Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum :: InvestMacro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (2,443 contracts) with Palladium (19 contracts) also showing a small positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-5,403 contracts), Gold (-2,084 contracts), Silver (-1,319 contracts) and with Steel (-489 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

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Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (91 percent) and Silver (75 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Platinum (70 percent) and Gold (69 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Copper (48 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (69.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (70.0 percent)
Silver (74.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (76.4 percent)
Copper (47.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (52.7 percent)
Platinum (69.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (63.8 percent)
Palladium (55.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (55.7 percent)
Steel (91.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (93.2 percent)

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Palladium & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (7 percent) and Steel (2 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.  is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Copper (-26 percent), Gold (-17 percent) and Silver (-11 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-16.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (-24.1 percent)
Silver (-10.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (-11.7 percent)
Copper (-25.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (-20.8 percent)
Platinum (-2.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-18.7 percent)
Palladium (7.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (11.4 percent)
Steel (1.9 percent) vs Steel previous week (7.0 percent)

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Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 234,367 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,084 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 236,451 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	61.5	14.6	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.9	66.8	4.9
– Net Position:	234,367	-262,322	27,955
– Gross Longs:	309,354	73,459	52,421
– Gross Shorts:	74,987	335,781	24,466
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.2	27.9	71.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.6	15.0	7.8

 

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Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 46,323 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,319 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,642 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.7	24.4	21.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	70.5	8.0
– Net Position:	46,323	-65,081	18,758
– Gross Longs:	65,939	34,466	30,090
– Gross Shorts:	19,616	99,547	11,332
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.7	22.4	61.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.6	12.9	-15.7

 

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Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 15,442 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,403 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,845 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.3	35.9	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.4	45.7	5.2
– Net Position:	15,442	-21,842	6,400
– Gross Longs:	87,842	80,198	18,115
– Gross Shorts:	72,400	102,040	11,715
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.6	51.6	56.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.7	26.3	-17.0

 

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Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 22,676 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,443 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,233 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.3	18.1	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.8	51.6	3.6
– Net Position:	22,676	-29,759	7,083
– Gross Longs:	55,437	16,102	10,307
– Gross Shorts:	32,761	45,861	3,224
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.6	26.2	73.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.3	2.8	-4.2

 

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Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -6,294 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 19 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,313 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.1	47.8	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	60.8	16.4	9.1
– Net Position:	-6,294	5,696	598
– Gross Longs:	4,726	8,673	2,256
– Gross Shorts:	11,020	2,977	1,658
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.9	44.6	62.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.5	-8.1	5.3

 

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Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,297 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -489 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -808 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.9	72.4	0.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.5	68.0	0.7
– Net Position:	-1,297	1,237	60
– Gross Longs:	6,088	20,174	261
– Gross Shorts:	7,385	18,937	201
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.4	9.3	38.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.9	-0.9	-28.7

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.