USD/CAD surged to as high as 1.3848 last week and breached 1.3845 high, but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and some more consolidations could be seen. Further rally is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.3755) holds. Decisive break of 1.3845 will resume whole rally from 1.3176. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.3176 to 1.3845 from 1.3588 at 1.4025.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern, that might have completed at 1.3176 (2023 low) already. Firm break of 1.3976 will confirm resumption of whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3176 at 1.4149. This will be the favored case as long as 1.3588 support holds, in case of pullback.
In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2947 resistance turned support holds.
