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GBP/JPY’s rally from 191.34 continued last week and outlook is unchanged. This rise is still seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 200.53. Initial bias stays on the upside for 100% projection of 191.34 to 180.07 from 195.02 at 200.75. But upside should be limited there. On the downside, below 198.25 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. Further break of 197.07 will argue that the third leg has started, and target 191.34 support and possibly below.


In the bigger picture, a medium term top could be in place at 200.53 after breaching 199.80 long term fibonacci level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 183.92) holds, price actions from there is seen as correcting the rise from 178.32 only. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that larger scale correction is underway and target 178.32 support.


In the longer term picture, rise from 122.75 (2016 low) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 116.83 (2011 low). Focus is now on 61.8% retracement of 251.09 (2007 high) to 116.83 at 199.80. Decisive break there would pave the way back to 251.09 in the long term.



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