US Dollar Index Speculators push Bets to most bearish level since 2021 :: InvestMacro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 16th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Australian Dollar & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian Dollar (28,071 contracts), the British Pound (27,025 contracts), the Brazilian Real (6,135 contracts), the Mexican Peso (4,261 contracts), the Swiss Franc (2,799 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (1,740 contracts) and Bitcoin (488 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-30,232 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-9,261 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-7,336 contracts) and with the EuroFX (-7,918 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

US Dollar Speculators push Bets to most bearish level since 2021

This week’s Currency Speculator positioning is highlighted by the number of big changes on the week. We had three currency positions changed by over 25,000 contracts and three others by 7,500 contracts or more.

• Starting off, the U.S. Dollar Index positions fell this week by -7,336 net contracts. This was the second straight week of declines and the third out of the last four weeks. This was influenced by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to reduce interest rates on September 17th by 25 basis points. The overall U.S. Dollar Index positioning has now been in a negative or bearish standing for 14 consecutive weeks. This week’s current standing at -12,894 contracts is the most bearish level for the U.S. Dollar Index since February 23, 2021, a span of 238 weeks. At that time, the U.S. Dollar Index price was right around the 90.90 exchange rate, compared to today, where the U.S. Dollar Index resides at 97.27 to close out last week.

• Next up, the biggest gain on the week was by the Australian Dollar with a rise by 28,071 contracts. Over the past three weeks, Australian Dollar contracts have risen by almost +50,000 positions after dropping to a -100,000 contract (close to a record bearish low) standing on August 26th. Overall, AUD speculator positions have been highly bearish since December of 2024 and have now been in negative territory for 40 consecutive weeks. The Australian Dollar exchange rate has risen by over 7% this year against the U.S. Dollar but remains under its 200-week moving average, with the AUD closing this week at 0.6602.

• The British Pound Sterling had the next highest gain of the week as spec positions jumped by over 27,000 contracts. This week’s gain followed three weeks of declines as well as decreases in eight out of the previous nine weeks. Overall, the British Pound Sterling has now been in a bearish position for eight consecutive weeks but the strong rebound this week brings the overall net standing for the British Pound Sterling to a small bearish position of -6,580 net contracts.  In terms of exchange rates, the British Pound Sterling has been up by 10.33% against the U.S. Dollar this year as the British Pound closed out the week at 1.3472.

• The Japanese Yen saw the largest decline this week by a -30,232 net contract shortfall. The yen positions had started out the year of 2025 on a sharp incline but has been trending the other way and has been quickly shedding its bullish positions with declines in eight out of the past 12 weeks for a loss of -70,866 net contracts over the past 12 weeks. The Japanese Yen position has eroded after reaching an all-time high in April at a total of +179,212 net contracts. This week the overall net position came in at a +61,411 net contracts, the lowest level of the past 30 weeks. The Japanese Yen exchange rate does remain higher against the U.S. Dollar by approximately 8% on the year but has cooled off and has been sliding since hitting a yearly high in April.

Brazilian Real leads FX Price Changes this week

Leading this week’s currency market price changes was the Brazilian Real, which advanced by 0.56%. The Real has now been up by approximately 2% over the last 30 days and is higher now by 5.86% over the past 90 days.

The Canadian Dollar comes up next with a 0.41% increase on the week. The ‘Loonie’ Dollar has turned positive over the past 90 days with a 1.41% rise. The Mexican Peso follows next with a 0.27% edge higher on the week. The Peso has advanced by approximately 6% over the past 90 days.

The U.S. Dollar Index edged up by 0.16% this week, followed by the Euro and the Swiss Franc, which were virtually unchanged but up by 0.09% each for the past 5 days.

The Japanese Yen dipped by -0.24% on the week, followed by the British Pound Sterling, which saw a slide by -0.67%. The Australian Dollar was lower by -0.84%, while Bitcoin declined by -1.20%. And finally, the New Zealand Dollar saw the largest shortfall on the week with a -1.68% decline.

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Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Brazilian Real & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Brazilian Real (95 percent) and the EuroFX (74 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (69 percent), Japanese Yen (68 percent) and the Bitcoin (53 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores is the British Pound (23 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (16.1 percent)
EuroFX (73.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (76.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (23.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (9.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (67.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (75.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (48.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (42.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (44.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (43.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (40.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (20.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (43.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (54.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (68.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (66.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (95.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (90.1 percent)
Bitcoin (53.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (42.8 percent)

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Bitcoin & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Bitcoin (32 percent) and the Brazilian Real (31 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Australian Dollar (23 percent), the British Pound (14 percent) and the Mexican Peso (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-14 percent), US Dollar Index (-13 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-6 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-12.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-3.1 percent)
EuroFX (0.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (0.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (13.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-11.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (-5.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (0.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (2.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-9.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-13.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-16.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (23.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-0.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-15.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-7.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (5.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (8.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (30.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (26.1 percent)
Bitcoin (32.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (11.4 percent)

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Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -12,894 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,336 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,558 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.4	54.4	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	65.9	19.3	8.9
– Net Position:	-12,894	13,534	-640
– Gross Longs:	12,491	20,961	2,776
– Gross Shorts:	25,385	7,427	3,416
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	21.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.8	16.2	-31.4

 

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Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 117,759 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,918 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 125,677 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.6	57.3	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.8	76.9	5.3
– Net Position:	117,759	-167,380	49,621
– Gross Longs:	253,261	490,481	94,620
– Gross Shorts:	135,502	657,861	44,999
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.6	24.2	79.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.7	-1.3	4.3

 

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British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -6,580 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 27,025 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,605 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.5	48.0	15.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.3	50.2	10.9
– Net Position:	-6,580	-5,099	11,679
– Gross Longs:	80,796	112,620	37,259
– Gross Shorts:	87,376	117,719	25,580
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.1	63.9	86.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.8	-16.2	23.2

 

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Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 61,411 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -30,232 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 91,643 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.0	31.8	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.5	54.6	11.2
– Net Position:	61,411	-68,338	6,927
– Gross Longs:	161,673	95,157	40,523
– Gross Shorts:	100,262	163,495	33,596
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.6	33.7	58.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.7	4.8	3.7

 

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Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -26,040 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,799 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,839 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	68.9	21.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.0	29.6	24.8
– Net Position:	-26,040	28,198	-2,158
– Gross Longs:	6,235	49,405	15,606
– Gross Shorts:	32,275	21,207	17,764
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.1	45.5	69.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.7	-8.0	15.2

 

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Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -107,177 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,740 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -108,917 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	82.1	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.0	39.3	11.1
– Net Position:	-107,177	114,181	-7,004
– Gross Longs:	20,975	218,993	22,611
– Gross Shorts:	128,152	104,812	29,615
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.0	60.5	23.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.7	12.9	-4.4

 

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Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -51,160 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 28,071 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,231 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	53.0	19.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.1	26.8	12.5
– Net Position:	-51,160	40,651	10,509
– Gross Longs:	40,276	82,083	29,912
– Gross Shorts:	91,436	41,432	19,403
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.0	54.2	76.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.0	-25.0	25.0

 

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New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -18,004 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,743 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.8	70.5	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.5	31.0	10.3
– Net Position:	-18,004	19,416	-1,412
– Gross Longs:	9,251	34,634	3,655
– Gross Shorts:	27,255	15,218	5,067
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.7	56.0	34.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.2	14.9	-1.1

 

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Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 77,993 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,732 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	61.7	34.0	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.9	79.5	1.5
– Net Position:	77,993	-82,741	4,748
– Gross Longs:	112,395	61,957	7,553
– Gross Shorts:	34,402	144,698	2,805
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.5	31.7	49.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.1	-5.7	6.2

 

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Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 62,222 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,135 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,087 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.6	31.4	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.8	86.1	0.8
– Net Position:	62,222	-65,752	3,530
– Gross Longs:	72,832	37,805	4,483
– Gross Shorts:	10,610	103,557	953
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.9 to 1	0.4 to 1	4.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.0	3.9	40.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	30.5	-30.4	1.7

 

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Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 20 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 488 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -468 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.5	4.0	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	82.4	5.6	3.1
– Net Position:	20	-453	433
– Gross Longs:	23,788	1,151	1,323
– Gross Shorts:	23,768	1,604	890
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.1	46.5	59.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.2	-36.7	6.6

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.