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GBP/JPY reversed after rising to 200.53 last week and fell sharply since then. Initial bias remains on the downside this week. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 191.34) will extend the fall from 200.53, to 61.8% retracement of 178.32 to 200.53 at 186.80. On the upside, break of 195.73 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral.

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In the bigger picture, a medium term top could be in place at 200.53 after breaching 199.80 long term fibonacci level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 182.98) holds, fall from there is seen as correcting the rise from 178.32 only. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that larger scale correction is underway and target 178.32 support.

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In the longer term picture, rise from 122.75 (2016 low) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 116.83 (2011 low). Focus is now on 61.8% retracement of 251.09 (2007 high) to 116.83 at 199.80. Decisive break there would pave the way back to 251.09 in the long term.

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