USD and China in Focus :: InvestMacro

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Brent crude oil prices fell below 73 USD per barrel on Friday, reflecting ongoing downward pressure. The market is poised to close the week with losses as a robust US dollar weighs heavily on commodity prices.

This week, the US Federal Reserve signalled a measured approach to reducing borrowing costs in 2025, sending the US dollar to a two-year high. The dollar’s strength has raised concerns about a dampened outlook for global fuel demand, particularly in emerging markets where dollar-denominated commodities become more expensive.

Concerns from China add to market anxiety

The ongoing unease about China’s economic recovery adds to the bearish sentiment. Sinopec, the country’s largest refiner, announced that domestic petrol demand likely peaked last year. This revelation has significantly clouded the outlook for 2025 as China’s role as a key driver of global energy consumption diminishes. China’s reduced demand has cast a long shadow over global crude markets, leading to further downward price pressures.

Mixed signals from supply dynamics

Despite the weak demand signals, the supply side has provided mixed indicators. Earlier in the week, data from the US Department of Energy showed reduced oil reserves, temporarily bolstering prices. However, this bullish factor was short-lived. Kazakhstan’s decision to support the extended production cuts under OPEC+ was another potentially supportive signal, but it has failed to provide sustained relief to oil prices amid broader concerns.

The structural expansion of production outside OPEC, particularly in the US and other non-OPEC nations, further complicates the outlook. Combined with China’s declining appetite for energy, these factors suggest that oil prices may end 2024 on a subdued note, with limited prospects for a significant recovery.

Technical analysis of Brent oil

H4 chart analysis: on the H4 timeframe, Brent continues to trade within a broad consolidation range around the 73.13 USD level. The market recently extended this range upwards to 73.40 USD. However, a downward move to 71.93 USD appears imminent. If the market manages to break out of this range to the upside, the next target lies at 75.05 USD, with the potential for further gains towards the 80.00 USD level.

From a technical standpoint, the MACD indicator supports this scenario, with the signal line positioned below the zero level near recent lows. This indicates that the market could soon attempt a reversal towards higher levels, potentially marking the beginning of a new growth wave.

H1 chart analysis: on the H1 chart, Brent is also consolidating around 73.13 USD. The current wave structure suggests a decline towards 71.93 USD, followed by an expected corrective wave to return to 73.13 USD. If this resistance is breached, the market may gain momentum, with an upward trajectory targeting 75.05 USD and potentially higher levels.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.