- WTI oil futures keep facing constraints on the upside
- Trend signals endorse the positive trajectory
WTI oil futures only marginally surpassed January’s high of 79.28, before closing back within the 78.00 territory and around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the September-December downleg, which has been restricting upside movements for more than a week.
The sideways trajectory in the RSI and the flattening MACD cannot guarantee additional price increases, although the indicators are within positive territory.
On the other hand, the trend signals are more encouraging as the bullish cross between the 20- and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) and the narrowing gap between the 20- and 200-day EMAs are promoting the positive short-term trajectory in the market.
On the upside, the support-turned-resistance trendline from the pandemic lows seen at 79.70 has been constraining upside movements since the end of December. Hence, the bulls will have to clear that border in order to access the upper band of the bullish channel at 82.45. The next barrier could occur somewhere between the 61.8% Fibonacci level of 84.70 and the 85.30 resistance zone, a break of which could then clear the way towards October’s bar of 89.20.
On the downside, the exponential moving averages currently within the 76.00-77.60 zone could delay any extensions towards the channel’s lower band and the 23.6% Fibonacci of 74.35. If the bears continue lower, the price might seek shelter near the 71.45 region and then around 69.45.
In brief, WTI oil futures cannot confirm a bullish bias despite their positive trajectory. For that to happen, the price will have to overcome the 78.40-79.68 area.
