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By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Gold, Copper & Platinum

Metals Futures Large Speculator Net Position Changes

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals category this week was Silver with a small gain of 454 contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-18,364 contracts), Copper (-6,010 contracts), Platinum (-2,324 contracts), Steel (-557 contracts) and with Palladium (-385 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

metals leaders

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

Metals Speculator Strength Score 3 YR Range

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (92 percent) and Silver (84 percent) led the metals markets this week. Gold (73 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (41 percent) and Copper (45 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (72.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (79.6 percent)
Silver (83.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (83.0 percent)
Copper (45.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (51.0 percent)
Platinum (48.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (54.2 percent)
Palladium (40.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (43.4 percent)
Steel (91.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (94.5 percent)

 


Steel & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Metals Speculator Strength Trend 6 Weeks

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (23 percent) and Silver (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Gold (-22 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Palladium (-4 percent) and Copper (-3 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-21.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (-6.7 percent)
Silver (7.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (8.6 percent)
Copper (-3.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (6.7 percent)
Platinum (-1.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (1.5 percent)
Palladium (-3.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (1.5 percent)
Steel (22.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (28.1 percent)


Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 243,261 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -18,364 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 261,625 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 62.0 13.4 10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.2 68.8 4.4
– Net Position: 243,261 -271,115 27,854
– Gross Longs: 303,132 65,713 49,602
– Gross Shorts: 59,871 336,828 21,748
– Long to Short Ratio: 5.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 72.6 24.7 71.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -21.8 20.0 7.3

 


Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 53,316 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 454 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,862 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 50.2 21.2 19.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.7 69.8 7.2
– Net Position: 53,316 -70,944 17,628
– Gross Longs: 73,315 30,890 28,190
– Gross Shorts: 19,999 101,834 10,562
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.7 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 83.5 15.9 56.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.4 -8.8 10.3

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 13,012 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,010 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,022 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 40.7 32.1 7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 34.7 39.5 6.2
– Net Position: 13,012 -16,189 3,177
– Gross Longs: 88,987 70,271 16,778
– Gross Shorts: 75,975 86,460 13,601
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.4 56.5 37.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.4 4.8 -11.4

 


Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 13,852 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,324 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,176 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 60.8 20.9 12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 43.3 46.6 4.6
– Net Position: 13,852 -20,401 6,549
– Gross Longs: 48,163 16,532 10,229
– Gross Shorts: 34,311 36,933 3,680
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 48.7 47.2 65.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.8 0.5 8.6

 


Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,519 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -385 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,134 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 40.0 45.0 12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 82.8 7.0 7.9
– Net Position: -8,519 7,573 946
– Gross Longs: 7,984 8,966 2,523
– Gross Shorts: 16,503 1,393 1,577
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 6.4 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 40.5 55.5 74.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.6 1.9 10.7

 


Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 3,340 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,897 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.9 58.0 1.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.2 67.1 0.6
– Net Position: 3,340 -3,500 160
– Gross Longs: 13,014 22,292 380
– Gross Shorts: 9,674 25,792 220
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.9 8.6 49.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 22.5 -23.1 9.1

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.


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