898	5,991	-93
– Gross Longs:	2,007	16,615	203
– Gross Shorts:	7,905	10,624	296
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.8	27.4	22.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.2	0.0	-5.9

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.