Weekly Speculator Bets led by Palladium :: InvestMacro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by Palladium

The COT metals markets speculator bets were decisively lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

The only metals market with a gain was Palladium with a rise of 952 contracts on the week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-3,618 contracts), Silver (-3,112 contracts), Gold (-1,375 contracts), Platinum (-1,235 contracts) and with Steel (-251 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

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Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Gold & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (94 percent) and Steel (88 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Silver (72 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Copper (45 percent) and Platinum (48 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (93.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (94.5 percent)
Silver (72.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (76.1 percent)
Copper (45.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (48.8 percent)
Platinum (47.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (50.5 percent)
Palladium (50.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (43.1 percent)
Steel (88.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (89.5 percent)

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Gold & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (14 percent) and Copper (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Steel (8 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Platinum (-1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (14.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (9.6 percent)
Silver (5.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (8.0 percent)
Copper (6.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (5.3 percent)
Platinum (-0.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-0.5 percent)
Palladium (1.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-14.7 percent)
Steel (7.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (5.3 percent)

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Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 299,409 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,375 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 300,784 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.6	19.1	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.7	75.1	4.3
– Net Position:	299,409	-323,722	24,313
– Gross Longs:	338,371	110,034	49,224
– Gross Shorts:	38,962	433,756	24,911
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.7 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.9	5.8	58.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.2	-13.9	4.0

 

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Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 44,368 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,112 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,480 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.2	22.0	17.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.3	58.5	7.4
– Net Position:	44,368	-60,268	15,900
– Gross Longs:	74,656	36,404	28,119
– Gross Shorts:	30,288	96,672	12,219
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.2	27.8	47.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.2	-3.1	-6.5

 

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Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 13,045 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,618 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,663 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.0	36.1	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.4	43.9	4.9
– Net Position:	13,045	-18,357	5,312
– Gross Longs:	86,831	84,783	16,918
– Gross Shorts:	73,786	103,140	11,606
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.4	54.6	49.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-5.7	-3.0

 

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Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 13,373 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,235 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,608 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	61.2	20.6	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.7	46.2	4.9
– Net Position:	13,373	-19,483	6,110
– Gross Longs:	46,600	15,691	9,802
– Gross Shorts:	33,227	35,174	3,692
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.6	49.3	58.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.9	4.2	-23.3

 

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Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -7,084 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 952 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,036 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.8	47.3	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.4	9.3	8.1
– Net Position:	-7,084	6,470	614
– Gross Longs:	5,593	8,058	2,000
– Gross Shorts:	12,677	1,588	1,386
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	5.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.1	50.1	63.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.7	0.8	-16.4

 

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Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -251 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,534 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	67.5	0.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.9	61.5	0.7
– Net Position:	-1,785	1,717	68
– Gross Longs:	7,367	19,372	271
– Gross Shorts:	9,152	17,655	203
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.4	12.3	39.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.5	-7.7	6.6

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.