Yen, BRL, 5-Year & Dollar Index lead Bullish & Bearish Positions :: InvestMacro

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on April 22nd.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

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Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position, once again, comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Japanese Yen speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range as the speculator net positioning continues to make new all-time highs for the 3rd week in a row.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score increased by 12.1 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 177,814 net contracts this week with a gain of 5,959 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

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Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position comes up next in the extreme standings this week. The Brazil Real speculator level is now at a 99.7 percent score compared to its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 7.6 this week. The speculator position registered 49,887 net contracts this week with a weekly rise of 855 contracts in speculator bets.

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Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Nasdaq speculator level resides at a 97.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 23.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 37,680 net contracts this week with an increase by 5,886 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

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Nikkei 225

The Nikkei 225 speculator position comes in at number four in the extreme standings this week as the Nikkei 225 speculator level is at a 96.4 percent score over its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 35.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 1,904 net contracts this week with a gain of 2,025 contracts in the speculator bets.

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VIX

The VIX speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings with the VIX speculator level at a 89.4 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled 10.8 this week.

The speculator position sits at -5,745 net contracts this week with a rise of 11,552 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

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This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score or the bottom of the 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -15.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -2,191,434 net contracts this week with a decrease of -129,859 contracts in the speculator bets.

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US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week as USD sentiment has been deteriorating. The US Dollar Index speculator level is at just a 4.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -36.9 this week. The speculator position was -974 net contracts this week with a reduction of -2,802 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

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Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Wheat speculator level resides at a 6.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.1 this week. The overall speculator position was -93,969 net contracts this week with a decline of -5,643 contracts in the speculator bets.

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E-mini SP MidCap400

The E-mini SP MidCap400 speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish standing with the MidCap400 speculator level at a 11.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -23.4 this week while the speculator position totaled -86 net contracts this week with a tiny change of 5 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

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2-Year Bond

Finally, the 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish standing for this week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 13.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5.2 this week and the speculator position was -1,297,995 net contracts this week with a drop of -43,222 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.