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EUR/JPY reversed after initial rise to 171.58 last week and fell sharply. Initial bias remains on the downside this week. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 163.94) will extend the fall from 171.58 to 61.8% retracement of 153.15 to 171.58 at 160.19. On the upside, above 167.37 will turn bias neutral.

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In the bigger picture, a medium top could be formed at 171.58 after brief breach of 169.96 (2008 high). As long as 55 W EMA (now at 157.53) holds, fall from there is seen as correcting the rise from 153.15 only. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that larger scale correction is underway and target 153.15 support.

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In the long term picture, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is seen as the third leg of the whole up trend from 94.11 (2012 low). 100% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 from 114.42 at 170.07 was already met but there is not signal reversal yet. Firm break of 170.07 will target 138.2% projection at 191.32. This will remain the favored case as long as 153.15 support holds.

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