AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6361 continued last week despite interim pull back. Breach of 0.6643 resistance affirms the case that fall from 0.6870 has completed with three waves down to 0.6361. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 100% projection of 0.6361 to 0.6585 from 0.6464 at 0.6688 next. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 0.6464 support holds, in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which could still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.
In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.
