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  • CADJPY leans to the downside after two-month high
  • 2024 uptrend remains intact above 109.50
  • BoC policy announcement due at 15:00 GMT

CADJPY lost momentum after the peak at a two-month high of 110.37 on Monday, but January’s series of higher highs and higher lows on the four-hour chart remain intact and only a break below the 50-period simple moving average (SMA) and the support trendline at 109.40 would put the upward trajectory in doubt.

The technical indicators favor the bearish scenario as the RSI is crossing below its 50 neutral mark and the stochastic oscillator is shifting southwards. The MACD keeps decelerating below its red signal line, adding to the discouraging signals.

If the price drops below the ascending trendline and the 50-period SMA, which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2024 uptrend, it could meet the 38.2% Fibonacci mark of 108.78. The 50% Fibonacci of 108.30 could next come into view ahead of the 61.8% Fibonacci of 107.80 and the 200-period SMA.

Should the upward pattern strengthen above November’s high of 110.65, the door will open for the 2023 top of 111.15. The 112.00-112.50 area last seen during 2007-2008 could be the next obstacle.

In summary, CADJPY is facing a weakening bias, but sellers may stay patient until they see a close below 109.40. 


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