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Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.38; (P) 161.59; (R1) 161.93; More…

USD/JPY declines sharply in early US session and breaks 160.25 support decisively. Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, fall from 161.49 might already be correcting the whole five-wave rally from 140.25. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 157.62) will affirm this bearish case. Next target will be 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 161.94 at 163.65. Meanwhile, rise will now stay on the downside as long as 160.25 support turned resistance holds, in case of recovery.

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In the bigger picture, long term up trend is still in progress. Further rise is expected as long as 154.53 support holds. Next target is 100% projection of 127.20 (2023 low) to 151.89 (2023 high) from 140.25 at 164.94. However, sustained break of 154.53 will raise the chance of larger scale correction and target 140.25/151.89 support zone.

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