Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Copper :: InvestMacro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (4,670 contracts) with Copper (3,107 contracts) and Platinum (847 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Silver (-2,399 contracts), Palladium (-270 contracts) and with Steel (-28 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Silver leads Metals Price Changes this week

Silver was the leader in this week’s metals market’s price performance changes. Silver was up by 1.8% over the last 5 days and has been higher by 12.28% over the past 30 days, while also surging by 31.72% over the past 90 days.

Gold comes in next with a gain of 1.09% on the week. Gold has risen by 8.31% in the past 30 days and is up by 13.74% over the past 90 days. Platinum also rose modestly this week with a 0.45% gain. Platinum has seen its price shoot up by 5.44% in the past 30 days and by a whopping 42.27% in the past 90 days.

Copper dipped by -0.28% this week. Copper has been up by approximately 4% in the past 30 days, but over the past 90 days copper has fallen by -1.24%. Steel dropped this week by -3.59%. However, Steel has been higher by over 3% in the past 30 days and is up by approximately 19% in the past 90 days.

Palladium came in as the biggest loser this week with a -5.39% decline. Palladium, however, has been higher by over 2% in the past 30 days and has increased by approximately 20% over the past 90 days.

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Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Gold & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (81 percent) and Silver (79 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (74 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Platinum (49 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (81.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (79.6 percent)
Silver (79.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (82.3 percent)
Copper (61.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (58.6 percent)
Platinum (49.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (46.9 percent)
Palladium (74.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (76.4 percent)
Steel (59.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (60.0 percent)

 

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Gold & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (11 percent) and Copper (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Palladium (-13 percent) and Platinum (-4 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (11.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (14.5 percent)
Silver (1.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (-7.3 percent)
Copper (9.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (-9.4 percent)
Platinum (-3.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-15.6 percent)
Palladium (-12.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-14.2 percent)
Steel (0.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (-9.5 percent)

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Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 266,410 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,670 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 261,740 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	63.3	15.1	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.7	73.7	4.8
– Net Position:	266,410	-302,371	35,961
– Gross Longs:	326,778	77,867	60,872
– Gross Shorts:	60,368	380,238	24,911
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.4 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.4	13.5	94.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.2	-11.6	9.7

 

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Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 51,538 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,399 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,937 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.0	26.5	19.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.3	70.3	7.7
– Net Position:	51,538	-71,389	19,851
– Gross Longs:	71,623	43,118	32,407
– Gross Shorts:	20,085	114,507	12,556
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.1	18.1	66.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	1.0	-8.3

 

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Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 30,348 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,107 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,241 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.4	31.7	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	49.1	4.3
– Net Position:	30,348	-38,424	8,076
– Gross Longs:	69,370	69,990	17,621
– Gross Shorts:	39,022	108,414	9,545
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.5	37.3	66.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.0	-4.9	-24.4

 

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Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,203 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 847 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,356 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.9	21.3	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.7	42.3	4.9
– Net Position:	15,203	-21,087	5,884
– Gross Longs:	54,061	21,326	10,757
– Gross Shorts:	38,858	42,413	4,873
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.0	52.1	66.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.7	4.9	-5.2

 

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Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,012 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -270 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,742 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.4	38.6	15.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	60.6	27.8	6.2
– Net Position:	-4,012	2,140	1,872
– Gross Longs:	8,024	7,660	3,113
– Gross Shorts:	12,036	5,520	1,241
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.4	13.6	84.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	11.0	8.2

 

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Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -84 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -28 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.0	73.1	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	73.4	1.3
– Net Position:	-84	-74	158
– Gross Longs:	4,491	15,641	442
– Gross Shorts:	4,575	15,715	284
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.8	40.4	56.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.1	0.2	-4.3

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.