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  • GBPUSD moves sharply down on the first trading day of April
  • 2024 neutral trajectory valid above 1.2500

GBPUSD plummeted to a six-week low of 1.2538 as investors returned from the Easter holiday break, re-establishing the downward pattern from the March high.

Given the price’s position at the bottom of the 2024 range and around the lower Bollinger band, it will be intriquing to observe if the pair can avoid a bearish breakout even after getting another rejection from the December 2023 descending trendline.

Should sellers maintain control, the price might initially examine February’s low of 1.2517 and the 1.2500 psychological number before plunging towards the key 1.2440 constraining zone. Additional losses from there could soften somewhere between the 1.2400 round level and the tentative support line drawn from December 21 at 1.2380.

In the event the pair builds a firm base around 1.2538, traders might shift their attention to the 1.2600 mark, where the 20-period simple moving average (SMA) is located. A decisive move higher could face another challenging session near the December resistance line at 1.2640. The bulls will have to overcome that bar to meet the flattening 200-period SMA at 1.2680, a break of which is expected to direct the price towards the broken ascending trendline at 1.2715.

In summary, GBPUSD had a rough start to the month, though hopes for a rebound may not evaporate unless the pair exits its 2024 neutral trajectory below the 1.2500 region.  


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