By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led by VIX & MSCI EAFE-Mini
The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX (6,703 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (5,840 contracts), the S&P500-Mini (2,261 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (2,025 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (1,984 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (246 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.
The only market with a decline in speculator bets this week was the Russell-Mini with a drop of -14,422 contracts on the week.
Stock Market Data:
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
Strength Scores led by VIX & Nikkei 225
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (100 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (96 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nasdaq-Mini (90 percent) and MSCI EAFE-Mini (83 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
Strength Statistics:
VIX (100.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (94.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (65.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (64.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (69.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (69.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (90.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (87.0 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (71.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (81.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (96.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (79.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (83.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (74.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (37 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (35 percent), the VIX (17 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (16 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.
The S&P500-Mini (-4 percent) is the only market with a lower trend score currently.
Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (17.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (-1.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-4.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-26.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (16.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (7.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (37.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (12.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (0.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (6.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (35.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (25.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (10.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-2.2 percent)
Individual Stock Market Charts:
VIX Volatility Futures:
The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 10,943 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 6,703 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,240 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| VIX Volatility Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 25.5 | 43.6 | 9.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 21.6 | 48.4 | 8.4 |
| – Net Position: | 10,943 | -13,545 | 2,602 |
| – Gross Longs: | 71,127 | 121,604 | 25,910 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 60,184 | 135,149 | 23,308 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.2 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 100.0 | 0.0 | 80.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 17.0 | -13.5 | -19.2 |
S&P500 Mini Futures:
The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -76,405 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,666 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 11.8 | 74.0 | 11.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 15.4 | 72.2 | 9.4 |
| – Net Position: | -76,405 | 40,182 | 36,223 |
| – Gross Longs: | 251,351 | 1,579,940 | 237,311 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 327,756 | 1,539,758 | 201,088 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 65.3 | 40.9 | 51.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -4.2 | 11.1 | -20.2 |
Dow Jones Mini Futures:
The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 5,795 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 246 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,549 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 16.7 | 63.1 | 11.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 9.1 | 67.7 | 14.8 |
| – Net Position: | 5,795 | -3,505 | -2,290 |
| – Gross Longs: | 12,694 | 48,033 | 8,949 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 6,899 | 51,538 | 11,239 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.8 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 69.7 | 33.2 | 40.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 16.3 | -8.9 | -23.0 |
Nasdaq Mini Futures:
The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 32,847 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,984 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,863 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 32.9 | 52.6 | 12.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 20.2 | 61.4 | 15.9 |
| – Net Position: | 32,847 | -22,754 | -10,093 |
| – Gross Longs: | 85,091 | 135,792 | 31,046 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 52,244 | 158,546 | 41,139 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.6 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 90.1 | 29.1 | 35.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 37.4 | 1.2 | -48.1 |
Russell 2000 Mini Futures:
The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -14,828 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -14,422 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -406 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 16.7 | 73.8 | 5.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 20.0 | 69.6 | 6.1 |
| – Net Position: | -14,828 | 18,843 | -4,015 |
| – Gross Longs: | 75,021 | 331,976 | 23,509 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 89,849 | 313,133 | 27,524 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 71.9 | 35.5 | 13.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 0.4 | 5.8 | -28.0 |
Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:
The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,025 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -121 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 20.3 | 60.5 | 19.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 2.5 | 75.4 | 22.1 |
| – Net Position: | 1,904 | -1,590 | -314 |
| – Gross Longs: | 2,169 | 6,480 | 2,056 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 265 | 8,070 | 2,370 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 8.2 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 96.4 | 15.4 | 37.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 35.0 | -26.7 | -5.5 |
MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:
The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,840 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,432 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 9.0 | 88.3 | 2.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 10.0 | 88.8 | 1.0 |
| – Net Position: | -4,592 | -2,617 | 7,209 |
| – Gross Longs: | 42,076 | 411,014 | 11,942 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 46,668 | 413,631 | 4,733 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 2.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 83.0 | 23.1 | 52.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 10.3 | -7.4 | -6.3 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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