USD/CAD rebounded strong last week but reversed after hitting 1.3742. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Break 1.3742 will affirm the case that correction from 1.3845 has completed at 1.3589. Further rally would then be seen to retest 1.3845 high. However, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.3635) will argue that whole rise from 1.3176 has completed already.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern. In case of another fall, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Firm break of 1.3976 will confirm up resumption of whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3176 at 1.4149.
In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2947 resistance turned support holds.
