Speculator Bets topped by Gold & Copper :: InvestMacro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by Gold & Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (30,249 contracts) with Copper (2,869 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Palladium (-894 contracts), Silver (-891 contracts), Steel (-802 contracts) and with Platinum (-718 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

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Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Gold & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (100 percent) and Silver (99 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Copper (88 percent), Platinum (77 percent) and Steel (70 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (22 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (100.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (87.0 percent)
Silver (98.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (100.0 percent)
Copper (88.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (85.4 percent)
Platinum (76.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (78.5 percent)
Palladium (22.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (28.3 percent)
Steel (70.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (73.3 percent)

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Gold & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (20 percent) and Palladium (14 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Steel (-11 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Copper (-2 percent) and Platinum (-2 percent) as the next markets with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (20.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (7.8 percent)
Silver (5.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (5.2 percent)
Copper (-2.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (-8.8 percent)
Platinum (-1.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-13.1 percent)
Palladium (14.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (9.9 percent)
Steel (-11.2 percent) vs Steel previous week (-6.5 percent)

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Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 285,024 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 30,249 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 254,775 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.3	19.0	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.2	72.3	5.1
– Net Position:	285,024	-309,304	24,280
– Gross Longs:	349,827	110,041	53,814
– Gross Shorts:	64,803	419,345	29,534
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.4 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	58.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.5	-17.5	-15.7

 

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Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 60,165 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -891 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 61,056 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.0	19.9	20.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.9	70.2	5.9
– Net Position:	60,165	-83,735	23,570
– Gross Longs:	85,005	33,181	33,426
– Gross Shorts:	24,840	116,916	9,856
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.8	1.2	84.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.1	-2.5	-7.5

 

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Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 58,900 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,869 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,031 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.7	24.3	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.9	50.2	3.9
– Net Position:	58,900	-69,858	10,958
– Gross Longs:	139,774	65,732	21,526
– Gross Shorts:	80,874	135,590	10,568
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.1	10.2	84.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.1	4.2	-15.9

 

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Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 21,948 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -718 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,666 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.7	20.7	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.4	55.5	3.4
– Net Position:	21,948	-29,083	7,135
– Gross Longs:	48,962	17,228	9,985
– Gross Shorts:	27,014	46,311	2,850
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.6	14.0	85.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	-2.6	28.4

 

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Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -10,451 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -894 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,557 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.1	54.6	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.6	13.5	6.7
– Net Position:	-10,451	10,136	315
– Gross Longs:	5,938	13,448	1,964
– Gross Shorts:	16,389	3,312	1,649
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	4.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.5	78.5	60.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.4	-13.3	-10.1

 

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Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -6,835 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -802 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,033 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	80.6	0.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.4	50.5	1.4
– Net Position:	-6,835	6,951	-116
– Gross Longs:	2,736	18,631	199
– Gross Shorts:	9,571	11,680	315
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.2	31.1	19.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.2	11.5	-9.0

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.