Swiss Franc Dips in Muted Trade, Bitcoin Eyes Uptrend Resumption

Swiss Franc traded broadly lower in Asian session today, amidst a backdrop of general market inactivity with all other major pairs and crosses staying inside Monday’s range. Still, it remains to be seen whether the Franc’s sell-off could extend beyond last week’s lows, a downturn initiated by SNB’s unexpected rate cut.

Meanwhile, Euro and Sterling appears to be benefitting slightly from buying against Swiss Franc. But Aussie is slightly stronger Australian despite weak consumer sentiment data. These contrast the softer performance of Dollar and Yen alongside Franc.

As European session presents limited data, with German Gfk consumer sentiment being an exception, market participants are shifting their focus towards the US, where upcoming durable goods orders and consumer confidence data may inject some much-needed volatility into the markets.

Technically, Bitcoin is back above 70k handle with this week’s strong rebound. The development argues that correction from 73812 might have completed at 60769 already, after drawing support from medium term channel. Next focus is 73812 high and firm break there will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 38496 to 73812 from 60769 at 82594.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.14%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.25%. China shanghai SSE is down -0.52%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.91%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0060 at 0.742. Overnight, DOW fell -0.41%. S&P 500 fell -0.31%. NASDAQ fell -0.27%. 10-year yield rose 0.035 to 4.253.

Fed’s Bostic eyes single rate cut in 2024, credits robust economy

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic reiterated his anticipation just one interest-rate reduction within this year. Also, the first cut could happen later than previously envisioned, as Fed can “afford to be patient” as long as the economy holds up.

Bostic’s noted that as long as the economic indicators—such as GDP growth, employment rates, and business activity—remain robust, “I’m not in a hurry to get inflation down to 2%.”

“If it continues on a trajectory, I’m happy with that,” he added.

Australia’s Westpac consumer sentiment dips -1.8% mom, RBA triggers sharp decline

In March, Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index in Australia dropped by -1.8% mom to 84.4. This downturn is attributed to renewed concerns about the near-term economic outlook, with fears regarding inflation and interest rate hikes only easing marginally.

The survey revealed a significant shift in sentiment in responses to the RBA’s latest policy decision. Sentiment scores were markedly higher at 94.9 for those surveyed before the decision, compared to a lower 79.3 for those surveyed afterwards.

The persistence of consumer concerns, notably regarding inflation and interest rates, was evident. Many had harbored hopes for a more reassuring update from RBA on these fronts. Yet, the central bank’s governor did not entirely dismiss the prospect of additional rate hikes. This stance likely contributed to dampening consumer sentiment, as individuals grappled with the implications for personal finances and economic conditions at large.

Looking ahead

Germany Gfk consumer sentiment is the only feature in European session. Later in the day, US will release durable goods orders, hour price index and consumer confidence.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9710; (P) 0.9729; (R1) 0.9767; More..

EUR/CHF is staying below 0.9786 temporary top despite today’s recovery. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen. but downside of retreat should be contained by 0.9630 resistance turned support to bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.9786 will resume the rally from 0.9252 towards 1.0095 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.9252 already, on bullish convergence condition in W MACD. Rise from there would now target 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 (2018 high) to 0.9252 (2023 low) at 1.0303, even as a correction to the down trend from 1.2004. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.9535) holds.

Economic Indicators Update