Weekly Speculator Bets led by VIX & S&P500-Mini :: InvestMacro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by VIX & S&P500-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX (19,009 contracts) with the S&P500-Mini (15,208 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (12,738 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (588 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (366 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the Russell-Mini (-5,442 contracts) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-1,699 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

---

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

---

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (88 percent) and the VIX (81 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Russell-Mini (66 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nasdaq-Mini (51 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (81.2 percent) vs VIX previous week (60.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (55.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (53.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (87.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (87.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (50.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (31.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (65.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (69.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (56.5 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (52.0 percent)
EAFE-Mini (56.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (57.7 percent)

---

Nikkei 225 & S&P500-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nikkei 225 (25 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The S&P500-Mini (24 percent), the VIX (10 percent) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Russell-Mini (-7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nasdaq-Mini (-4 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (10.2 percent) vs VIX previous week (-12.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (24.1 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (20.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-2.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-0.2 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-4.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-47.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-6.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (1.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (25.5 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (9.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (6.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (23.6 percent)

---

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -31,322 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 19,009 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,331 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.2	42.9	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.7	32.7	8.7
– Net Position:	-31,322	37,550	-6,228
– Gross Longs:	78,019	158,142	25,657
– Gross Shorts:	109,341	120,592	31,885
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.2	20.7	64.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.2	-5.9	-20.5

 

---

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -62,914 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 15,208 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,122 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.7	70.7	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	72.7	8.5
– Net Position:	-62,914	-41,924	104,838
– Gross Longs:	285,690	1,478,906	283,113
– Gross Shorts:	348,604	1,520,830	178,275
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.4	34.1	78.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.1	-25.3	8.6

 

---

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 366 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,595 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	51.1	15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.9	71.0	13.8
– Net Position:	16,961	-18,398	1,437
– Gross Longs:	28,859	47,292	14,234
– Gross Shorts:	11,898	65,690	12,797
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.9	11.5	50.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.0	5.2	-11.4

 

---

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 7,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,738 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,195 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.3	56.5	16.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.4	62.1	13.7
– Net Position:	7,543	-14,503	6,960
– Gross Longs:	65,942	147,110	42,695
– Gross Shorts:	58,399	161,613	35,735
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.8	36.6	93.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.2	3.5	-1.3

 

---

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -27,615 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,442 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,173 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.5	77.6	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.4	73.9	4.5
– Net Position:	-27,615	17,004	10,611
– Gross Longs:	67,862	363,610	31,743
– Gross Shorts:	95,477	346,606	21,132
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.5	31.4	64.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.7	5.8	1.1

 

---

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,918 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,506 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.0	68.8	28.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.6	70.8	14.6
– Net Position:	-1,918	-323	2,241
– Gross Longs:	491	11,359	4,657
– Gross Shorts:	2,409	11,682	2,416
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.5	31.3	73.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.5	-22.2	2.2

 

---

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -10,104 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,699 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,405 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	89.7	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.6	88.6	1.4
– Net Position:	-10,104	4,577	5,527
– Gross Longs:	31,548	389,700	11,511
– Gross Shorts:	41,652	385,123	5,984
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.0	41.8	44.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.8	-7.6	4.2

 

---

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.