By InvestMacro
Open Interest Strength Levels vs Past 3-Years (Where are Traders putting positions in?)
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & 5-Year Bonds
The COT bond market speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (167,521 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (117,989 contracts), the Fed Funds (87,943 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (38,673 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (8,102 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (4,470 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 1-Month (-88,017 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-28,509 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-14,274 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
Fed Funds leads Bonds Price Changes
Leading the bond market’s price performance this week was the Fed Funds, with a modest gain of 0.29%. The Fed Funds have been up by 0.28% over the past 30 days, and are higher by 1.34% over the past 90 days.
Next up, we have the 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate, which rose by 0.25% followed by the 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate, which was a tick higher by 0.09%. Both of these markets are up by over 1% in the last 90 days, respectively.
The 2-Year Bonds were virtually unchanged, with a 0.04% gain on the week. The 2-year bond has been higher by 0.75% over the past 90 days.
The 5-Year Bonds were slightly lower, with a -0.15% decline on the week. However, the 5-Year Bonds have increased by over 2% in the past 90 days. The 10-Year Bonds were lower by -0.39%. The 10-Year Bonds are up by 1% over the past 30 days, and higher by over 3% in the past 90 days.
Finally, the U.S. Treasury Bond was lower by -1.03% over the past week. However, the U.S. Treasury Bond has been higher by 1.54% in the past 30 days, and has advanced by 3.22% in the past 90 days.
Bonds Data:
Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 3-Months
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (72 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (55 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (51 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, the SOFR 1-Month (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (7 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (11 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (42.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (29.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (7.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (9.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (10.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (5.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (36.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (31.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (38.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (36.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (50.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (49.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (72.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (77.8 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (0.0 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (20.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (55.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (46.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bonds & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (25 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (18 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Fed Funds (17 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.
The SOFR 1-Month (-64 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Ultra US Treasury Bond (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.
Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (16.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-36.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (-6.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-14.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (4.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-1.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (15.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (4.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (25.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (19.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (5.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (4.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-11.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-7.6 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-64.0 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-14.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (17.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (12.0 percent)
30-Day Federal Funds Futures:
The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -119,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 87,943 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -207,456 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| 30-Day Federal Funds Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 14.2 | 63.6 | 1.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 19.0 | 59.4 | 1.4 |
| – Net Position: | -119,513 | 107,071 | 12,442 |
| – Gross Longs: | 359,323 | 1,606,503 | 47,927 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 478,836 | 1,499,432 | 35,485 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 42.9 | 54.6 | 78.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 16.8 | -17.8 | 3.4 |
Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:
The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -98,483 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 167,521 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -266,004 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| SOFR 3-Months Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 14.4 | 55.4 | 0.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 15.2 | 54.7 | 0.3 |
| – Net Position: | -98,483 | 97,806 | 677 |
| – Gross Longs: | 1,999,586 | 7,670,131 | 35,703 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 2,098,069 | 7,572,325 | 35,026 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.0 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 55.2 | 44.6 | 78.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 17.7 | -18.9 | 11.1 |
Individual Bond Markets:
Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:
The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -297,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -88,017 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -209,777 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| SOFR 1-Month Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 11.7 | 71.3 | 0.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 29.6 | 53.4 | 0.0 |
| – Net Position: | -297,794 | 297,793 | 1 |
| – Gross Longs: | 193,227 | 1,182,295 | 273 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 491,021 | 884,502 | 272 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.4 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 0.0 | 100.0 | 66.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -64.0 | 64.2 | -2.3 |
2-Year Treasury Note Futures:
The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,403,470 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -28,509 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,374,961 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| 2-Year Treasury Note Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 12.5 | 78.5 | 5.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 43.4 | 51.0 | 2.3 |
| – Net Position: | -1,403,470 | 1,248,246 | 155,224 |
| – Gross Longs: | 569,143 | 3,564,142 | 258,784 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 1,972,613 | 2,315,896 | 103,560 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 | 2.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 7.0 | 90.8 | 78.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -6.6 | 5.9 | 6.8 |
5-Year Treasury Note Futures:
The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,436,774 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 117,989 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,554,763 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.7 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| 5-Year Treasury Note Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 7.7 | 83.8 | 6.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 43.8 | 50.7 | 3.8 |
| – Net Position: | -2,436,774 | 2,234,545 | 202,229 |
| – Gross Longs: | 519,377 | 5,660,026 | 458,365 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 2,956,151 | 3,425,481 | 256,136 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.2 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 | 1.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 10.9 | 86.8 | 87.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 4.5 | -4.6 | -2.7 |
10-Year Treasury Note Futures:
The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -819,299 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 38,673 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -857,972 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| 10-Year Treasury Note Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 13.5 | 75.5 | 8.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 28.6 | 63.4 | 6.0 |
| – Net Position: | -819,299 | 659,945 | 159,354 |
| – Gross Longs: | 728,767 | 4,088,798 | 481,431 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 1,548,066 | 3,428,853 | 322,077 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 36.2 | 53.5 | 93.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 15.7 | -25.8 | 14.3 |
Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:
The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -266,822 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,102 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -274,924 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 14.5 | 75.3 | 9.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 25.7 | 61.3 | 12.4 |
| – Net Position: | -266,822 | 332,797 | -65,975 |
| – Gross Longs: | 345,310 | 1,791,967 | 228,464 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 612,132 | 1,459,170 | 294,439 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 38.2 | 63.4 | 46.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 25.0 | -20.8 | -14.2 |
US Treasury Bonds Futures:
The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -94,138 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,470 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -98,608 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| US Treasury Bonds Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 8.3 | 77.0 | 14.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 13.4 | 79.2 | 6.7 |
| – Net Position: | -94,138 | -41,776 | 135,914 |
| – Gross Longs: | 151,579 | 1,412,245 | 258,901 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 245,717 | 1,454,021 | 122,987 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 2.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 50.6 | 26.8 | 100.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 5.7 | -12.6 | 22.4 |
Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:
The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -263,219 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -14,274 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -248,945 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.8 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 6.8 | 82.3 | 9.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 20.0 | 69.2 | 9.2 |
| – Net Position: | -263,219 | 262,589 | 630 |
| – Gross Longs: | 135,468 | 1,645,379 | 183,916 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 398,687 | 1,382,790 | 183,286 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 72.4 | 42.7 | 15.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -11.6 | 11.2 | 1.5 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
- COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Copper Sep 21, 2025
- COT Bonds Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led higher by SOFR 3-Months & 5-Year Bonds Sep 21, 2025
- COT Energy Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by WTI Crude Oil Sep 21, 2025
- COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led higher by Sugar & Corn Sep 21, 2025
- Wall Street indices close at record highs. Norges Bank cuts key rate Sep 19, 2025
- EUR/USD Corrects Lower in Post-Fed Pause Sep 19, 2025
- The US Fed and the Bank of Canada have cut interest rates as expected Sep 18, 2025
- GBP Holds Near Highs as Market Awaits BoE Decision Sep 18, 2025
- Canadian dollar declines after inflation data. Investors take profits ahead of the Fed meeting Sep 17, 2025
- EUR/USD Hits Four-Year High: All Eyes on the Fed Sep 17, 2025
