Weekly Speculator Bets boosted led by Gold & Silver :: InvestMacro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 2nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (35,219 contracts) with Silver (9,457 contracts), Platinum (1,212 contracts), Steel (244 contracts) and Palladium (93 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The market with a decline in speculator bets was Copper with a dip by -572 contracts on the week.

Gold and Silver lead Weekly Price Performance

Metals markets performance this week was led by both Gold and Silver. Gold showed a weekly gain of 5.09% while over the past 30 days, Gold is up by 6.7%, and over the last 90 days, Gold is higher by 7.11%.

Next up, Silver almost matched Gold with a 4.74% gain, while over the last 30 days, Silver is up by 4.83%, and over the last 90 days, Silver is higher by over 23%.

Steel was a little higher this week with a 0.75% advance. Over the last 30 days, Steel has been up by over -7% but over the last 90 days, Steel is up by approximately 19%.

Palladium saw a small gain of 0.38% this week. Palladium has been down by over -9% in the last 30 days, but has been higher by 17.38% in the last 90 days.

Platinum edged up by 0.33% this week. Platinum has been down by -1.79% over the last 30 days, but has been surging higher over the last 90 days by 42.96%. Copper saw a minuscule 0.04% gain this week while over the last 30 days, Copper has tumbled by -22.75% and over the last 90 days, Copper is down by -8.21%.

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Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Silver & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (85 percent) and Gold (75 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (74 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (75.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (61.6 percent)
Silver (85.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (72.4 percent)
Copper (57.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (57.7 percent)
Platinum (53.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (50.5 percent)
Palladium (74.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (73.4 percent)
Steel (63.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (61.1 percent)

 

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Gold & Steel have least negative 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (-1 percent) and Steel (-2 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals with the least negative trend scores. The overall negative trend scores show that despite high speculator strength levels, the sentiment has cooled off somewhat over that past 6 weeks.

Copper (-13 percent), Palladium (-13 percent) and Platinum (-9 percent) lead the downside with the most negative trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-1.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (0.5 percent)
Silver (-6.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (-17.3 percent)
Copper (-13.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (-13.5 percent)
Platinum (-9.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-8.8 percent)
Palladium (-13.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-4.2 percent)
Steel (-1.7 percent) vs Steel previous week (-2.8 percent)

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Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 249,530 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 35,219 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 214,311 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.1	15.0	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.4	70.6	6.5
– Net Position:	249,530	-273,898	24,368
– Gross Longs:	315,796	73,919	56,635
– Gross Shorts:	66,266	347,817	32,267
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.8 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.0	23.7	55.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.3	3.0	-16.7

 

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Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 55,923 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,457 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,466 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.0	25.3	20.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.7	72.2	9.3
– Net Position:	55,923	-74,197	18,274
– Gross Longs:	74,466	40,121	33,008
– Gross Shorts:	18,543	114,318	14,734
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.0	14.1	59.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	6.0	-1.6

 

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Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 25,658 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -572 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,230 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	32.3	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	49.6	4.8
– Net Position:	25,658	-33,950	8,292
– Gross Longs:	61,044	63,120	17,732
– Gross Shorts:	35,386	97,070	9,440
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.1	41.2	67.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.2	5.7	45.4

 

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Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 16,998 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,212 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,786 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.7	19.8	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.6	45.0	5.6
– Net Position:	16,998	-22,430	5,432
– Gross Longs:	52,156	17,575	10,365
– Gross Shorts:	35,158	40,005	4,933
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.5	48.3	61.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.2	4.0	24.0

 

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Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -4,048 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 93 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,141 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.4	37.0	16.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	63.2	25.6	5.9
– Net Position:	-4,048	2,106	1,942
– Gross Longs:	7,714	6,882	3,050
– Gross Shorts:	11,762	4,776	1,108
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.1	13.3	87.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.1	8.8	20.4

 

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Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 327 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 244 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.9	74.1	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	76.5	1.3
– Net Position:	327	-492	165
– Gross Longs:	4,284	15,205	430
– Gross Shorts:	3,957	15,697	265
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.0	37.2	57.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	2.3	-9.1

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.