Speculator Bets led lower by Gold, Platinum & Silver :: InvestMacro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Gold, Platinum & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were decisively lower this week as all of the six metals markets we cover had lower positioning.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-37,719 contracts), Platinum (-15,769 contracts), Silver (-10,742 contracts), Copper (-5,784 contracts), Palladium (-2,864 contracts) and with Steel (-318 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

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Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (84 percent) and Silver (75 percent) lead the metals markets this week.

On the downside, Platinum (14 percent) and Palladium (24 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (56.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (70.8 percent)
Silver (74.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (88.5 percent)
Copper (55.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (61.2 percent)
Platinum (14.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (51.4 percent)
Palladium (23.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (45.4 percent)
Steel (84.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (85.8 percent)

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Copper tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (5 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals and is the only positive mover in the latest trends data.

Platinum (-40 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Gold (-23 percent) and Palladium (-20 percent) as the next markets with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-23.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (-11.5 percent)
Silver (-8.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (3.5 percent)
Copper (4.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (7.4 percent)
Platinum (-40.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-20.2 percent)
Palladium (-19.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-16.8 percent)
Steel (-10.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (-14.2 percent)

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Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 200,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -37,719 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 238,434 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.6	15.5	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.5	67.7	4.3
– Net Position:	200,715	-232,183	31,468
– Gross Longs:	269,833	69,214	50,486
– Gross Shorts:	69,118	301,397	19,018
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.4	38.7	84.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.1	20.1	18.0

 

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Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 46,516 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,742 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 57,258 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.3	22.9	20.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.2	64.4	8.7
– Net Position:	46,516	-64,022	17,506
– Gross Longs:	68,426	35,320	30,989
– Gross Shorts:	21,910	99,342	13,483
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.9	23.6	55.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.0	6.8	0.9

 

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Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 24,241 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,784 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,025 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.8	32.2	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.9	41.9	8.7
– Net Position:	24,241	-21,429	-2,812
– Gross Longs:	81,213	70,988	16,422
– Gross Shorts:	56,972	92,417	19,234
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.8	52.0	0.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.9	1.0	-38.7

 

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Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -15,769 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,975 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.4	24.4	15.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.4	34.2	5.1
– Net Position:	-794	-8,011	8,805
– Gross Longs:	43,763	19,992	13,005
– Gross Shorts:	44,557	28,003	4,200
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.1	75.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-40.1	35.1	20.5

 

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Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -10,728 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,864 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,864 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.0	49.9	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	83.0	5.9	7.2
– Net Position:	-10,728	9,849	879
– Gross Longs:	7,832	11,163	2,479
– Gross Shorts:	18,560	1,314	1,600
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	8.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.9	72.4	71.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.5	24.7	-28.8

 

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Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 1,704 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -318 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,022 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	60.7	0.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.3	65.5	0.7
– Net Position:	1,704	-1,701	-3
– Gross Longs:	10,947	21,324	231
– Gross Shorts:	9,243	23,025	234
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.3	16.9	32.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.1	11.8	-37.0

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.