NEW DELHI: Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran bets on the high possibility of India’s 8% growth rate in the Financial Year 2024.
At an event organised by NCAER in New Delhi, the CEA said the growth projection is riding on the back of robust growth registered during the three quarters of the financial year ended March 2024.
“The IMF has projected a growth rate of 7.8 per cent for FY24. But if you look at the trajectory of growth in the first three quarters, obviously, the possibility that the growth rate touches 8 per cent is quite high,” he said.
The CEA also said that he would be happy if the gross domestic product (GDP) were to have a 9.5-10% rate like that of China but the context had shifted.
“The 6.5-7% growth rate was expected to continue in the coming years and it was important to maintain it,” he added.
He said that for the ongoing financial year, the IMF has an estimate of 6.8%, but the RBI expects a 7% GDP growth for FY25.
“If that materialises, of course, it will be the fourth consecutive year after COVID starting from FY22 that the economy will have grown at 7% or more. The RBI forecasts of 7% for FY25 turns out to be either correct or even underestimate, then it would be the fourth consecutive year of 7 or higher growth rate,”CEA said.
A lot depends upon the monsoon
V Anantha Nageswaran further said that a lot would depend on how the monsoon shapes up. Although the expectations are that there will be an above-normal monsoon, spatial and temporal distribution will matter.
He also said that the investment made in supply-side augmentation of both physical and digital infrastructure has placed the economy to pursue non-inflationary growth.
The household sector’s net financial savings flows were lower in 2022-23 at 5.1% due to the bulk of savings shifting to real sectors, he said.
The event was organised under the title of “World Economic Outlook & India: What Lies Ahead” organised by NCAER.
IMF economists Dr Mehdi Benatiya Andaloussi and Dr Nicolas Fernandez-Arias presented the IMF’s global outlook, followed by a discussion by a panel comprising Dr Poonam Gupta, Director General of NCAER, and Dr Auguste Tano Kouamé, World Bank’s Country Director for India. Ms Lena Schipper.
