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MUMBAI – The recent rise in Indian government bond yields has investors scouting for value as yields are seen easing later this year despite the central bank holding rates, treasury officials said.

A scaling back of U.S. rate cut expectations and a rise in oil prices amid the escalating Middle East crisis has pushed up India’s 10-year benchmark bond yield about 20 basis points this month to 7.23% on Friday, its highest in more than three months.

“The 10-year bond yield at 7.25% is an attractive entry point, as the broader view of a declining yields scenario remains intact over the medium term,” Vikas Goel, managing director at the primary dealer PNB Gilts said.

The yield on a new 10-year bond, which will become India’s benchmark note soon, should fall towards 7% over the next few months from 7.15% currently, Goel said.

Higher U.S. Treasury yields and the rupee slipping to record lows has led to some position unwinding by foreign investors, who have sold nearly $1.3 billion of government bonds in April.

Once the global factors settle down, yields could start declining, Alok Singh, group head of treasury at CSB Bank said.

“I do see the 10-year yield easing towards 7% later in 2024,” he said.

India’s central bank is expected to hold rates steady this year as it seeks to ensure inflation aligns durably and sustainably to its 4% target.

Still, a fiscally-prudent government could mean that the bond supply stays contained.

The country’s multi-phased general elections started on Friday. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who favours fiscal prudence, is expected to win a third term.

“Overall demand-supply dynamics continue to remain favorable and hence we should see some reversal from the current 7.23%-7.25% levels,” VRC Reddy, treasury head at Karur Vysya Bank said. ($1 = 83.5051 Indian rupees)

  • Published On Apr 19, 2024 at 05:30 PM IST

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