USD/CHF rebounded strongly after edging lower to 0.8987 last week, but upside is capped below 0.9101 resistance. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 0.9101 will argue that corrective fall from 0.9223 has completed with three waves down to 0.8987 already. Further rise should then be seen to retest 0.9223. On the downside, though, break of 0.8987 will resume the fall to 38.2% retracement of 0.8332 to 0.9223 at 0.8883.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 medium term bottom are tentatively seen as developing into a corrective pattern to the down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high). Rejection by 0.9243 resistance, followed by sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 0.8332 to 0.9223 at 0.8883 will strengthen this case, and maintain medium term bearishness. However, decisive break of 0.9243 will argue that the trend has already reversed and turn medium term outlook bullish for 1.0146.
In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). Strong rebound from 61.8% retracement of 0.7065 to 1.0342 (2016 high) will start the third leg as a medium term rally. But there will be no sign of long term reversal until firm break of 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359.
