By InvestMacro
The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on September 2nd.
This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.
To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)
Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:
MSCI EAFE MINI
The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week with the MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level currently at a 97 percent score of its 3-year range.
The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a rise by 6 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 12,692 net contracts this week with a drop of -2,006 contract in the weekly speculator bets.
Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.
Lean Hogs
The Lean Hogs speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week as the Lean Hogs speculator level is now at a 90 percent score of its 3-year range.
The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a gain of 6 percentage points this week. The speculator position registered 83,340 net contracts this week with a weekly increase of 7,272 contracts in speculator bets.
Live Cattle
The Live Cattle speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level resides at a 87 percent score of its 3-year range.
The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a small gain by 1 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 110,235 net contracts this week with an advance by 3,958 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.
Silver
The Silver speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Silver speculator level is at an 85 percent score of its 3-year range.
The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -6 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 55,923 net contracts this week with a positive change of 9,457 contracts in the speculator bets.
Heating Oil
The Heating Oil speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings with the Heating Oil speculator level sitting at an 83 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a boost of 12 percentage points this week.
The speculator position was 30,246 net contracts this week with a rise of 6,479 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.
The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:
Sugar
The Sugar speculator position comes in tied as the most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Sugar speculator level resides at a 0 percent score or at the bottom of its 3-year range.
The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -7 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -85,805 net contracts this week with a change of -11,067 contracts in the speculator bets.
VIX
The VIX speculator position comes in also tied as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The VIX speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.
The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was big drop by -48 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -106,952 net contracts this week with a decline of -13,814 contracts in the speculator bets.
5-Year Bond
The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in tied for the most bearish extreme standing on the week as the 5-Year speculator level is also at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.
The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip by -9 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -2,681,987 net contracts this week with a reduction by -218,016 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.
WTI Crude Oil
The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as the fourth market tied as this week’s most bearish extreme standing. The WTI Crude speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.
The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -21 percentage points this week. The speculator position was 102,428 net contracts this week with a decline of -7,044 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.
US Dollar Index
Next, the US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The USD Index speculator level is at a 5 percent score of its 3-year range.
The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a fall of -4 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -5,021 net contracts this week with a rise of 1,084 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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