Forex
FX option expiries for 20 November 10am New York cut
There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.They are for EUR/USD at the 1.0540 and 1.0620 levels. The former isn't one that holds much technical significance so I wouldn't bet on it to come into play, although geopolitical headlines...
FX option expiries for 19 November 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0600 level. It isn't one that holds much technical significance and with the dollar retracing back some of its moves from last week, the expiries may not offer too...
FX option expiries for 18 November 10am New York cut
There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.They are for EUR/USD at the 1.0500 and 1.0520 levels. Similar to last week, the former will be the more important one to watch as it sits alongside a key technical support region for the pair. That will...
FX option expiries for 15 November 10am New York cut
There is just one to really take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the pivotal 1.0500 level. As mentioned here, that is a major technical mark for the pair and the expiries today highlights the added interest towards that. If...
FX option expiries for 14 November 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of, as highlighted in bold. But dollar domination is the name of the game now, so just be wary that the expiries aren't going to matter all too much.The one highlighted is for EUR/USD at the 1.0550 level. However, it isn't one that holds...
FX option expiries for 13 November 10am New York cut
There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.They are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0600 and 1.0650 levels. The former in particular will continue to be a notable one, adding another layer to key support at the figure level for the time being. As such,...
FX option expiries for 12 November 10am New York cut
There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.And they are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0600 and 1.0625 levels. The pair is being pressured to the downside, touching its lowest levels since April now as the dollar continues to rampage...
FX option expiries for 11 November 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0700 level. The daily lows last week were held by the figure level, so the expiries will add another layer to that as we get the new week underway at least. With the bond market...
FX option expiries for 8 November 10am New York cut
There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.And again, they are all for EUR/USD layered in between 1.0750 through to 1.0800. Post-election sentiment is still the name of the game in driving FX flows now, so the expiries are just...
FX option expiries for 7 November 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.They are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0725 and 1.0775 levels. To some degree, the expiries might just lock price action in between these levels but it's all about post-election sentiment now. And momentum flows...
FX option expiries for 6 November 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. But on a day like this, the influence of the expiries is far from the first thing in driving or impacting trading sentiment. It's all about the US election and the momentum flows riding from the...
FX option expiries for 5 November 10am New York cut
There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.And they are for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 and 1.0900 levels. Considering the focus on the US election, this will keep price action more boxed in going into European trading and before we get to the election...
FX option expiries for 4 November 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.0900 level. The figure level isn't one that holds any technical significance but the expiries could well help to box in price action in the session ahead. That...
November financial market seasonals: Japanese FX officials won’t want to read this
USDJPY weeklyThe election is going to dominate early November trading so making moves based on seasonals is unwise. That said, it's useful to keep them in mind as the dust settles.November is the best month for USD/JPYBest month for the NasdaqThird-best month for the...
FX option expiries for 01 November 2024 at the 10am New York cut
Justin is away for today. This is my sad imitation of his awesome option expiry post 😉 Justin will be back on Monday. EUR/USD 1.0900 (EUR1.1bn), 1.0840 (EUR863m)USD/CAD 1.3940 (US$693m), 1.3885 (US$650m), 1.3900 (US$457m)GBP/USD 1.2900 (GBP638m), 1.2850 (GBP600.4m),...
FX option expiries for 31 October 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 level and that is likely to limit price action until we get to the euro area inflation data later. The numbers there offers a risk to the single currency, but there...
FX option expiries for 30 October 10am New York cut
There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.And they are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0775 and 1.0850 levels. The expiries are sandwiching the spot price at the moment with price action this week largely contained in between 1.0780 through...
FX option expiries for 29 October 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.It's the same one for EUR/USD as seen yesterday, at the 1.0800 level. The expiries today are relatively large and could provide a draw/magnet for price action in the session ahead. That could very...
FX option expiries for 28 October 10am New York cut
There is just one to really take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0800 level. Alongside the 100-hour moving average nearby at 1.0802 currently, it is likely to keep a lid on price action in the session ahead. That especially...
FX option expiries for 25 October 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The ones for EUR/USD are seen at the 1.0800 and 1.0820 levels. The ones at the former held price action yesterday before rolling off and the ones today should keep downside price action more limited...
FX option expiries for 24 October 10am New York cut
There are quite a number on the board for the day, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.0780 level through to 1.0800. That might keep price action locked in for a while until we get to the euro area PMI data later. If there is downside...
FX option expiries for 23 October 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 level. The size of the expiries is noteworthy but it might not feature too much into play as the dollar is keeping firmer this week. Besides that, there is...
FX option expiries for 22 October 10am New York cut
There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 level. It coincides with the 100-hour moving average currently, which is where price action was held up in trading yesterday. As such, the expiries alongside the...
FX option expiries for 21 October 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.0885 level. It isn't one that holds much technical significance, especially with the 100-hour moving average at 1.0866 pinning price action down for now. But it...
FX option expiries for 18 October 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 level. It isn't one that ties too much with any key technical levels but the expiries could help to just keep a lid on price action for the session ahead. That...
FX option expiries for 17 October 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for AUD/USD at the 0.6700 level. When paired together with the technical predicament here, the expiries add another layer for buyers to have to chew through in the session ahead. As such,...
FX option expiries for 16 October 10am New York cut
There aren't any major expiries to take note of on the day. As such, trading sentiment might be a bit more muted in the session ahead. The dollar is keeping steadier across the board, so that continues to be the running theme since two weeks ago. There's no...
FX option expiries for 15 October 10am New York cut
There are some large ones on the board for today but may not feature into play given the current spot price levels.The one for EUR/USD is seen at the 1.1000 mark but as the dollar holds firmer, it's not likely to factor into price action in the session ahead. There...
FX option expiries for 14 October 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.0950 level. That sits near the 100-hour moving average at 1.0949 currently with the bigger picture focus being on the pair's 100-day moving average at 1.0935....
FX option expiries for 11 October 10am New York cut
There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.And they are for EUR/USD at the 1.0930 and 1.0950 levels. If anything else, the expiries should help to keep price action more locked in that range in the session ahead. All that before we get to US...
FX option expiries for 10 October 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first being for USD/JPY at the 149.50 level. And that could help to act as a bit of a magnet to lock price action in before we get to the US CPI report later in the day. The pair remains buoyed...
FX option expiries for Wednesday 9 October 10am New York cut
USD/JPY: 144.75 ($1.42b), 147.00 ($960m)EUR/USD: 1.1000 (EUR790m), 1.0900 (EUR482m), 1.1275 (EU3R95m)USD/CAD: 1.3535 ($420m), 1.3550 ($301m)AUD/USD: 0.6625 (AUD648.5m)NZD/USD: 0.6050 (NZD751m), 0.6250 (NZD666m)For more information on how to use this data, you may...
FX option expiries for 8 October 10am New York cut
Justin will be back tomorrow. I know that'll be a relief for many of you options guys - I feel the same. USD/JPY: 150.00 (US$951m), 145.45 (US$750.1m)EUR/USD: 1.1085 (EUR1.11b), 1.1250 (EUR1.03b), 1.1000 (EUR1.01b)AUD/USD: 0.6800 (AUD781m), 0.6740 (AUD554m), 0.6825...
FX option expiries for 4 October 10am New York cut
Justin is off for a few days. I'll be posting these for another couple of days before regular (and much better 😉 ) service resumes! EUR/USD: 1.1000 (EUR2.09b), 1.1100 (EUR1.07b)USD/JPY: 148.00 (US$958m), 146.25 (US$879m)USD/CAD: 1.3350 (US$1.68b), 1.3500 (US$993m),...
FX option expiries for 2 October 10am New York cut
Justin is off for a few days. Apparently he is in Tokyo. Like I said yesterday, I am not jealous. Nope. 🙁 USD/JPY: 145.00 (US$2.12b), 150.00 (US$1.4b), 144.35 (US$1.2b)EUR/USD: 1.1100 (EUR2.54b), 1.0550 (EUR1.94b), 1.1060 (EUR1.61b)AUD/USD: 0.6650 (AUD1.11b), 0.6785...
FX option expiries for 3 October 10am New York cut
USD/JPY: 148.00 (US$1.74b), 145.75 (US$1.15b)EUR/USD: 1.1100 (EUR4.06b), 1.1060 (EUR2.37b), 1.1000 (EUR2.04b)AUD/USD: 0.6950 (AUD739.5m), 0.6785 (AUD1.16b)USD/CAD: 1.3550 (US$1.09b)NZD/USD: 0.6310 (NZD1.4b)GBP/USD: 1.3130 (GBP479.8m), 1.3300 (GBP381.1m)USD/CHF:0.8500...
FX option expiries for 2 October 10am New York cut
Justin is off for a few days. I am not jealous. Nope. 🙁 For the 10am New York cut today, Wednesday, October 2, 2024: USD/JPY144.00 (USD832m), 139.00 (USD560m)EUR/USD1.1025 (EUR2.11b), 1.1125 (EUR1.48b), 1.1100 (EUR1.21b)AUD/USD0.6950 (AUD495m), 0.6800...
FX option expiries for 1 October 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1100 level. The price action since last week shows that it might take a bit to travel there but if it does, the expiries will act as a bit of a defensive layer...
How major market indexes performed in the third quarter
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
FX option expiries for 30 September 10am New York cut
There aren't any major expiries to take note of on the day. But just be wary that trading sentiment could be impacted by month-end and quarter-end flows later, especially when we get closer towards the London fix. That might make for a bit of a trickier time in...
FX option expiries for 27 September 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for USD/CAD at the 1.3500 level. It isn't one that ties to a technical level, so it isn't too significant. But if anything else, it could just draw and keep a lid on price action until we...
October forex seasonals: It’s harvest time
When markets open up on Monday, it will be October. Notably, Chinese markets will be open Monday as the Chinese Communist Party celebrates 75 years in power. From there, Chinese equity markets will be closed for the remainder of the week.That's an important detail...
FX option expiries for 26 September 10am New York cut
There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.1150 and 1.1180-90 levels. That could play a role in locking price action a fair bit during the session ahead, amid the lack of other catalysts in driving the...
China – top government economic adviser disappears after crticism of Xi Jinping
Zhu Hengpeng was deputy director of the Institute of Economics at the state-run Chinese Academy of Social Sciences ()CASS). CASS is China's pre-eminent thinktanks. He lost his job and was detained after he allegedly made some remarks in a private group chat on the...
FX option expiries for 25 September 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The standout ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.1200-10 levels. There is already key technical resistance holding the pair thereabouts as seen here, so the expiries will add another layer to that. So,...
FX option expiries for 23 September 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1150 level. It isn't one that holds much technical significance, but it could put a bit of a floor to price action during the session ahead at least. That with the...
FX option expiries for 20 September 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD and layered between 1.1150 and 1.1200. Given the more muted action so far, the expiries could keep price action in check before rolling off later in the day. If the...
FX option expiries for 19 September 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.And they are all for EUR/USD, layered in between 1.1100 through to 1.1150. Traders are still largely digesting the Fed decision from yesterday but the expiries above could play a role in locking...
FX option expiries for 18 September 10am New York cut
It's all about the Fed today, and there isn't anything too significant on the option expiries board to really influence price action in the meantime.There is a decent sized one for USD/JPY at 141.00 but we might not really revisit that level until we get to the FOMC...
FX option expiries for 17 September 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.1125 level. It rests at the 38.2/61.8 Fib retracement level of the swing lower since August, so there's that. But if anything else, the expiries could just keep price...
FX option expiries for 16 September 10am New York cut
There aren't really any to take note of on the day. As such, trading sentiment will rely more on the positioning flows in the run up to the FOMC meeting later in the week. The dollar is under pressure now with yields pinned lower and that will continue to be the key...
FX option expiries for 13 September 10am New York cut
There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for AUD/USD at the 0.6740 level. It isn't one that holds much technical significance though, so there might not be much in it. But if anything else, the expiries could keep price...
FX option expiries for 12 September 10am New York cut
There are quite a number to take note of, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD and they are layered from 1.1000 through to 1.1050. That sort of keeps a lock on things until we get to the ECB later at least. That especially the extremely large one at...
FX option expiries for 11 September 10am New York cut
There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1000 level. Again, if anything else, it will help to act as a bit of a floor to price action before rolling off later in the day. That said, just be wary that...
FX option expiries for 10 September 10am New York cut
There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.1000 level. If anything else, it will just act as a slight magnet or at most a floor for price action before rolling off in the session ahead. But given...
China to issue up to €2 bln in euro sovereign bonds in Paris on Sept 23
China's Finance Ministry: Will issue up to 2 bln euros of euro sovereign bonds in Paris on Sept 23. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.
FX option expiries for 6 September 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.1100 and 1.1150 levels. They are likely to help sandwich price action as traders wait on the US jobs report later in the day. And that is just that, markets are all...
FX option expiries for 5 September 10am New York cut
There are quite a number to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD and they are layered between 1.1060 through to 1.1100. The expiries are likely to help keep price action more contained in the session ahead, at least until we...
FX option expiries for 4 September 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for USD/CAD at the 1.3515 level. It isn't one that really holds any technical significance but the expiries there could act as a bit of a floor to price action, at least until we get to...
FX option expiries for 3 September 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.1050 mark. And that could perhaps limit price action and make things a bit stickier in the session ahead before we get to the US open. Similarly, the one for USD/CAD at the...
FX option expiries for 2 September 10am New York cut
There isn't anything major to take note of for today. And that is understandable, given a holiday for North American markets. So, technically the week only really kicks into gear tomorrow.We'll have jobs-related data from the US to work through during the week. So,...
September seasonals: The worst month on the calendar for the S&P 500
August was a wild ride. It's typically a quiet, summer month but it was anything but that this year as markets melted down early in the month only to post a full recovery in a remarkable turn.That's left some nice-looking monthly charts and a series of breakouts. The...
EURUSD Eyes 2023 Top After Quick Rally
EURUSD returns to positive trend after Powell confirms dovish policy adjustment Technical signals reflect weakening positive bias; next resistance could be at 1.1240-1.1274 EURUSD has had a great August so far, rising sharply from 1.0776 to nearly 1.1200 to mark its...
EUR/USD Outlook: Looks for Test of 2023 High After Limited Correction
EURUSD cracked 1.1200 barrier after Friday’s 0.75% rally (the biggest daily gain since Aug 2) and hit new 2024 high early Monday. Bulls remain firmly in play after strong advance in past two weeks and on track for the biggest monthly gain since November 2022, as...
Caution Creeps Back as Markets Eye Crucial Inflation Data in the Week
Traders appear to be stepping back from last Friday’s risk-on rally, showing more caution in the Asian session today. The mood in major indices is mixed; with Nikkei trading down by more than -1%, while HSI is showing gain of about 1%. This cautious sentiment is...
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/CHF’s retreat from 0.9579 extended lower last week but recovered slightly ahead of 0.9448 support. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, and further rally is in favor. On the upside, sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.9576) will pave the way back to...
EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/AUD gyrated lower last week despite weak downside momentum. On the downside, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.6432) will argue that rise from 1.5996 has completed. Deeper fall would then be seen back to this support. Nevertheless, strong rebound from...
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/GBP’s steep decline last week suggest that rebound from 0.8382 has completed 0.8624 already, after rejection by 0.8643 resistance. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for retesting 0.8382 low. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend. On the...
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/JPY stayed in sideway trading below 163.86 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 163.86 will target 61.8% retracement of 175.41 to 154.40 at 167.38, as the second leg of the corrective pattern from...
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/JPY stayed in sideway trading below 191.99 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, above 191.99 will target 61.8% retracement of 208.09 to 180.00 at 197.35, as the second leg of the corrective pattern from...
AUD/USD Weekly Report – Action Forex
AUD/USD’s rally continued last week despite interim retreat. Initial bias is on the upside this week with focus on 0.6798 resistance. Firm break there will extend the rally from 0.6348 to 0.6870 resistance next. On the downside, below 0.6696 support turn bias to the...
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CHF’s extended decline last week suggests that rebound from 0.8431 has completed at 0.8747, after rejection by 38.2% retracement of 0.9223 to 0.8431 at 0.8734. Initial bias is on the downside this week for retesting 0.8431 support first. Firm break there will...
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/USD’s rally accelerated higher last week and the break of 1.3141 resistance confirms larger up trend resumption. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 100% projection of 1.2298 to 1.3043 from 1.2664 at 1.3409. On the downside, below 1.3075 minor support...
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/USD’s rally continued last week and the strong break of 1.1138 resistance argues that larger up trend may be resuming. Initial bias is on the upside this week for t 161.8% projection of 1.0665 to 1.0947 from 1.0776 at 1.1232, and then 1.1274 high. On the downside,...
Dollar at Risk of Resuming Medium-Term Downtrend as Fed Confirms Rate Cuts Ahead
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s highly anticipated speech at Jackson Hole didn’t disappoint market participants, as he clearly signaled that the time for easing monetary policy has arrived. This declaration provided a notable boost to US stock markets on Friday, with major...
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/JPY gyrated lower last week even though momentum is a bit unconvincing. Still, the development suggests that rebound from 141.67 has completed at 149.35, after rejection by 38.2% retracement of 161.94 to 141.67 at 149.41. Initial bias is on the downside this week...
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CAD’s steep decline and strong break of 1.3588 support argues that while rise from 1.3176 has completed already. Fall from 1.3946 is seen as another falling leg inside medium term range pattern. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 1.3477 support. Firm...
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: The Time Has Come for Policy to Adjust
Summary United States: Homes Out of Range Chair Powell delivered a distinctively dovish speech this week at Jackson Hole. Elsewhere, a slew of housing data revealed that, although green shoots are sprouting, affordability issues continue to constrain the housing...
The Weekly Bottom Line: Fed Chair Powell Endorses September Rate Cut
U.S. Highlights Minutes from the July 30-31 FOMC meeting as well as Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole showed a clear commitment that the FOMC will start cutting rates in September. The Fed is likely to start slow, cutting by 25 basis points next month. But any...
Markets Weekly Outlook – Powell Delivers with Nvidia Earnings, PCE Data Next
Fed Chair Powell signals policy adjustments are needed, emphasizing concerns about labor market weakness. The impact of Powell’s remarks on the FX space saw GBP/USD and EUR/USD reach new highs. Markets are pricing in a 34.5% chance of a 50 bps cut and 65.5% of a 25...
Summary 8/26 – 8/30
Monday, Aug 26, 2024 Tuesday, Aug 27, 2024 Wednesday, Aug 28, 2024 Thursday, Aug 29, 2024 Friday, Aug 30, 2024 The post Summary 8/26 – 8/30 appeared first on Action Forex.
USDCAD Still Fights With 1.3600
USDCAD repeatedly tests the 200-day SMA Momentum oscillators are mixed USDCAD has been battling with the 1.3600 round number and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) over the last couple of days. A successful break beneath these critical levels could open the way...
Canada’s retail sales falls -0.3% mom in Jun, to bounce back 0.6% mom in Jul
Canada’s retail sales value fell -0.3% mom to CAD 65.7B in June, matched expectations. Sales were down in four of nine subsectors and were led by decreases at motor vehicle and parts dealers. In volume terms, retail sales increased 0.1% mom. Excluding gasoline...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1085; (P) 1.1125; (R1) 1.1152; More…. EUR/USD is staying in consolidation below 1.1173 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Further rally is expected as long as 1.1046 resistance turned support holds. Above 1.1173 will target 161.8%...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3069; (P) 1.3100; (R1) 1.3122; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral first with 4H MACD crossed below signal line. On the upside, decisive break of 61.8% projection of 1.2298 to 1.3043 from 1.2664 at 1.3124 and 1.3141 resistance will...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8496; (P) 0.8515; (R1) 0.8541; More….. Intraday bias in USD/CHF Is turned neutral first with current recovery. While stronger rise cannot be ruled out, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.8747 resistance holds. Below 0.8488 will target...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets At a hearing before Parliament this morning, BoJ governor Ueda had a balanced but after all clear message. The BoJ has started policy normalization and intends to further walk that path if inflation and growth continue to develop in line with the banks’...
Week Ahead – PCE Inflation Eyed as Fed Lays Groundwork for September Cut
Focus to stay on the Fed as PCE inflation to be week’s main highlight Eurozone inflation data to be crucial for ECB rate cut hopes Australian and Tokyo CPI, plus Canadian GDP also on the agenda Will PCE inflation disappoint dovish expectations? The Fed’s...
Canadian Q2 GDP Report to Reveal More Softness in the Economy
Canada’s GDP report next week is expected to show further weakening in the Canadian economy. We expect a 1.4% (annualized rate) increase in GDP in Q2 – below Statistics Canada’s 2% preliminary estimate a month ago, and marking the 7th of the last 8 quarters of...
Weekly Focus – More Soft Manufacturing Signals
Markets remained calm this week with risk sentiment improving further. Stock markets continued to trade higher taking S&P500 back to the recent highs reached in mid-July and cyclical metal prices increased as well. Bond yields drifted moderately lower in the US...
Fed’s Powell hints at rate cuts: ‘Time has come’ as labor market concerns grow
In his highly anticipated Jackson Hole speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell made it clear that “the time has come” for a shift towards monetary easing. Although he did not specify the exact timing or pace of rate cuts, Powell highlighted the increasing need to support the...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.19; (P) 145.55; (R1) 146.63; More… Outlook in USD/JPY is unchanged and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 144.44 temporary low will reaffirm the case that rebound form 141.67 has completed, and bring retest of this low. On...
Gold (XAU/USD) Retests $2500/oz Ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole Remarks
Gold prices retest $2500/oz ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. Gold’s rebound in the European session and technical analysis suggest bullish momentum. September rate cuts likely already priced in. What impact will Powell’s remarks have? Gold prices are...
Calm Before the Speech: Markets Steady Ahead of Powell
Trading in the forex markets remains muted as investors hold their positions ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s highly anticipated speech at Jackson Hole. Market participants are keenly focused on any signals regarding the Fed’s plans for monetary policy easing,...
Yen Edges Higher on BoJ’s Ueda Hawkish Remarks
The Japanese yen is in positive territory on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 146.06, down 0.14% on the day. The yen has looked sharp this week, gaining 1% against the struggling US dollar. Japan’s Core CPI rises to 2.7% Japan’s core CPI rose...
Gold Outlook: Near Term Tone Firmed Ahead of Key Event – Powell’s Speech in Jackson Hole
Gold regained traction and bounced on Friday, reversing so far around a half on Thursday’s 1.1% drop, which broke and closed below psychological $2500 level. Top of the former range at $2480 zone performed as solid support and contained dip, which also closed above...
GBPUSD: Bullish Extension or Deeper Correction? Key Liquidity Zones
Bearish Corrective Scenario: Sell positions below 1.3130 with TP1 at 1.3103. Consider TP2: 1.3090, TP3: 1.3076, and TP4: 1.3057 only after a decisive break. Use a stop-loss (S.L.) above 1.3160 or at least 1% of account equity for intraday trades. Bullish Scenario: Buy...
AUD/USD Sees Rebound: Weak US Dollar and RBA’s Steady Stance Support Strength
AUD/USD is finding its footing, currently stabilising at around 0.6725, as the US dollar weakens further in anticipation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. Investors are watching closely for cues on future policy shifts, influencing...
Market Analysis: GBP/USD Surges, USD/CAD Drops To Support
GBP/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.2920 zone. USD/CAD declined and now consolidates below the 1.3640 level. Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today The British Pound is eyeing more gains above the 1.3130 resistance. There is a connecting...
Analysis of GBP/USD: The Pair Approaches 2023 High
Yesterday, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for both the UK and the US were released. According to ForexFactory, the UK figures were as follows: → Flash Manufacturing PMI: actual = 52.5, forecast = 52.1; previous = 52.1; → Flash Services PMI: actual = 53.3,...
US 100 Index Sits at Key Level
US 100 index exhibits bearish tendencies but stabilizes near 50-SMA Technical risk is two-sided as Powell prepares for his Jackson hole speech( 14:00 GMT) Bulls hope for a close above 19,880; bears need a drop below 19,350 The US 100 stock index came under pressure on...
GBPJPY’s Recovery Stalls at 200-day SMA
GBPJPY attempts to recover from recent 8-month low But the rebound falters after testing 200-day SMA RSI and MACD remain tilted to the bearish side GBPJPY experienced a vast selloff in July, dropping from a 16-year peak of 208.10 to as low as 180.07 on August 5, which...
Buckle Up: Markets Brace for Fed Powell’s Jackson Hole Remarks
In the calm before what could be a stormy session, forex markets remained exceptionally quiet during Asian trading. Dollar managed a slight recovery overnight, bolstered by pullback in US equities, but the upward momentum has been notably weak. Traders are now...
FX option expiries for 23 August 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1100 level again. Similar to yesterday, the expiries are likely to help lock price action from falling off too much in the session ahead. That at least until we get to...
ECB minutes highlight September as ideal time for policy re-evaluation
ECB’s July meeting accounts revealed that the upcoming September meeting is “widely seen as a good time to re-evaluate the level of monetary policy restriction,” with members emphasizing the importance of approaching that meeting with an “open mind.” The...
EUR/GBP Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8502; (P) 0.8524; (R1) 0.8538; More…. EUR/GBP’s fall from 0.8624 resumed by breaking through 0.8507 temporary low as well as 55 D EMA (now at 0.8498. Intraday bias is back on the downs for 61.8% retracement of 0.8382 to 0.8624 at 0.8474. Firm...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1108; (P) 1.1141; (R1) 1.1183; More…. A temporary top is in place in EUR/USD with 4H MACD crossed below signal line. Intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidations first. But further rally is expected as long as 1.1046 resistance turned...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3028; (P) 1.3074; (R1) 1.3137; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Decisive break of r 61.8% projection of 1.2298 to 1.3043 from 1.2664 at 1.3124, which is close to 1.3141 high, will confirm larger up trend...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets European data today managed to temporarily steal attention away from the US. August PMI figures showed EMU business activity rising at a faster pace, but there’s more than meets the eye. The composite PMI ticked up to 51.2 (3-month high) whereas consensus...
Gold Struggles After Reaching New Highs
Gold started the week with a decisive renewal of all-time highs, reaching the maximum spot price of $2531 per troy ounce. However, the bulls failed to seize the initiative finally, and on Thursday, gold lost more than 1%, falling back to the depths of the upward trend...
NZ Dollar Slips Ahead of Retail Sales, Powell’s Speech
The New Zealand dollar is drifting on Thursday. In the North American session, NZD/USD has fallen to 0.6132 at the time of writing, down 0.41% on the day. The New Zealand dollar continues to have its way with its US counterpart and has soared 4% since July 29. New...
Japanese Yen Price Action Ideas: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY
The Japanese Yen has seen significant volatility in recent weeks, influenced by factors like US Dollar recovery and mixed Japanese economic data. USD/JPY shows potential for retesting the 150.00 level, with resistance at 146.37 and support around 143.60. EUR/JPY...
Fed’s Harker and Collins signal support for gradual rate cuts
Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Boston Fed President Susan Collins have both indicated their support for beginning a gradual reduction in interest rates, assuming no unexpected changes in economic data. Harker emphasized that the process should start...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8487; (P) 0.8525; (R1) 0.8554; More….. Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays on the downside for the moment. Fall from 0.8747 is in progress for retesting 0.8431. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 0.9223 towards 0.8332 low. On the upside,...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.19; (P) 145.55; (R1) 146.63; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with 4H MACD crossed above signal line. The corrective structure of the fall from 149.35 dampened the original bearish view that rebound from 141.67 has completed. On...
US PMI composite falls to 54.1, still points to over 2% annualized GDP growth in Q3
In August, US PMI Manufacturing dropped to 48.0, the lowest in eight months, down from 49.6 in July. In contrast, PMI Services index showed a slight increase, rising from 55.0 to 55.2. PMI Composite index also declined, falling from 54.3 to 54.1, a four-month low....
Sterling Surges on Strong PMI Data, BoE Likely to Hold Off on Rate Cuts Amid Resilient Growth
Sterling surged broadly today, driven by stronger-than-expected PMI data indicating that the UK economy is on track for reasonably solid growth in the third quarter. This positive economic outlook comes at a time when inflationary pressures are easing, which would...
US initial jobless claims falls rises to 232k
US initial jobless claims rose 4k to 232k in the week ending August 17, matched expectations. Four-week moving average of initial claims fell -750 to 236k. Continuing claims rose 4k to 1863k in the week ending August 10, highest since November 27, 2021. Four-week...
Fed’s Schmid needs to see a bit more data before acting on rate cut
In a Bloomberg TV interview recorded on Wednesday and aired Thursday, Kansas City Fed Bank President Jeff Schmid emphasized the importance of waiting for additional economic data before making any decisions on rate cuts. “It makes sense for me to really look at some...
(ECB) Monetary policy accounts – Action Forex
Account of the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank held in Frankfurt am Main on Wednesday and Thursday, 17-18 July 2024 22 August 2024 1. Review of financial, economic and monetary developments and policy options Financial...
Germany’s PMI composite falls to 48.5, risk of another recession growing
Germany’s PMI data for August paints a bleak picture, with both the manufacturing and services sectors underperforming. PMI Manufacturing dropped from 43.2 to 42.1, falling short of the expected 43.5. PMI Services also declined, falling from 52.5 to 51.4, below the...
Eurozone PMI composite rises to 51.2, easing cost pressures strengthens case for ECB Sep cut
Eurozone PMI Manufacturing fell slightly from 45.8 to 45.6 in August, an 8-month low and below expectations of 46.1. In contrast, PMI Services showed a strong performance, rising from 51.9 to 53.3, surpassing the expected 52.2. This divergence led to a modest increase...
Crypto Tug of War – Action Forex
Market picture The crypto market gained 1.7% in the last 24 hours to reach $2.14 trillion, continuing to test August’s resistance. Bitcoin rose 2.6%, while Ethereum gained 1.2%. The battle for a 10th position in the CoinMarketCap has intensified: Tron’s 5.5% drop to a...
JP 225 Index: Is There More Upside on the Horizon?
JP 225 index reclaims August’s loss Short-term risk is on the positive side Will the bulls breach the 38,600-39,950 area too? Japan’s 225 stock index (cash) is trading with soft positive momentum on Thursday for the second consecutive day, hitting a three-week high of...
UK PMI data shows robust growth, easing inflation opens door for BoE rate cuts
UK’s PMI data for August showed positive momentum across both the manufacturing and services sectors. PMI Manufacturing edged up from 52.1 to 52.5, surpassing expectations of 52.2 and marking a 26-month high. PMI Services also rose from 52.5 to 53.3, above the...
WTI Futures Fall to a 7-Month Low
WTI futures drop to their lowest level since January 17 Momentum indicators are heavily tilted to bearish side WTI oil futures (October delivery) have been in a steady retreat following their rejection at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) in mid-August. On...
FX option expiries for 22 August 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.However, given the overarching theme in markets this week i.e. dollar weakness, the expiries for EUR/USD at the 1.1100 level may not matter too much. The pair is looking to secure a breakout as noted...
Dollar Continues to Slide as FOMC Minutes Confirm September Rate Cut Likely
Dollar extended its broad decline overnight following release of FOMC minutes, which confirmed that a vast majority of Fed members see a rate cut in September as appropriate. However, the market reaction was relatively muted, as this outcome has already been largely...
ECB’s Panetta: End of monetary restriction has already begun
ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta indicated today that the central has entered entering a phase of monetary easing following the rate cut in June. Speaking at an event, Panetta remarked, “The end of monetary restriction has already begun,” adding that...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1090; (P) 1.1112; (R1) 1.1151; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Firm break of 1.1138 resistance will target 161.8% projection of 1.0665 to 1.0947 from 1.0776 at 1.1232. On the downside, below 1.1071 minor...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2989; (P) 1.3020; (R1) 1.3067; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside with focus on 1.3043 resistance. Decisive break there will resume whole rally from 1.2998 to 61.8% projection of 1.2298 to 1.3043 from 1.2664 at 1.3124, which is...
USD/CHF Mid-Days Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8507; (P) 0.8572; (R1) 0.8605; More….. USD/CHF’s fall from 0.8747 is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the downside for retesting 0.8431. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 0.9223 towards 0.8332. On the upside, above...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets The ‘waiting game’ continued today in Europe and at the onset of the US trading session, counting down in the first place to today’s BLS payrolls revisions and to the Minutes of the Fed July 31 policy meeting later today. Even the $16 bn sale of 20-y US...
Yen Heads for a New Round of Growth
Since the end of last week, the Yen has regained ground against the Dollar and the Euro in what looks like a new round of appreciation. So far, this seems to be an independent theme for the Yen’s rise, without any deterioration in sentiment in the equity and bond...
US job growth revised down by -818k in largest payroll adjustment dince 2009
According to a report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the economy created -818k fewer jobs than initially reported in the 12-month period through March 2024. This significant revision means that actual job growth was nearly -30% less than the originally...
Soft-Landing, or No Soft-Landing, That Is the Question: Part III
Part III: A New Toolkit To Predict Soft-Landings, Stagflation and Recessions Summary In the third installment of this series, we introduce a probit framework to generate four-quarter-out probabilities of three scenarios: recession, stagflation and soft-landing....
Bitcoins (BTC/USD) Steady Range: Mt Gox Impact and Future Outlook
Bitcoin prices are currently range-bound, the range between 56,561 and 61,750 is keeping both buyers and sellers cautious. Mt. Gox moved 13,265 Bitcoins totaling and estimated $780 million. The first major move by the bankrupt exchange since July 30. According to...
EUR/USD Outlook: Bulls Taking a Breather Under New 2024 High, Eye Fresh Signals from Fed
EURUSD reduced speed after steep rally in past three days which hit new 2024 top (1.1132) just ticks ahead of Dec 2023 top (1.1139). The single currency continues to benefit from risk appetite and weak dollar on Fed rate cut expectations, with release of FOMC minutes...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.53; (P) 145.94; (R1) 146.67; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the downside for the moment. Rebound from 141.67 could have completed at 149.35 after rejection by 38.2% retracement of 161.94 to 141.67 at 149.41. Deeper fall would...
GBP/USD Hits 1-Month High, UK PMIs Next
The British pound is showing limited movement on Wednesday, after a four-day rally in which it surged 1.7% against the retreating US dollar. GBP/USD is trading at 1.3047 in the North American session at the time of writing, up 0.1% on the day. All eyes on Jerome...
Dollar Continues to Struggle Amid Market Lull
The forex markets are experiencing a lull today, with little movement in the absence of significant economic releases during European and early US sessions. The much-discussed non-farm payroll revision and the release of FOMC minutes later today are unlikely to spark...
WTI Outlook: Bears Taking a Breather After the Latest Acceleration
Bears are taking a breather after the latest bearish acceleration in past three days (oil price was down 5%) deflated by easing tensions in the Middle East and rise in US crude stocks (API report). Oversold daily studies and Tenkan-Kijun-sen turned sideways,...
Euro Drifting as Investors Eye Fed Minutes
The euro is calm on Wednesday after an impressive 3-day rally which saw EUR/USD jump 1.4%. Will the upswing continue? In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1220 at the time of writing, down 0.08% on the day. ECB likely to lower rates in September despite...
EURUSD Bulls Stay in Charge
EURUSD extends rally, hits 1.1130 But oscillators point to fading momentum A setback may be possible before the next leg north EURUSD has been in a steady rally since August 15, when it hit support at 1.0950, and it is currently testing the key resistance zone of...
Gold Bulls May Rest after Record High
Gold pulls below record high; might give up more ground Market trend stays positive as long as price holds above 2,463 Gold lost momentum after unlocking an all-time high of 2,531 on Tuesday near the rising constraining line drawn from July’s low, but it maintained...
US Dollar Extends Losses, Gold Shines
There was no major news on the wire to trigger the minor selloff in global equities, so it was nothing else than a correction after a long rally following an ugly meltdown. As such, the S&P500 and Nasdaq were slightly down, by around 0.20% each, the European Stoxx...
Payrolls Revision Flagged as Potential Gamechanger
Markets The recent comeback momentum on US stock markets stalled yesterday with main US benchmarks suffering minor losses (-0.25%) following an astonishing rally over the past two weeks. Other directional trades continued. US Treasuries outperformed German Bunds with...
USDJPY Rises But Still in Negative Territory
USDJPY remains below 200-day SMA and uptrend line RSI ticks higher reflecting the latest move USDJPY is gaining some ground after three consecutive red days and losing around 3% from the 149.50 resistance level. The market has been trading beneath the long-term...
NZDUSD Hits Fresh 2-month High
NZDUSD stages a V-shaped recovery from 2024 low The pair jumps above 200-day SMA to its highest since June 14 Oscillators improve notably, suggesting increasing bullish bias NZDUSD has been steadily regaining ground since the beginning of the month after finding its...
XAU/USD Outlook: Gold Price Consolidating Under New Record High, Ahead FOMC Minutes
Gold keeps firm tone and consolidating under new record high ($2531) posted on Tuesday, with third consecutive daily close above $2500 level, pointing to clear break. The yellow metal holds in a steep multi-month uptrend and has registered gains of nearly 22% since...
FX option expiries for 21 August 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1100 level. There has been expiries here all through the week and the ones today will still have some slight influence on price action. For one, it could act as a bit...
Dollar Stays Pressured, NFP Revisions and FOMC Minutes Unlikely Change Its Course
Dollar remains under broad-based selling pressure, with markets likely to keep this trend until Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivers his speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. While today’s events, including the non-farm payroll revision and the release of FOMC...
Australian Dollar’s Rally Runs Out of Steam
The Australian dollar has steadied after pummeling the US dollar over the past two sessions. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6729 in the European session, down 0.04% on the day at the time of writing. RBA minutes: Rates will remain steady The RBA minutes from the meeting...
Brent Crude – Oil Slides Into Key Support as Geopolitical Risk Takes a Backseat
Brent crude oil prices continue to fall amidst rumors of a Middle East deal and increased production in Libya. US crude stockpiles are expected to have decreased, and insights from the Jackson Hole symposium could impact oil prices. Technicals point to a key support...
Why Do Oil Prices Post Notable Losses?
Oil prices have decreased lately as a result of various crucial factors Technical Outlook confirms bearish structure Global economic concerns The global economy is encountering substantial difficulties, especially in prominent economies such as China and Europe....
EUR/USD Holds Near Seven-Month High Amid Speculation on Fed Rate Cuts
Euro/dollar maintains its position close to a seven-month peak, trading at 1.1077 on Tuesday. The US dollar’s weakening continues, largely driven by market expectations of an imminent interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve next month. Attention is also geared...
Canada’s CPI slows to 2.5% in Jul, CPI common down to 2.2%
Canada’s CPI slowed to 2.5% yoy in July, down from 2.7% yoy in June, aligning with market expectations. This marks the slowest pace of inflation since March 2021. According to Statistics Canada, the deceleration in headline inflation was broad-based, with lower prices...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.17; (P) 146.62; (R1) 148.04; More… As noted before, USD/JPY’s rebound from 141.67 could have completed at 149.35 after rejection by 38.2% retracement of 161.94 to 141.67 at 149.41. Intraday bias stays mildly on the downside for retesting 141.67...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8604; (P) 0.8641; (R1) 0.8666; More….. USD/CHF’s break of 0.8616 support should indicate that rebound from 0.8431 has completed at 0.8747, after rejection by 38.2% retracement of 0.9223 to 0.8431 at 0.8734. Intraday bias is back on the downside...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2951; (P) 1.2974; (R1) 1.3013; More… GBP/USD’s rally from 1.2664 continues today and intraday bias stays on the upside for retesting 1.3043. Firm break there will resume whole rally from 1.2998 to 61.8% projection of 1.2298 to 1.3043 from 1.2664...
USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3614; (P) 1.3650; (R1) 1.3670; More… USD/CAD’s fall from 1.3946 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside for 1.3588 structural support. Strong support could be seen from there to bring reversal. On the upside, above 1.3684 will...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Markets took a breather today during the European session. The dollar (DXY) yesterday closed below 102 for the first time since early January and remains stuck there. The greenback even extends losses as US investors enter the market. European stock markets...
Dollar on the Edge – Action Forex
The US dollar has fallen to its lowest levels of the year, losing more than 2.3% from its August peak and around 4% since early July as expectations of a Fed rate cut in September began to be priced in. The dollar index has retreated to 101.7, reflecting growing...
Canadian Inflation Eases Further Towards BoC’s Target
Headline CPI inflation edged lower in July to 2.5% year-on-year (y/y), right on consensus expectations. This was the lowest reading since March 2021. The deceleration was driven by base year effects (lower price growth relative to last July) for items like travel...
Canadian Dollar Slips as CPI Solidifies Case for BoC Sep Cut, Gold Marches On
Canadian Dollar has come under broad pressure in the early US session following the release of the latest inflation data, which showed a further slowdown in inflation, with headline CPI fell to a 40-month low and core measures also easing. This set of data has...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1043; (P) 1.1064; (R1) 1.1107; More….. Intraday bias in EURUSD remains on the upside for the moment. Current rise should target 1.1138 resistance, and then 161.8% projection of 1.0665 to 1.0947 from 1.0776 at 1.1232. On the downside, below 1.1029...
Bundesbank expects temporary inflation rise, sees modest economic expansion ahead
In its latest monthly report, Bundesbank cautioned that inflation is expected to “temporarily increase” towards the end of the year. This uptick is anticipated as the currently negative inflation rates for energy turn positive, and the depressed profit margins for...
The Sweet Soft-Landing Spot – Action Forex
The week kicked off on a positive note on expectation that when Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday, he will deliver a strong hint that the rate cuts will begin soon in the US. How soon ? Probably in September? By how...
A Softer Dollar Remains the Way to Go
Market Commentary Markets Last week’s directional moves on key markets were extended yesterday in absence of any guidance coming from eco data or central bankers. Core bond yields fail to recover from the early August setback with daily changes in the US ranging...
GBPUSD Awaits Strong Resistance Near 1-Year High
GBPUSD’s rebound off 200-day SMA still holds Stochastic in overbought area RSI ticks south above 50 level GBPUSD continues last week’s rebound off the 200-day SMA and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level of the up leg from 1.2300 to 1.3045 at 1.2670, but with some...
Pound Near July Highs: What Could Trigger a Breakout?
The slowdown in U.S. inflation and a cooling labour market have rekindled investor confidence that the Federal Reserve may soon begin cutting interest rates. As bearish sentiment towards the dollar dominates the market, key currency pairs have approached critical...
As Crypto Market Tests Resistance, Solana Eyes Support
The cryptocurrency market is once again testing the important $2.15 trillion milestone, adding almost 4% in the last 24 hours. Selling pressure has been building near this level since early August. Now, thanks to the impressive recovery in stock indices,...
Eurozone CPI finalized at 2.6% in Jul, core CPI at 2.9%
Eurozone CPI was finalized at 2.6% yoy in July, up from June’s 2.5% yoy. CPI Core (ex-energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) was finalized at 2.9% yoy, unchanged from June’s reading. The highest contribution to the annual inflation rate came from services (+1.82...
EURJPY’s Rebound Falters Ahead of 200-SMA
EURJPY recovers from its 2024 low posted on August 6 But the rebound stumbles before testing 200-day SMA Oscillators are skewed to the downside EURJPY experienced a vast selloff in July, dropping from a 32-year peak of 175.41 to as low as 154.34 on August 6, which is...
FX option expiries for 20 August 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1100 level. The pair also has a large set of expiries at 1.1000 but that should not factor much into play given the dollar weakness so far this week. As such, the ones...
Dollar Weakens Further on Risk-On Mood, Canadian CPI Takes Center Stage
Dollar continued its decline overnight as risk-on sentiment prevailed, with S&P 500 and NASDAQ notching their eighth consecutive positive session. Investor optimism has been buoyed by recent economic data suggesting that the US economy is on track for a soft...
Dollar Index Outlook: Remains in Defensive on Growing Expectations for Dovish Fed’s Policy View
The dollar index remains firmly in red in early Monday trading, and extends Friday’s 0.93% drop, to breach key support at 101.94 (Aug 5 low, the lowest in eight months). The dollar was weaker across the board on renewed risk mode and growing expectations on more...
USD/JPY Outlook: Japanese Yen Regains Traction vs Dollar on Renewed Expectations for Dovish Fed
USDJPY dips further on Monday, adding to signals that corrective phase off 141.68 (Aug 5 spike low) is likely over. Upleg from 141.68 was repeatedly capped at pivotal Fibo barrier at 149.36 (38.2% retracement of 161.80/141.68) with subsequent weakness being sparked by...
GBP/USD Mid-Day – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2879; (P) 1.2913; (R1) 1.2979; More… GBP/USD’s rise from 1.2664 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside for retesting 1.3043 high. Firm break there will resume whole rise from 1.2998 to 61.8% projection of 1.2298 to 1.3043 from...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0942; (P) 1.0980; (R1) 1.1010; More….. Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for 100% projection of 1.0665 to 1.0947 from 1.0776 at 1.1058. Decisive break there could prompt upside acceleration through 1.1138 resistance to 161.8%...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8636; (P) 0.8685; (R1) 0.8710; More….. Outlook in USD/CHF remains unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral for now. On the downside, break of 0.8616 support will indicate rejection by 38.2% retracement of 0.9223 to 0.8431 at 0.8734, and turn bias...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.00; (P) 148.20; (R1) 148.83; More… USD/JPY’s rebound from 141.67 could have completed after rejection by 38.2% retracement of 161.94 to 141.67 at 149.41. Intraday bias remains on the downside for retesting 141.67 low. Firm break there will...
New Zealand Dollar Extends Gains as Services Index Rises
The New Zealand dollar wrapped up a fourth consecutive winning week and is in positive territory on Monday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6076, up 0.37% in the European session at the time of writing. New Zealand PSI pace of contraction eases The New Zealand Performance of...
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets Markets took a slow start to the new trading week which looks more enticing later on. In the absence of high profile headlines today, softer yields and a weaker dollar initially proved the to be the path of least resistance, even as the momentum of this trade...
BTCUSD Completes Death Cross – Action Forex
BTCUSD trades sideways in the past few sessions Sentiment deteriorates after multiple rejections at 50-day SMA Momentum indicators are skewed to the downside BTCUSD (Bitcoin) has been losing ground in August, experiencing a strong selloff on the back of a downbeat...
AUD/USD Outlook: Continues to Trend Higher Ahead of FOMC Minutes, Powell’s Speech in Jackson Hole
AUDUSD rose to the highest levels in almost one month on Monday, in extension of almost 0.9% daily advance on Friday and 1.5% gains last week The pair enters the third consecutive week of strong gains, with the latest acceleration being boosted by revived risk...
News of the Week (August 19— August 23): GBPCAD Detailed Analysis
Keep your eyes on GBPCAD—new trading prospects are emerging! The GBPCAD currency pair, representing the exchange rate between the British pound and the Canadian dollar, is the most critical indicator of economic interaction between the UK and Canada. The Canadian...
Could Eurozone PMI Surveys Cement September ECB Rate Cut?
Markets are preparing for the Jackson Hole Symposium Eurozone data supports another ECB rate cut PMI surveys for the euro area will be published on Thursday Euro remains on the back foot against the pound The Jackson Hole gathering to break the summer lull Whilst ECB...
Dollar Remains Under Broad Pressure, Yen Maintains Strength
Dollar continues to face broad-based selling pressure as the markets move into US session. Fed Governor Christopher Waller is set to speak, but he is expected to maintain his consistent view that Fed is nearing a rate cut while the economy remains on track for soft...
Gold Price Surpasses $2500 for the First Time
We noted bullish sentiment in the gold market six days ago: → The price is moving within an ascending channel (shown in blue); → Bulls may attempt to set a historic record amid the release of economic news. As today’s XAU/USD chart shows, the gold price has risen...
Gold (XAU/USD) Eyes Consolidation Above $2500/oz. Will Bulls Hold the Line?
Gold prices surpassed the $2500/oz level on Friday despite a decrease in the likelihood of a 50 bps cut at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. The rally in gold prices is attributed to dovish remarks by Federal Reserve policymakers and concerns over rising...
Gold (XAU/USD) Nears Record Highs Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty and Fed Speculations
The price of gold continues its impressive ascent, balancing around $2500 per troy ounce early this week, hovering near record peaks. The primary catalyst driving this rally is the intensified demand for safe-haven assets amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. The...
Fed’s Kashkari: Appropriate to discuss rate cut in September
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari indicated that Fed’s focus is increasingly shifting toward concerns in the labor market, moving away from the inflation side of its dual mandate. In an interview with WSI, Kashkari emphasized that “the balance of risks has...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 190.26; (P) 191.19; (R1) 191.99; More… Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 191.99 will target 61.8% retracement of 208.09 to 180.00 at 197.35, as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 208.09. On the...
US 500 Index Slips After 10% Recovery
US 500 index rises above long-term uptrend line 200-day SMA still holds well Stochastic and RSI indicate overstretched market The US 500 cash index recovered by almost 10% from the bearish wave that started from the all-time high of 5,673.39 and is currently returning...
EUR/USD Outlook: Break Above 1.1000 Adds to Bullish Outlook, Limited Dips Should Be Anticipated
EURUSD keeps firm tone at the start of the week and extends gains above psychological 1.10 barrier after registering a weekly close above this level for the first time since late December. Bulls also cleared a Fibo resistance at 1.1012 (76.4% retracement of...
Crypto Market Attracts Money, But Prices Don’t Rise
Market Picture On Monday morning, the crypto market capitalisation stood at $2.07 trillion, up slightly from $2.05 trillion a week earlier. In the previous two weeks, the market failed to rally above the $2.15 trillion level, which has become a local resistance. The...
Gold Surges to Fresh Record High
Gold posts new all-time high on Monday But oscillators haven’t reached overbought conditions The divergence suggests that the advance may extend further Gold has been on the rise in the past couple of sessions, storming above the 2,500 psychological mark to a fresh...
Yen Gains Ground as Dollar Weakens, Focus on Fed Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech This Week
Yen is showing broad-based strength in today’s Asian session, particularly against the generally weakening Dollar. This move has also put pressure on the Nikkei, which turned lower as Yen gained momentum. While there’s no clear catalyst for these movements, it appears...
FX option expiries for 19 August 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for AUD/USD at the 0.6675 level. It isn't one that is technically significant but it could anchor gains for a bit before rolling off later in the day. The pair is in a breakout mood amid a...
The Weekly Bottom Line: Inching Towards a Pivot
U.S. Highlights The July report for the Consumer Price Index showed headline inflation fell below 3% for the first time since March 2021. U.S. retail sales surpassed expectations in July, rising 1.0% month-on-month. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks during...
Markets Weekly Outlook – Gold Hits New ATH Ahead of Jackson Hole Symposium
Gold reaches a new all-time high as markets reassess rate cut expectations after evaluating resilient US data. The Jackson Hole Symposium will be a key event next week, with central bankers discussing strategies for growth and monetary policy. It’s a data-heavy week...
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/CHF’s rebound from 0.9209 extended to as high as 0.9579 last week before retreating. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first for some consolidations. Further rally is expected as long as 0.9448 support holds. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.9593) will...
EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/AUD’s correction from 1.7180 short term top continued last week, but downside is contained above 1.6474 support so far. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, and further rally is in favor. On the upside, above 1.6745 will argue that the pullback has...
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/GBP’s correction from 0.8624 extended lower last week after interim recovery. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 100% projection of 0.8624 to 0.8530 from 0.8591 at 0.8497, which is close to 55 D EMA (now at 0.8494). Strong support should be seen...
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/JPY’s rebound from 154.40 extended to 163.86 last week before forming a temporary top there. Initial bias is turned neutral this week for some consolidations. On the upside, break of 163.86 will target 61.8% retracement of 175.41 to 154.40 at 167.38, as the second...
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/JPY’s rebound from 180.00 extended to 191.99 last week before forming a temporary top there. Initial bias this week is turned neutral for consolidations first. Above 191.99 will target 61.8% retracement of 208.09 to 180.00 at 197.35, as the second leg of the...
AUD/USD Weekly Report – Action Forex
AUD/USD’s rally from 0.6348 extended higher last week and with late break of 0.6642 temporary top, initial bias is back on the upside this week. Further rise should be seen to 0.6798 resistance next. On the downside, below 0.6569 minor support will turn bias to the...
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CHF’s rebound from 0.8431 extended to 0.8747 last week, but failed to sustain above 38.2% retracement of 0.9223 to 0.8431 at 0.8734 and retreated. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, sustained break of 0.8734 will extend to 61.8%...
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/JPY’s rebound from 141.67 extended higher last week but failed to break through 38.2% retracement of 161.94 to 141.67 at 149.41 and retreated. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 146.06 minor support will suggest rejection by...
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/USD retreated after edging higher to 1.1046 last week but stayed in range above 1.0880 support. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations, and further rally is in favor. On the upside, firm break of 100% projection of 1.0665 to 1.0947 from 1.0776...
Markets Roar Back as Recession Fears Fade, Safe Havens Crumble
The past few weeks highlighted the volatility of global financial markets and how quickly investor sentiment can shift. The sharp selloff in US markets, driven by fears of an impending recession, now appears significantly overdone in light of last week’s robust...
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/USD’s strong rally last week indicates that correction from 1.3043 has completed at 1.2664 already ahead of 1.2612 support. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for retesting 1.3043. Firm break there will resume whole rise from 1.2998 to 61.8% projection...
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CAD’s fall from 1.3946 short term top extended lower last week, and with the late break of 1.3688 temporary low, initial bias is back on the downside, Deeper decline should be seen to 1.3588 support. On the upside, above 1.3737 minor resistance will turn intraday...
Summary 8/19 – 8/23
Monday, Aug 19, 2024 Tuesday, Aug 20, 2024 Wednesday, Aug 21, 2024 Thursday, Aug 22, 2024 Friday, Aug 23, 2024 The post Summary 8/19 – 8/23 appeared first on Action Forex.
Eco Data 8/19/24 – Action Forex
Eco Data 8/19/24 - Action Forex GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised 22:30 NZD Business NZ PSI Jul 40.2 23:50 JPY Machinery Orders M/M Jun 0.90% -3.20% GMT Ccy Events 22:30 NZD...
Eco Data 8/20/24
The post Eco Data 8/20/24 appeared first on Action Forex.
Eco Data 8/21/24
The post Eco Data 8/21/24 appeared first on Action Forex.
Eco Data 8/22/24
The post Eco Data 8/22/24 appeared first on Action Forex.
Eco Data 8/23/24
The post Eco Data 8/23/24 appeared first on Action Forex.
USD/CHF Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8666; (P) 0.8707; (R1) 0.8768; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside with focus on 38.2% retracement of 0.9223 to 0.8431 at 0.8734. Sustained break there will bring stronger rally to 61.8% retracement at 0.8920, even as a...
GBP/USD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2811; (P) 1.2841; (R1) 1.2884; More… GBP/USD’s rise from 1.2664 resumed after brief consolidations and intraday bias is back on the upside. As noted before, pullback from 1.3043 could have completed at 1.2664 already. Further rally should be seen...
USD/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.76; (P) 148.58; (R1) 150.09; More… Immediate focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 161.94 to 141.67 at 149.41. Decisive break there will bring stronger rally to 61.8% retracement at 154.19, even as a corrective move. On the downside, break of...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.76; (P) 148.58; (R1) 150.09; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral as it retreated after failing to break through 38.2% retracement of 161.94 to 141.67 at 149.41. On the downside, break of 146.06 minor support will suggest rejection...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8666; (P) 0.8707; (R1) 0.8768; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF is turned neutral first as it retreated after hitting 0.8747. On the upside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 0.9223 to 0.8431 at 0.8734 will extend the rebound from 0.8431 to...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0942; (P) 1.0980; (R1) 1.1010; More….. EUR/USD is staying in consolidation below 1.1046 and intraday bias remains neutral. Another rally is in favor as long as 1.0880 support holds. Firm break of 100% projection of 1.0665 to 1.0947 from 1.0776 at...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2811; (P) 1.2841; (R1) 1.2884; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside for retesting 1.3043 high. Decisive break there will resume whole rally from 1.2998 to 61.8% projection of 1.2298 to 1.3043 from 1.2664 at 1.3124, which is close...
Weekly Focus – From Fear of Inflation to Fear of Slowdown
Over the summer, we have seen big moves in financial markets largely reflecting conflicting views of the US economy. During the first half of 2024, markets were often driven by concerns about persistently high US inflation and the implication that it would be...
Week Ahead – Jackson Hole and PMIs Enter the Spotlight
As recession fears ease, investors lock gaze on Jackson Hole Eurozone and UK PMIs to affect ECB and BoE expectations Canadian inflation could back third consecutive BoC cut Japan’s Nationwide CPI data also on the agenda Jackson Hole to test overly dovish Fed cut bets...
XAUUSD: Formation of Bullish Pattern: Signs of Trend Continuation
Bearish Scenario: Sell positions below 2470 with TP1: 2463, TP2: 2460, TP3: 2456 intraday, with a stop loss above 2473 or at least 1% of the account capital. Bullish Scenario: Buy positions after a pullback above 2460 with TP1: 2470, TP2: 2480, and TP3: 2490 in...
Yen and Swiss Franc Recover as Benchmark Yields Ease
As the US session gets underway, both Yen and Swiss Franc are beginning to recover, aided by the slight pullback in benchmark Treasury yields in the US and Europe. This recovery comes after a tough week for the two safe-haven currencies, which have been the worst...
AUD/USD Climbs as RBA Maintains Firm Stance on Interest Rates
The Australian dollar (AUD) is witnessing a rise against the US dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day, reaching 0.6629. This upward movement is bolstered by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) current policy stance. RBA Governor Michelle Bullock emphasized...
Euro Edges Higher, US Dollar Under Pressure
The euro has edged higher on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0994, up 0.21% on the day at the time of writing. The US dollar is under pressure and the euro rose as much as 1.2% this week before paring about half of those gains. On Wednesday,...
New Zealand Dollar Stems Slide
The New Zealand dollar has rebounded on Friday after a 1.4% slide over the past two days. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6017, up 0.70% in the European session at the time of writing. Solid US numbers raises risk appetite Exactly two weeks ago, a soft employment report out...
EUR/USD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0942; (P) 1.0980; (R1) 1.1010; More….. Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and more consolidations would be seen below 1.1046. But another rally is in favor as long as 1.0880 support holds. Firm break of 100% projection of 1.0665 to 1.0947...
USD/JPY Analysis: Rate Surpasses 149 Yen Per Dollar
As the USD/JPY chart indicates, the rate has risen approximately 5.4% above the August 5 low. On one hand, the yen’s weakening against the U.S. dollar is partly driven by rumours that the Bank of Japan might intervene not to support the weak yen (as when the rate was...
Market Analysis: Gold and Oil Prices Aim For Further Gains
Gold price started a fresh increase above the $2,432 resistance level. Crude oil prices are gaining bullish momentum and might even test $80.00. Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today Gold price started a steady increase from the $2,400 zone...
GBP/USD Extends Gains as Retail Sales Bounce Back
The British pound has extended its gains on Friday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2887 in the European session, up 0.31% on the day at the time of writing. It has been a winning week for the pound, which has climbed 1%. UK retail sales jump in July There was more good news...
Eurozone goods exports fall -6.3% yoy in Jun, goods imports down -8.6% yoy
Eurozone goods exports fell -6.3% yoy to EUR 236.7B in June. Goods imports fall -8.6% yoy to EUR 214.3B. Trade balance showed a EUR 22.3B surplus. Intra-Eurozone trade fell -8.5% yoy to EUR 214.5B. In seasonally adjusted term, goods exports fell -0.2% mom to EUR...
Strong US Retail Sales Send Yields Soaring
In focus today Today we get UK retail sales data for July at 8.00 CET. According to polls from Reuters, analysts expect overall retail sales to grow by 0.5% m/m and retail sales excl. fuels to grow by 0.8% m/m. In the US, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment...
FX option expiries for 16 August 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the board, as highlighted in bold.And they are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0960 and 1.1000 levels. The latter is the bigger one and arguably of more interest, given similar expiries in the past few days as well. Following the...
Risk-On Sentiment Sweeps Markets, Weighs on Safe Haven Currencies
Yen, Swiss Franc, and to a lesser extent, Dollar are trailing at the bottom of the weekly currency performance chart. Strong risk-on sentiment has swept through the US markets, and the positive momentum continued in Asia. This shift in sentiment was ignited by...
Nasdaq 100: Bears May Still Be Lurking Around the Corner
The market seems to be focused now on growth-related macro data rather than inflation risk. Another softer US retail sales may spark another recession aka hard-landing fear. The rise of the VVIX / VIX ratio may see another potential spike in the VIX. Watch the 19,230...
US retail sales rose 1% mom in Jul, ex-auto sales up 0.4% mom
US retail sales rose 1.0% mom to USD 709.7B in July, above expectation of 0.3% mom. Ex-auto sales rose 0.4% mom to USD 576.1B, above expectation of 0.1% mom. Ex-gasoline sales rose 1.0% mom to USD 657.1B. Ex-auto& gasoline sales rose 0.4% mom to USD 523.4B. Total...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0981; (P) 1.1014; (R1) 1.1046; More….. Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral with current steep retreat. Some consolidations would be seen first. But another rally is in favor as long as 1.0880 support holds. Firm break of 100% projection of...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2806; (P) 1.2838; (R1) 1.2857; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral with current retreat and some consolidations would be seen below 1.2872 temporary top. But further rise is in favor as long as 1.2754 minor support holds. As noted...
U.S. retail sales starts third quarter on an upbeat note
Retail sales rose 1.0% for the month of July. That was much higher than the consensus forecast calling for a more moderate increase of 0.4%. However, June’s figure was revised downward to -0.2% month/month (previously flat). Trade in the auto sector was up 3.6% m/m,...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8625; (P) 0.8643; (R1) 0.8669; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF is back on the upside as rise from 0.8413 resumed by breaking through 0.8710. Focus is now on 38.2% retracement of 0.9223 to 0.8431 at 0.8734. Sustained break there will bring stronger...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.40; (P) 147.00; (R1) 147.91; More… Immediate focus is now on 38.2% retracement of 161.94 to 141.67 at 149.41 as USD/JPY’s rebound from 141.67 extends. Decisive break there will bring stronger rally to 61.8% retracement at 154.19, even as a...
EUR/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.02; (P) 161.81; (R1) 163.02; More… EUR/JPY’s break of 38.2% retracement of 175.41 to 154.40 at 162.42 suggests that fall from 175.41 has completed at 154.40. Rise from there is now seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 175.41....
Retail Sales Is Counterprogramming the Job Report
Summary In the month of July retailers saw a sales increase of $6.8 billion, or 25% of the total gain from the prior two years in a single month. While most of that was an autos bounce after an ugly June, gains were broadly based and thus at odds with reports of a...
Fed’s Musalem: Time may be nearing for policy adjustment
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem indicated today that the balance of risks between inflation and unemployment has shifted, becoming “more balanced”. Speaking at an event, Musalem expressed increased confidence in the inflation outlook, noting that recent data...
GBP/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 188.05; (P) 188.74; (R1) 189.62; More… GBP/JPY’s break of 38.2% retracement of 208.09 to 180.00 at 190.73 argues that the decline from 208.09 has completed at 180.00 already. Rise from there is now seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern...
Australian Dollar Rises on Strong Job Growth
The Australian dollar is in positive territory on Thursday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6607 in the European session, up 0.16% on the day at the time of writing. Earlier, the Aussie rose as high as 0.6633 (0.48%) before retracting. Australian job growth jumps but...
Retail Sales Strength Sparks US Market Surge, Recession Fears Subside
The US markets reacted positively today to stronger-than-expected retail sales data, which posted its fastest growth in a year and a half. Additionally, better-than-expected jobless claims numbers helped alleviate concerns about weaknesses in the employment market....
US initial jobless claims fall to 227k, vs exp 239k
US initial jobless claims fell -7k to 227k in the week ending August 10, lower than expectation of 239k. Four-week moving average of initial claims fell -4.5k to 236.5k. Continuing claims fell -7k to 1864k in the week ending August 3. Four-week moving average of...
GBP/USD Analysis: Rate Steady After Key Data Releases
Yesterday, important U.S. inflation data was released, as reported by ForexFactory: → Core CPI (MoM): actual = 0.2%, forecast = 0.2%; previous = 0.1%; → CPI (YoY): actual = 2.9%, forecast = 3.0%; previous = 3.0%. Today, market participants learned about the change in...
NZD/USD Looking for a Bigger Recovery
Looking at the 4-hour time frame of the Kiwi with ticker NZDUSD, we can see a strong rebound after a completed final subwave “v” of C of (C), as Zealand beat jobs data, so seems like a new three-wave A-B-C rally can be in play within higher degree wave (D) that can...
Gold (XAU/USD) Bounces Back After US CPI, DXY Faces Challenges
Gold prices rebounded after a post-CPI selloff, aided by a struggling US Dollar Index. A sustained move above $2500/oz for gold may require an additional catalyst, like geopolitical risks. The DXY faces challenges and is likely to remain subdued, with technical...
EUR/AUD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6596; (P) 1.6648; (R1) 1.6748; More… Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral as range trading continues. Outlook stays bullish with 1.6474 support intact. On the upside, above 1.6798 minor resistance will bring retest of 1.7180 resistance first....
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8554; (P) 0.8573; (R1) 0.8605; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/GBP is turned neutral first with current retreat, and more consolidations could be seen below 0.8624. But outlook stays bullish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8382 to 0.8624 at 0.8532...
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.02; (P) 161.81; (R1) 163.02; More… Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays neutral and outlook remains bearish with 38.2% retracement of 175.41 to 154.40 at 162.42 intact. On the downside, below 157.71 minor support will bring retest of 154.40 first....
A New Downturn in the Crypto Market
Market Picture The cryptocurrency market retreated 2.9% over the past 24 hours to $2.08 trillion from levels near $2.15 trillion, which had been resistance for the past ten days. Despite moderate optimism in equities following the inflation data, cryptocurrencies...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 188.05; (P) 188.74; (R1) 189.62; More… Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral and outlook remains bearish with 38.2% retracement of 208.09 to 180.00 at 190.73 intact. On the downside, below 186.46 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the...
FX option expiries for 15 August 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.1000 mark. That continues from yesterday and there will be large expiries at the figure level in play again tomorrow. As such, the expiries could offer a bit of...
Aussie Rises on Strong Job Growth, But Gains Limited
Australian Dollar strengthened during Asian session today, buoyed by stronger-than-expected employment growth data. This positive surprise offered some support to Aussie, though gains were limited, failing to push the currency above yesterday’s high. The labor market...
AUD/USD Outlook: Keeps Firm Tone Ahead of US Inflation Data
AUDUSD remains constructive and consolidating Tuesday’s 0.80% advance, as this morning’s RBNZ rate cut by 25 basis points negatively impacted Aussie dollar, but dips were limited, due to strong near-term bullish sentiment on revived risk appetite. Technical studies...
Ethereum Gently Gaining Momentum – Action Forex
Market Picture The cryptocurrency market added 2.2% in the last 24 hours to reach $2.14 trillion, a fresh attempt to climb into the upper half of last month’s trading range from where last week’s sell-off was intensified. Over the past 24 hours, the macroeconomic...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0938; (P) 1.0969; (R1) 1.1024; More….. EUR/USD’s break of 1.1007 confirms resumption of whole rally from 1.0665. Intraday bias is staying on the upside for 100% projection of 1.0665 to 1.0947 from 1.0776 at 1.1058. Decisive break there could...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2792; (P) 1.2833; (R1) 1.2903; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside at this point. Pull back from 1.3043 could have completed at 1.2664 already. Further rise should be seen to retest 1.3043 resistance first. Firm break there will...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8630; (P) 0.8655; (R1) 0.8673; More…. Breach of 0.8631 minor support argues that USD/CHF’s rebound from 0.8431 might have completed at 0.8701 already. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside for retesting 0.8431 low. On the upside, however, firm...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.31; (P) 147.13; (R1) 147.66; More… No change in USD/JPY’s outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. Outlook stays bearish with 38.2% retracement of 161.94 to 141.67 at 149.41 intact and intraday bias stays neutral. Below 145.42 minor support will...
Market Analysis: AUD/USD Rallies While NZD/USD Trims Gains
AUD/USD is consolidating gains near the 0.6620 zone. NZD/USD is trimming gains and struggling to stay above the 0.6000 pivot zone. Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today The Aussie Dollar started a downside correction from 0.6640 against the US...
GBP/USD Shrugs as UK CPI Rises Less Than Expected
The British pound is showing limited movement on Wednesday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2844 in the European session, down 0.15% on the day. UK inflation report supports case for September rate cut Headline inflation in the UK rose 2.2% y/y in July, up from 2% in June but...
US: Inflationary Pressures Continue to Ease in July, Solidifying a September Rate Cut
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-on-month (m/m) in July, bang-on the consensus forecast. On a twelve-month basis, CPI fell to 2.9% (from 3.0% in June). After exerting a measurable drag in each of the two prior months, energy prices were largely flat in...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets July US CPI inflation figures printed very close to consensus. Monthly inflation accelerated both on a headline and on a core level to 0.2% M/M. Details showed food prices rising by 0.2% M/M, energy prices flat, and services (ex. energy) rising by 0.3% M/M....
Soft-Landing, or No Soft-Landing, That Is the Question: Part II
Part II: Quantifying Episodes of Soft-Landing, Stagflation and Recessions Summary In the second part of the series, we quantify episodes of soft-landings, stagflation and recessions during the post-1950 period. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to present...
Is Gold Ready to Sail to All-Time High?
Gold moves sideways; faces resistance near 2,473 Technical signals are positive for a continuation to 2,500 ahead of CPI data Gold repeated its July bounce off the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the four-hour chart to re-examine the 2,473 resistance, which...
Muted Reaction to US CPI, Euro Leads While Kiwi Struggles
The market’s initial reaction to US CPI data has been relatively subdued. While both headline and core CPI readings slowed in July, they remain elevated. This ongoing disinflation is a positive sign for the Fed, but the pace is not rapid enough to justify a larger...
US CPI falls to 2.9% yoy in Jul, core CPI down to 3.2% yoy
US CPI rose 0.2% mom in July, matched expectations. CPI core (all items less food and energy) rose 0.2% mom, matched expectations. Energy prices were unchanged over the month while food prices increased 0.2% mom. For the 12-month period, CPI slowed from 3.0% yoy to...
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8529; (P) 0.8548; (R1) 0.8564; More…. EUR/GBP’s break of 0.8567 suggests that corrective pullback from 0.8624 has completed at 0.8530, after hitting 38.2% retracement of 0.8382 to 0.8624 at 0.8532. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting...
GBP/USD Outlook: Cable Dips on Softer Than Expected UK Data, Focus Shifts on US Inflation
Cable fell 0.35% in immediate reaction to softer than expected UK inflation numbers in July. Although the BoE expected inflationary pressure to rise after CPI stayed at 2% target in past two months, weaker than expected July figure adds to expectations for more rate...
USD/JPY Sees Retreat Amid US Dollar Weakness
USD/JPY has retreated from its peak this week, settling at 146.82. The yen gained some strength as the US dollar weakened following July’s lacklustre US Producer Price Index (PPI) data. This report bolstered market expectations for a potential 50 basis point cut by...
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.79; (P) 161.29; (R1) 161.94; More… Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays neutral at this point. Outlook stays bearish with 38.2% retracement of 175.41 to 154.40 at 162.42 intact. On the downside, below 157.71 minor support will bring retest of 154.40...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 187.81; (P) 188.67; (R1) 189.74; More… Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Outlook remains bearish with 38.2% retracement of 208.09 to 180.00 at 190.73 intact. On the downside, below 186.46 minor support will turn intraday bias...
USDJPY’s Sideways Trading Might End Abruptly
USDJPY continues to hover around the 146 area Market participants are preparing for the US CPI release Momentum indicators remain mixed USDJPY continues to trade sideways, hovering around the 146.65-147.71 area for the fifth consecutive session. The bears are holding...
Eurozone industrial production falls -0.1% mom in Jun, EU down -0.1% mom
Eurozone industrial production fell -0.1% mom in June, much worse than expectation of 0.4% mom rise. Industrial production increased by 0.7% for intermediate goods, 1.9% for energy, 0.9% for capital goods, and 3.8% for durable consumer goods. Production decreased by...
NZDUSD Hits a Wall at 200-Day SMA
NZDUSD had been in a recovery mode since early August But 200-day SMA rejects advance after dovish RBNZ meeting Oscillators deteriorate, yet remain neutral-to-positive NZDUSD had been steadily regaining ground since the beginning of the month after finding its footing...
FX option expiries for 14 August 10am New York cut
There are a couple of expiries to take note of, as highlighted in bold.They are for EUR/USD at the 1.0925 and 1.1035 levels. They former lies near the 200-hour moving average, so there is some technical significance there. However, price action today is largely going...
NZD Tanks After RBNZ Cut, UK and US CPI for Next Volatility Wave
New Zealand Dollar plunged today after RBNZ unexpectedly cut interest rates by 25bps, marking the first reduction in this easing cycle. This move came much earlier than the market’s anticipation of a rate cut in October or November. The selloff gained further momentum...
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.00; (P) 160.98; (R1) 161.92; More… Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral and outlook stays bearish with 38.2% retracement of 175.41 to 154.40 at 162.42 intact. On the downside, below 157.71 minor support will bring retest of 154.40 first....
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 186.87; (P) 188.10; (R1) 189.15; More… Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral and outlook remains bearish with 38.2% retracement of 208.09 to 180.00 at 190.73 intact. On the downside, below 184.46 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the...
GBPUSD Battles With 50-day SMA
GBPUSD advances after its bounce off 200-day SMA A potential breach of 50-day SMA could improve outlook Oscillators suggest strengthening positive momentum GBPUSD had been on the rise following its deflection at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) on August 8....
UK Labour Market Deteriorates Despite Falling Unemployment Rate
The British Pound jumped 0.25% against the Dollar and 0.33% against the Euro due to the employment data. Although key parameters of the report exceeded market expectations, the overall negative trend remains. In the three months to June, the unemployment rate fell to...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0915; (P) 1.0927; (R1) 1.0944; More….. Immediate focus is on 1.0944 minor resistance in EUR/USD. Firm break there will indicate that pullback from 1.1007 has completed at 1.0880 already. Retest of 1.1007 should be seen first. Further break there...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2743; (P) 1.2769; (R1) 1.2790; More… GBP/USD is still capped below 1.2839 resistance despite today’s rally. Intraday bias stays neutral first. On the downside, break of 1.2664 will resume the fall from 1.3043 to 1.2612 support. Decisive break...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets US producer price inflation rose by 0.1% M/M in July for the headline number and stabilized for the gauge excluding food and energy. Both were below consensus (+0.2% M/M), resulting in sharper-than-expected drops in the Y/Y-figures. Headline PPI printed at...
Asian Markets Bounce Back; Eyes on Local Data, Not Just US CPI
Asian equities extend rebound ahead of key data Japanese GDP, Aussie jobs and Chinese indicators on the agenda Any upsets could roil the fragile sentiment A cautious rebound for stocks Stock markets in Asia have not been immune to the global selloff in August amid the...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8623; (P) 0.8667; (R1) 0.8697; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral first. Outlook remains bearish with 38.2% retracement of 0.9223 to 0.8431 at 0.8734 intact. On the downside, below 0.8631 minor support will bring retest of 0.8431 first....
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.43; (P) 147.32; (R1) 148.11; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and outlook remains bearish with 38.2% retracement of 161.94 to 141.67 at 149.41 intact and intraday bias stays neutral. Below 145.42 minor support will turn bias to the...
Dollar Softens after PPI, Kiwi Strong Ahead of RBNZ
Dollar weakens broadly in early US session after July’s PPI came in lower than expected, signaling easing in inflationary pressures. This development was well-received by investors, with stock futures ticking up slightly and 10-year Treasury yield dipping in response....
US PPI at 0.1% mom, 2.2% yoy in Jul, below expectations
US PPI for final demand rose 0.1% mom in July, below expectation of 0.2% mom. PPI goods rose 0.6% while PPI services fell -0.2% mom. PPI less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.3% mom. For the 12 months ended in July, PPI rose 2.2% yoy, slowed from 2.7% yoy,...
AUD/NZD: A Dovish RBNZ May Maintain Aussie Outperformance Over Kiwi
New Zealand’s core inflation trend has decelerated at a faster pace than Australia. RBNZ may use tomorrow’s monetary policy meeting to offer dovish guidance and bring forward its projected first interest rate cut in H1 2025. A dovish hold by RBNZ may reinforce the...
Gold Price Near Historic High Today
As shown on the XAU/USD chart, the gold price is near $2,460 today, despite the 8th August candle opening around $2,385. This means that in just over three full trading sessions, the price per ounce has risen by approximately 3.3%. It is now only about 1.6% away from...
Cryptocurrency Rally Loses Momentum – Action Forex
Market Picture Over the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market has rallied 1.6% to $2.08 trillion, but in the past few hours, there has been a sell-off from a high of $2.15 – roughly the midpoint of the past 30 days’ range. Although cryptocurrency prices are higher...
Brent Crude Oil Faces Demand Concerns Despite Recent Gains
After five consecutive days of upward movement, Brent crude oil is now experiencing a consolidation phase, with prices retreating slightly to 81.80 USD per barrel on Tuesday. Market sentiment is being influenced by renewed concerns over global oil demand, particularly...
EUR/USD Outlook: In Quiet Mode, Awaiting Economic Data for Fresh Ssignals
EURUSD is holding within a narrow congestion, capped by Fibo resistance at 1.0933 (Fibo 61.8% of 1.1139/1.0601), as markets slowed ahead of key release this week – US inflation report. German ZEW economic sentiment (July f/c 32.6 vs June 41.8) due in a while, would...
German ZEW plummets to 19.2, economy breaking down
Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment index took a significant hit in August, falling sharply from 41.8 to 19.2, well below the expected 30.6. This marks the steepest monthly decline since July 2022. Current Situation Index also worsened, dropping from -68.9 to -77.3....
GBP/USD Edges Higher as Wage Growth Hits Lowest Level in 2 Years
Unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, with a decrease in both short-term and long-term unemployment. UK wage growth slowed to its lowest level in two years, yet surpassed market expectations. Despite positive jobs data, BoE policymakers warn of potential inflation rebound...
EURUSD Bulls Don’t Want to Give Up
EURUSD maintains sideways move as 1.0940 barrier blocks the way up Technical risk is on the positive side; eyes on 1.0970 too US PPI due at 12:30 GMT; FOMC member Bostic speaks today EURUSD continues to face restrictions near the 1.0940 level and the resistance...
FX option expiries for 13 August 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.0900 mark again. So, that will help to keep a floor on price action at least until we get to the US PPI data later in the day.Similarly, the ones for AUD/USD at...
Pound Strengthens on UK Jobs Data, But Eyes Further Economic Releases
Sterling is making notable gains after UK employment data revealed an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate for June. Additionally, July’s figures showed continued growth in payrolled employment and a rebound in wage growth. This robust set of data strengthens the...
Australian Dollar Gains Ground, Eyes Wage Growth
The Australian dollar has started the week in positive territory. AUDUSD is trading at 0.6596 in the European session, up 0.41% on the day at the time of writing. Australian dollar recovers as markets stabilize The Australian dollar has quickly recovered from the...
AUD/USD Outlook: Lifted by Fresh Risk Appetite, Retests Key Resistance Zone
AUDUSD advanced 0.5% in Asian / European trading on Monday, to completely reverse Friday’s drop and generate initial signal of bullish continuation. Fresh strength cracked pivotal barriers at 0.6600 zone (converged 200/100DMA’s / base of rising daily cloud, where...
News of the Week (August 12— August 16): NZDUSD Market Review
Focus on NZDUSD! Exciting trading possibilities are just around the corner. The NZDUSD pair is usually called the “Kiwi,”. It denotes the exchange rate between the New Zealand dollar and the US dollar. It is usually regarded as one significant indicator of the...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.96; (P) 146.89; (R1) 147.49; More… USD/JPY’s rebound from 141.67 extends higher today but stays below 38.2% retracement of 161.94 to 141.67 at 149.41. Intraday bias stays neutral and outlook remains bearish. Below 145.42 minor support will turn...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8632; (P) 0.8652; (R1) 0.8673; More… USD/CHF’s recovery from 0.8431 extends higher today but stays below 38.2% retracement of 0.9223 to 0.8431 at 0.8734. Intraday bias remains neutral and further decline is still expected. On the downside, below...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2731; (P) 1.2753; (R1) 1.2779; More… Range trading continues in GBP/USD and intraday bias stays neutral. Another fall is in favor as long as 1.2839 resistance holds. Below 1.2664 will target 1.2612 support. Decisive break there should confirm that...
British Pound Calm ahead of UK Jobs Report
The British pound is drifting on Monday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2768 early in the North American session, up 0.08% on the day. Wage growth expected to slide The UK releases the employment report for the three months to June and we could see signs of a cooling labour...
New Zealand Dollar Higher, Focus on RBNZ
The New Zealand dollar has started the week with gains. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6026 in the North American session, up 0.45% at the time of writing. Will the RBNZ lower rates this week? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on Wednesday and it’s a live meeting as the...
Silver Could Be Bottoming – Action Forex
Silver has been slowing down for the last three months, but drop on 4h time frame is in three waves A-B-C, which indicates for a corrective decline within higher degree wave IV. It’s now potentially finishing final subwave (5) of C at 26,50 – 26,00 strong and key...
US CPI and Retail Sales Data to Test Fed Rate Cut Bets
Investors panicked after NFP report But incoming data eased fears and rate cut bets Still, market pricing remains overly dovish Focus turns to US CPI on Wednesday and retail sales on Thursday, at 12:30 GMT Latest data ease recession fears Following the...
MIxed open for the major indices. Dow down. S&P marginally higher. Nasdaq up.
The major US stock indices are opening today mixed. The Dow Industrial Average versus lower. The S&P index is marginally higher while the NASDAQ index is a little better than marginally higher.A snapshot of the major indices nine minutes into the open is showing:...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0906; (P) 1.0919; (R1) 1.0929; More….. Outlook in EUR/USD is unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral. While deeper retreat cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained well above 1.0776 support. On the upside, above 1.0944 minor resistance...
Yen and Swiss Franc Weaken in Quiet Markets as Focus Shifts to Australian Data
Yen and Swiss Franc weaken slightly in today’s subdued trading environment. With the economic calendar offering little in terms of market-moving events during the European and US sessions, currency movements have been minimal. Meanwhile, Australian and New Zealand...
Hang Seng Index: Medium-Term Bullish Trend Damaged
China’s lacklustre core consumer inflation growth for July suggests the current pace of piecemeal stimulus measures is not sufficient to eradicate deflationary pressures. The “non-abating” deflationary risk scenario pushed the 10-year China sovereign bond yield to a...
OPEC downgrades oil demand growth estimates for 2024
OPEC downgraded its global oil demand forecast for 2024, now expecting an increase of 2.11 million barrels per day (bpd), slightly lower than the 2.25 million bpd projected last month. The organization also adjusted its demand growth estimate for next year, lowering...
Will RBNZ Start Cutting Rates Sooner Than Later
RBNZ could keep interest rates steady but signal easing sooner rather than later Economic picture shows signs of stress but no red flags yet NZDUSD approaches 0.6060-0.6080 resistance territory NZ employment data sway rate cut bets Q2 employment data from New Zealand...
NZD/USD Gains Momentum ahead of RBNZ Meeting
The New Zealand dollar is steadily rising against the US dollar, with the NZD/USD pair reaching 0.6014 as of Monday. The financial markets are gearing up for Wednesday’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meeting. Analysts widely anticipate that the RBNZ will maintain...
USD/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.96; (P) 146.89; (R1) 147.49; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for the moment. While further rally cannot be ruled out, outlook will stay bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 161.94 to 141.67 at 149.41 holds. Below 144.04 minor...
EUR/USD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0906; (P) 1.0919; (R1) 1.0929; More….. Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains for the moment. While deeper retreat cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained well above 1.0776 support. On the upside, above 1.0944 minor resistance will bring...
Back in Business – Action Forex
In focus today Danish CPI is due this morning, and we expect inflation to decline from 1.8% in June to 0.9% in July, as last year’s temporary suspension of the electricity fee exits the inflation measure. In the week ahead, we will watch out particularly for US...
Gold on Track to Revisit All-Time High
Gold advances after bouncing off 50-day SMA The bulls eye recent record high as next target Oscillators are cautiously tilted to the upside Gold has been trading back and forth within a range in the past month, unable to adopt a clear directional impetus. In the near...
XAU/USD Outlook: Bulls Hold Grip Ahead of Key US Inflation Data
Gold remains at the front foot and edges higher in early Monday, extending recovery into third straight day. The yellow metal regained ground after last week’s sharp fall, boosted by growing signals that the Fed may opt for 50 basis points rate hike in September. Weak...
FX option expiries for 12 August 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0900 level. With price action also keeping in between its key hourly moving averages of 1.0890-22 currently, the expiries are likely to help play a role in keeping...
Quiet Forex Start Masks Anticipation of US CPI-Driven Volatility
The forex markets have started the week on a subdued note, typical of a Monday morning in Asia, particularly with Japan on holiday. Yen remains in a consolidation phase, holding steady after its recent gains and staying as the strongest currency this month so far....
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/CHF rebounded strongly after initial dive to 0.9209 last week. But upside is limited by 0.9476 support turned resistance so far. Near term outlook remains bearish for now. On the downside, break of 0.9354 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for...
EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/AUD retreated sharply after initial surge to 1.7180, but downside is held above 1.6474 support so far. Further rise is still expected. On the upside, above 1.6798 minor resistance will bring retest of 1.7180 resistance first. Firm break there will resume larger up...
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/GBP retreated after rising to 0.8624 last week and a short term top could be formed ahead of 0.8643 resistance. Some consolidations could be seen now, with risk of deeper pullback. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.8382 to 0.8624 at 0.8532...
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/JPY rebounded strongly after initial dive to 154.40 last week. While further rise cannot be ruled out, outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 175.41 to 154.40 at 162.42 holds. On the downside, below 157.71 minor support will bring retest of...
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/JPY rebounded after initial dive to 180.00 last week. While further rise cannot be ruled out, outlook will stay bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 208.09 to 180.00 at 190.73 holds. On the downside, below 184.46 minor support will turn intraday bias back to...
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CAD spiked higher to 1.3946 last week but reversed from there. Yet, downside is contained by 55 D EMA (now at 1.3717) so far. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Strong rebound from current level, followed by break of 1.3790 minor resistance, will retain near...
AUD/USD Weekly Report – Action Forex
AUD/USD rebounded strongly after initial dive to 0.6348 last week. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for further rise. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.6614) will target 0.6798 resistance. On the downside, break of 0.6506 minor support will indicate...
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CHF rebounded after initial fall to 0.8431 last week. While further rise cannot be ruled out, outlook will stay bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9223 to 0.8431 at 0.8734 holds. On the downside, below 0.8559 minor support will bring retest of 0.8431 first....
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/JPY rebounded strongly after initial dive to 141.67 last week. While further rally cannot be ruled out, outlook will stay bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 161.94 to 141.67 at 149.41 holds. Below 144.04 minor support will turn bias to the downside for...
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/USD retreated after initial rise to 1.1007 last week and turned into consolidations. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. While deeper retreat cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained well above 1.0776 support. On the upside, above 1.0944 minor...
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/USD’s decline from 1.3043 extended lower last week but recovered after hitting 1.2664. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, and further fall is in favor as long as 1.2839 resistance holds. Below 1.2664 will target 1.2612 support. Decisive break there...
Market Panic Subsides as Consolidations Take Hold, but Sentiment Remains Fragile
The global financial markets started last week in a state of panic, driven by a sharp selloff in stock markets, with Japan’s Nikkei index experiencing particularly heavy losses. However, as the week progressed, this initial wave of panic appeared to subside, with...
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: A Wild Week in a Data Desert
Summary United States: A Wild Week in a Data Desert It was a very quiet week on the U.S. economic data front, but financial markets were anything but calm. Last week’s run of weak U.S. data, capped by a troubling rise in the unemployment rate and a slowdown in nonfarm...
The Weekly Bottom Line: Bumps in the Road
U.S. Highlights Inflation and the labor market are cooling off, but the economy has not yet hit a wall. Despite what markets may be fearing. The ISM services survey showed broad based improvements in July, while falling longer term interest rates are easing financial...
Markets Weekly Outlook – US CPI to Test Markets Following Tumultuous Week
US equities rebounded from a selloff earlier in the week, ending slightly higher. However, caution remains due to upcoming economic data releases. The Japanese Yen is heading for its first losing week in six, impacted by a peak in short-position unwinding and dovish...
Summary 8/12 – 8/16
Monday, Aug 12, 2024 Tuesday, Aug 13, 2024 Wednesday, Aug 14, 2024 Thursday, Aug 15, 2024 Friday, Aug 16, 2024 The post Summary 8/12 – 8/16 appeared first on Action Forex.
A Crypto Test for Risk Appetite
Market Picture Risk appetite played out in the markets on Thursday, adding over 6.4% to the crypto market’s capitalisation in the last 24 hours. The capitalisation peaked at $2.18 trillion in the morning, the highest since last Friday. In just over 24 hours, the price...
Gold Is Back, But Not For Long
Gold has experienced increased volatility over the past seven days, falling 4.4% from Friday’s high to Monday’s low and then rising 2.5% from the low. Much of gold’s recovery on Thursday was in tandem with a massive rally in equities in response to some improvement in...
Gold (XAU/USD) Remains Strong Above $2400/oz as Fed Hints at Upcoming Rate Cuts
Despite a stronger US Dollar yesterday, gold’s upward trend continued, bolstered by the rate cut narrative. The technical outlook for gold indicates further upside potential, with prices possibly reaching between 2440 and 2450 during the US session. The longer-term...
Canada’s jobs down -2.8k in Jul, unemployment rate unchanged at 6.4%
Canada’s employment fell -2.8k in July, much worse than expectation of 26.9k growth. The 62k rise in full-time work was offset by -62k decline in part-time work. Employment rate fell -0.2% to 60.9%. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.4%, below expectation of 6.5%....
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2693; (P) 1.2722; (R1) 1.2780; More… GBP/USD dips mildly after hitting 55 4H EMA but stays in range above 1.2664. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Another fall is in favor as long as 1.2839 resistance holds. Below 1.2664 will target...
USD/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.96; (P) 146.76; (R1) 148.07; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral at this point. While further rise cannot be ruled out, outlook will stay bearish as long as 150.88 resistance holds. On the downside, below 144.04 minor support will bring...
USD/CHF Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8593; (P) 0.8634; (R1) 0.8707; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment and further decline is still expected. On the downside, below 0.8559 minor support will bring retest of 0.8431 first. Break there will resume the fall...
Week Ahead – US CPI to Test Market Nerves, RBNZ Might Cut Rates
Market turmoil has eased, but will US CPI stir things up again? Crucial week for sterling as UK CPI, GDP and retail sales on the way The RBNZ is edging closer to a rate cut, but will it be next week? Japanese GDP, Australian jobs and Chinese data eyed too US economy...
Is the US Data that Bad to Justify a Rate Cut?
The recent acute market reaction occurred due to increased recession fears Surprise indices point to a more balanced US economic situation Recessions tend to be caused by one-off major events The recent market drop has been attributed to higher chances of a US...
U.S. Inflation Likely Held Steady in July
All eyes will be on Wednesday’s U.S. inflation print after a larger-than-expected increase in the unemployment rate and softening in the manufacturing sector a week ago heightened concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to respond with more aggressive interest rate...
EUR/USD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0886; (P) 1.0915; (R1) 1.0949; More….. Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. While deeper retreat cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained well above 1.0776 support. On the upside, above 1.0944 minor resistance will...
Canada’s Job Market Softens Further in July
For the second straight month, Canadian employment was essentially unchanged (-2.8k), disappointing expectations for a modest 25k gain. Full-time positions rebounded (+62k), but were offset by sizeable part-time job losses (-64k). The unemployment rate also remained...
Safe-Haven Currencies Edge Higher, But Momentum Weak
As we move into US session, safe-haven currencies like Yen, Swiss Franc, and Dollar are showing modest gains, driven by weaker stock futures and treasury yields. However, momentum behind these currencies remains unconvincing, with trading sluggish across the board....
Fed’s Collins: Gradual rate cuts expected as inflation moderates
Boston Fed President Susan Collins indicated in an interview with the Providence Journal that if current economic data trends continue as expected, it may soon be appropriate to start adjusting monetary policy by “easing how restrictive the policy is”. She emphasized...
EUR/GBP : 200DMA So Far Holds Pullback from New Multi-Week High
EURGBP dips further on Friday, extending pullback from new 3 ½ month high (0.8624) posted previous day. Fresh weakness cracked pivotal 200DMA (0.8555), with sustained break here to add to bearish signals, as reversal pattern is forming on daily chart. However,...
GBP/USD: Bullish Bias Above Rising Daily Cloud
Cable remains at the front foot and extends recovery on Friday morning, after fresh bulls registered break and close above the top of rising daily cloud. Fading US recession fears and solid Chinese economic data revived risk sentiment while sterling gets support from...
EUR/USD Stabilises Amid Fed Speculation and Absence of Major Economic Data
The EUR/USD pair has found some stability at around 1.0921 this Friday, following a week marked by high volatility. Market participants have been adjusting their positions in response to speculations concerning the US economy’s potential rapid recession and subsequent...
Canadian Dollar Rallies, Jobs Report Looms
The Canadian dollar has shined this week, posting gains over the past four days and rising 1%. Will the impressive rally continue? In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3732, unchanged on the day. Canadian job growth expected to rebound Canada wraps...
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 159.56; (P) 160.23; (R1) 161.48; More… Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Outlook stays bearish with 162.87 resistance intact. On the downside, below 157.71 minor support will turn bias back to the downside. Break of 154.40...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 185.54; (P) 186.71; (R1) 188.93; More… Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral and outlook remains bearish as long as 190.48 resistance holds. On the downside, below 183.10 minor support will bring retest of 180.00 first. Break there will resume the...
USDCAD Bears Take a Break But Are Not Done Yet
USDCAD experiences worst week of the year Selling pressure might persist; eyes on 1.3730 Canadian employment figures due at 12:30 GMT Since reaching a 22-month high of 1.3945, USDCAD has been steadily dropping towards its 50-day SMA at 1.3730, making it the...
GBPJPY Climb Continues – Action Forex
GBPJPY is edging higher today, recording another green session It remains around 10% below its recent peak Momentum indicators acknowledge this bullish reaction GBPJPY is edging higher again today, recording its third consecutive green candle and recovering by around...
FX option expiries for 9 August 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first one being for EUR/USD at the 1.0900 mark. That should help to keep a floor on price action in the session ahead, with the pair itself settling just above the figure level following...
US Stock Rebound Fails to Boost Asian Markets, Focus on Canadian Jobs Data
The US stock market rebounded notably overnight, with all three major indexes closing higher. However, this positive momentum didn’t carry over to the Asian session, where major markets are trading mixed. Despite the gains in the US, the price actions this week still...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0907; (P) 1.0922; (R1) 1.0938; More….. EUR/USD dips mildly in early US session as consolidation from 1.1007 extends. Intraday bias remains neutral first. While deeper retreat cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained well above 1.0776...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2669; (P) 1.2703; (R1) 1.2726; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside at this point. Fall from 1.3043 should continue to 1.2612 support. Decisive break there should confirm that rise from 1.2298 has completed, and target this...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8530; (P) 0.8596; (R1) 0.8683; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. While recovery from 0.8431 might extend, further decline is expected with 0.8711 resistance intact. On the downside, below 0.8500 will bring...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.69; (P) 146.30; (R1) 148.31; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. While further rise cannot be ruled out, outlook will stay bearish as long as 150.88 resistance holds. On the downside, below 144.04 minor support will...
Gold Outlook: Bounces as Bulls Regain Traction After Recent Fall
Gold regained traction and bounced on Thursday, following a sharp fall in past few days. Fresh strength signals that the situation is stabilizing after a turbulent period and broader bulls are about to re-take control. The yellow metal benefited from growing signals...
AUD/USD Outlook: Initial Reversal Signal Developing on Daily Chart
AUDUSD regained strength and advanced on Thursday, offsetting negative impact from Wednesday’s strong upside rejection under the base of rising daily cloud. Several signals point to basing attempts and formation of reversal pattern on daily chart, such as Monday’s...
USD/CAD Consolidates at Support Ahead of Canadian Employment Data
USD/CAD found support ahead of Canadian employment data release. Positive US jobless claims data boosted sentiment and USD. Bank of Canada hopes for moderation in unemployment rate following 50 basis points of cuts. USD/CAD seems to have found support ahead of crucial...
Soft-Landing, or No Soft-Landing, That is the Question: Part I
Part I: A New Toolkit to Predict Soft-Landings, Stagflation and Recessions Summary In this first part of a series of reports, we introduce a new toolkit to predict the probability of soft-landing, stagflation and recessionary episodes. Bernanke (2024) reviewed the...
Nikkei 225: Potential Bullish Key Reversal Week Aafter 4 Weeks of Decline
Monday, 5 August significant sell-off in the Nikkei 225 has triggered a potential bullish key reversal inflection week. Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for Japan staged a positive turnaround on Monday, 5 August which suggests an improvement in macro data. The...
Aussie Jumps as RBA Says Rates Could Rise
The Australian dollar has had a busy week and is showing strong gains on Thursday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6550, up 0.50% at the time of writing. RBA’s Bullock says rate hikes still on table Two days after the Reserve Bank of Australia held...
Dollar Gains Slightly after Jobless Claims, Calm Forex Trading Continue
Forex trading continues to be subdued today, with Dollar gaining slightly in the early US session after better-than-expected jobless claims data. This data is particularly crucial as market participants are closely monitoring employment figures following the...
US initial jobless claims fall to 233k, below exp 245k
US initial jobless claims fell -17k to 233k in the week ending August 3, lower than expectation of 245k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 2.5k to 241k. Continuing claims rose 6k to 1875k in the week ending July 27, highest since November 21, 2021....
Dollar Index: Limited Recovery Likely to Precede Fresh Weakness as Rate Outlook Weighs
The dollar index ticked lower in European trading on Thursday, after bounce from 8-month low (101.94, posted on Monday) started to lose traction. Weak picture on daily chart (MA’s in bearish configuration / strong negative momentum) warn of limited recovery before...
Japanese Yen (JPY) Price Action: Following Dovish BoJ Comments, What Does Price Action Tell Us?
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) released their summary of opinions, accompanied by bearish comments from BoJ policymakers. Geopolitical concerns could bolster the Yen, but the safe haven appeal might be divided among the US Dollar, Yen, and Swiss Franc. From a technical...
USD/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.69; (P) 146.30; (R1) 148.31; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral an further decline is expected with 150.88 resistance intact. On the downside, below 144.04 minor support will bring retest of 141.67 first. Break there will resume the...
Gold (XAU/USD) Recovers Amid Rate Cut Expectations
Gold (XAU/USD) prices have rebounded to 2394 USD per troy ounce, paring previous losses as the likelihood of a US Federal Reserve rate cut increases. Market sentiment is increasingly cautious amid recession fears, influencing stock market dynamics and bolstering the...
USD/CHF Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8530; (P) 0.8596; (R1) 0.8683; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral and further decline is expected with 0.8711 resistance intact. On the downside, below 0.8500 will bring retest of 0.8431 first. Break there will resume the decline from...
GBP/USD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2669; (P) 1.2703; (R1) 1.2726; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays on the downside despite some loss of momentum. Fall from 1.3043 should continue to 1.2612 support. Decisive break there should confirm that rise from 1.2298 has completed, and...
EUR/USD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0907; (P) 1.0922; (R1) 1.0938; More….. EUR/USD is extending the consolidation from 1.1007 and intraday bias remains neutral. While deeper retreat cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained well above 1.0776 support. On the upside, break of...
EUR/USD Outlook: Looks for Clearer Direction Signal
EUR/USD edged higher in Asia / early Europe on Thursday, hinting that pullback from Monday’s spike high (1.1009) might be over. Signals of formation of a higher base at 1.0900 zone add to positive near-term outlook, as technical studies on daily chart are...
FX option expiries for 8 August 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD, layered at the 1.0900 and 1.0955 levels. They aren't significant from a technical perspective but will likely play a role in holding price action in between the...
Central Bank Signals Ignored; Consolidation Continues in Currency Markets
The financial markets are relatively quiet in Asian session today, with major currency pairs and crosses trading within yesterday’s range. BoC’s summary of deliberations suggested that the central bank is on track for further policy loosening. Meanwhile, BoJ’s summary...
USD/JPY Analysis: Rate Stabilizes After Tsunami
Less than a month ago, the rate was above 161 yen per US dollar. This week, it dropped below 142.5 yen (approximately -12%). The strengthening of the Japanese yen was driven by actions from the Bank of Japan and financial authorities: → Intervention to support the yen...
BoJ Comments Ease USDJPY Oversold But Unlikely to Be a Game-Changer
USDJPY jumped more than 2% after comments from the Bank of Japan’s deputy governor reduced the chances of further policy tightening soon. Uchida said that the central bank will not raise interest rates when markets are unstable. These words brought buyers back into...
GBP/USD Outlook: Recovery Above Daily Cloud Likely to Be Limited
Cable started to gain traction and edged higher on Wednesday morning, after the latest drop penetrated rising daily cloud (cloud top at 1.2702) but found firm ground at 1.2682 (100DMA) where dips were repeatedly rejected. Subsequent rise may generate initial bullish...
NZ Dollar Surges on Strong Employment Data
The New Zealand dollar has soared today. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6018, up an impressive 1.1% at the time of writing. New Zealand job growth surprises on the upside New Zealand’s labour market has been cooling off due to elevated interest rates...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.21; (P) 144.79; (R1) 145.95; More… USD/JPY is staying below 150.88 resistance despite current rebound. Intraday bias remains neutral and further decline is expected. On the downside, below 144.04 minor support will bring retest of 141.67 first....
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8485; (P) 0.8529; (R1) 0.8556; More… USD/CHF’s recovery from 0.8431 extends higher today but upside is still limited well below 0.8711 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral and further decline remains in favor. On the downside, below 0.8500...
Preview of RBNZ: Nearing the Finish Line – But Not Quite There Yet
We expect the RBNZ will leave the OCR at 5.5% at the August Monetary Policy Statement. We expect a significant revision in the forward view for the OCR consistent with potential easing in October and November, leaving the year end OCR at 5%. We also expect significant...
Remember Inflation? July CPI Preview
Summary The July CPI report is likely to further the case that inflation is quieting down even if it has not yet returned all the way back to the Fed’s target. We look for headline CPI to have advanced 0.2% in July, which would keep the year-over-year rate steady at...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2642; (P) 1.2723; (R1) 1.2772; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays on the downside and fall from 1.3043 should continue to 1.2612 support. Decisive break there should confirm that rise from 1.2298 has completed, and target this support next. For...
Brent Oil Price Analysis: Anticipating a Correction
Brent crude oil’s price increased to 76.88 USD per barrel on Wednesday, continuing to rise for the second consecutive session. This rebound helps mitigate previous losses, which were part of a broader market risk aversion phase. Current market dynamics Investor...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0903; (P) 1.0933; (R1) 1.0962; More….. Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral and more consolidations would be seen below 1.1007. While deeper retreat cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained well above 1.0776 support. On the upside,...
BoC Deliberations Awaited as Kiwi Gains, Yen Falls
News flow has been slow today, with only second-tier economic data coming out of Europe and no major releases from the US. Some attention is turning towards Canada, where BoC is set to release its summary of deliberations from the July 24 meeting, which resulted in...
NZDUSD Jumps Aggressively Higher – Action Forex
NZDUSD records a sizeable green candle today Strong reaction following the recent acute correction Momentum indicators are mixed, bearish pressure weakening NZDUSD is edging aggressively higher today, cancelling out a good part of the recent correction that led to a...
AUD/USD: Hawkish RBA and Dovish BoJ Underpin Recovery
AUDUSD recovery from Monday’s spike low (0.6348, the lowest since early Nov 2023) picks up on Wednesday. Hawkish RBA on Tuesday, with policy diverging from other major central banks, fading fears about US recession and the latest dovish shift from BOJ, were the key...
Market Analysis: GBP/USD Dives While EUR/GBP Gains Strength
GBP/USD started a fresh decline from the 1.2860 resistance zone. EUR/GBP is rising and might climb above the 0.8620 resistance. Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today The British Pound is showing bearish signs below the 1.2800 support. There is a...
USD/CHF: Can The Dollar Rebound from Its Plunge?
Key Highlights USD/CHF declined heavily below the 0.8700 support and tested 0.8430. A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance at 0.8600 on the 4-hour chart. Bitcoin started a recovery wave from the $48,500 zone. Gold corrected gains and might revisit the...
Bitcoin: From Shock to the Death Cross
Market picture Crypto market capitalisation is back above $2 trillion, up 1.3% over 24 hours. On Wednesday, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index retreated from extreme fear territory at 17 (the lowest in over two years) to 29. The sharp declines in Bitcoin and Ethereum,...
Oil Prices Near Recent Lows: Demand Concerns Keep Bulls at Bay
Oil prices remain subdued due to recession fears and demand concerns. US stockpiles unexpectedly increased, adding to the bearish sentiment, EIA data out later today. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and China’s economic outlook are also contributing factors....
EUR/CHF Outlook: Bounces from Multi-Year Low on Fresh Risk Appetite/SNB Intervention Talks
EURCHF edged higher in early trading on Wednesday on s=initial signals that risk appetite is gaining traction. The pair from new multi-year low after being hit by surge in risk aversion in past few days, sparked by worsening economic and geopolitical conditions, which...
USDJPY Begins a Healing Process
USDJPY gears up after 7-month low Recent sharp sell-off looks overdone Bulls hope for a close above 146.58 to continue higher USDJPY showed signs of life on Wednesday, forcefully bouncing above the 144.57 bar that had limited Tuesday’s gains following the flash spike...
FX option expiries for 7 August 10am New York cut
There is one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.However, there is a major caveat attached to it. That considering it is one for USD/JPY and price action there is extremely volatile as we're witnessing a ~350 pips range already so far today. As such,...
NZD Rallies on Strong Q2 Employment Data; JPY Sinks Amid BoJ Caution
New Zealand Dollar surged strongly today following much better than expected Q2 employment data.. Speculations of an early rate cut by RBNZ next week now seem exaggerated. Major banks still expect RBNZ to start easing monetary policy this year, with consensus pointing...
USD/CHF Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8437; (P) 0.8520; (R1) 0.8606; More… USD/CHF recovered after dipping to 0.8431 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Some consolidations would be seen but upside should be limited by 0.8711 resistance. Below 0.8431 will resume the fall from...
GBP/USD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2719; (P) 1.2769; (R1) 1.2829; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral as range trading continues. Further decline is in favor with 1.2863 resistance intact. On the downside, below 1.2706 will target 1.2612 support first. Decisive break there...
USD/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.68; (P) 144.17; (R1) 146.64; More… USD/JPY recovered after diving to 141.67 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Some consolidations would be seen but upside should be limited by 150.88 resistance to bring another fall. Break of 141.67...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2719; (P) 1.2769; (R1) 1.2829; More… GBP/USD’s fall from 1.3043 resumed by breaking 1.2706 temporary low and intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.2612 support. Decisive break there should confirm that rise from 1.2298 has completed, and...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.68; (P) 144.17; (R1) 146.64; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation above 141.67. Upside of recovery should be limited by 150.88 resistance to bring another fall. On the downside, break of 141.67 will resume the decline...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8437; (P) 0.8520; (R1) 0.8606; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for consolidations above 0.8431. Upside of recovery should be limited by 0.8711 resistance to bring another fall. On the downside, below 0.8431 will resume the decline...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0893; (P) 1.0951; (R1) 1.1009; More….. Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral with break of 1.0932 minor support. Some consolidations would be seen below 1.1007 first. While deeper retreat cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained well...
Canada’s Trade Position Swings to a Surplus in June
Canada’s merchandise trade balance moved sharply into surplus territory in June after three months in deficit. June’s surplus registered at $638 million, with last month’s deficit being revised slightly lower to $1.6 billion. Merchandise exports increased by a hefty...
Gold (XAU/USD) Steadies After Volatile Monday; DXY Bounces Back
Gold prices rebounded above $2,400/oz after a dip to $2,364/oz, showing resilience despite a strengthening US Dollar. Gold benefits from expectations of more aggressive rate cuts and its safe-haven status. Geopolitical and economic risks in the second half of 2024,...
JP 225 Index Tries to Find Footing After 20% Crash
JP 225 index plummets to 10-month low amid global stock meltdown Oversold signals detected; but bulls could show up above 33,585 Japan’s 225 stock index (cash) started the month on the wrong foot, sinking by a massive 21% to a 10-month low of 30,361 in the wake of...
Dollar Strengthens Mildly Amid Market Calm, Sterling Weakens
Dollar is showing broad but mild strength today as global financial markets stabilize after recent turmoil. The stock market rebound, including a notable 10% surge in the Nikkei, appears to be driven by short covering rather than a sustained recovery. Despite the...
EUR/USD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0893; (P) 1.0951; (R1) 1.1009; More….. Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the upside with 1.0932 minor support intact. Current rally is part of the whole rise from 1.0665 and should target 100% projection of 1.0665 to 1.0947 from 1.0776 at 1.1056...
Bitcoin’s Bear Rally?
Market picture The cryptocurrency market has survived the peak of fear, finding the strength to consolidate during European trading and begin a recovery during active hours in the Americas. As a result, the crypto market capitalisation is up 11.3% in 24 hours to $1.98...
AUD/USD Remains Under Pressure as RBA Holds Rates
The Australian dollar gained ground earlier but has reversed directions and has edged lower. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6778, down 0.24% at the time of writing. RBA maintains cash rate at 4.35% The Reserve Bank of Australia held the cash rate at...
Will BoJ Summary of Opinions Add More Fuel to Yen’s Engines?
Yen rallies on cocktail of developments BoJ Summary could offer more policy clarity The report will be published on Wednesday at 23:50 GMT Yen skyrockets more than 12% after intervention After hitting a 38-year low against its US counterpart on July 3, the Japanese...
AUDUSD Stays in One Piece After Flash Crash
AUDUSD bounces back from its lowest point in nine months Short-term risk skewed to the upside; close above 0.6500 needed RBA maintains steady policy; pushes back rate cut timing AUDUSD encountered a significant drop to a nine-month low of 0.6346 on Monday, marking its...
RBA on Hold, But Hawkish Amongst Market Whiplash
The RBA left rates on hold in August as we expected, but their rhetoric and view of aggregate demand were surprisingly hawkish. Given the Board apparently does not see its way to cutting rates this year, our expectation of a November rate cut is unlikely to be...
UK PMI construction jumps to 55.3, paused projects released
UK PMI Construction rose from 52.2 to 55.3 in June, highest reading since May 2022. S&P Global noted that activity rose amid much faster increase in new orders. Employment increased for the third month running. Emerging pressure on supply chains signaled. Andrew...
Eurozone retail sales falls -0.3% mom in June, EU down -0.1% mom
Eurozone retail sales volume fell -0.3% mom in June, worse than expectation of -0.2% mom. Retail trade decreased for food, drinks, tobacco by -0.7%, and for non-food products (except automotive fuel) by – 0.1%. Retail trade increased increased for automotive fuel in...
NZD/USD Sees Recovery After Hitting Nine-Month Low
The NZD/USD pair has shown signs of recovery, reaching 0.5941 after initially plunging to a nine-month low. This downturn was triggered by concerns over a potential US recession, driven by weak job sector data, which rattled global financial markets. As risk aversion...
Market Volatility Persists, Aussie Steady with RBA’s Intricate Inflation Forecast
The financial markets continued to see extreme volatility. DOW dropped by over -1000 points overnight, but the global rout seems to have paused for now. Nikkei staged a dramatic 10% rebound in early trading after yesterday’s history plunge of -12.4%. However, this...
FX option expiries for 6 August 10am New York cut
There aren't any major expiries to take note of on the day. For now, trading sentiment will continue to ride on the emotions and so far today it is one mostly of relief. The global market selloff has abated, at least for the time being, but sentiment is still very...
Eurozone Sentix falls to -13.8, ECB under pressure to cut further and faster
Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence fell sharply from -7.3 to -13.8 in August, marking its lowest level since January. Current Situation Index dropped from -15.8 to -19.0, the lowest since February, while Expectations Index declined from 1.5 to -8.8, the lowest since...
Eurozone PPI at 0.5% mom, -3.2% yoy in Jun
Eurozone PPI rose 0.5% mom in June, but down -3.2% yoy, comparing to expectation of 0.3% mom, -3.2% yoy. For the month. Industrial producer prices increased by 0.1% for intermediate goods,1.6% for energy, 0.1% for capital goods, and 0.1% for non-durable consumer...
Aussie Slides on Fears Over the US Economy
The Australian dollar has taken a nasty spill to start off the trading week. AUD/USD dropped as much has 2.5% in the Asian session and fell to its lowest levels since November 2023. The Aussie has pared those losses and is down 0.96% at the time of writing, trading at...
Nikkei 225 Index Has Plummeted to a Nine-Month Low
As shown by the Nikkei 225 (Japan 225 on FXOpen) chart: → In less than a month, the index price has dropped by more than 25%, providing grounds to suggest the start of a bear market; → The price has approached the psychological level of 30,000 points – the last time...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0820; (P) 1.0873; (R1) 1.0965; More….. EUR/USD’s strong break of 1.0947 resistance confirms resumption of the rise from 1.0665. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 100% projection of 1.0665 to 1.0947 from 1.0776 at 1.1056 next. On the...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2729; (P) 1.2784; (R1) 1.2861; More… Range trading continues in GBP/USD and intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. Further decline is in favor with 1.2863 resistance intact. On the downside, below 1.2706 will target 1.2612 support first....
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8523; (P) 0.8631; (R1) 0.8689; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside at this point. Current fall from 0.9223 should target a retest on 0.8332 low. On the upside, above 0.8594 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.40; (P) 147.59; (R1) 148.76; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for the moment. Current fall from 161.94 should target 140.25 support next. On the upside, above 146.40 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and...
US ISM services rises to 51.4, corresponds to 0.8% annualized GDP growth
US ISM Services PMI rose from 48.8 to 51.4 in July, matched expectations. Looking at some details, business activity/production rose from 49.6 to 54.5. New orders rose from 47.3 to 52.4. Employment jumped from 46.1 to 51.1. Prices rose from 56.3 to 57.0. ISM said:...
Fed’s Goolsbee: Jobs data weak, but recession not imminent
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee addressed the recent economic concerns in an interview with CNBC, noting that last Friday’s jobs numbers were “weaker than expected” but not yet indicative of a recession. He emphasized the Fed’s commitment to its core...
AUD/USD Technical: Dropped Towards 0.6360 Key Range Support Ahead of RBA
AUD/USD has been the worst performer among the major currencies in the past 4 weeks due to a double whammy slow-down growth effect from the US and China. RBA’s “hawkish hold” monetary policy stance on Tuesday may offer a relief for the AUD/USD. The recent 6.6% decline...
Global Markets Crashing: Nikkei’s Historic 12.4% Plunge, DOW Futures Down 1100 Points
Global stock markets are in crash mode today, beginning with the massive historic -12.4% decline in Nikkei. Major European indexes are also trading deeply in the red, with losses around -3%, though these are overshadowed by the severe drop in Japan. Concurrently, DOW...
EUR/USD Analysis: The Rate Has Risen to a Nearly 5-Month High
As shown by today’s EUR/USD chart, the rate rose this morning to 1.096 – its highest level since mid-March. On one hand, this was driven by the weakness of the dollar. The USD fell sharply against other currencies following the release of labour market news on Friday...
EUR/GBP: Overbought Conditions Warn of Correction of Steep Three-Day Rally
EUR/GBP – strong three day rally (the cross was up 2.1%) started to lose traction after hitting fresh high of nearly three months on Monday (0.8596). Overbought daily studies warn of partial profit taking following steep ascend, which will mark positioning for fresh...
Rapid Yen Appreciation: Key Factors Boosting JPY
The Japanese yen continues its recovery rally. The USDJPY pair falls to 143.38 on Monday. This development is likely only the midpoint of the process as the market regains past losses and brings the JPY to equilibrium. USDJPY is currently at its lowest level since 3...
Global Stock Rout as Nasdaq 100 Futures Falls 6%, Safe Havens Bid
Global markets extend losses, Nikkei plummets, Nasdaq 100 enters correction territory. Selloff attributed to recession fears, profit-taking, and geopolitical tensions. Goldman Sachs raises recession odds, Australian government increases terrorism threat level. Nasdaq...
Crypto Investors Have Lost Their Nerve
Market picture The cryptocurrency market was hit by a sell-off over the weekend, the likes of which haven’t been seen in a long time. We would not have been surprised to see such a sell-off before the halving due to the last takeout of buyers before the start of...
USD/JPY: Falls to Eight-Month Low, Eyes Key 140.00 Support Zone
USDJPY fell sharply overnight, hitting the lowest since early January, extending steep bear-leg off 155.21 lower top into fifth consecutive day. The pair was down 3.3% in Asian session on Monday, remaining under increased pressure after downbeat US NFP data further...
Could Data Open the Door to RBNZ Cut Next Week?
Market in crisis mode after Friday’s US labour report An RNBZ rate cut could be on the cards if data weakens China’s problems hamper progress in the region Kiwi in desperate need of good data prints Markets in disarray With the market digesting last week’s events,...
Gold Rally in Question – Action Forex
Gold is lower today, but close to recent highs Geopolitics and dollar underperformance support gold Momentum indicators are tentatively bullish Gold is trading lower again today, recording its third consecutive red candle, but remaining a tad below its recent all-time...
Eurozone PMI composite finalized at 50.2, growing at snail’s pace
Eurozone PMI Services was finalized at 51.9 in July, down from June’s 52.8, a 4-month low. PMI Composite was finalized at 50.2, down from June’s 50.9, a 5-month low. These figures indicate a slowing economy as the services sector loses momentum and the industrial...
FX option expiries for 5 August 10am New York cut
There aren't any major expiries to take note of on the day. And in any case, this is a market currently driven by emotions more than anything else. As such, that matters more to price action rather than any specific levels on the charts. That especially if you're...
Market Rout Deepens Globally: Will ISM Services Provide Relief?
The global market turmoil showed no signs of easing as the week began, with Japanese stocks taking a severe hit during Asian session. Both the Nikkei 225 and Topix indices plunged by as much as nearly -10%, marking a -20% drop from their all-time highs on July 11....
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/CHF’s decline form 0.9928 resumed last week and accelerated to as low as 0.9352. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 100% projection of 0.9928 to 0.94767 from 0.9772 at 0.9320.Strong support could emerge above 0.9252 low to bring rebound. But near...
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/GBP’s rise from 0.8382 accelerated higher last week and the strong break of 0.8498 resistance argues that fall form 0.8643 has completed with five waves down to 0.8382. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for channel resistance (now at (now at 0.8560)....
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/JPY’s fall from 175.41 continued last week accelerated further. This decline is now seen as a larger scale correction. Initial bias remains on the downside for 155.91 fibonacci level next. On the upside, above 163.41 minor resistance will turn intraday bias...
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/JPY’s fall from 208.09 continued last week and accelerated further. This decline is as correcting the whole rally from 148.93. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 185.49 fibonacci level. On the upside, above 193.23 minor resistance will turn intraday...
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CAD’s rise from 1.3176 resumed by breaking through 1.3845 resistance last week. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 61.8% projection of 1.3176 to 1.3845 from 1.3588 at 1.4025 next. For now break of 1.3786 support is needed to indicate short term...
AUD/USD Weekly Report – Action Forex
AUD/USD edged lower to 0.6479 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week for some more consolidations. But further decline is expected as long as 0.6609 minor resistance holds. Break of 0.6479 will resume the fall from 0.6798 to...
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/USD’s fall from 1.3043 extended to 1.2706 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week and further fall is in favor as long as 1.2863 resistance holds. Below 1.2706 will target 1.2612 support first. Decisive break there should confirm...
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/JPY’s fall from 161.94 accelerated lower last week and there is no sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 140.25 support next. On the upside, above 150.88 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations...
Summary 8/5 – 8/9
Monday, Aug 5, 2024 Tuesday, Aug 6, 2024 Wednesday, Aug 7, 2024 Thursday, Aug 8, 2024 Friday, Aug 9, 2024 The post Summary 8/5 – 8/9 appeared first on Action Forex.
Market Turmoil Intensifies With Deepening Recession Fears
The financial markets were marked by significant turbulence this last week again, dominated by risk aversion. Evidence are surfacing that the US economy is heading for a recession, or even hard landing. Speculation is mounting that Fed might be compelled to implement...
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
While the dip to 1.0776 was deeper than expected, EUR/USD’s subsequent strong rebound suggests that pullback from 1.0947 has completed already. Initial bias stays on the upside for retesting 1.0947 first. Firm break there will target 100% projection of 1.0665 to...
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CHF’s fall from 0.9223 accelerated lower last week and there is no sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and deeper decline would be seen to retest 0.8332 low. On the upside, above 0.8662 minor resistance will turn intraday bias...
EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/AUD’s rise from 1.5996 extended through 1.6742 resistance last week despite interim pullback. The development strengthens the case that corrective fall from 1.7062 has completed with three waves down to 1.5998. Initial bias is on the upside this week for retesting...
Bitcoin Fends Off Bear Attack, Clinging to Levels
Market picture The crypto market lost 0.75% in 24 hours to $2.29 trillion. A day earlier, we noted a decline in cryptocurrencies in contrast to the positivity in equities on Wednesday, and then synchronised selling prevailed on Thursday. Meanwhile, the sentiment index...
EUR/CHF: Medium-Term Global Risk-Off Kickstarts
Further weakness in the US ISM Manufacturing PMI & Employment sub-component increases the risk of a hard landing scenario. A Fed interest rate cut that is implemented late in the US economic cycle where a downturn may be already in motion sees the evaporation of...
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary: The Downside Risks to the Employment Mandate Are Real Now
Summary United States: “The Downside Risks to the Employment Mandate Are Real Now” We have just concluded what will become a historic week. The July employment report brought with it a crossing of the Sahm Rule threshold. That means we’re either headed for recession,...
The Weekly Bottom Line: It’s A Different World
U.S. Highlights Nonfarm payroll gains came in lower than expected in July, with the unemployment rate heading higher. The numbers add to other data suggesting that the U.S. labor market is losing steam. While the Federal Reserve held rates steady at their July meeting...
Markets Weekly Outlook – Rising US Job Fears, Geopolitics in the Spotlight
US jobs data underwhelmed, triggering the SAHM rule, signaling a likely recession. The Magnificent 7 tech companies have lost nearly $1.75 trillion in market capitalization over the past 10 days. Rate cut bets for the US face significant revisions with recessionary...
US non-farm payrolls grow 114k in Jul, unemployment rate rises to 4.3%
US non-farm payroll employment grew only 114k in July, well below expectation of 176k. That’s all well below average monthly gain of 215k over the prior 12 months. Unemployment rate jumped from 4.1% to 4.3%, above expectation of 4.1%. Participation rate ticked up by...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.42; (P) 151.16; (R1) 152.72; More… USD/JPY’s steep decline from 161.94 reaccelerates to as low as 147.01 so far. There is no sign of bottoming yet and intraday bias stays on the downside. Next target is 140.25 fibonacci level. On the upside,...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8753; (P) 0.8797; (R1) 0.8823; More… USD/CHF’s decline from 0.9223 continues today and break of near term falling channel support indicates downside acceleration. Intraday bias stays on the downside. Sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2830; (P) 1.2847; (R1) 1.2873; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral first with current strong recovery. Another fall will remain in favor as long as 1.2863 resistance holds. Below 1.2706 will target 1.2612 support. However, firm break...
US: Job Market Continued to Cool in July, Markets Up Ante on Rate Cuts
Non-farm employment rose by 114k in July, considerably below the consensus forecast calling for a larger gain of 175k. Job gains in the two prior months were revised a bit lower, subtracting a combined 29k from the previously reported figures. Private payrolls rose...
Swiss Franc Jumps After Soft US Job Numbers
The Swiss franc has posted sharp gains in the North American session on Friday. USD/CHF is currently trading at 0.8754, up 0.86% on the day. The Swiss franc is on a roll and is trading at its highest level since the end of January. Swiss inflation declined 0.2%, in...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Markets are trembling. US payrolls missed expectations by a significant margin as employment only grew by 114k (175k consensus). Last month’s reading was revised down by about 30k. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.3%, the highest since Oct 2021,...
July Employment: That Was Sahm Jobs Reports
Summary The ongoing deterioration in the jobs market was on full display in the July Employment report. Nonfarm payrolls posted the second smallest gain in 3.5 years with an increase of 114K, average hourly earnings growth eased to 3.6% year-over-year and the...
Canada’s July Employment Report Will Confirm a Weaker Labour Market
The Canadian jobs report for July next Friday is expected to show more softening in the labour market. Employment gains have already slowed substantially into the summer, and we expect July will be no exception with 15,000 new jobs added. Against a still rapidly...
USD/JPY Outlook: Falls Further on Weaker than Expected NFP Numbers
USDJPY fell sharply (down 1% in immediate reaction to US jobs data) after US NFP dipped well below expectations in July (114K vs 176K f/c), while June’s figure was revised down to 179K from initial 206K. Unemployment unexpectedly rose to 4.3% in July from 4.1% June /...
Week Ahead – RBA and BoJ Summary of Opinions Take Center Stage
RBA decides on policy as hike bets disappear BoJ Summary of Opinions awaited for more hike hints After Fed, dollar turns to ISM non-mfg PMI New Zealand and Canada jobs data also on tap Will the RBA turn dovish? Following the BoJ, the Fed, and the BoE decisions this...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0802; (P) 1.0826; (R1) 1.0849; More….. EUR/USD’s strong rebound and break of 1.0869 resistance suggests that pullback from 1.0947 has completed as a correction a 1.0776. More importantly, rise from 1.0601 is probably still in progress. Intraday...
Risk Aversion Deepens as US Non-Farm Payrolls Fall Short of Expectations
Risk aversion is intensifying in early US session after non-farm payroll report significantly missed expectations on all fronts. This follows yesterday’s poor manufacturing data, which has already sparked discussions about a hard landing for the US economy. The weak...
Gold (XAU/USD) Continues to Surge: New Highs as Fed Rate Cut Looms
The price of gold (XAUUSD) continues its upward trajectory, hitting a new peak at 2460 USD per troy ounce on Friday. The surge in gold prices is largely driven by growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve will soon reduce interest rates. This anticipation has...
USD/JPY – Surging Yen Improves to 15-week High
The Japanese yen continues to rally. USD/JPY is trading at 148.86 in the European session, down 0.31% on the day at the time of writing. On Thursday, the yen strengthened as much as 148.50, its best showing since May 11. Yen continues to pummel US dollar Only three...
USD/CHF Falls to Lowest Level in Nearly Six Months
As today’s USD/CHF chart shows, the exchange rate has fallen below 0.872 – the Swiss franc hasn’t been this strong against the US dollar since early February this year. Bearish sentiment is driven by: → Expectations of a Fed rate cut, weakening the US dollar; → Low...
Market Analysis: Gold Price Regains Strength While Oil Price Takes Hit
Gold price started another increase and surpassed the $2,440 resistance. Crude oil is showing bearish signs and might decline below $75.00. Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today Gold price started a steady increase from the $2,420 zone against the...
GBP/USD Outlook: Remains in Red But Bears Face Headwinds from Daily Cloud Top
Cable remains in red in early Friday, following Thursday’s 0.9% drop (the biggest daily loss since Apr 10) as fresh risk aversion deflated sterling. Bears extended to one-month low but find a footstep at 1.2706 (top of thick ascending daily cloud) and may pause here,...
WTI Crude Oil Hovers Beneath 200-day SMA
WTI trades within symmetrical triangle 20- and 50-day SMAs are ready for bearish cross WTI crude oil is moving back and forth from the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), with a strong resistance area near the potential bearish crossover between the 20- and 50-day...
USDCAD Hits 8-Month High, But It’s Not a Victory Yet
USDCAD marks new higher high after disappointing ISM manufacturing PMI A close above 1.3880-1.3900 is needed to postpone profit-taking US nonfarm payrolls eagerly awaited at 12:30 GMT USDCAD began the month on a positive note, swiftly recovering from its recent...
AUDUSD Declines to Fresh 2-month Low
AUDUSD extends retreat to its lowest since May 1 Oscillators are flagging oversold conditions AUDUSD has been in a steady retreat since July 11, violating both its 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). Although the pair posted a fresh two-month low on...
Market Turmoil Boosts Safe Haven Currencies ahead of NFP, GBP/CHF Under Pressure
Safe haven currencies are dominating the market as the steep selloff in the US extended into Asian trading, with Nikkei down more than -5%. Poor US manufacturing data released overnight has intensified investor concerns about an impending recession, overshadowing the...
FX option expiries for 2 August 10am New York cut
There isn't anything too significant on the board for today but there are some to be wary about. The first one is for USD/CAD at 1.3900, where the expiries are decent in size. It coincides with key resistance around the 2022 and 2023 highs, so the expiries could help...
BTCUSD Retreats from 1-Month High
BTCUSD pulls back after touching the 70,000 mark The bears eye the 50-day SMA as next crucial target Momentum indicators are skewed to the downside BTCUSD (Bitcoin) had a very strong July, with the price reaching the 70,000 psychological mark for the first time in...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2830; (P) 1.2847; (R1) 1.2873; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside for the moment. Fall from 1.3043 is in progress. Decisive break of 55 D EMA (now at 1.2782) will suggest that rise from 1.2298 has completed with three waves up...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0802; (P) 1.0826; (R1) 1.0849; More….. EUR/USD’s fall from 1.0947 resumed by breaking through 1.0797 temporary low and intraday bias is back on the downside. Current development suggest that rebound from 1.0601 has completed with three waves up to...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8753; (P) 0.8797; (R1) 0.8823; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside for the moment. Current fall from 0.9223 is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 0.8332 to 0.9223 at 0.8672 next. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long...
The Crypto Market Pulled Back Further into the Range
Market picture Cryptocurrencies continued to sag, failing to support gains in the stock market, returning the crypto market cap to $2.30trn levels seen a week ago. The market formed another lower local peak, a sequence that has been in place since March. A move...
Bank of England Review – Easing Commences But No Game-Changer for GBP
At today’s monetary policy meeting, the Bank of England decided to cut the Bank Rate by 25bp to 5.00%. A tight vote split, the notion of it being a finely balanced decision to cut rates and a mention of upside risks to the inflation forecast, gave the cut a slight...
GBP/USD Outlook: Limited Negative Impact from BoE Rate Cut
Cable traded in a choppy mode with limited downside after BOE rate cut and regained traction on much higher than expected US jobless claims. The pair returned above 1.2800 mark after hitting the lowest in almost one month (1.2750), with subsequent bounce signaling...
Bank of England Joins Central Bank Rate Cut Club
Summary The Bank of England (BoE) joined the growing group of G10 central banks that have eased monetary policy, by delivering an initial 25 bps policy rate cut to 5.00% at today’s monetary policy announcement. The guidance from the BoE’s announcement was also...
Will US Nonfarm Payrolls Steal The Show This Week?
US nonfarm payrolls to be released on Friday, 12:30 GMT Analysts estimate softer employment conditions in July Gold might push for an uptrend resumption if jobs data disappoint Will July’s NFP report be a game-changer? Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report will not be the...
US ISM manufacturing drops to 46.8, reflecting deepening contraction
US ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped from 48.5 to 46.8 in July, falling below the expected 48.8. This marks the fourth consecutive month of contraction for the manufacturing sector, with the decline accelerating. New orders fell from 49.3 to 47.4, indicating that demand...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets After the Fed’s most clear pivot towards imminent rate cuts yesterday, the Bank of England thought it could do even better. It cut the policy rate by 25 bps to 5% in a 5-4 split vote. For “some” in the group of 5 it was a finely balanced decision – similar to...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.42; (P) 151.16; (R1) 152.72; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for the moment. Strong support could be seen from 148.66 fibonacci level to bring consolidations. On the upside, above 151.93 support turned resistance will turn...
Sterling Stabilizes After Initial Selloff, BoE Easing Not Automatic Despite First Cut
Sterling suffered an initial sell-off in European trading and remained weak following BoE’s decision to cut the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 5.00%. However, it stabilized during Governor Andrew Bailey’s press conference. The tight 5-4 vote to cut the rate...
GBP/USD Under Pressure as Market Anticipates Bank of England Rate Decision
The British pound sterling continues to decline steadily against the US dollar. The GBP/USD pair is trending towards 1.2848. On the one hand, the pressure from the USD rate is evident. On the other hand, investors are awaiting the outcome of today’s Bank of England...
(BOE) Bank Rate reduced to 5%
Monetary Policy Summary, August 2024 The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment. The MPC adopts a medium-term and forward-looking approach to determine the monetary...
BoE cuts Bank Rate by 25bps to 5.00% in 5-4 tight vote
BoE cut the Bank Rate by 25 bps to 5.00% today, in a closely contested 5-4 vote. Governor Andrew Bailey, Deputy Sarah Breeden, new Deputy Clare Lombardelli, known dove Swati Dhingra, and Dave Ramsden voted in favor of the cut. Chief Economist Huw Pill, Megan Greene,...
USD/JPY Falls Below 150 Yen Per Dollar
The yen was last this strong in mid-March this year. News from central banks contributed to the decline in USD/JPY. Yesterday, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates to levels not seen in the past 15 years. Conversely, the Fed kept rates unchanged as expected but...
WTT: Top Trade Ideas for August
For the month of August, I have my eyes set on three pairs for my swing trading opportunities during the course of the month. Asides these three, most of my other trade ideas will be executed on lower timeframes, and with more conservative targets in mind. Do note, as...
UK manufacturing PMI finalized at 52.1, inflation pressure moving to manufacturing sector
UK PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 52.1 in July, up from June’s 50.9. Production growth was the fastest since February 2022, while input price inflation hit an 18-month high. Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, noted that UK manufacturing...
GBPJPY Selling Drama Stretches Below 200-EMA
GBPJPY’s massive sell-off continues, reaches 3-month low Short-term risk bearish but oversold conditions detected BoE policy announcement might influence GBP at 11:30 GMT GBPJPY suffered another bold attack this week, giving back 8% of its value since its peak at a...
Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 45.8, recovering taking a hit
Eurozone’s PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 45.8 in July, unchanged from June, indicating ongoing contraction. PMI Manufacturing Output fell from 46.1 to 45.6, a 7-month low. Input costs increased at the fastest rate in a year and a half. Among countries, Greece led...
FX option expiries for 1 August 10am New York cut
There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 level. That could help to draw in price action with the 200-hour moving average seen nearby at 1.0847 currently. But if anything else, it should keep...
Dollar Steady Following FOMC, BoE Rate Decision Looms
Dollar remained relatively steady following the balanced post-FOMC press conference, with notable exceptions against the stronger yen and Swiss franc. Fed Chair Jerome Powell explicitly mentioned the possibility of a rate cut in September but refrained from making any...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.86; (P) 153.54; (R1) 154.43; More… USD/JPY’s fall from 161.94 accelerates lower again to as low as 149.77 so far. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 148.66 fibonacci level, which is close to medium term channel support (now at 148.22)....
Canada’s Economy Advanced in May, Modest Growth Expected in June
The Canadian economy grew for a second consecutive month, up by 0.2% month-on-month (m/m). This print landed ahead of Statistics Canada’s advanced guidance and market expectations of a 0.1% m/m gain. The flash estimate for June points to a 0.1% m/m gain. May’s reading...
(FED) Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have moderated, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains somewhat elevated. In recent months, there...
Fed holds steady at 5.25-5.50%, keeps rate cut plans unclear
Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50%, as widely anticipated, with a unanimous vote. The accompanying statement closely mirrored June’s guidance for future decisions, maintaining that the Fed is “prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8810; (P) 0.8843; (R1) 0.8860; More… USD/CHF is holding above 0.8776 support despite today’s dip and intraday bias remains neutral. More consolidations could still be seen but further decline is expected as long as 0.8923 resistance holds. On the...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets The biggest moves in markets ahead of tonight’s Fed policy meeting happened in the Japanese yen. A not completely expected rate hike to 0.25% by the Bank of Japan this morning, accompanied by a bond taper programme, took some investors off guard. In a hawkish...
GBP/JPY Accelerates Lower After BoJ Rate Hike
GBPJPY extends steep downtrend by dropping 1.7% on Wednesday and on track for the biggest daily drop since 12 July 2023, after BOJ rate hike further boosted yen, while sterling remains deflated by growing expectations that BoE would deliver a 25 basis points rate cut...
Bank of Japan Hikes Rates Further, Slows Bond Buying
Summary The Bank of Japan (BoJ) sprung a mild surprise at today’s announcement, raising its policy rate to around 0.25%, from around 0% to 0.1% previously. The BoJ also said it would reduce the pace of its bond purchases to around ¥3T per month by early 2026. The...
FOMC Rate Decision – Potential Impact on EUR/USD, GBP/USD and Dollar Index
The market anticipates a shift in the Fed’s stance, with three rate cuts now expected in 2024 due to softening economic data. A soft landing remains possible as the labor market cools and inflation shows signs of easing. Technical analysis suggests GBP/USD is...
Month-end fix sees euro selling
A quick round of selling pressure has hit the euro ahead of the month-end London fix.In general, these moves fade after the turn of the hour. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2815; (P) 1.2841; (R1) 1.2863; More… GBP/USD is losing downside momentum as seen in 4H MACD. But further decline is still expected with 1.2936 resistance intact. Decisive break of 55 D EMA (now at 1.2781) will suggest that rise from 1.2298 has...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0797; (P) 1.0816; (R1) 1.0835; More….. Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral with current recovery. But further decline is expected with 1.0869 resistance intact. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 1.0815) will argue that whole rebound from...
EUR/USD Outlook: Rises on EU CPI and US Labor Data, Bear-Trap Forming on Daily Chart
EURUSD bounced on Wednesday after a triple rejection at 1.0800 support zone (50% retracement of 1.0666/1.0948 rally/daily Kijun-sen) signals formation of a bear-trap. Fresh gains were sparked by higher than expected EU inflation numbers in July which improved Euro’s...
US stocks open higher ahead of the FOMC rate decision
The major US stock indices are opening higher ahead of the FOMC rate decision at 2 PM ET. The employment cost data came in a little bit weaker than expectations at 0.9% versus 1.0%. The market is shrugging off the so-so earnings from Microsoft although it started is...
Dollar Dips on Weak ADP While Yen Marches On, Market Awaits FOMC
Dollar dipped as weaker-than-expected ADP job data hit the market entering US session. However, the movement has been limited with traders bracing for FOMC rate decision. Fed is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 5.25-5.50% today. The main focus is...
Canadian GDP grows by 0.2% mom in May, exceeds expectations
Canada’s GDP grew by 0.2% mom in May, surpassing the expected 0.1% mom growth. The primary driver of this growth was the goods-producing industries, which saw a 0.4% increase with four out of five sectors expanding. The services-producing industries also...
USD/JPY Plummets as Bank of Japan Tightens Policy
The USD/JPY pair has experienced a sharp decline, currently at 152.79, following decisive monetary policy adjustments by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). In a significant shift, the BoJ raised its interest rate to 0.25% per annum and unveiled plans to scale back monthly bond...
Gold, Crude Oil Prices Soar on Rising Middle East Tensions, FOMC Next
Gold and oil prices have surged due to rising tensions in the Middle East. Gold with a trendline break as bulls eye $2480/oz, FOMC meeting next. Brent crude oil found support around the 78.00 handle and is currently trading at 80.82 a barrel, with potential for...
Gold Fights With 2,420 Level Within Ichimoku Cloud
Gold rebounds off 2,370 support Prices penetrate short-term downtrend line But momentum oscillators look overstretched Gold prices have been in a bullish corrective mode during the week, paring/reversing some of its losses from July 24. The price has now surpassed the...
USDJPY’s Decline Faces 200-Day SMA
USDJPY extends its retreat from recent 38-year high The bears tested 200-day SMA for first time since January 9 Momentum indicators start to warn of oversold conditions USDJPY has been in a steady retreat from its 38-year peak of 161.94, falling to an almost...
Eurozone CPI rises to 2.6% yoy in Jul, core CPI unchanged at 2.9% yoy
Eurozone CPI rose from 2.5% yoy to 2.6% yoy in July, above expectation of 2.4% yoy. Core CPI (ex-energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) was unchanged at 2.9% yoy, above expectation of 2.8% yoy. Looking at the main components, services is expected to have the highest...
USD/JPY Outlook: Cracks Key 150 Support Zone on Fresh Post-BoJ Acceleration Lower
USDJPY accelerated lower in early European trading on Wednesday, following a mixed immediate reaction on BoJ’s decision to raise interest rate from 0.10% to 0.25% and unveil plan to halve bond buying. The decision was positive for yen and added to currency’s broader...
NZDUSD Poised for Bullish Rotation
NZDUSD rotates higher after touching familiar support zone Technical signals increase the odds for upside reversal FOMC policy announcement might affect USD at 18:00 GMT NZDUSD has had a terrible month, but a bullish rotation this week has brought hope that the...
USD/JPY Technical: JPY Strength Halted Right at 151.70 Support as BoJ Hiked Interest Rate. What’s Next for JPY?
BoJ hiked its overnight interest rate to 0.25% and announced its “Quantitative Tightening” plan, without much major surprises. USD/JPY sold off but still hovering above its 151.70 key short-term support. Cannot rule out the possibility of another minor mean reversion...
FX option expiries for 31 July 10am New York cut
There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.They are for USD/JPY and in a wider range, considering the volatility in the pair as we digest the BOJ decision. There is one at 152.50 which doesn't hold much technical significance. But it could hold...
Yen Up Slightly After BoJ Hike; Aussie Tumbles on Core Inflation Relief
Yen rose broadly today after the BoJ raised interest rates for the second time this year, and maintained hawkish bias. However, buying momentum has not been decisive. This lack of strong momentum can be attributed to the fact that the rate hike decision was likely...
Spooked Bitcoin – Action Forex
Market picture The cryptocurrency market pulled back 3% to a capitalisation of $2.4 trillion, erasing gains for a while due to the Bitcoin conference. For the past week and a half, the market has been predominantly moving in the $2.4-2.5 trillion range. The hesitancy...
USD/JPY – All Eyes on Bank of Japan, Yen Slips
The Japanese yen has sparkled in the second half of July but has lost steam this week. USD/JPY is trading at 154.88 in the European session, up 0.57% on the day at the time of writing. To hike or not to hike The Bank of Japan meets early Wednesday and the markets...
EUR/USD Outlook: Corrects Monday’s Drop, Looks for Fresh Direction Signal
EURUSD edges higher on Tuesday morning after strong fall on Monday was contained by solid support at 1.0807 (daily Kijun-sen / 50% retracement of 1.0666/1.0948 rally) and also failed to register a daily close below cracked converged 55/200DMA’s (1.0815). Monday’s...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2816; (P) 1.2852; (R1) 1.2898; More… No change in GBP/USD’s outlook and intraday bias stays on the downside. Decisive break of 55 D EMA (now at 1.2779) will suggest that rise from 1.2298 has completed with three waves up to 1.3043 Deeper fall...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0793; (P) 1.0831; (R1) 1.0860; More….. EUR/USD’s fall from 1.0947 is in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 1.0815) will argue that whole rebound from 1.0601 has completed with three waves up to...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8831; (P) 0.8851; (R1) 0.8882; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral and consolidations from 0.8776 could extend. Further decline is expected as long as 0.8923 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 0.8776 will resume the fall from...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.25; (P) 153.80; (R1) 154.58; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral at this point. Further decline is in favor as long as 155.36 support turned resistance holds. On the downside, decisive break of 151.89 resistance turned support will...
AUD/USD Outlook: Holds in Extended Consolidation Above Strong Supports
AUDUSD remains in extended consolidation around the base of thick daily cloud (0.6538), and above pivotal Fibo support at 0.6528 (61.8% of 0.6362/0.6798), following a steep fall in past nine days. Bears are taking a breather on stretched daily studies, but remain in...
US consumer confidence rises to 100.3, staying in narrow range prevails over two years
US Conference Board Consumer Confidence rose from 97.8 to 100.3 in July, above expectation of 99.8. Present Situation Index fell from 135.3 to 133.6. But Expectations Index rose from 72.8 to 78.2. Nevertheless, Expectations reading below 80 usually signals a recession...
Is BoE Really Close to Announcing a Rate Cut?
BoE meets on Thursday with a rate cut firmly on the cards Data has been positive but doves in control of the committee Pound could suffer on Thursday but still favoured against the euro Rate announcement at 11.00 GMT with the press conference held 30 minutes later The...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets A slew of European data hit the wires today and after wrapping up this report some more are scheduled for release in the US (JOLTS, consumer confidence). GDP Q2 growth numbers were due in Hungary and the Czech Republic (see below), in core countries including...
Major indices are higher in early US trade. AMD, MIcrosoft, Starbucks and Pinterest report
The major indices are higher in early US trade. After the close AMD, Microsoft, Starbucks, and Pinterest report earnings. Microsoft shares are trading up $2.15 or 0.50% in early trading.A snapshot of the market 12 minutes into the open is showing: Dow Industrial...
Quiet Forex Trading with Dollar Leading, AUD/JPY at Make-or-Break Level
Overall trading in the forex markets remained relatively subdued today. Dollar continues to hold the top position, despite the absence of clear follow-through buying momentum. Investor caution is also evident in US stock futures, which are moving within a tight range....
Has Rally in GBPCAD Peaked?
GBPCAD stabilizes near 3-year high, at the top of a bullish channel Technical signals flag weaker sessions ahead; bears eye 1.7700 level GBPCAD is in the fifth week of gains, having exponentially risen to 1.7849 last week– the highest level reached since March 2021....
EURJPY Stubbornly Fights for An Upturn
EURJPY remains resilient above pivotal territory Some recovery likely, but short-term risk not bullish yet Eurozone Q2 GDP growth +0.3% q/q vs +0.2% q/q expected EURJPY is making another attempt to pierce through the 168.00 level and the support-turned-resistance...
WTI Oil: At the Risk of Further Drop to Retest Major Range Support of US$73.15-71.35/Barrel
Citigroup Economic Surprise Indices across the different regions (except for Latin America) on average are suggesting lackluster economic growth. US crude oil inventories (excluding SPR) are showing signs of a build-up. Technical factors are suggesting further...
NZD/USD Sinks to Three-Month Minimum, Driven by Rate Speculation and Strengthening USD
The NZD/USD pair plummeted to 0.5892, marking a significant three-month low. The New Zealand dollar remains under pressure as the US dollar gains strength due to the start of the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting. The Fed is expected to leave the interest rate in the...
GBP/USD Stalls as Bulls and Bears Clash Ahead of Central Bank Meetings
The GBP/USD pair is currently experiencing a standoff between bulls and bears, with the pair clinging to support at the 1.2850 level. The upcoming Federal Reserve and Bank of England policy meetings are adding to market uncertainty, with the odds of a BoE rate cut...
CADJPY: Trade of the Week
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) weakened on Monday as it lagged behind the strengthening US Dollar ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. This week, the CAD is underrepresented on the economic calendar, making it susceptible to broader market movements and central...
Swiss KOF falls to 101, signals moderate growth ahead
Swiss KOF Economic Barometer fell from 102.7 to 101.0 in July, missing the expected 102.6. This drop indicates that the Swiss economy is likely to continue growing at a “rather moderate pace” in the near future, according to KOF. The decline, while not unanimous...
Eurozone GDP grows 0.3% qoq in Q2, above expectation 0.2% qoq
Eurozone GDP grew 0.3% qoq in Q2, better than expectation of 0.2% qoq. EU GDP also grew 0.3% qoq. Comparing with the same quarter a year ago, Eurozone GDP grew 0.6% yoy while EU grew 0.7% yoy. Among the Member States for which data are available , Ireland (+1.2%)...
US 100 Index Stops at Uptrend Line; Positive Risks Not Faded Yet
US 100 heads up, standing beneath short-term rising trend line Stochastics point north above oversold region RSI ticks higher below 50 level The US 100 (cash) index had a strong pullback off the 18,715 support, failing to extend its dive from the all-time high of...
GBPUSD Extends Pullback From 1-Year High
GBPUSD declines steadily from 1-year high The bears eye the 50-day SMA as next target Momentum indicators ease but remain positively tilted GBPUSD had been on the rise following its bounce off the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) in late June. Although the pair...
FX option expiries for 30 July 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.The first one being for USD/JPY at the 155.00 mark. It's a key area where offers are also lined up, so the expiries will add to a bit of resistance in preventing any major upside extension in the session...
Dollar Holds Firm Against Euro in Quiet Trading, Cautious Sentiment Prevails
Dollar remains firm against European majors in relatively quiet trading today. Despite slightly better-than-expected GDP data from France, Euro has not gained significant support. While today’s Eurozone GDP and tomorrow’s CPI flash are important, they are unlikely to...
USD/JPY Looking for Direction – Action Forex
The Japanese yen continues to show volatility but has closed right where it started over the past few sessions. USD/JPY is trading at 153.65 in the European session, up 0.04% on the day. The yen is coming off an excellent week, surging 2.3% against the US dollar....
USD/JPY Technical: Potential Mean Reversion Rebound in Progress Above 200-day MA
Last week’s drop of 2.8% seen in the USD/JPY has almost reached a key support of 151.70. An overstretched decline with high volatility on top of an oversold condition increases the odds of a mean reversion rebound scenario for USD/JPY. Watch the potential upside...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0843; (P) 1.0855; (R1) 1.0869; More….. EUR/USD’s fall from 1.0947 resumed by breaking 1.0825 temporary low and intraday bias is back on the downside. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 1.0815) will argue that whole rebound from 1.0601 has...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2851; (P) 1.2866; (R1) 1.2883; More… GBP/USD’s fall from 1.3043 extends lower today and intraday bias is back on the downside with break of 1.2859 resistance turned support. Decisive break of 55 D EMA (now at 1.2776) will suggest that rise from...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8812; (P) 0.8828; (R1) 0.8853; More… No change in USD/CHF’s outlook and intraday bias stays neutral for consolidations above 0.8776 temporary low. Further decline is expected as long as 0.8923 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 0.8776...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.96; (P) 153.85; (R1) 154.59; More… No change in USD/JPY’s outlook and intraday bias remains neutral for consolidation above 151.93. Further decline is expected as long as 155.36 support turned resistance holds. On the downside, decisive break of...
USDJPY Struggles to Reclaim 20-Period SMA
USDJPY caught in a battle to overcome 20-period SMA Near-term momentum is positive but weak Bulls face an uphill struggle to regain control USDJPY has started the week on a somewhat positive note but it’s proving difficult for the bulls to secure the upper hand as a...
Key Euro Area Data Overshadowed by Developments Elsewhere
Fed meeting and Middle East developments in the foreground Tuesday’s eurozone GDP figures could produce a surprise Wednesday’s inflation report unlikely to unsettle ECB expectations Euro remains under pressure against the pound Fed meeting overshadows key Euro area...
Will BoJ Raise Rates at this Policy Meeting?
BoJ may shake the market with a rate hike The bank plans to unveil a strategy to roughly halve bond Yen recoups some losses with notable bullish correction Decision is due on Wednesday at 03:00 GMT Will BoJ hike rates on Wednesday? At its next meeting, the Bank of...
Nikkei rebounds on short covering, but downside threats remain
Nikkei rebounded strongly during Asian session, closing up by more than 800 points or 2.13%. This marked the index’s first day of gains in nine sessions, following a three-month low last week. The stabilization in US tech stocks on Friday helped calm investor...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Today has mostly been a waiting game in the run-up to an economic calendar that shifts into higher gear starting from tomorrow. The were few to no signs of worry about a potential escalation in the Gaza war after Israel retaliated over the weekend on what it...
Dollar Rally Gains Momentum as European Majors Falter
Dollar’s rally is gaining significant traction today, as major European currencies face increasing selling pressure. The break of last week’s lows in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs suggests that the greenback’s rise is poised to extend further in the near term....
USD Analysis: Key Data Releases and Technical Outlook for the Week and intraday. EURUSD
Fundamental Analysis In the absence of high-impact data on Monday, July 29, 2024, market sentiment is focused on the key data releases for the week. First, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision is set for Wednesday. While no rate change is expected, any...
Nikkei rebounds on short covering, but downside threats remain
Nikkei rebounded strongly during Asian session, closing up by more than 800 points or 2.13%. This marked the index’s first day of gains in nine sessions, following a three-month low last week. The stabilization in US tech stocks on Friday helped calm investor...
US 500 Index Bounces Off Long-Term Uptrend Line
US 500 bearish correction in short-term is not enough for retracement Momentum oscillators turn up The US 500 (cash) index rebounded significantly off the long-term ascending trend line and surpassed beyond the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). The bearish correctio...
News of the Week (July 29— August 2): GBPJPY Review
The GBPJPY pair, representing the exchange rate between the British Pound and the Japanese Yen, is a pivotal gauge of economic interactions between the United Kingdom and Japan. The British Pound is influenced by domestic factors such as political stability, financial...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 196.72; (P) 197.93; (R1) 198.96; More… Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for consolidations above 195.84 temporary low. Further decline is expected as long as 202.08 support turned resistance holds. On the downside, sustained trading below...
USD/CAD: Bullish Impulse Calling for Breakout
USDCAD is making a pretty strong rise after the Bank of Canada lowered rates by 25 basis points as expected last week. The price is now testing the major trend line resistance of this triangle on the daily chart, and we are wondering if we can see a breakout, which is...
Gold Bounces Off 50-Day SMA
Gold was retreating from its all-time high But the 50-day SMA prevented further declines Despite latest weakness, oscillators remain neutral-to-positive Gold had been in a strong uptrend since late May, which led to a fresh all-time high of 2,483 on July 17. Although...
Will Fed Signal a September Rate Cut?
Fed sees inflation on a path to remain low Investors expect three 25bps rate cuts by January Fed to keep rates untouched, focus on guidance The decision is published on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT Data bolster Fed’s confidence At its latest gathering in June, the FOMC...
AUD/USD Gains Amid Anticipation for Key Economic Data
The AUD/USD pair is climbing towards 0.6552 on Monday. The Australian dollar is bouncing back from a 12-week low as investors await Australian inflation data. In the past two weeks, the AUD, in the currency pair with the USD, has fallen more than 3%. This happened...
WTI Outlook: Oil Price Rises on Growing Geopolitical Tensions But Still Holding Under Key Resistances
WTI oil opened with gap higher on Monday, as supply worries rose after the latest escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, which threatens of deepening crisis. The price bounced from last week’s low, retracing around 50% of Friday’s 2.4% drop, but so far holding...
Quiet Forex Session Precedes Three Central Bank Meetings and High-Impact Data
Trading in the forex markets has been notably subdued during the Asian session today, even as major Asian stock indexes showed strong rebounds. This muted activity in currency trading is not surprising given that it’s a typical Monday, coupled with an ultra light...
FX option expiries for 29 July 10am New York cut
There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for USD/JPY at the 154.00 mark. Amid the bigger swings in the past two weeks, the expiry level might be one to watch in terms of keeping a lid on price action in the session...
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast – Action Forex
EUR/USD: Europe is Not Doing Very Well, the US is Not Doing Very Badly The main events in the currency market will unfold in the upcoming week, with meetings scheduled for Wednesday, 31 July, when the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve’s FOMC (Federal Open Market...
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/CHF’s fall from 0.9772 extended to 0.9519 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias is turned neutral this week for consolidations first. Further decline is expected as long as 0.9641 support turned resistance holds. Rebound from 0.9476 should have...
EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/AUD’s rise from 1.5996 accelerated to as high as 1.6642 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Further rally is expected as long as 1.6384 support holds. Corrective fall from 1.7062 should have completed with...
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/GBP’s recovery from 0.8382 extended higher last week but outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8498 resistance holds. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Firm break of 0.8382 will resume larger down trend. In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.9267...
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/JPY’s fall from 175.41 accelerated to as low as 164.81 last week, but recovered ahead of 164.29 resistance turned support. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 169.98 resistance holds. On the...
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/JPY’s fall from 208.09 accelerated to as low as 195.84 last week, but recovered after breaching 38.2% retracement of 178.32 to 208.09 at 196.71 briefly. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 202.08...
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CAD surged to as high as 1.3848 last week and breached 1.3845 high, but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and some more consolidations could be seen. Further rally is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.3755) holds....
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CHF edged lower to 0.8776 last week but recovered again. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. As long as 0.8923 resistance holds, further decline is expected. On the downside, break of 0.8776 will resume the fall from 0.9223 to 61.8% retracement of 0.8332...
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/USD gyrated lower last week but failed to break through 1.2859 resistance turned support decisively. Initial bias remains neutral first. Further rally is in favor. Break of 1.3043 will resume the rise from 1.2298. However, firm break of 1.2859 will turn bias to...
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/JPY’s fall from 161.94 extended to as low as 151.93 last week, but recovered after breaching 151.98 resistance turned support briefly. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 155.36 support turned...
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/USD dipped to 1.0825 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and further fall is in favor as long as 1.0896 minor resistance holds. Below 1.0825 will target 55 D EMA (now at 1.0815). Sustained break there will argue...
Multiple Themes Play Out in Turbulent Week, Yield Curve De-Inversion Most Significant
It was a highly volatile week which cannot be characterized by a single theme. Yen had a sharp and robust rally against all major currencies, continuing its rebound from the 38-year lows hit earlier this month, with market participants unwinding their long-held short...
AUD/USD Weekly Report – Action Forex
AUD/USD’s fall from 0.6798 accelerated to as low as 0.6513 last week but recovered after breaching 61.8% retracement of 0.6361 to 0.6798 at 0.6528 briefly. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Further fall is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at...
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Wake Me Up When September Ends
Summary United States: Economic Resilience or Reticence? The U.S. economy defied expectations in the second quarter, expanding at a 2.8% annualized pace. Despite the upside surprise, we still see enough softening in inflation and signs of stress to warrant a rate cut...
The Weekly Bottom Line: All Eyes on Next Week’s Fed Meeting
U.S. Highlights The U.S. economy accelerated in the second quarter, growing by 2.8% (annualized), up from 1.4% in the first quarter. At the same time, inflation cooled to 2.5% year-on-year (y/y) in June, as measured by the personal consumption expenditure deflator....
Markets Weekly Outlook: Central Banks and US Earnings. Will BoJ Hike Rates?
Global markets experienced a volatile week, influenced by a tech selloff, China growth concerns, and anticipation of central bank decisions and US earnings reports Despite the volatility and tech led selloff, US equity funds saw inflows. Central bank meetings,...
Summary 7/29 – 8/2
Monday, Jul 29, 2024 Tuesday, Jul 30, 2024 Wednesday, Jul 31, 2024 Thursday, Aug 1, 2024 Friday, Aug 2, 2024 The post Summary 7/29 – 8/2 appeared first on Action Forex.
USD/CAD Rally Pauses: Awaiting Next Correction
The USD/CAD pair ended its continuous upward trend on Friday, 26 June 2024, settling around 1.3813, signalling a potential shift towards correction. The Bank of Canada decided to lower the interest rate from 4.75% p.a. to 4.50% p.a. at its meeting this week. Overall,...
Oil Price Reversal Ahead? Chart Patterns Indicate Possible Bounce at Support
Oil prices have faced challenges recently, but buying pressure prevented a drop below $80. Technical indicators suggest potential for an upward bounce, with key resistance levels to watch. Fundamental factors like Canadian wildfires, US stockpiles, and rate cut...
Gold Technical: Recent Sell-off May Have Reached a Potential Bullish Reversal Level at US$2,353
The recent weakness seen in Gold (XAU/USD) is likely to be driven by US politics as the “Gold premium” has moved in synch with the betting odds of Republican nominee Trump winning the US Presidential Election. The US Treasury market is likely to take a driver’s seat...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.48; (P) 153.40; (R1) 154.86; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidations continue above 151.93 temporary low. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 155.36 support turned resistance holds. Decisive break of 151.89...
US: Consumers Close Q2 on an Upbeat Note, But Momentum Unlikely to be Sustained
Personal income grew 0.2% month-on-month (m/m) in June, down from May’s 0.4% gain, and below market expectations (also 0.4%). Accounting for inflation and taxes, real personal disposable income growth slowed in June, up 0.1% m/m, relative to a 0.3% gain in May...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8776; (P) 0.8818; (R1) 0.8858; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF is turned neutral with current recovery, and some consolidations would be seen above 0.8776 temporary low. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.8923 resistance holds. Break of...
Canadian GDP Growth to Slow, U.S. Fed to Stand Pat
The week ahead is a busy one on the data calendar with the release of Canada’s gross domestic product for May and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates on Wednesday, followed by U.S. payroll employment data on Friday. Canadian GDP data should continue...
Week Ahead – BoJ, Fed and BoE Meetings: A Hike, a Hold and a Cut?
A trio of central bank decisions coming up from the BoJ, Fed and BoE One might hike, one might stand pat and the other cut rates ECB to also be in focus as Eurozone flash GDP and CPI data are due Week will culminate with crucial US jobs report BoJ expected to taper;...
Bank of England Preview – A Dovish Hold; Limited EUR/GBP Downside Potential
We expect the Bank of England (BoE) to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 5.25% on 1 August. We stress that it is a very close call not least due to the very limited amount of communication from the MPC over the past months. Overall, we expect the BoE to deliver a dovish...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Markets finally took a breather this morning after recent sharp risk-off repositioning especially in equities and interest rates. However, it doesn’t feel as if a sharp, sustained countermove is already in store. Initial ‘gains’ in yields, gradually...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2822; (P) 1.2876; (R1) 1.2903; More… No change in GBP/USD’s outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is expected with 1.2859 resistance turned support intact. Break of 1.3043 will resume the rise from 1.2298. However, firm break of...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0825; (P) 1.0848; (R1) 1.0867; More….. Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. Deeper fall is in favor as long as 1.0896 minor resistance holds. Below 1.0825 will target 55 D EMA (now at 1.0813). Sustained break there will argue...
Forex Markets Steady as Traders Shrug US PCE Data
Trading in the forex markets remains subdued today as investors take a breather from a week of high volatility. Most major currency pairs and crosses are trading within yesterday’s ranges, with little reaction to US PCE inflation data. Annual Core PCE rate was...
US PCE inflation slows to 2.5% in Jun, but core PCE unchanged at 2.6%
US PCE price index rose 0.1% mom in June, matched expectations. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.2% mom, matched expectations. Prices for goods decreased -0.2% mom and prices for services increased 0.2% mom. Food prices increased 0.1% mom and energy prices...
XAU/USD Outlook: Gold Edges Higher from Daily Cloud Top as Markets Await Release of US Data
Gold price rose on Friday, as traders collected some profits from sharp fall in past two days (down nearly 3%), with strong acceleration lower on Thursday being sparked by upbeat US Q2 GDP numbers. Strong technical support, provided by the top of daily Ichimoku cloud,...
Performance of Dollar Again Unconvincing, Mixed at Best
Markets The IT-driven risk-off initially supported a classic safe haven run on core bonds yesterday. German yields at some point lost another 5-7 bps. However, equities gradually found a bottom going in the opening of US markets, looking forward the US data. US Q2 GDP...
GBPJPY Extends Decline to a Fresh 2-month Low
GBPJPY pulls back from its 16-year peak of 208.10 The pair falls to its lowest level since May 16 RSI and MACD warn of an overstretched retreat GBPJPY has been in a prolonged uptrend since early 2024, posting a 16-year high of 208.10 on July 11. However, the pair has...
USD/JPY Remains Volatile, US PCE Price Index Next
The Japanese yen has hit the brakes on this week’s impressive rally. USD/JPY is trading at 154.34 in the European session, up 0.30% on the day. On Thursday, the yen climbed as much as 1.3% but gave up all of those gains after the strong US GDP report. Still, the yen...
Dollar Index Remains Within Near-Term Range Ahead of Key US Inflation Data
The dollar index edged higher in Friday morning but is still holding within a choppy range that extends into sixth straight day. Long tails of daily candle of past two days and repeated closes above north turning 10DMA, add to existing bullish near-term bias. Fresh...
USDCAD Eases After Aggressive Rally to 1.3845
USDCAD exits from consolidation area Momentum oscillators indicate bearish correction USDCAD rallied towards the 1.3845 high and completed the seventh consecutive green day on Thursday following the bounce off the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) near 1.3600. The...
ECB consumer survey: Inflation expectations steady, economic growth outlook deteriorates
The latest ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results revealed stable inflation expectations but a more negative outlook for economic growth. Median inflation expectations for the next 12 months remained unchanged at 2.8%, holding at their lowest level since September...
Crypto Market Takes a Chance on Recovery
Market Picture The cryptocurrency market rallied 3.4% overnight to $2.4 trillion, taking advantage of the mixed performance of US indices, with the Russell2000 and Dow Jones up and the Nasdaq100 and S&P500 down. It’s not a full recovery, but it’s the second bounce...
FX option expiries for 26 July 10am New York cut
There aren't any major expiries to take note of on the day. As such, traders will be left to their own devices again for the most part in the session ahead. USD/JPY volatility will remain a factor, alongside the overall risk mood. The latter is slightly better today...
Calmer Markets Shift Focus to US PCE Inflation Data
The forex markets have calmed down considerably in Asian session after a week of significant wild ride. Despite the pause, the risk-averse sentiment persists. Yen, which has led the charge this week, is starting to take a breather. It remains the runaway leader,...
US durable goods orders falls -6.6% mom, but ex-transport orders up 0.4% mom
US durable goods orders fell sharply by -6.6% mom to USD 264.5 in June, much worse than expectation of 0.4% mom rise. However, ex-transportation orders rose 0.5% mom to USD 188.7B, above expectation of 0.2% mom. Ex-defense orders fell -7.0% mom to USD 247.6B....
GBP/USD Faces Downward Pressure Amid US Dollar Strength
GBP/USD pair is down to 1.2892 on Thursday. Selling intensified on the 18th of July. Since then, GBP has remained under pressure, although it is making attempts to stabilise. Statistics released earlier showed that UK private sector activity improved in July. PMI data...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.68; (P) 154.33; (R1) 155.56; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first with current recovery, and some consolidations would be seen above 151.93 temporary low. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 155.36 support turned...
U.S. Economic Resilience on Display in the Second Quarter
The U.S. economy surprised to the upside in the second quarter of 2024, expanding by 2.8% quarter-on-quarter (q/q, annualized) against expectations for around 2%. Looking under the hood, consumer spending was slightly stronger than we had forecast, advancing by 2.3%...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8813; (P) 0.8868; (R1) 0.8907; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside for the moment. Fall from 0.9223 is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 0.8332 to 0.9223 at 0.8672. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.8923...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2877; (P) 1.2907; (R1) 1.2938; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral first. Further rally is expected with 1.2859 resistance turned support intact. Break of 1.3043 will resume the rise from 1.2298. However, firm break of 1.2859 will turn...
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets Risk off quickly spread from the US yesterday to Asian and later European dealings today. Triggered by AI/tech companies on Wall Street yesterday, the equity sell-off broadened in the likes of the EuroStoxx50 amid weaker guidance from consumer staples...
USD/JPY – Yen on a Tear, US GDP Blows Past Forecast
The Japanese yen continues to gain ground against the US dollar. USD/JPY is trading at 153.68 early in the North American session, down 0.14% on the day. Earlier today, USD/JPY fell as low as 151.93 (1.3%), its lowest level since May 3, before paring most of these...
Fed Preview: Opening the Door But Not Pre-committing
We expect the Federal Reserve to maintain its monetary policy unchanged next week. Focus will be on upcoming rate cuts, which we expect to begin in September. The two latest CPI prints have built significant confidence in inflation remaining en route to target, but...
What to Expect from Markets in the Run Up to US Elections?
Presidential race dominates headlines and complicates Fed’s job Equities suffered in the two months leading up to the last six presidential elections Market’s performance in the 2016 pre-election period could be a useful guide Dollar strengthened in 2016 but equities...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0821; (P) 1.0844; (R1) 1.0861; More….. Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the downside, and fall from 1.0947 short term top should extend to 55 D EMA (now at 1.0813). Sustained break there will argue that whole rebound from 1.0601 has completed...
Dollar Edges Up After Strong Q2 GDP, Yen Finally Retreats
Dollar rises modestly in early US trading following stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP data. The robust performance overshadowed the mixed durable goods orders data, instilling some optimism in the market. Despite this, overall market reactions remain subdued. US futures...
Elliott Wave Analysis: USDCAD Turning Upside from Sideways
Hello traders, welcome to a new blog post. Today, we will discuss USDCAD as the pair is set to break out of a range that has lasted over two years. How soon can the breakout happen? In May 2021, USDCAD completed a five-year-long bearish corrective cycle that started...
US initial jobless claims falls to 235k vs exp 238k
US initial jobless claims fell -10k to 235k in the week ending July 20, slightly below expectation of 238k. Four-week moving average of initial claims was relatively unchanged at 236k. Continuing claims fell -9k to 1851k in the week ending July 13. Four-week moving...
GBP/USD Dips to 1.2850 Amid Growing BoE Rate Cut Speculation
GBP/USD is declining due to speculation of a BoE rate cut and concerns about global growth. Market participants are pricing in a 53% chance of rate cuts in August, but economists polled predict an 80% chance of a cut. Technically, GBP/USD has support at 1.2850 and...
USD/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.68; (P) 154.33; (R1) 155.56; More… USD/JPY’s fall from 161.94 continues today and there is no sign of bottoming. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 151.89 resistance turned support. Decisive break there will argue that large scale...
USD/CHF Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8813; (P) 0.8868; (R1) 0.8907; More… USD/CHF’s fall from 0.9223 resumed by breaking 0.8819 support. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 61.8% retracement of 0.8332 to 0.9223 at 0.8672. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.8923...
GBP/USD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2877; (P) 1.2907; (R1) 1.2938; More… No change in GBP/USD’s as range trading continues. Intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is expected with 1.2859 resistance turned support intact. Break of 1.3043 will resume the rise from 1.2298 and...
EUR/USD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0821; (P) 1.0844; (R1) 1.0861; More….. Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays mildly on the downside for the moment. Fall from 1.0947 short term top should extend to 55 D EMA (now at 1.0813). Sustained break there will argue that whole rebound from 1.0601...
EUR/JPY Outlook: Falls to New Multi-Week Low After Break of Key Support
EURJPY extends steep fall into fifth straight day and hit 11-week low in early Thursday (down 1% in Asian session). Recent interventions by Japan’s authorities boosted yen across the board and fresh strength gained strong momentum, suggesting that the currency could...
German Ifo falls to 87, economy stuck in crisis
Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index fell from 88.6 to 87.0 in July, missing expectations of 89.0. Current Assessment Index also dropped from 88.3 to 87.1, below the anticipated 88.5. Additionally, Expectations Index declined from 88.8 to 86.9, underperforming the...
WTI Crude Oil Creates Bearish Wave
WTI crude oil tests 77.70 support Price holds beneath SMAs RSI and MACD indicate more losses WTI crude oil futures have been in a bearish movement after the pullback off the 84.70 resistance level. It has since slipped below the simple moving averages (SMAs) in the...
FX option expiries for 25 July 10am New York cut
There aren't any major expiries to take note of on the day. As such, trading sentiment will continue to revolve around the same factors driving price action in the last few days.That being bids into the Japanese yen and selling in the commodity currencies amid a more...
Relentless Yen Rally in Risk-Off Market: Will US GDP Turn the Tide?
Risk aversion has firmly gripped the markets, leading to the steepest selloff in US stocks since 2022 overnight. This sharp decline continued into the Asian trading session, with Nikkei plunging nearly 3%. The market rout is further exacerbated by a broad decline in...
EUR/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 168.13; (P) 169.61; (R1) 170.38; More… EUR/JPY’s fall from 175.41 accelerates lower today and it’s now pressing 38.2% retracement of 153.15 to 175.41 at 166.90. Some support could be seen from this fibonacci level, and break of 169.19 minor...
EUR/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9665; (P) 0.9678; (R1) 0.9688; More…. EUR/CHF’s fall from 0.9772 resumed by breaking through 0.9641 support and intraday bias is back on the downside. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.9476 to 0.9772 at 0.9589. Sustained break there will...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.06; (P) 156.08; (R1) 156.60; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside with focus on 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 161.94 at 153.65. Some support could be seen there to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. But risk will stay...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8891; (P) 0.8908; (R1) 0.8930; More… USD/CHF’s sharp decline suggests that recovery from 0.8819 has completed at 0.8923, after rejection by 55 4H EMA. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.8819. Firm break there will resume whole fall from...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2884; (P) 1.2911; (R1) 1.2935; More… Range trading continues in GBP/USD and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is expected for with 1.2859 resistance turned support intact. Break of 1.3043 will resume the rise from 1.2298 and target 100%...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0832; (P) 1.0865; (R1) 1.0885; More….. No change in EUR/USD’s outlook and intraday bias stays on the downside. Fall from 1.0947 short term top should extend to 55 D EMA (now at 1.0813). Sustained break there will argue that whole rebound from...
(BOC) Bank of Canada reduces policy rate by 25 basis points to 4½%
The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 4½%, with the Bank Rate at 4¾% and the deposit rate at 4½%. The Bank is continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization. The global economy is expected to continue expanding at an annual rate...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Monthly PMI’s were the headline story on global markets. EMU surveys at least were no happy reading. The composite EMU HCOB PMI declined from 50.9 to 50.1 suggesting an near standstill in activity. The decline was mainly driven by a deepening contraction in...
EUR/USD Pares Losses After Weak Eurozone PMIs
The euro edged lower on Wednesday but has recovered. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0860, up 0.07% on the day at the time of writing. Eurozone PMIs weaker than expected Eurozone PMIs can be viewed as monthly report cards for the services and...
Bank of Canada Cuts Policy Rate to 4.5%
The Bank of Canada cut the overnight rate to 4.50% (from 4.75%), while stating that it will continue with Quantitative Tightening (QT). The Bank outlined a relatively dovish take on the economy, stating that “…the economy’s potential output is still growing faster...
US PMI composite rises to 27-mth high on strong services, Goldilocks scenario
US PMI Manufacturing fell from 51.6 to 49.5 in July, a 7-month low. PMI Services jumped from 55.3 to 56.0, a 28-month high. PMI Composite rose from 54.8 to 55.0, a 27-month high. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:...
BoC cuts rate to 4.50%, downgrades 2024 GDP forecasts
BoC cuts overnight rate by 25bps to 4.50% as widely expected. The Governing Council is carefully assessing the “opposing forces” on inflation, where excess supply is lowering inflationary pressures, but shelter and some services are holding inflation up. Future...
Euro Slips After Weak PMI Data, Yen Extends Gains on BoJ Speculations
Yen continues to dominate the forex markets today, with speculation heating up ahead of next week’s BoJ meeting. According to a Reuters report, unnamed sources have confirmed that a rate hike will be debated at the meeting. However, the decision is expected to be a...
US goods exports rises 5.7% yoy, imports rises 6.9% yoy
US goods exports rose 5.7% yoy to 172.32B in June. Goods imports rose 6.9% yoy to USD 269.16B. Trade balance reported USD -96.84B, versus expectation of USD -98.0B. Wholesale inventories rose 0.2% mom to USD 903.3B. Retail inventories rose 0.7% mom to USD 802.1B. Full...
Brent Oil Prices Decline Amid Inventory Reductions and Middle East Optimism
Brent crude oil prices have continued their downward trajectory, reaching 81.14 USD per barrel as of Wednesday. This marks the fifth consecutive session of decline, primarily influenced by significant reductions in US oil inventories. The latest data from the API...
ETHUSD Trades Flat After ETF Debut
ETHUSD has been rangebound in the past few sessions Spot ETF launch did not trigger much volatility Momentum indicators remain positively tilted ETHUSD (Ethereum) has experienced a strong rally in July, breaking above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA). However,...
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 168.13; (P) 169.61; (R1) 170.38; More… EUR/JPY’s fall from 175.41 resumed after brief consolidations and dives to as low as 167.42 so far. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 153.15 to 175.41 at 166.90. Some support could...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 199.97; (P) 201.57; (R1) 202.38; More… GBP/JPY’s fall from 208.09 accelerates to as low as 198.95 so far, breaking through 55 D EMA. Intraday bias stays on the downside for for 38.2% retracement of 178.32 to 208.09 at 196.71 next. For now, risk will...
NZDUSD Plunges to New Multi-Week Low
NZDUSD dives almost 4% from the July high of 0.6150 Price may rebound off 0.5875 20- and 200-day SMAs record a bearish cross Momentum oscillators indicate upside correction NZDUSD has been creating an aggressive bearish rally since the break beneath the short-term...
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9665; (P) 0.9678; (R1) 0.9688; More…. Immediate focus is now on 0.9641 temporary low in EUR/CHF. Firm break there and sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 0.9476 to 0.9772 at 0.9659 will extend the fall from 0.9772 to 61.8% retracement at...
UK manufacturing PMI hits 24-month high, encouraging start to H2
UK PMI data for July reveals a promising start to the second half of the year. PMI Manufacturing rose to 51.8, exceeding expectations of 51.1 and marking a 24-month high. PMI Services also increased slightly from 52.1 to 52.4, though just below the forecast of 52.5....
Eurozone PMI composite hits 5-month low at 50.1, ECB’s post-September rate cut path uncertain
Economic activity in Eurozone weakened in July, with PMI Manufacturing dipping from 45.8 to 45.6, a seven-month low, and missing expectations of 46.3. PMI Services also declined from 52.8 to 51.9, below the anticipated 52.9, marking a four-month low. Consequently, PMI...
FX option expiries for 24 July 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.However, they may not feature too much into play given the state of play in major currencies this week.The first one being for USD/JPY at the 155.00 mark but the pair is feeling rather heavy already in the...
Yen Jumps as Strong PMI Boosts BoJ Hike Hopes; Canadian Dollar Eyes BoC Cut
Yen’s rally accelerates again in Asian session today, driven by stronger-than-expected PMI services data, which bolsters the argument for a BoJ rate hike next week. While opinions vary on the exact timing of the rate move, with some economists forecasting a move in...
Crypto: Tactical Retreat from the Peak
Market picture The cryptocurrency market lost 2% of its capitalisation in 24 hours to $2.41 trillion. However, this is a pullback from a high base. This tug-of-war between bulls and bears points to the importance of the current situation. Bitcoin and Ethereum are...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0875; (P) 1.0889; (R1) 1.0905; More….. EUR/USD’s break of 1.0871 support suggests that a short term top was already formed at 1.0947, on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 1.0810)....
Nasdaq 100: Potential Bullish Reversal Looms Ahead of Alphabet and Tesla Earnings Results
Market breadth indicators (% of component stocks above 20-day & 50-day moving averages) have increased to above 50%. Short-term bullish momentum condition sighted at the retest of its 50-day moving average. Watch the 19,520 key short-term support ahead of a risk...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2912; (P) 1.2927; (R1) 1.2949; More… GBP/USD is still holding above 1.2859 resistance turned support and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is expected for now. Break of 1.3043 will resume the rise from 1.2298 and target 100% projection...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8878; (P) 0.8890; (R1) 0.8909; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF is back on the upside with break of 0.8914 support turned resistance. Further rally should be seen to 55 D EMA (now at 0.8967) and possibly above. But still, break of 0.9049 resistance...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.37; (P) 156.99; (R1) 157.69; More… No change in USD/JPY’s outlook as range trading continues. Intraday bias stays neutral and further decline is expected with 158.85 resistance intact. Below 155.36 will target 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to...
Dollar Bears Paused, Breaking the Uptrend
Last week, the dollar index regained some of its losses from the previous four weeks, but technically, it looks like short-term profit-taking by sellers before a new downward momentum. The US dollar has been under pressure since late June as the Fed noted progress in...
EUR/JPY Outlook: Collapses to Five-Week Low on BoJ Rate Hike Signals
EURJPY fell nearly 1% on Tuesday, as yen rose across the board on hawkish talks which may prompt BoJ for more rate hikes. The pair broke below psychological 170 support, hitting the lowest levels in five weeks and cracked Fibo 76.4% retracement of 167.52/175.42 upleg....
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Another empty daily calendar left investors to their own devices with central bank meetings in Hungary (-25 bps to 6.75%, as expected) and Turkey (unchanged at 50%, cfr. infra) offering some distraction in non-core areas. That resulted in core bonds gaining...
Yen Holds Strong While Dollar Begins to Flex Its Muscles
Japanese Yen continues to stand out as the strongest currency, in another day with a lackluster economic calendar. However, it’s Dollar that’s capturing market interest as markets enter into US session, where it has shown notable gains against major counterparts like...
Analysis of XAU/USD: Gold Price Falls for 4 Consecutive Days
As shown on the XAU/USD chart, Monday, 22 July marked the fourth consecutive day of declining gold prices. The change from the historical peak reached on Wednesday is around -3.5%. Bearish sentiment is driven by: → Market participants’ assessment of prospects due to...
EUR and GBP Retreat from Key Levels
Financial and currency markets are experiencing one shock after another. The steady decline in US inflation, a potential Fed rate cut, and the current US president’s exit from the election race have led to sharp fluctuations in almost all currency pairs. Last week:...
Gold Outlook: Pullback from New Record High Runs Out of Steam Ahead of Key US Data
Gold price edges higher in European trading on Monday, after Monday’s Doji candle signaled that pullback from new record high ($2483) might be running out of steam. Pullback was contained by solid supports at $2390 zone (daily Kijun-sen / 50% retracement of...
FTSE 100 Consolidates, S&P 500 Faces Critical Test, Earnings Ahead
The FTSE 100 is currently consolidating, trading within a range, with the possibility of a significant breakout. Glencore and Anglo American experiencing declines while Compass reports strong revenue growth. The S&P 500 faces a critical resistance level that could...
USD/JPY: Bears Retest Key Near-Term Support
USDJPY fell 0.7% in Asia on Tuesday after comments from Japanese official added pressure on the central bank for more rate hikes to further boost strengthening yen. The latest comments further improved yen’s sentiment, though most analysts expect BoJ to keep rates...
Outcome of Expected Contest Between Trump and Harris Too Early To Call
Markets US President Biden stepping out of the presidential election race dominated press/market headlines yesterday. Still, the direct impact on global trading was modest after all. For now, the outcome of an expected contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is...
EURJPY Extends Pullback from 32-year High
EURJPY jumped to its highest since January 1992 on July 11 But is trending lower since then due to Japanese intervention Oscillators deteriorate significantly, suggesting bearish bias EURJPY has been in an uptrend since the beginning of the year, storming to a fresh...
GBPUSD Holds Well Below the 1-year High
GBPUSD eases but remains above uptrend line Stochastics and RSI suggest more losses GBPUSD is retreating after a strong rally towards the one-year high of 1.3045. The technical oscillators also confirm the bearish retracement. The stochastic is diving into oversold...
ECB’s de Guindos: Sep economic projections key for policy reassessment
In an interview with Spanish news agency Europa Press, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos emphasized the significance of new macroeconomic projections in September, together with another two months of data on inflation and underlying inflation. These projections and...
AUDUSD Tumbles Below Key 0.6690 Zone
AUDUSD falls back within a range RSI and MACD support further declines Dip below 0.6575 could carry larger bearish implications Rebound above 0.6690 may invite more bulls. AUDUSD has been trading in a free-fall mode since July 15, while yesterday, the bears cleared...
FX option expiries for 23 July 10am New York cut
There aren't any major expiries to take note of for the day. As such, trading sentiment might be more muted in the European session as we await US markets to open again later. In that lieu, even then equities and the broader risk mood might be more cautious today...
Yen Advances Despite BoJ Uncertainty, Aussie and Kiwi Struggles Continue
Yen is trading broadly higher in otherwise sluggish Asian session today. The central focus remains on whether BoJ will implement another interest rate hike at its upcoming announcement on July 31. Media reports suggest that some BoJ officials are concerned about weak...
News of the Week (July 22—26): USDCNH Review
The USDCNH pair represents the exchange rate between the US dollar and the Chinese yuan. Factors influencing the US dollar include Federal Reserve policies, inflation rates, and the overall health of the US economy. In contrast, the Chinese yuan is affected by China’s...
EUR/USD Outlook: Correction So Far Limited But Risk of Deeper Pullback Still Exists
EURUSD edges higher in European trading on Monday as bears are taking a breather after a two-day pullback from a multi-week high (1.0948). Rising 10DMA and Fibo 23.6% of 1.0666/1.0948 (1.0881) contained dips for now, signaling a scenario of shallow correction before...
AUD/USD Mid-Day Report – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6672; (P) 0.6693; (R1) 0.6707; More... AUD/USD’s fall from 0.6798 accelerates lower today and intraday bias stays on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 0.6361 to 0.6798 at 0.6631. Strong support could be seen there to bring rebound, and break...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.02; (P) 157.38; (R1) 157.78; More… USD/JPY is staying in range above 155.36 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral. Further decline is expected with 158.85 resistance intact. Below 155.36 will target 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8867; (P) 0.8884; (R1) 0.8908; More… USD/CHF is staying in range above 0.8819 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further decline is in favor as long as 0.8914 support turned resistance holds. Break of 0.8819 will target 61.8% retracement of 0.8332...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2886; (P) 1.2930; (R1) 1.2958; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for consolidation below 1.3043. Downside of consolidations should be contained by 1.2859 resistance turned support to bring another rally. Break of 1.3043 will resume...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Biden’s dropout from the presidential race grabbed most of the headlines today, if only because there was basically no other news to report. He and many other Democrats have endorsed the current runner-up Kamala Harris as the new nominee. What that means for...
PMIs Could Momentarily Take Focus Away from US Developments
Wednesday’s PMI surveys key for both the Fed and the BoE Eurozone PMI manufacturing survey could disappoint again US PMIs unlikely to unsettle September Fed expectations UK figures could surprise on the upside after the general election Important PMI survey prints...
BoC to Cut Rates Again, What’s Next?
Bank of Canada to slash rates by 25bps for the second time in a row More easing expected, but policymakers might signal a data-dependent approach USDCAD tests key resistance of 1.3740; key support at 1.3620 Investors are confident that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will...
July Flashlight for the FOMC Blackout Period
Summary Congress has given the Federal Reserve a dual mandate of “maximum employment” and “price stability.” With inflation surging to a 40-year high in 2022, the FOMC largely has focused on its “price stability” mandate in recent years. However, inflation is showing...
AUD/USD Outlook: Downtrend Extends into Sixth Consecutive Day
AUDUSD hit three-week low on Monday after recovery attempts overnight were short-lived and bears regained full control. The pair remains in a steep downtrend for the sixth straight day and retraced so far 61.8% of 0.6575/0.6798 rally. Last week’s 1.3% fall left large...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0870; (P) 1.0889; (R1) 1.0903; More…. EUR/USD is staying in range below 1.0947 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise is in favor as long as 1.0871 minor support holds. Break of 1.0947 will target 100% projection of 1.0601 to 1.0915 from...
Aussie’s Selloff Deepens as Copper Prices Plunge
Australian Dollar continues to lead the decline among commodity currencies today, with the selloff appearing to accelerate. Despite stabilization in risk sentiment in Europe where major indexes are trading positively, and US futures, particularly NASDAQ, pointing to a...
EURCHF Hovers Around 38.2% Fibo
EURCHF spikes lower following rejection at 23.6% Fibo Price trades sideways after break below 50-day SMA Momentum indicators are neutral-to-negative EURCHF has been staging a solid recovery since mid-June, advancing to its highest level in more than a month last...
Bundesbank urges prudence: further rate reductions must be judiciously evaluated
Bundesbank’s latest monthly report indicates that while some factors are bolstering the economy, they are simultaneously complicating efforts to bring inflation down to target. “The labor markets are still operating at high capacity, wage growth is brisk, and prices...
Australian Dollar Falls to 3-Week Low
The Australian dollar is coming off a rough week with losses of 1.45% and the downtrend has continued on Monday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6664 in the European session, down 0.30% on the day at the time of writing. The Aussie climbed 1.9% in the first two weeks of July...
Crypto Rests After Another Rise
Market picture The cryptocurrency market is near 6-week highs, with capitalisation near $2.44 trillion, adding 0.5% in the last 24 hours. A wait-and-see attitude and some profit-taking replaced active buying in the last three days starting Friday. Judging by the...
ECB’s Kazimir: Two more rate cuts this year not guaranteed
In an op-ed published today, ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir addressed market expectations for two additional rate cuts before the end of the year. He stated that while these market bets are “not entirely misplaced,” they should not be considered a “given...
USD/JPY: Another Potential Relief Rally Leg Looms for JPY
A potential uptick in Japan’s core-core CPI led by PPI may increase the odds of a BoJ’s interest rate hike in September. Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s betting odds have slipped after US President Biden decided to bow out of the US Presidential...
Aussie Leads Decline in Commodity Currencies; Risk Aversion Dominates Following China’s Rate Cut
Australian Dollar leads other commodity currencies lower in Asian session today, reflecting a broader risk-off sentiment in the markets. The market’s risk-off sentiment is further emphasized by the strength of Yen and Swiss Franc, currencies typically favored during...
Gold Declines Sharply from All-time High
Gold jumped to its highest level ever on July 17 But reversed lower due to reaching overbought conditions Despite latest weakness, oscillators remain positively tilted Gold had been in a steady uptrend since late May, which led to a fresh all-time high of 2,483 last...
FX option expiries for 22 July 10am New York cut
There are a couple of large ones in the likes of EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and USD/CAD. However, they are all unlikely to feature as they are quite a distance away from the spot price currently. As such, the expiries should have no impact on price action with the focus to...
US Will Reveal Its Latest GDP Update
Joe Biden threw in the towel and announced that he quits the presidential race this weekend. He endorsed Vice President Kamara Harris to take his place. Harris said that she will do anything in her power to beat Trump, she got the support from Bill and Hillary Clinton...
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/CHF reversed after edging higher to 0.9772 but recovered after breaching 38.2% retracement of 0.9476 to 0.9772 at 0.9659. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Strong bounce from current level will maintain near term bullishness. Break of 0.9972 will...
EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/AUD’s rebound from 1.5996 extended higher last week and broke through 55 D EMA (now at 1.6216). The development is taken as the first sign that whole correction from 1.0762 has completed with three waves down to 1.6000 fibonacci support. Further rise is expected...
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/GBP recovered after edging lower to 0.8382 last week. With break of 55 4H EMA (now at 0.8421), initial bias is mildly on the upside for stronger rebound to 55 D EMA (now at 0.8477). Nevertheless, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8498 resistance holds, and...
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/JPY’s fall from 175.41 short term top extended lower last week but recovered after hitting 169.98. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, and further fall is in favor as long as 172.91 resistance holds. Below 169.98 will target 38.2% retracement of 153.15...
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/JPY’s pullback from 208.09 extended lower last week but recovered after hitting 202.08. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further fall is in favor as long as 205.77 resistance holds. This decline from 208.09 might be correcting the whole rise from...
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CAD’s strong rally last week suggests that consolidative pattern from 1.3845 has completed with three waves to 1.3588, after being supported by 38.2% retracement of 1.3716 to 1.3845 at 1.3589 Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 1.3790 resistance first....
AUD/USD Weekly Report – Action Forex
AUD/USD’s fall from 0.6798 short term top extended lower last week. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 38.2% retracement of 0.6361 to 0.6798 at 0.6631. Strong rebound would be seen there to bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.6754 minor resistance will...
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CHF dipped to 0.8819 last week as fall from 0.9223 tried to resumed, but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further decline is in favor as long as 0.8914 support turned resistance holds. Break of 0.8819 will target 61.8%...
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/USD edged higher to 1.3043 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations first. Downside should be contained by 1.2859 resistance turned support to bring another rally. Break of 1.3043 will resume the rise from...
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/JPY’s correction from 161.94 extended to 155.36 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week and further fall is expected with 158.85 resistance intact. Below 155.36 will target 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 161.94 at 153.65. On the...
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/USD edged higher to 1.0947 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, and further rise is in favor as long as 1.0871 minor support holds. Break of 1.0947 will target 100% projection of 1.0601 to 1.0915 from 1.0665 at 1.0979....
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast – Action Forex
EUR/USD: FOMC – Are Surprises Expected on 31 July? This review will begin somewhat unusually, not from the start, but from the end of the past work week. On the evening of 18 July and the morning of the 19th, system administrators and users encountered non-functional...
Shift in Risk Sentiment a Short-Lived Anomaly or Start of a Longer Correction?
Last week proved to be a whirlwind for global markets, marked by a series of shocking events—from the failed assassination attempt on Donald Trump last weekend, to the historic global tech outage that occurred on Friday that brought significant attention but...
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: A String of Upside Surprises, but Growth is Slowing in the U.S.
Summary United States: A String of Upside Surprises, but Growth is Slowing in the U.S. Retail sales, housing starts and industrial production all surprised to the upside this week. Yet, an uptick in initial jobless claims was a reminder that conditions in the labor...
The Weekly Bottom Line: Nearing the Pivot Point
U.S. Highlights After an eerily calm few months, a fresh dose of volatility descended across global financial markets this week. Top Fed officials speaking this week noted that they are getting ‘closer’ to cutting interest rates. Financial markets have fully priced...
Weekly Market Outlook: US PCE, GDP, and Earnings Expected to Drive Volatility
This week, markets were influenced by trade war fears, US political developments, and a global cyber outage. In Asia, the Japanese yen weakened, and Chinese authorities remained silent on economic goals despite weak data. Next week, US PCE and GDP data, along with...
Summary 7/22 – 7/26
Monday, Jul 22, 2024 Tuesday, Jul 23, 2024 Wednesday, Jul 24, 2024 Thursday, Jul 25, 2024 Friday, Jul 26, 2024 The post Summary 7/22 – 7/26 appeared first on Action Forex.
GBP/USD: Cable Dips Further After Downbeat UK Retail Sales
Cable remains in red for the second consecutive day and extends pullback from new one-year high (1.3044). Weaker than expected UK retail sales increase pressure on sterling and add to bets for BoE rate cut in August (currently at 44%). Fresh bears broke below the...
US Dollar Index Outlook: Risk Aversion Lifts the Dollar
The dollar index extends recovery into second straight day, with strong bounce from new four-month low (103.31) on Thursday, being fueled by fresh risk aversion on global cyber outage, which hit financial centers, banks, airlines and many others, prompting investors...
EUR/USD Experiences Sharp Decline: Risk Appetite Heightens
The EUR/USD pair fell sharply to 1.0888, with investors speculating on the future of US interest rates and the potential implications of the upcoming presidential election, particularly as Donald Trump’s chances appear to be improving. These factors contribute to a...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0879; (P) 1.0911; (R1) 1.0928; More…. EUR/USD is still holding above 1.0871 support and intraday bias stays neutral. Further remains mildly in favor. Break of 1.0947 will resume the rise from 1.0601 and target target 100% projection of 1.0601 to...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2915; (P) 1.2968; (R1) 1.2997; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral at this point. Pullback from 1.3043 could extend lower but downside should be contained by 1.2859 resistance turned support to bring another rally. Above 1.3043 will...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets One of the biggest-ever IT outages sparked volatility at the start of European trading but without lasting impact on general markets. A security update by CrowdStrike caused a global problem with Microsoft’s Windows. UK retail sales also printed at the onset...
AUD/USD: On Track for Biggest Weekly Drop Since Mid-April
Australian dollar continues to trend lower vs its US counterpart for the fifth consecutive day, on track for the biggest weekly loss since the second week of April. Bears have so far retraced 50% of 0.6575/0.6798 upleg and look for daily close below daily Kijun-sen...
Gold: Reversal or Typical Retreat?
Gold made an impressive 3% surge during the week, breaking May’s all-time highs. However, it then retreated to the downside, selling off throughout the second half of the week. What should you watch out for to see if this is a reversal? Pullbacks after making new...
Another Cut from BoC Will Bring Benchmark Interest Rate to 4.5%
Softer inflation in Canada in June provided a small relief after an upside surprise in May, and set the Bank of Canada up for another 25-basis point interest rate cut on Wednesday to build on its first cut in June. Similar to the June meeting, we think the central...
Week Ahead – Flash PMIs, US GDP and BoC Decision on Tap
US data awaited amid overly dovish Fed rate cut bets July PMIs to reveal how economies entered H2 BoC decides on monetary policy, may cut rates again Will investors add to their Fed rate cut bets? With investors ramping up their Fed rate cut bets, the US dollar...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8839; (P) 0.8859; (R1) 0.8898; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for consolidations above 0.8819 temporary low. But further decline is expected as long as 0.9049 resistance holds. Break of 0.8819 will resume the fall from 0.9223 to...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.29; (P) 156.95; (R1) 157.84; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. Deeper decline is still expected as long as 158.85 resistance holds. Below 155.36 will extend the fall from 161.94, as a correction to rally from 140.25,...
Dollar Gains on Risk Aversion Amid Quiet Trading
Risk aversion continues to support Dollar in relatively quiet trading today. Both Sterling and Canadian Dollar weakened mildly after worse-than-expected retail sales data. Euro shrugged off dovish comments from some ECB officials. Meanwhile, Yen softened slightly...
Canada retail sales falls -0.8% mom in May, down further -0.3% mom in Jun
Canada’s retail sales fell -0.8% mom to CAD 66.1B in May, worse than expectation of -0.5% mom. Sales were down in eight of nine subsectors, led by decreases at food and beverage retailers. Core retail sales—which exclude gasoline stations and fuel vendors and motor...
USD/JPY Outlook: Bear-Trap Underpins But Recovery Still Faces Headwinds
USDJPY remains constructive on Friday and attempts to further extend Thursday’s strong bounce, with recovery being supported by signals of a double bear-trap, following a false break below pivotal Fibo support at 156.04 and thin daily cloud (spanned between 155.83 and...
Silver Sinks Below 30 – Action Forex
Silver erases June’s gains; eyes on 28.50 Technical signals favor the bears Silver’s performance took a hit, marking its worst week in 2024 as the US dollar switched to recovery mode and investors questioned China’s economic outlook. As a result, the metal swiftly...
Canadian Dollar Eyes Retail Sales Ahead of Rate Meeting
The Canadian dollar is calm on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3717, up 0.08% on the day at the time of writing. We could see stronger movement in the North American session, with the release of Canadian retail sales. Will retail sales suffer...
ECB’s Villeroy: Market rate cut expectations “rather reasonable”
ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau spoke on French radio BFM Business today, expressing that current market expectations for interest rate cuts seem “rather reasonable.” Markets are currently pricing in nearly two ECB rate cuts for the remainder...
ECB Not Confident that September Will Bring the Second Rate Ccut
TSM announced better-than-expected quarterly results and lifted its growth projections for this year’s revenue. Good news helped limiting the previous day selloff in chip stocks yesterday but couldn’t prevent the S&P500 and Nasdaq 100 from closing Thursday’s...
GBPJPY Retraces Lower After Hitting 16-year High
GBPJPY pulls back from its highest level since August 2008 RSI and MACD ease but remain in positive territories GBPJPY has been in a prolonged uptrend since early 2024, posting a 16-year high of 208.10 on July 11. However, the pair has been undergoing a pullback since...
USDCAD Advances Within Trading Range
USDCAD bounces off 1.3600 and 200-day SMA Momentum oscillators suggest more gains USDCAD has been still developing within a trading range of 1.3600 and 1.3790 since April 17, with strong support at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). The recent rebound from...
ECB’s Simkus: Interest rates are getting lower, quite significantly
ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus shared his views with reporters today, indicating that his outlook aligns with current market expectations, which anticipate two rate cuts this year. Simkus commented, “Interest rates are getting lower and, I think, will...
FX option expiries for 19 July 10am New York cut
There aren't any major expiries to take note of on the day. As such, trading sentiment will rely on the same key drivers from the day before mostly. The dollar saw recovery flows yesterday with yields pushing higher, so that will remain in contention in the session...
Dollar Strengthens as DOW Plunges; Yen Struggles to Extend Rally
Dollar rebounded broadly overnight following steep 500+ point selloff in DOW. Some analysts cited rotation away from big tech as the cause, but the decline was broad-based. Profit-taking could be a more likely factor after recent record runs, as traders and Fed...
(ECB) Monetary policy decisions – Action Forex
18 July 2024 The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. The incoming information broadly supports the Governing Council’s previous assessment of the medium-term inflation outlook. While some measures of underlying inflation...
ECB stands pat, headline inflation to stay above target well into next year
ECB left interest rates unchanged as wildly expected. Interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility are held at 4.25%, 4.50% and 3.75% respectively. In the accompanying statement, ECB noted that incoming information broadly support the...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0907; (P) 1.0928; (R1) 1.0960; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral first with current retreat. Some consolidations would be seen below 1.0947 temporary top. But downside should be contained by 1.0871 support to bring another rally....
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2968; (P) 1.3006; (R1) 1.3048; More… A temporary top should be formed at 1.3043 as GBP/USD retreated after hitting rising channel resistance. Intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidations first. Downside should be contained by 1.2859...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8790; (P) 0.8871; (R1) 0.8915; More… USD/CHF’s decline is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside. Fall from 0.9223 should target 60% retracement of 0.8332 to 0.9223 at 0.8672 next. On the upside, above 0.8884 minor resistance...
EUR/USD – Slightly Lower as ECB Holds Interest Rates
The euro has edged lower on Thursday. Early in the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0919, down 0.18% on the day. The euro hasn’t posted a losing day since July 9, gaining 1% during that period. ECB maintains rates at 3.75% The European Central Bank...
EUR/USD Outlook: Dips from New High Following ECB Decision
EURUSD eases further from new multi-week high (1.0948) as markets digested ECB’s decision to stay on hold and repeat its mantra that future action will be dependent on incoming economic data. On the other hand, confidence that the ECB will deliver two more rate cuts...
UK Jobs Data Cooled the Pound
The UK labour market is experiencing a cooling phase. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in June increased by 32.3K after a jump of 51.9K a month earlier. Prior to that, this indicator had been drifting for almost two years, adding an average of 2.5K...
JPY Technical Outlook: Price Action on USD/JPY, GBP/JPY
Japanese authorities have not confirmed whether they have intervened in the market to support the Yen. USD/JPY broke a long-term descending trendline but found support near the 100-day MA and 155.00 level. Price Action outlook and potential setups on USD/JPY and...
Is AUDCAD Ready to Extend Its Uptrend?
AUDCAD prints higher highs and higher lows RSI and MACD detect positive momentum Break above 0.9260 could signal trend continuation Dip below 0.9125 may allow a decent correction AUDCAD rebounded today from slightly above the support of 0.9270, marked by the low of...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets The ECB kept its key policy rates unchanged today in an unanimous decision. In its policy statement, the central bank repeats that it doesn’t pre-commit to a particular rate path. They follow a meeting-by-meeting and data-dependent approach to determining the...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.29; (P) 156.95; (R1) 157.84; More… USD/JPY’s fall from 161.94 is seen as correcting whole rally from 140.25. Deeper decline is expected as long as 158.85 resistance holds, to 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 161.94 at 163.65. On the upside, above...
Subdued Forex Trading as ECB Holds Rates Steady
Trading in the forex markets has been relatively subdued today. ECB’s decision to hold interest rates steady was widely expected, and President Christine Lagarde’s press conference did not introduce any significant new information. ECB’s accompanying statement...
US initial jobless claims rises to 243k vs exp 225k
US initial jobless claims rose 20k to 243k in the week ending July 13, above expectation of 225k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 1k to 235k. Continuing claims rose 20k to 1867k in the week ending July 6, highest since November 27, 2021. Four-week...
USDCHF Elliott Wave Analysis Favors Selling Bounces
Hello traders, welcome to a new blog post. Today, we will discuss the future path for the USDCHF currency pair. The recent breakout confirmed the bearish bias we shared with members of Elliottwave-Forecast. So, what is next for this pair in the coming weeks? On April...
Brent Oil Price Trends Upward Amid Positive Market Signals
Brent crude oil has reached $85.40, marking a continued increase over two consecutive sessions. This upward trend is primarily supported by recent US energy inventory statistics, which showed a significant decrease of 4.87 million barrels against an anticipated...
Change of Heart from Fed Governor Waller Significant
Markets We’ve given Fed governor Waller plenty of attention this year. He’s been the voice of the large minority inside the Fed who from the beginning of the year has been pushing to keep policy rates at their peak levels for longer. Markets had to gradually retrace...
Elliott Wave Intraday: Rally in Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Looking Impulsive
Rally from 7.5.2024 low in Bitcoin (BTCUSD) looks impulsive suggesting further upside. Pullback to 53570 ended wave ((4)) and Bitcoin has turned higher in wave ((5)). The crypto currency still needs to break the previous all-time high on 3.14.2024 high at 73794 to...
Commodity Currencies in Stable Ranges: Should We Expect a Breakout?
The currency pairs AUD/USD and USD/CAD, unlike the pairs with the Euro, Yen, and Sterling, continue to demonstrate long-term stability. These pairs have been trading in narrow price corridors for several months. Given the weakening of the dollar in many directions,...
USDJPY: What’s Happening With JPY? Scenarios after BoJ Intervention
Bullish Scenario: Buy above 156.45 with targets at 157.16, 157.90, and 158.10 in extension. Set S.L below 155.80 or at least 1% of the account’s capital. Apply Trailing Stop. Bearish Scenario: Sell below 157.16 or 157.90 (where a PAR* forms) with TP1: 156.00, 155.80,...
EURUSD Reaches the Midpoint of a Long-Term Downtrend
EURUSD rally slows down near 4-month high Gets bearish vibes, but positive trend is still alive above 1.0900 ECB to hold interest rates steady at 12:15 GMT; Will it signal a second rate cut? EURUSD took a breather after heightened expectations of a Fed rate cut lifted...
Some USD/JPY option expiries to be aware of for 10am NY time today
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
WTI Oil Futures Hold Above 80.00
WTI futures rebound from a 3-week low Next target for the bulls is the July peak of 84.50 Momentum indicators are cautiously tilted to the upside WTI oil futures (August delivery) had been in a steady uptrend since early June before experiencing a pullback following...
FX option expiries for 18 July 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.They are all for EUR/USD centered near the 1.0900 level. If anything else, that should help to limit any downside shoves in the session ahead at least before we get to the ECB policy decision later.Besides...
Euro Mixed as ECB Rate Decision Looms
While Euro maintains its strength against Dollar, its performance is more mixed against other major currencies. The market’s attention is now focused on the upcoming ECB rate decision and press conference. It is broadly anticipated that ECB will maintain deposit rate...
AUD/USD: Market Stabilizes Amid Rate Cut Expectations
The Australian dollar has stabilized against the US dollar, currently trading around 0.6738. This follows a period of decline influenced by ongoing speculations regarding the US Federal Reserve’s impending policy actions. Expectations are set for the Fed to initiate...
GBP Looks Stronger Than USD Thanks to Inflation
A batch of inflation statistics from the UK seems to have fuelled the Pound’s rally against the Dollar and Euro, which has been going strong since the beginning of the month. Consumer inflation remained at 2.0%, with the core index at 3.5% y/y. At the same time,...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2948; (P) 1.2965; (R1) 1.2992; More… GBP/USD’s rally resumed after brief consolidations and intraday bias is back on the upside. Current rise from 1.2298 should target 100% projection of 1.2298 to 1.2859 from 1.2612 at 1.3173, which is slightly...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0877; (P) 1.0900; (R1) 1.0916; More…. EUR/USD’s rally resumed after brief consolidations and intraday bias is back on the upside. Break of 1.0915 resistance should now extend the rise from 1.0601 to 100% projection of 1.0601 to 1.0915 from 1.0665...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8922; (P) 0.8951; (R1) 0.8967; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF is back on the downside as fall from 0.9049 resumed through 0.8914 temporary low. Deeper decline is expected to retest 0.8825 support next. Firm break there will resume whole fall from...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.93; (P) 158.39; (R1) 158.88; More… USD/JPY’s fall from 161.94 resumed by breaking through 157.16 support and intraday bias is back on the downside. Current decline is seen as correcting whole rally from 140.25. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets After last-week’s softer than expected US CPI data, global investors gained ever greater confidence that the Fed will embark for a genuine, protracted easing cycle soon. Yields turned south, especially at the short end of the (US) yield curve. The dollar faced...
Australian Dollar Eyes Employment Report
The Australian dollar is steady on Wednesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6743 early in the North American session, up 0.08% on the day. Australia releases the June employment report early on Thursday. The market estimate stands at 20 thousand, compared to 39.7 thousand...
USD/JPY Outlook: Sharply Down, Markets Suspect Intervention
USDJPY was sharply down on Wednesday (down 1.3% during the European / early US session), with markets suspecting another intervention, after Japan’s authorities intervened in the market and pushed yen away from the lowest levels in nearly four decades.. Although...
Fed’s Waller suggests rate cuts may be nearing
In a speech today, Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated that Fed is “getting closer” to the time when a cut in the policy rate is warranted. He noted that Q2 data on inflation and the labor market has moderated, suggesting that “progress toward...
EUR/CHF Technical: Euro Underperformance Over Swiss Franc May Have Resumed
The recent 4-week rally of EUR/CHF from 19 June has started to show signs of exhaustion. The ongoing weakness of the France CAC 40 has triggered a negative feedback loop towards EUR/CHF. Watch the 0.9780 key short-term resistance on the EUR/CHF. The EUR/CHF cross pair...
Yen Jumps Amid Rumored Intervention; Pound Rises with Fading BoE Rate Cut Hopes
Yen surged significantly against all major currencies during European session, with speculation on whether Japan has intervened again in the markets. Last week, it was rumored that Japanese authorities had spent JPY 3.5 trillion to prop up Yen. Despite this, top...
Gold Shines at Fresh All-Time High
Gold ends sideways trajectory; enters uncharted territory Short-term bias positive but overbought signals suggest some caution A close above 2,480 might be necessary to boost buying confidence Gold bulls powered ahead to finally exit the three-month range and chart an...
GBP/USD Outlook: Cable Rises Above 1.3000 and Hits New 2024 High
Cable surged through psychological 1.30 barrier and hit its highest in one year on Wednesday, after hotter than expected UK June inflation data tempered expectations for first BoE rate cut in next month policy meeting. Fresh strength after a two-day pause for...
Fed’s Williams sees positive signs in inflation trend, awaiting more data
New York Fed President John Williams, in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, indicated that recent inflation readings over the past three months are “getting us closer to a disinflationary trend that we’re looking for,” noting these as “positive signs.”...
Market Analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Poised For Fresh Gains
AUD/USD is attempting a fresh increase from the 0.6715 support. NZD/USD is also rising and could target the 0.6090 resistance. Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today The Aussie Dollar found support at 0.6715 and recovered higher against the US...
Eurozone CPI finalized at 2.5% in Jun, core at 2.9%
Eurozone CPI was finalized at 2.5% yoy in June, down from May’s 2.6% yoy. CPI core (ex-energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) was finalized at 2.9% yoy, unchanged from prior month’s reading. The highest contribution to annual inflation rate came from services (+1.84...
Analysis of XAU/USD: Gold Price Sets Historical Record
As the XAU/USD chart shows, on 16th July, the gold price rose above $2460 for the first time in history. The bullish sentiment is driven by: → Anticipation of Fed rate cuts, as the appeal of non-yielding bullion generally increases in low-interest-rate environments. →...
XAU/USD Outlook: Gold Hits New Record High
Gold hit new record high early Wednesday ($2482), following acceleration through former top on Tuesday (metal was up 1.9% for the day, the biggest daily gain since Dec 13). Break above previous all-time high ($2450) signaled an end of corrective phase ($2450/$2286)...
EURGBP Trades to a New 2024 Low
EURGBP drops to the lowest level since August 2022 Political unrest and weaker economic data keep the euro under pressure Momentum indicators could point to a reversal soon EURGBP is hovering around the lowest level since August 2022, having recorded a decent...
GBPUSD Hits Fresh 1-Year High
GBPUSD jumps to fresh 1-year high after UK CPI surprises slightly higher Technical indicators point to overbought conditions following steep rally UK employment figures next on the agenda due on Thursday 06:00 GMT The UK CPI inflation data on Wednesday gave GBPUSD a...
FX option expiries for 17 July 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of, as highlighted in bold.That being for USD/JPY at the 158.50 level. It isn't one that holds any technical significance but could help to keep price action more contained before we get to US trading. That said, be wary of any surprises...
Sterling Steady, Kiwi Rebounds, Gold Hits Record
Forex markets have been relatively subdued today. Sterling remains steady after June’s UK CPI data revealed that both headline and core inflation were unchanged from the previous month. Significantly, services inflation also failed to cool, which could keep BoE...
US retail sales steady in Jun, ex-auto sales up 0.4% mom
US retail sales was steady mom at USD 704.3B in June, above expectation of -0.20% mom. Ex-auto sales rose 0.4% mom to USD 573.6B, above expectation of 0.1% mom. Ex-gasoline sales rose 0.2% mom to USD 652.4B. Ex-auto and gasoline sales rose 0.8% mom to USD 507.1B....
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0877; (P) 1.0900; (R1) 1.0916; More…. EUR/USD’s retreat from 1.0921 extends lower today but stays well above 1.0805 support so far. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Some more consolidations would be seen but further rally is in favor. Firm...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2955; (P) 1.2975; (R1) 1.2988; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for consolidations below 1.2994 temporary top. But further rally is expected as long as 1.2859 resistance turned support holds. Above 1.2994 will resume the rally from...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8937; (P) 0.8955; (R1) 0.8975; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral first. Another fall is mildly in favor with 0.9000 resistance intact. Below 0.8914 will bring retest of 0.8825 low. However, break of 0.9000 will turn bias back to the...
U.S. Headline Retail Sales Flat in June, But Core Accelerated
Retail sales was virtually unchanged month-over-month in June. Despite this, the reading was still higher than the consensus forecast calling for a decrease of -0.3%. Additionally, May’s figure was revised upwards to a 0.3% monthly gain (previously 0.1%). Trade in the...
Canadian Inflation Eases, But Details a Mixed Bag
Headline CPI inflation decelerated in June to 2.7% year-on-year (y/y), right on consensus expectations and below last month’s 2.9% y/y print. The deceleration was led by gasoline prices, which dropped 3.1% month-on-month (m/m), compared to the +5.6% m/m gain last...
Kiwi Coming into Strong Support Ahead of Inflation Data
NZDUSD is coming out of consolidation, suggesting that the price action since the start of July was a triangle in wave B. Therefore, the whole retracement from June 12th is much more complex and deeper but still has a corrective shape. It looks like we are just...
USD/CAD Steady After Canadian CPI, US Retail Sales
The Canadian dollar is showing limited movement on Tuesday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3687, up 0.03% on the day at the time of writing. Canada’s CPI lower than expected Canada followed the US and posted a better-than-expected inflation...
ECB Could Disappoint Expectations for a Dovish Shift
ECB meets with near zero chances for a rate cut ECB members continue to disagree about the rates outlook A dovish shift looks unlikely as the focus rests with the Fed Euro showing unexpected strength despite political unrest ECB meets but all eyes remain on the US The...
Gold’s Astounding Rally and the Challenges Ahead
Gold gains around 18% year-to-date But is it time for the uptrend to cool down a bit? Even if so, the broader outlook remains positive Gold shines bright Gold had a great year-to-date performance, gaining around 18% and hitting a record high of 2450 on May 20. As...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Global core bonds gained some ground going into today’s main dish, US retail sales. UK gilts slightly outperformed Bunds and Treasuries as markets gear for tomorrow’s June CPI numbers. A further easing on all accounts is expected but the sub 2% drop in the...
Dollar Gains After Retail Sales Boost; Gold Nears New Record
Dollar bounces higher in early US session, buoyed by stronger-than-expected retail sales data. This resilience in consumer spending comes despite the persistent high inflation and elevated interest rates. The robust retail sales figures lend support to Fed’s soft...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.32; (P) 157.88; (R1) 158.57; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidations above 157.61. On the downside, break of 157.16 and sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 157.72) will bring deeper correction to 38.2% retracement...
Canada CPI slows to 2.7% yoy in June, down-0.1% mom
Canada’s CPI slowed from 2.9% yoy to 2.7% yoy in June. The deceleration was largely the result of slower year-over-year growth in gasoline prices, which rose 0.4% in June following a 5.6% increase in May. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.8% yoy. Looking at the core...
GBP/USD Faces Challenges in Breaking Through Key 1.3000 Level
GBP/USD struggles to break above the 1.3000 level despite softer US data and a dovish comment from Fed Chair Powell. UK inflation data will be crucial in determining whether GBP/USD can break above 1.3000. Technical analysis suggests GBP/USD may struggle to break...
USD/JPY: May fall Further If US Retail Sales Miss in June
USDJPY remains in extended consolidation of last week’s sharp fall, sparked by US inflation data and intervention by Japanese authorities. Near-term action is holding above 55DMA (157.55) which repeatedly contained dips and marks solid support for now. Traders also...
XAU/USD: Gold Advances Further on Powell’s Dovish Stance
Gold price rose further in early Tuesday following more dovish tones from Fed Powell in his speech on Monday, which contributes to growing expectations that the Fed may soon decide to start cutting interest rates. Powell pointed to the recent inflation data which...
Gold Nears Record High as Fed Rate Cut Looms
Gold prices have surged, reaching $2430 per troy ounce on Tuesday, flirting with historic highs. The recent spike in gold prices is largely attributed to comments made by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which have bolstered expectations of an impending...
German ZEW falls to 41.8, first decline in a year
Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment fell from 47.5 to 41.8 in July, below expectation of 44.3. That’s also the first decline in a year since July 2023. Current Situation Index rose from -73.8 to -68.9, above expectation of -73.0. Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment fell from...
Eurozone goods exports fall -0.5% yoy in May, imports down -6.4% yoy
Eurozone goods exports fell -0.5% yoy to EUR 241.5B in May. Goods imports fell -6.4% yoy to EUR 227.6B. Trade balance showed a EUR 13.9B surplus. Intra-Eurozone trade fell -5.6% yoy to EUR 216.0B. In seasonally adjusted term, goods exports fell -2.6% mom to EUR...
NZD: Will Bearish Momentum Halt?
The NZDUSD pair remains under pressure near 0.6075 in early Asian trading on Tuesday, affected by weak Chinese economic data and a modest rebound in the US Dollar. Attention is on the upcoming US Retail Sales data for June. Focus will also shift to New Zealand’s CPI...
EURJPY Pulls Back from 32-Year High
EURJPY jumped to its highest since January 1992 last week But corrected lower after suspected Japanese intervention Oscillators weaken but remain above neutral zones EURJPY has been in a steep uptrend since the beginning of the year, storming to consecutive multi-year...
FX option expiries for 16 July 10am New York cut
There is one to really take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.It is for EUR/USD and seen at the 1.0900 level once again. That is likely to help contain price action and limit any overextensions beyond the figure level, at least until we get to the US retail...
Yen Softens as Rebound Fades; Loonie Looks to Canadian CPI
Yen weakened broadly during Asian session today, giving back some of last week’s strong gains that were reportedly driven by Japan’s market intervention. Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi repeated in a press conference that it is crucial for currency...
Nikkei Index Has Risen To a Two-Month High
As we reported on 26th June, analysing the Nikkei 225 chart (Japan 225 on FXOpen): → The price is in a significant upward trend (shown by the blue channel); → The price may continue to rise along the median line. Since then, the Nikkei 225 index (Japan 225 on FXOpen)...
Bitcoin Has Surfaced Following a Dive
Market picture On Sunday, the cryptocurrency market moved to a rapid rise, completing a consolidation after a correction. Cryptocurrencies positively played off the strengthening chances of Trump’s victory after the assassination attempt. In addition, buyers were...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0876; (P) 1.0893; (R1) 1.0925; More…. No change in EUR/USD’s outlook and intraday bias remains on the upside for the moment. Decisive break of 1.0915 resistance will resume whole rise from 1.0601 to 100% projection of 1.0601 to 1.0915 from 1.0665...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2930; (P) 1.2960; (R1) 1.3019; More… No change in GBP/USD’s outlook and intraday bias remains on the upside. Rise from 1.2298 is in progress for 100% projection of 1.2298 to 1.2859 from 1.2612 at 1.3173, which is slightly above 1.3141 key medium...
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets Some segments of the US yield curve disinverted in the wake of the Trump shooting. The presidential candidate’s odds to win the November election have increased as a result. His pro-business (for the US at least) agenda is seen as a boost to the economy as...
News of the Week (July 15—19): EURGBP Outlook!
The EURGBP, representing the exchange rate between the Euro and the British Pound, is a key measure of economic interplay between the Eurozone and the United Kingdom. The Euro’s value is primarily influenced by the financial policies and performance of the Eurozone...
A Clearer Shape of a Long-Term Dollar Decline
While Trump’s rise to power is widely seen as a positive for the dollar, the dollar index hit a one-month low on Monday as it continues to rebound from the Fed’s latest softening tone and inflation slowdown. The impact of Trump’s policies on the dollar is largely...
Bullish Pound Eyes $1.30 Ahead of UK Inflation Test
June CPI numbers the highlight of this week’s UK data flurry Could the Bank of England cut interest rates next month? Pound undeterred as it extends July gains Job stats and retail sales to follow Wednesday’s CPI report (06:00 GMT) On target Inflation in the UK peaked...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8927; (P) 0.8949; (R1) 0.8966; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF is neutral for the moment, but further fall is expected with 0.9000 resistance intact. Below 0.8914 will target 0.8825 low. Break of 0.8825 will target 50% retracement of 0.8332 to...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.03; (P) 158.24; (R1) 159.12; More… USD/JPY’s fall from 161.94 is seen as correcting the whole five-wave rally from 140.25. Deeper decline is in favor and sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 157.67) will affirm this bearish case. Next target...
Calm Markets Await Powell’s Insights on Disinflation and Rate Cuts
Global financial markets lack clear direction today. Major European stock indexes are trading slightly lower, while US futures indicate a modestly higher open. Investors are unfazed by the assassination attempt on former US President Donald Trump, maintaining a calm...
GBP/USD Outlook: Cable Holding Near 1.3000 Barrier Ahead of Powell’s Speech
Cable keeps form tone on Monday and hit new yearly high, trading just ticks under psychological 1.30 barrier. The pair advanced strongly in past two weeks and bulls may start to lose traction on facing headwinds from 1.30 resistance, as daily studies are overbought,...
Gold’s Rally Stalls at 7-Week High
Gold jumped to its highest level since May 22 last week But fails to extend rally, trading flat in past couple of sessions Despite latest weakness, oscillators remain positively tilted Gold has been experiencing solid gains since late June, with the break above its...
Oil Price Update – Oil Prices Hold Firm as Chinese Demand Concerns Rise
Oil prices remain stable despite a turbulent weekend and a strong US dollar. Chinese economic data, including disappointing GDP growth and declining refinery output, raises concerns about oil demand. The focus shifts from supply concerns in the US to demand worries in...
NZ Dollar Dips After Soft Services PMI
The New Zealand dollar has started the trading week in negative territory. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6097 in the European session, down 0.35% on the day at the time of writing. New Zealand Services PMI slips The week started on a sour note in New Zealand as the Services...
EURUSD Jumps to a Fresh 1-month High
EURUSD edges higher after break above SMAs The pair advances to its highest level since June 4 Oscillators suggest that bullish forces are strengthening EURUSD has been in a steady uptrend after the bullish breakout from its downward sloping trendline in place since...
Japanese Yen Surges Amidst Potential Interventions
The Japanese yen showed significant strength against the US dollar late last week, with the USD/JPY pair currently stabilizing around 157.86. This marks the lowest level for the currency pair in nearly a month. The yen’s recent surge is attributed to widespread market...
Copper (HG_F) Elliott Wave : Buying the Dips at the Equal Legs Zone
In this technical article we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of Copper (HG_F) commodity , published in members area of the website. As our members know, Copper has recently given us correction against the October 2023 low. The commodity...
Eurozone industrial productions falls -0.6% mom in May, EU down -0.8% mom
Eurozone industrial production fell -0.6% mom in May, better than expectation of -1.0% mom. Production decreased by -1.0% for intermediate goods, 1.2% for capital goods, and 1.8% for durable consumer goods. Production increased by 0.8% for energy, and 1.6% for...
Bitcoin Once Again Above $60k
Analysing the long-term BTC/USD chart from 16th May, we constructed a “roadmap” for Bitcoin’s price, resembling an expanding fan consisting of a median and support levels below it, and resistance levels above it. Reviewing the BTC/USD chart last time (9 thJuly), we...
FX option expiries for 15 July 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD, centered closely in and around the 1.0900 mark. The ones at the figure level are quite huge in size, so they could act as a magnet on price action for the session ahead. That at...
Weaker China GDP Dampens Sentiment; ECB and Global Inflation Data Highlight the Week
Asian markets began the week with a cautious tone, as weaker-than-expected GDP growth from China dampened investor sentiment, even though the selloff in stocks has been limited. Today’s set of data, coupled with recent weak PMI readings, points to broader deceleration...
Gold as an Investment: Detailed Analysis and Price Forecasts for 2025-2050
Since ancient times, gold has remained a crucial element of global economies. Its unique properties have made it not only valuable as jewellery but also a reliable means of preserving wealth. Today, this metal constitutes a significant part of both investor portfolios...
Summary 7/15 – 7/19
Monday, Jul 15, 2024 Tuesday, Jul 16, 2024 Wednesday, Jul 17, 2024 Thursday, Jul 18, 2024 Friday, Jul 19, 2024 The post Summary 7/15 – 7/19 appeared first on Action Forex.
June Inflation Report and BOS Survey Set the Stage for BoC’s Next Rate Cut
The Bank of Canada’s quarterly Business Outlook Survey (BOS) and June’s inflation data will be the last major data releases before the BoC’s next interest rate announcement on July 24. We expect a slowdown in inflation after an upside surprise in May and for the BOS...
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/CHF’s late breach of 0.9754 resistance last week suggests that rise from 0.9476 is resuming. Initial bias is back on the upside this week. Further rally would be seen to retest 0.9928 high. On the downside, however, break of 0.9677 will turn bias to the downside...
EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/AUD’s consolidation from 1.5996 continued last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. While another recovery cannot be ruled out, further decline is expected as long as 1.6211 resistance holds. Break of 1.5996 will resume larger...
Dollar Plummets as Markets Brace for Double or Even Triple Fed Rate Cuts This Year
Dollar weakened broadly last weeks market expectations on Fed’s policy path shifted dramatically. The June US CPI report continued the narrative painted by the previous week’s Non-Farm Payroll data, both suggesting further cooling in economic activity and easing price...
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/GBP’s late break of 0.8396 support suggests that larger down trend is resuming. Initial bias remains on the downside this week. Next near term target is 61.8% projection of 0.8619 to 0.8396 from 0.8498 at 0.8360. Firm break there could prompt downside acceleration...
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/JPY retreated sharply after edging higher to 208.09 last week. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, a short term top should be in place. Deeper pullback could be seen through 203.82 temporary low. But downside should be contained by 38.2%...
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CAD edged lower to 1.3588 last week but recovered after hitting 1.3589 support. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, firm break of 1.3589 will extend the corrective pattern from 1.3845 and target 100% projection of 1.3845 to 1.3589 from...
AUD/USD Weekly Report – Action Forex
AUD/USD’s rally from 0.6361 continued last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 61.8% projection of 0.6361 to 0.6713 from 0.6619 at 0.6837. Decisive break there could prompt upside acceleration through 0.6870 resistance to 100%...
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/USD’s strong break of 1.2859 resistance last week confirmed resumption of rally from 1.2298. Initial bias stays on the upside this week. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2298 to 1.2859 from 1.2612 at 1.3173, which is slightly above 1.3141 key medium term...
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/JPY’s sharp decline last week confirmed short term topping at 161.94. Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, fall from 161.94 is likely corrective whole five-wave rally from 140.25. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 160.25 support turned...
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/USD’s rally continued last week and hit as high as 1.0910. Initial bias stays on the upside this week. Firm break of 1.0915 will resume howl rise from 1.0601 to 100% projection of 1.0601 to 1.0915 from 1.0665 at 1.0979. On the downside, below 1.0859 minor support...
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CHF’s fall from 0.9049 continued last week despite interim recovery. As noted before, rebound from 8825 should have completed after rejection by channel resistance. Deeper decline is expected as long as 0.9000 resistance holds, to 0.8825 low. Break of 0.8825 will...
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/JPY fell sharply after edging higher to 175.41 last week. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, a short term top should be in place. Deeper correction cannot be ruled out. But for now, downside should be contained by 170.87 and bring rebound, to set...
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Balanced Risks Drive the FOMC Closer to a September Rate Cut
Summary United States: Fed’s Challenge: Making Sure Fire Is Out vs. Water Damage We learned this week that CPI declined in June and core prices rose at the slowest clip since early 2021. With the inflation target in sight, Fed policymakers are taking stock of...
The Weekly Bottom Line: U.S. – Inflation Cooling
U.S. Highlights U.S. inflation eased by more than expected in the month of June, raising the likelihood of a September rate cut. Small business confidence continued to edge higher in June, though several forward-looking indicators suggests some softening in the months...
The Week Ahead – ECB Spotlight as Fed Rate Speculations Drive Market Shifts
US inflation data caused a significant selloff in US mega-cap tech stocks and a shift towards riskier areas of the market. The ECB interest rate decision is expected to bring no change, but the bank lending survey may shed light on the impact of higher rates on the...
Market Analysis: GBP/USD Eyes 1.3000 While EUR/GBP Struggles
GBP/USD is gaining pace above the 1.2900 resistance. EUR/GBP declined and is now consolidating losses above the 0.8400 region. Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today The British Pound is attempting a fresh increase above 1.2950. There is a key...
Nasdaq 100 Index Fell Despite Positive Inflation News
Yesterday, Consumer Price Index (CPI) values were published, indicating a slowdown in the rate of inflation in the USA. According to ForexFactory: → CPI month-on-month: actual = -0.1%, forecast = 0.1%, previous month = 0.0%; → CPI year-on-year: actual = 3.0%, forecast...
NZ Dollar Edges Higher Despite Soft Mfg. Data
The New Zealand dollar is slightly higher on Friday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6110 in the European session, up 0.24% on the day at the time of writing. New Zealand dollar showing big swings It has been a volatile few days for the New Zealand dollar. On Wednesday,...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.97; (P) 159.37; (R1) 161.30; More… No change in USD/JPY’s outlook. Deeper decline is expected with 160.25 support turned resistance intact. Fall from 161.94 is seen as corrective the five-wave rally from 140.25. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8919; (P) 0.8961; (R1) 0.9007; More… No change in USD/CHF’s outlook as further decline is expected with 0.9000 resistance intact. Deeper decline would be seen to 0.88825 support. Fall from 0.9223 should be in progress with near term channel...
EUR/USD Outlook: Bulls Hold Grip for Further Advance
EURUSD continues to trend higher, with minimal negative impact from hotter than expected US PPI data (Jun 0.2% m/m vs 0.1% f/c and 0.0% in May). The latest bull-leg extends into third straight and day pressuring Thursday’s post US CPI spike high (1.0898) which guards...
Week Ahead – ECB Set to Hold Rates, Plethora of Data on the Way
ECB is not expected to cut in July but will it signal one for next meeting? Retail sales will be the main highlight in the United States UK CPI report will be vital for BoE’s August decision China GDP data to kickstart busy week ECB meets amid sticky inflation The...
A September Fed Rate Cut Could Lead to Easing Spree During end-2024
Market prices in at least two rate cuts from Fed ECB, BoE expected to follow suit despite divergent economic conditions SNB and BoC could ease further; RBNZ possibly close to a summer rate cut BoJ and RBA could surprise with rate hikes during 2024 We are halfway into...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2858; (P) 1.2903; (R1) 1.2960; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Decisive break of 61.8% projection of 1.2298 to 1.2859 from 1.2612 at 1.2959 would prompt upside acceleration through 1.3141 resistance to 100%...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0829; (P) 1.0864; (R1) 1.0904; More…. No change in EUR/USD’s outlook and intraday bias stays on the upside for retesting 1.0915 resistance. Decisive break there will resume whole rally from 1.0601 and target 100% projection of 1.0601 to 1.0915...
Dollar Softens Post-PPI Release, Yet Selling Momentum Remains Limited
Dollar is under some selling pressure in early US session despite stronger-than-expected PPI readings. However, downside momentum of the greenback is relatively limited. The post-CPI selloff yesterday did not gain significant traction, partly because stock markets...
US PPI rises 0.2% mom, 2.6% yoy, largest annual advance in more than a year
US PPI for final demand rose 0.2% mom in June, slightly above expectation of 0.1% mom. PPI rose 2.6% yoy for the 12 months ended in June, above expectation of 2.2% yoy. That’s also the largest annual advance since March 2023. PPI less foods, energy, and trade services...
Analysis of USD/JPY: Was There an Intervention?
Yesterday’s news of slowing inflation in the US sharply weakened the dollar, anticipating the Federal Reserve’s monetary easing. In the first 15 minutes after the data release: → EUR/USD rose by approximately 0.45% to the psychological level of 1.09; → GBP/USD...
Corporates Have Weighed in on Crypto Once Again
Market picture The crypto market capitalisation fell by 0.8% in 24 hours to $2.11 trillion. An attempt to strengthen the market’s offensive on news about inflation in the US attracted new sellers, which this time can easily be linked to the similar dynamics of the...
USD/JPY Stabilizes After Massive Slide
The Japanese yen has edged lower on Friday, after posting huge gains a day earlier. USD/JPY is trading at 159.16 in the European session, up 0.26% on the day at the time of writing. Japanese yen soars – soft US inflation or intervention? The US dollar was down against...
Cliff Notes: Shifting Risks and Rhetoric
Key insights from the week that was. The July Westpac-MI Consumer Sentiment Survey confirmed that households remain downbeat, with the headline index falling 1.1% to 82.7. The latest update continues to speak to a challenging context, characterised by a resurgence in...
GBPJPY Hits 20-Day SMA After Multi-Year High
GBPJPY may start bearish correction Stochastics move down; RSI ticks up GBPJPY suffered significant losses following an aggressive rally to the multi-year high of 208.10. The pair found immediate support at the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) of 203.80, keeping the...
XAU/USD: Gold May Rally Further After US CPI Data Boosted Bets for September Fed Rate Cut
Gold price eases from new seven-week high on Friday morning, as traders took some profits from Thursday’s 1.9% post-US CPI data rally. The yellow metal received fresh boost from cooler than expected US inflation, which boosted bets (93% from 70% before the data) for...
Japanese Yen Surges: Potential Intervention Amid Inflation Shocks
The USD/JPY pair experienced a significant drop to 159.06, driven by sharp declines following the release of unexpectedly low US inflation figures and potential interventions from Japanese authorities. On Thursday, the pair plunged nearly 3%, prompted by US inflation...
USDCAD Trades Sideways as 200-SMA Provides Support
USDCAD is rangebound in the past few sessions The 200-day SMA caps the pair’s downside Momentum indicators are negatively tilted USDCAD had been hovering around its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) for the past two months, appearing incapable of clearing this...
FX option expiries for 12 July 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 level. That could be a bit of a magnet for price action and if anything else, limit any major pullback to the gains from yesterday. That is before the expiries roll...
Yen’s Sharp Rally Pauses, Japan Declines to Confirm Intervention
Japanese Yen is currently the best performer of the week, bolstered by alleged intervention by Japanese authorities overnight. Both Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki and outgoing top currency official Masato Kanda declined to confirm whether Japan had intervened, with...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.38; (P) 161.59; (R1) 161.93; More… USD/JPY declines sharply in early US session and breaks 160.25 support decisively. Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, fall from 161.49 might already be correcting the whole five-wave rally from...
US: Inflationary Pressures Cool Faster than Expected in June, Bolstering Case for September Rate Cut
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.1% month-on-month (m/m), below the consensus forecast calling for a modest 0.1% gain. On a twelve-month basis, CPI edged lower by 0.3 percentage points to 3.0%. Lower energy prices – largely attributed to a 3.7% decline in...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8973; (P) 0.8987; (R1) 0.9011; More… USD/CHF’s decline from 0.9049 resumed by breaking through 0.8942 support and intraday bias remains is back on the downside for retesting 0.8825. Fall from 0.9223 should be in progress with near term channel...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2800; (P) 1.2825; (R1) 1.2872; More… GBP/USD’s rally continues today and intraday bias stays on the upside for 61.8% projection of 1.2298 to 1.2859 from 1.2612 at 1.2959. Decisive break there would prompt upside acceleration through 1.3141 to 100%...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0817; (P) 1.0824; (R1) 1.0838; More…. EUR/USD’s rise from 1.0665 resumed by breaking through 1.0844 temporary top and intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.0915 resistance. Firm break there will resume whole rally from 1.0601 and target 100%...
AUD/USD Mid-Day Report – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6735; (P) 0.6744; (R1) 0.6755; More... Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside as current rally continues to 61.8% projection of 0.6361 to 0.6713 from 0.6619 at 0.6837. Decisive break there could prompt upside acceleration through 0.6870...
EUR/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 174.50; (P) 174.83; (R1) 175.45; More… EUR/JPY’s strong break of 173.50 support suggests that a short term top was formed at 175.41, on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. But there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. While deeper pullback...
ECB Preview – Holiday Season
The ECB meeting next week is expected to be largely a stock taking meeting and not a place to send new policy signals. The meeting by meeting and data dependent approach is clear and Lagarde has highlighted that the profit, wages and productivity data will be key,...
EUR/GBP Technical: Make the Pound Great Again
EUR/GBP has resumed its downward trajectory since the start of the year, now trading close to a 2-year low at 0.8320. Unfavourable political environment in France versus a newly formed Labour-led UK government that favours pro-growth policies may see further...
June CPI: September Rate Cut Incoming
Summary This morning’s CPI report was arguably the most encouraging one the FOMC has received since it began its inflation fight nearly two and a half years ago. Consumer prices declined by 0.1%, led lower by a drop in energy prices and a modest increase in food...
GBP/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 206.68; (P) 207.25; (R1) 208.34; More… GBP/JPY’s steep decline and strong break of 206.12 support suggest that a short term top is formed at 208.09, on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, downside...
Fed Sep Cut Now Realistic after US CPI; Japan Intervenes to Boost Yen?
Dollar tumbled sharply in early US session following lower-than-expected consumer inflation readings. Headline CPI showed its first month-over-month decline since early 2023, while core CPI annual rate unexpectedly slowed to its lowest level since April 2021. Now, a...
US initial jobless claims falls to 222k vs exp 239k
US initial jobless claims fell -17k to 222k in the week ending July 6, below expectation of 239k. Four-week moving average of initial claims fell -4k to 233.5k. Continuing claims fell -4k to 1852k in the week ending June 29. Four-week moving average of continuing...
GBP/USD: Stronger than Expected UK GDP Numbers Lift Cable to Four-Month High
Cable hit new four-month high in European trading on Thursday, lifted by better than expected UK May GDP numbers, which poured cold water on expectations for BoE rate cut next month. Fresh strength broke through pivotal barriers at 1.2846/60 (200WMA/former top June...
Pound on the Offensive – Action Forex
Positive news for the Pound, beyond the fact that England will play in the Euro-24 final. The monthly estimate showed that the economy grew by 0.4% in May (twice as much as expected) and that growth in the last three months accelerated to 1% year-on-year. That’s the...
Market Analysis: EUR/USD Jumps, USD/JPY Bulls Seem Unstoppable
EUR/USD is climbing higher above the 1.0800 level. USD/JPY surged above the 160.00 and 161.40 resistance levels. Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today The Euro started a decent increase above the 1.0780 pivot level. There is a key bullish trend...
Markets Awaiting US Inflation Data: What is the Probability of Trend Reversals?
The major currency pairs are in a holding pattern following the release of the latest US labour market data and Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress. The Fed Chair noted that the Federal Reserve has made “significant progress” in its mission to combat inflation,...
Crypto Lacks Bulls – Action Forex
Market picture It seems that all the market bulls have moved on to US and Japanese equities, avoiding cryptocurrencies. The cryptocurrency market failed to break out of its consolidation, and its capitalisation rolled back 1.3% to $2.13 trillion, inside the range from...
USD/CAD Price Outlook: 200-day MA Holds Ahead of US CPI Release
USD/CAD has been range-bound, reflecting US Dollar Index consolidation and potential rate differential between Canada and the US. Canada’s volatile inflation and struggling labor market increase pressure on the Bank of Canada (BoC). USD/CAD is positioned between key...
AUDUSD Posts a Fresh 6-month High
AUDUSD breaks decisively above sideways pattern The price jumps to its highest since January 2024 Oscillators are flagging overbought conditions AUDUSD had been trading in a neutral range for more than two months, unable to adopt a clear directional impetus. However,...
Japanese Yen Faces Continued Decline Amid Interest Rate Differentials
The USD/JPY pair has risen to 161.65, with the market cautious ahead of today’s US consumer price index release. Despite this, the yen remains weakened by the significant interest rate differential between the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve. Earlier this...
Dollar Mixed with Inflation Data on Deck; Sterling Maintains Lead
Dollar weakened notably against Sterling and Aussie overnight, but held steady against other currencies. Market focus is now on the upcoming US consumer inflation data, with expectations of a slowdown in the headline CPI and steady core CPI. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s...
FX option expiries for 11 July 10am New York cut
There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first being for USD/CHF at the 0.8950 level. It isn't one that holds any technical significance but could hold any downside pressure as it coincides with the weekly pivot. The ceiling for...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8965; (P) 0.8978; (R1) 0.8991; More… USD/CHF is staying in range of 0.8942/9049 and intraday bias remains neutral. As noted before, rebound from 0.8825 could have completed at 0.9049, after rejection by falling channel resistance. Below 0.8942...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.85; (P) 161.18; (R1) 161.63; More… USD/JPY is still staying in range below 161.95 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is expected with 160.25 minor support intact. On the upside, break of 161.94 will resume larger up trend to 61.8%...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2768; (P) 1.2797; (R1) 1.2815; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as consolidation continues below 1.2845. Further rally is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.2752) holds. Firm break of 1.2859 will resume the rally from 1.2298 and...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0802; (P) 1.0824; (R1) 1.0845; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as consolidation continues below 1.0844. Further rally is in favor as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0789) holds. On the upside, above 1.0844 will resume the rebound from...
New Zealand Dollar Takes a Tumble After RBNZ’s Dovish Tone
The New Zealand dollar is sharply lower on Wednesday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6081 in the European session, down 0.72% on the day at the time of writing. RBNZ’s dovish tone raises rate cut expectations The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the cash rate at 5.50% at...
AUD/NZD: Kiwi Torpedoed by Surprise Dovish Tilt from RBNZ
The Kiwi is the worst intraday performer among the major currencies as it slumped to a 4-week low against the US dollar. A dovish tilt in the latest RBNZ monetary policy statement has triggered a narrowing of the yield discount between the 2-year Australian and New...
Weak Inflation in China Clears the Way for Global Easing
China’s consumer inflation slowed from 0.3% y/y to 0.2% instead of the expected acceleration to 0.4%, bringing investors’ attention back to weak demand. Meanwhile, manufacturing price deflation slowed from -1.4% y/y to -0.8% y/y, staying in negative territory for the...
GBPAUD Holds Above Key Support Area
GBPAUD consolidates above key support zone RSI and MACD detect negative momentum But a break below 1.8900 is needed to darken the outlook A rebound above 1.9350 may invite more bulls GBPAUD has been trading in a consolidative manner lately staying above the key...
UK Data Eyed as Pound Celebrates Labour Win
Monthly GDP and production figures for June on tap Strong data might hurt August rate cut expectations Pound flirts with $1.28 ahead of Thursday’s release (06:00 GMT) Uptick in GDP expected The UK economy got off to a solid start this year, emerging strongly from a...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets In today’s extremely dull trading session, some volatility in the New Zealand dollar, Norwegian krone and Czech koruna are keeping us somewhat entertained. You’ll find the latter two in the section down below. NZD is under pressure (NZD/USD 0.6078) following...
BoE’s Pill warns of uncomfortable strength in underlying inflation
In a speech today, BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill highlighted that while it is “welcome news” that the UK’s headline CPI returned to 2% in May, it is crucial for the inflation target to be achieved on a “lasting and sustainable basis.” He emphasized three key indicators...
RBNZ Dovishness Hits Kiwi – Action Forex
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept its benchmark interest rate at 5.5% for the eighth consecutive meeting, which was in line with analyst expectations. However, the central bank’s comments were softer than expected, dragging down NZDUSD by around 1% to 0.6070, a low...
Yen Weakness Persists in Calm Trading; Dollar Range-Bound
Yen continues its extended selloff today, except against New Zealand Dollar, in an otherwise subdued forex market. Reports indicate that BoJ may lower its economic growth forecasts for this year at its meeting later in July, while predicting that inflation will hover...
Fed Chair Explicitly Said He Didn’t Intend to Give Any Rate Timing Signals
Markets Fed Chair Powell before Congress yesterday reiterated that the US economy is coming into better balance. It made considerable progress toward the Fed’s 2% target. The labour market has cooled but remains strong. Even so, data still have to provide the MPC...
Crypto Market Looks to Return to Growth
Market Picture According to the sentiment index, the cryptocurrency market remains in a state of fear at 28. Still, market capitalisation rose for the second day in a row as lower prices attracted buyers. Capitalisation rose 1.9% to $2.16 trillion, surpassing previous...
NZD/USD Outlook: Kiwi Dollar Down 1% on Dovish RBNZ
NZDUSD was sharply lower during Wednesday morning (down almost 1% for the session) deflated by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s dovish stance. The central bank left interest rates unchanged at 5.5%, as widely expected, but signaled that the door for possible rate cut...
Analysis of NZD/USD: “Kiwi” Sharply Fell After Central Bank’s Decision
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept the interest rate unchanged at 5.5% on Wednesday. The decision to maintain the interest rate was anticipated. However, market participants noted a shift in the tone of the RBNZ’s official statements. In May, the bank...
USDJPY Reapproaches Multi-Year Highs – Action Forex
USDJPY edges higher after the pullback from 38-year high pauses The risk of a Japanese intervention is active at current levels Momentum indicators provide overbought signals USDJPY experienced a minor setback from its 38-year high of 161.95, which quickly came to a...
NZDUSD Tumbles After RBNZ’s Decision
NZDUSD finds support at 200-day SMA Prices have been heading lower over the last month Stochastics and RSI keep downside move NZDUSD is posting notable losses after the RBNZ’s policy decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 5.5%. The pair is pausing its decline...
Is It Time for Gold to Emerge Above Key Resistance?
Gold trades higher, but withing a broader sideways range RSI and MACD imply strengthening upside momentum A break above 2388 could add to the bullish case A dip below 2340 may allow declines within the range Gold is moving higher today, after hitting support near the...
Gold Prices Rise Amid Anticipation of Fed Rate Cut
Gold prices continue to experience an upward trend, reaching 2368 USD per troy ounce, fuelled by growing market anticipation of a potential rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. As investors focus on upcoming US inflation data, gold remains a focal point of investment...
NZD Tumbles on RBNZ Rate Cut Hints; Markets Largely Ignore Fed’s Powell
New Zealand Dollar plunged sharply after RBNZ’s more dovish than expected statement caught the market off guard. RBNZ’s indication of potential future rate cuts was unexpected, even though it’s not a hint on an imminent move. The central bank’s timing of this shift in...
FX option expiries for 10 July 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD at 1.0770-75. However, the expiries do not hold much technical significance with key support still seen at around 1.0795-00 currently. That coincides with the confluence of the...
Crypto Bargain-Hunters Are Back – Action Forex
Market picture Bargain hunters are showing themselves in full force in crypto. Cryptocurrency market capitalisation rose 3.6% in 24 hours to $2.11 trillion, climbing back to the top of the range of the past five days. It will take the market to rise another 2% before...
XAU/USD Analysis: Gold Price Falls from Six-Week High
As shown by the XAU/USD chart, on Friday, 5 July, the price of gold rose above the $2390 level for the first time since 22 May. According to Reuters, this increase occurred following the release of key US employment data, which indicated a softening labour market,...
DAX Elliott Wave: Buying the Dips at the Blue Box Area
Hello fellow traders. In this article we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of DAX published in members area of the website. As our members know DAX is showing impulsive bullish sequences and we are keep favoring the long side. Recently we got a...
GBP/USD Outlook: Bulls Pause ahead of Powell
Cable is holding within a narrow range under new multi-week high during European trading on Tuesday, as markets await today’s key event – the testimony of Fed Chair Powell. Long upper shadow of Monday’s daily candle and overbought conditions on daily chart suggest...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0802; (P) 1.0824; (R1) 1.0845; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidations below 1.0844 temporary top. Further rally is in favor as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0783) holds. On the upside, above 1.0844 will resume the rebound...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2785; (P) 1.2815; (R1) 1.2838; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for consolidation below 1.2845. Further rally is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.2743) holds. Firm break of 1.2859 will resume the rally from 1.2298 and target...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8954; (P) 0.8966; (R1) 0.8987; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral for the moment. As noted before, rebound from 0.8825 could have completed at 0.9049, after rejection by falling channel resistance. Below 0.8942 will bring deeper fall to...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.28; (P) 160.84; (R1) 161.35; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral at this point. Further rally is expected with 160.25 minor support intact. On the upside, break of 161.94 temporary top will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of...
Euro Shrugs as Investor Confidence Tumbles
The euro is showing little movement on Tuesday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0819, up 0.05% on the day. The eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence index resumed its losing ways on Monday. The index slid to -7.3 in July, after a 0.3 gain in June. Prior to the June reading, the...
NZD Edges Lower Ahead of RBNZ Decision
The New Zealand dollar is steady on Tuesday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6115, down 0.16% in the European session at the time of writing. The New Zealand dollar looked sharp last week against the slumping US dollar, climbing 0.88%. Reserve Bank expected to hold rates...
Fed’s Powell highlights risks beyond elevated inflation
In his prepared remarks for the semiannual testimony to Congress, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that it is not appropriate to cut interest rate until there is “greater confidence” that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%. Nevertheless, He noted that recent...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets European markets were captured in an indecisive trading pattern yesterday, in the wake of the surprise win of the left alliance in the French elections. Spreads of France (and other peripheral EMU countries) initially tightened marginally as none of the...
Markets Await Fed Powell’s Insights, RBNZ on Deck
As US session kicks off, Dollar is trading mildly higher, with traders eagerly anticipating Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s two-day semiannual testimony before Congress. The key questions looming over the markets are whether the Fed will initiate interest rate cuts in...
Australian Dollar Drifting After Mixed Confidence Data
The Australian dollar continues to show little movement this week. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6638 in the European session, up 0.02% on the day. Australia released mixed confidence indicators earlier today while there are no US economic releases. Federal Reserve Chair...
Gold Technical: Further Drift Down in 10-year UST Real Yield Supports Bullish Narrative in Gold
Recent rebound in WTI crude has remained below US$90/barrel which in turn led to a softening of inflationary expectations via the breakeven rates. A further downward drift in the 10-year US breakeven rate may a further drop in the 10-year US Treasury real yield. Lower...
Pound Preparing for Bullish Breakout
GBPUSD is trading near 1.28, which has acted as an area of resistance in the pair since last December. At the same time, the range of fluctuations of the pound is narrowing, as since October, the downside impulses have become less and less deep, with the price...
ECB’s Panetta backs gradual rate cuts amid stabilizing inflation
ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta indicated today the “reduction of official rates could proceed gradually”, in line with the return of inflation towards the ECB’s target. Speaking to bankers in Rome, Panetta emphasized that as long as macroeconomic trends...
WTI Outlook: Correction Should Find Firm Supports at $80 Zone
WTI oil price is easing for the third day, correcting lower from new multi-week high ($84.50, the highest since mid-Apr). Bulls lost traction after milder than expected impact of the hurricane on oil installations in the Gulf of Mexico, eased concerns about supply...
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 173.54; (P) 174.08; (R1) 174.65; More… Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 174.50 will resume the larger up trend and target 138.2% projection of 164.01 to 170.87 from 167.52 at 177.00. On the...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 205.28; (P) 205.98; (R1) 206.66; More… Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral with loss of momentum as seen in 4H MACD. On the upside, sustained break of 100% projection of 191.34 to 200.72 from 197.18 at 206.56 will target 138.2% projection at...
EURJPY Moves Beneath Its Lifetime High of 174.60
EURJPY struggles to jump above its recent high Momentum oscillators look overstretched EURJPY skyrocketed to a fresh multi-year high of 174.60 in the previous week but is currently hovering slightly below this level, with the technical oscillators suggesting an...
GBPUSD Advances Towards 2024 Highs
GBPUSD rebounds from its 50-day SMA The price jumps to its highest since June 12 Momentum indicators are tilted to the upside GBPUSD has been slowly gaining ground following its bounce off the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) in late June. Moreover, the pair has...
FX option expiries for 9 July 10am New York cut
There are just two to really take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.They are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0800 and 1.0875 levels. The former is arguably the one with more interest, as it lines up near the key daily moving averages. The technical significance...
Dollar Recovers Ahead of Powell’s Testimony; Market Awaits Clues on Rate Cuts
Dollar is recovering mildly overnight, as traders prepare for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s highly anticipated two-day Congressional testimony. Powell is scheduled to address the Senate today and the House tomorrow. Fed’s latest dot plot suggests median expectation of...
News of the Week (July 8—12): NZDUSD Detailed Analysis!
The NZDUSD pair, often called the “Kiwi,” refers to the exchange rate between the New Zealand dollar and the US dollar and is an important indicator for understanding the economic relationship between New Zealand and the United States. The New Zealand dollar is...
EUR/USD Gains Ground Despite French Election Shocker
The euro has started the week with gains and is trading at 1.0836 in the European session, up 0.33% on the day. EUR/USD is coming off its best week of the year, gaining 1.19%. France veers to the left in Round 2 France has been on a political roller over the past two...
Oil Price Update – Oil Prices Fall as Gaza Talks and Hurricane Beryl Take Center Stage
Geopolitical events and weather disruptions are currently the main drivers of oil price fluctuations. OPEC+ production cuts have contributed to tighter oil markets, supporting prices. Can it continue? Technical analysis suggests key support and resistance levels to...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2773; (P) 1.2796; (R1) 1.2837; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside as rally from 1.2612 is in progress for retesting 1.2859 resistance. Firm break there will resume the rally from 1.2298 and target 61.8% projection of 1.2298 to...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.28; (P) 160.84; (R1) 161.35; More… Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is expected with 160.25 minor support intact. On the upside, break of 161.94 temporary top will resume larger up trend to 61.8%...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8939; (P) 0.8973; (R1) 0.8992; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside for the moment. Rebound from 0.8825 could have completed at 0.9049, after rejection by falling channel resistance. Also, fall from 0.9223 is not completed yet....
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Yesterday’s second round in the French parliamentary elections resulted in a hung parliament, be it in a totally different setup than polls suggested. Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN) unexpectedly finished third, securing 143 seats. Macron’s centrists...
USDJPY Finds Strong Support at Key Fibo Zone
USDJPY hits key Fibo retracement level But momentum indicators still point to weakness A break above 161.35 could pave the way towards 161.65 A slide below 160.35 may invite more bears USDJPY traded higher today after it triggered some buy orders near the 160.35...
June CPI Preview: Some Payback for May, but Downward Trend Remains
Summary Consumer price inflation likely firmed in June relative to May but remained on a downward trajectory through the month-to-month noise. We estimate headline CPI rose 0.1% in June, with a decline in gasoline prices helping keep the overall increase in prices...
Could US CPI Report Finally Bring About a Fed Pivot?
Further decline in headline CPI is expected in June Labour market is also showing signs of slowdown Will Thursday’s report (12:30 GMT) convince the Fed it’s time to cut? Ahead of that, Powell testifies on Tuesday (14:00 GMT) Fed still not convinced After several...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0813; (P) 1.0827; (R1) 1.0854; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside, as rise from 1.0665 is in progress for retesting 1.0915 resistance. Firm break there will target 100% projection of 1.0601 to 1.0915 from 1.0665 at 1.0919 next....
Pound Gains on Hawkish BoE Remarks; Euro Regains Lost Ground
Sterling strengthened broadly today, support by comments from Jonathan Haskel, a known hawk on BoE’s MPC. Haskel indicated his preference to maintain interest rates until there is clear evidence that inflationary pressures have subsided sustainably. This stance has...
USD/JPY: Soft US Data Offers a Potential Relief Rally for JPY
Lacklustre US non-farm payrolls & ISM Services PMI for June has led to a further drop in US Treasury yields. Both the 2-year and 10-year US Treasuries/JGBs yield premiums have shrunk to a 5-month low. A lower positive carry using JPY as a funded currency and...
ECB’s Knot rules out July rate cut
ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot has indicated there is no case for another rate cut in July. In an interview with Handelsblatt, Knot stated, “I don’t see a case for another rate cut in July.” He emphasized that the next ECB meeting that will consider rate...
AUD/USD Hits Six-Month High Amid RBA Rate Hike Speculations
The AUD/USD pair reached a six-month high of 0.6752, marking its fifth consecutive day of gains. The currency’s strength is largely driven by market expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might diverge from the global trend of lowering interest rates,...
BoE’s Haskel advocates holding rates amid tight labor market
BoE MPC member Jonathan Haskel highlighted in a speech that assuming no further shocks, inflation will depend on the “interaction of a tight labour market and second-round effects as previous inflation works its way through the wage-price system.” Haskel emphasized...
GBP/USD Price Outlook: Cable Holds the High Ground, Multi-Month Resistance Up Ahead
GBP/USD is facing a key multi-month resistance level at 1.2850 after a positive run. The outcome of US inflation data and Fed Chair Powell’s testimony could significantly impact the GBP/USD exchange rate. A break above 1.2850 might require a catalyst, like a...