Speculator Bets led lower by Gold, Silver & Platinum :: InvestMacro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Gold, Silver & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as all of the six metals markets we cover had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the declines for the metals was Gold (-23,324 contracts) with Silver (-7,085 contracts), Platinum (-6,502 contracts), Palladium (-1,214 contracts), Steel (-261 contracts) and Copper (-69 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

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Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Steel & Platinum

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (95 percent) and Platinum (85 percent) lead the metals markets this week.

Silver (84 percent), Gold (77 percent), Palladium (75 percent) and Copper (55 percent) all are in bullish levels and above their midpoint 3-Year scores currently (above 50 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (77.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (86.0 percent)
Silver (83.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (92.5 percent)
Copper (55.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (55.3 percent)
Platinum (84.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (100.0 percent)
Palladium (75.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (84.0 percent)
Steel (94.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (95.7 percent)

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Palladium & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (22 percent) and Steel (13 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Platinum (11 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Gold (-23 percent), Silver (-11 percent) and Copper (-9 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-22.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (-11.9 percent)
Silver (-11.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (2.7 percent)
Copper (-8.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (3.8 percent)
Platinum (11.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (32.1 percent)
Palladium (22.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (33.3 percent)
Steel (12.9 percent) vs Steel previous week (14.4 percent)

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Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 255,329 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -23,324 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 278,653 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.4	13.1	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.6	63.9	4.5
– Net Position:	255,329	-283,059	27,730
– Gross Longs:	336,816	73,287	52,637
– Gross Shorts:	81,487	356,346	24,907
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.2	20.4	71.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.8	20.4	12.3

 

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Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 53,346 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,085 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,431 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.0	20.1	20.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.7	69.2	6.4
– Net Position:	53,346	-74,243	20,897
– Gross Longs:	73,980	30,347	30,527
– Gross Shorts:	20,634	104,590	9,630
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.6	12.3	71.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.2	8.4	6.1

 

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Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 23,670 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -69 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,739 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.5	32.9	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.1	46.5	3.8
– Net Position:	23,670	-34,211	10,541
– Gross Longs:	101,996	82,982	20,008
– Gross Shorts:	78,326	117,193	9,467
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.3	41.0	81.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.8	4.7	24.5

 

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Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 29,041 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,502 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,543 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.2	17.0	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.3	58.8	3.5
– Net Position:	29,041	-35,774	6,733
– Gross Longs:	55,780	14,515	9,736
– Gross Shorts:	26,739	50,289	3,003
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.6	12.7	68.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.0	-14.0	24.9

 

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Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,667 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,214 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,453 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.0	44.4	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.0	30.3	6.9
– Net Position:	-3,667	2,591	1,076
– Gross Longs:	6,398	8,128	2,341
– Gross Shorts:	10,065	5,537	1,265
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.1	22.5	85.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.5	-28.8	47.0

 

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Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -414 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -153 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.6	68.2	1.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.3	67.1	0.7
– Net Position:	-414	286	128
– Gross Longs:	6,792	17,382	308
– Gross Shorts:	7,206	17,096	180
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.7	5.7	46.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.9	-13.0	3.1

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.