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EUR/USD recovered further to 1.0752 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. On the upside, above 1.0752 will resume the rebound to 55 D EMA (now at 1.0780). On the downside, break of 1.0677 minor support will turn intraday bias to the downside for retesting 1.0601 low.


In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Current fall from 1.1138 is seen as the third leg. While deeper decline is would be seen to 1.0447 and possibly below, strong support should emerge from 61.8% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0199 to complete the correction.


In the long term picture, a long term bottom is in place at 0.9534 on bullish convergence condition in M MACD. It’s still early to call for bullish trend reversal with the pair staying inside falling channel in the monthly chart. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 M EMA (now at 1.1036) and break of 1.1274 resistance will raise the chance of reversal and target 1.2348 resistance for confirmation.



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