USD/CHF stayed in consolidation above 0.9005 last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week and more sideway trading could be seen. Further decline is in favor as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 0.9087) holds. On the downside, break of 0.9005 and sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 0.9004) will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 0.8332 to 0.9223 at 0.8883. However, firm break of 55 4H EMA will suggest that the pull back has completed, and bring stronger rebound to retest 0.9223 high.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 medium term bottom are tentatively seen as developing into a corrective pattern to the down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high). Rejection by 0.9243 resistance, followed by sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 0.8332 to 0.9223 at 0.8883 will strengthen this case, and maintain medium term bearishness. However, decisive break of 0.9243 will argue that the trend has already reversed and turn medium term outlook bullish for 1.0146.
In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). Strong rebound from 61.8% retracement of 0.7065 to 1.0342 (2016 high) will start the third leg as a medium term rally. But there will be no sign of long term reversal until firm break of 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359.
