Weekly Speculator Bets led by Corn & Sugar :: InvestMacro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Sugar

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (12,305 contracts) with Sugar (8,352 contracts), Soybean Meal (5,859 contracts), Soybean Oil (4,963 contracts), Cotton (4,662 contracts), Live Cattle (3,123 contracts) and Coffee (2,212 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybeans (-22,774 contracts), Lean Hogs (-8,097 contracts), Wheat (-3,681 contracts) and with Cocoa (-761 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

The biggest positive mover this week was Corn, with a gain of over 12,000 contracts. Although Corn saw higher bets this week, overall the position has been in an extreme bearish level compared to the last three years. The corn price in the markets has been on the decline and has been touching the lowest levels in a year.

On the downside, Soybeans saw the biggest retreat this week, with a decrease of over 20,000 contracts. Soybean prices have also been lower over the last couple of years, and in fact, are almost 40% off the highs from 2022.

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Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (90 percent) and Live Cattle (81 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (77 percent), Coffee (56 percent) and Soybeans (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Meal (3 percent), Sugar (4 percent) and Corn (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (18.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (16.9 percent)
Sugar (4.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (1.9 percent)
Coffee (56.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (53.9 percent)
Soybeans (54.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (60.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (77.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (74.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (2.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (0.5 percent)
Live Cattle (81.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (77.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (89.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (95.9 percent)
Cotton (22.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (19.7 percent)
Cocoa (22.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (22.8 percent)
Wheat (42.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (45.5 percent)

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Wheat & Soybean Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Wheat (26 percent) and Soybean Oil (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Lean Hogs (12 percent) and Cotton (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Sugar (-14 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybeans (-11 percent), Soybean Meal (-10 percent) and Cocoa (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-6.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (-16.5 percent)
Sugar (-13.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-23.1 percent)
Coffee (-3.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-11.2 percent)
Soybeans (-11.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-8.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (12.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-1.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (-9.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-13.8 percent)
Live Cattle (1.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (0.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (12.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (24.3 percent)
Cotton (4.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-0.2 percent)
Cocoa (-7.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-8.7 percent)
Wheat (25.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (29.8 percent)

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Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -129,457 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 12,305 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -141,762 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.0	44.2	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.8	33.5	11.5
– Net Position:	-129,457	157,267	-27,810
– Gross Longs:	293,548	649,577	141,147
– Gross Shorts:	423,005	492,310	168,957
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.6	81.0	74.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.6	8.0	-4.8

 

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SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -52,099 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,352 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -60,451 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.6	51.8	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.6	44.2	8.7
– Net Position:	-52,099	65,399	-13,300
– Gross Longs:	204,179	448,590	62,405
– Gross Shorts:	256,278	383,191	75,705
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.3	97.4	2.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.9	13.3	-8.9

 

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COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 31,133 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,212 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,921 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.5	41.5	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.8	62.7	4.0
– Net Position:	31,133	-31,971	838
– Gross Longs:	48,940	62,472	6,921
– Gross Shorts:	17,807	94,443	6,083
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.0	46.4	31.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.8	4.9	-20.5

 

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SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 15,294 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -22,774 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,068 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.2	51.7	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.5	51.7	7.1
– Net Position:	15,294	-82	-15,212
– Gross Longs:	186,780	455,507	47,563
– Gross Shorts:	171,486	455,589	62,775
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.4	44.0	72.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.4	12.0	0.9

 

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SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 64,125 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,963 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	45.3	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.6	57.7	4.4
– Net Position:	64,125	-76,481	12,356
– Gross Longs:	135,739	279,001	39,591
– Gross Shorts:	71,614	355,482	27,235
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.3	22.6	83.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.3	-14.6	34.0

 

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SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -79,742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,859 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -85,601 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.9	50.4	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	42.1	5.3
– Net Position:	-79,742	55,787	23,955
– Gross Longs:	128,060	340,589	59,734
– Gross Shorts:	207,802	284,802	35,779
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.7	97.5	77.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.6	9.8	-0.6

 

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LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 104,445 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,123 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 101,322 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.3	28.9	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.9	49.6	13.4
– Net Position:	104,445	-81,860	-22,585
– Gross Longs:	194,938	114,273	30,461
– Gross Shorts:	90,493	196,133	53,046
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.0	22.6	17.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	1.6	-8.3

 

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LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 82,803 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,097 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 90,900 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.9	28.1	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	50.0	7.6
– Net Position:	82,803	-77,017	-5,786
– Gross Longs:	157,623	98,669	21,044
– Gross Shorts:	74,820	175,686	26,830
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.8	9.9	42.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.3	-11.8	-9.7

 

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COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -25,083 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,662 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	47.5	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.0	35.7	4.9
– Net Position:	-25,083	24,866	217
– Gross Longs:	63,934	100,515	10,668
– Gross Shorts:	89,017	75,649	10,451
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.5	78.9	24.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.4	-4.9	10.7

 

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COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 11,823 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -761 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,584 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.5	41.2	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.1	57.9	7.1
– Net Position:	11,823	-16,021	4,198
– Gross Longs:	26,360	39,587	11,035
– Gross Shorts:	14,537	55,608	6,837
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.0	77.6	62.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.8	9.8	-21.2

 

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WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -65,521 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,681 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,840 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	37.5	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.3	20.2	8.7
– Net Position:	-65,521	71,099	-5,578
– Gross Longs:	117,724	154,773	30,534
– Gross Shorts:	183,245	83,674	36,112
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.5	62.6	25.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.5	-22.3	-38.2

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.