Forex
GBP/USD Price Outlook: Cable Holds the High Ground, Multi-Month Resistance Up Ahead
GBP/USD is facing a key multi-month resistance level at 1.2850 after a positive run. The outcome of US inflation data and Fed Chair Powell’s testimony could significantly impact the GBP/USD exchange rate. A break above 1.2850 might require a catalyst, like a...
BoJ highlights spread of big firm wage hikes to smaller companies
In the Regional Economic Report, BoJ maintained its economic assessment for five out of Japan’s nine regions, while upgrading two and downgrading two. Eight regions, with the exception of Hokuriku, indicated that their economies had been recovering moderately, picking...
EUR/USD Outlook: Bullish Bias Above Daily Cloud
EURUSD opened with gap-lower on Monday but dip was short-lived and larger bulls regained control and pushed the price towards last Friday’s new multi-week high (1.0842). Today’s dip was contained by psychological 1.0800 support (also the top of rising hourly cloud)...
Eurozone Sentix drops sharply to -7.3 on rising political and economic uncertainties
Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence dropped sharply in July, falling from 0.3 to -7.3, significantly worse than the expected 0.0. This decline ends a series of eight consecutive rises and marks a severe setback. Current Situation Index also declined from -9.0 to...
Crypto: Bears Trying to Break the Neck of Bull Trend
Market Picture The cryptocurrency market is moving up and down, experiencing increased volatility with swings between 2.0 and 2.15 trillion. These are very intense swings, reflecting the massive amounts of capital flowing through the market. The Cryptocurrency Fear...
China’s Problems Could Cloud RBA’s Hawkish Intentions
China to gain more airtime this week The ailing housing sector and the bond rally in focus RBA remains hawkish, but consumer appetite is critical Aussie benefits from dollar weakness Market’s focus could turn to China this week The post non-farm payrolls week tends to...
FX option expiries for 8 July 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0785 level. It isn't one that offers much technical significance but could act alongside the key daily moving averages at 1.0794-97 in locking any downside price action in the...
Euro Edges Down Following Left-Wing Triumph in French Elections
Euro dips mildly a in Asian session after French parliamentary elections on Sunday delivered unexpected results. The markets had anticipated a challenging outcome for centrist President Emmanuel Macron, including a hung parliament. Yet, the outcome was particularly...
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/JPY’s up trend continued last week and hit as high as 206.42. Initial bias is on the upside this week for further rally. Firm break of 100% projection of 191.34 to 200.72 from 197.18 at 206.56 will target 138.2% projection at 210.17. On the downside, below 204.97...
EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/AUD stayed in consolidation above 1.5996 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first, but outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6211 support turned resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.5996 will target 100% projection...
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/GBP edged higher to 0.8498 last week, but failed to break through 55 D EMA (now at 0.8500) and retreated. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, sustained trading above 55 D EMA (now at 0.8501) will extend the rise from 0.8396 short term...
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CHF’s rally was rejected by near term falling channel last week and reversed from there. Immediate focus is now on 0.8956 support this week. Firm break there will argue that rebound from 0.8825 has completed and bring retest of this low. On the upside, break of...
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/JPY edged higher to 161.94 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 161.94 temporary top will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 146.47 to 160.20 from 154.53 at 163.01. Nevertheless, break...
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/USD’s strong rebound last week suggests that pull back from 1.0915 has completed at 1.0665 already. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 1.0915 resistance. Firm break there will target 100% projection of 1.0601 to 1.0915 from 1.0665 at 1.0919 next. On...
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast – Action Forex
EUR/USD: The US is Not Very Good, Europe is Not Very Bad On Friday, June 5, the Dollar Index (DXY) hit a three-week low, while the euro showed its largest weekly gain against the dollar in a year. This was due to the US not performing as well as expected and Europe...
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/USD’s strong rebound last week suggests that corrective pullback from 1.2859 has completed at 1.2612 already. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 1.2859 first. Firm break there will resume the rally from 1.2298 and target 61.8% projection of 1.2298 to...
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/CHF’s rebound from 0.9476 extended to as high as 0.9754 last week and turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first for consolidations. Deeper retreat might be seen but further rise is in favor as long as 0.9639 support holds. Above...
AUD/USD Weekly Report – Action Forex
AUD/USD’s rally from 0.6361 resumed by breaking through 0.6713 resistance last week. Initial bias stays on the upside this week. Next target is 61.8% projection of 0.6361 to 0.6713 from 0.6619 at 0.6837. On the downside, below 0.6699 minor support will turn intraday...
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CAD fell to 1.3602 last week but recovered ahead of 1.3589 support. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Corrective pattern from 1.3845 could still extend. Break of 1.3589 will target 100% projection of 1.3845 to 1.3589 from 1.3790 at 1.3534. Strong...
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/JPY’s up trend continued to 174.50 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias is neutral this week for some more consolidations first. On the upside, firm break of 174.50 will target 138.2% projection of 164.01 to 170.87 from 167.52 at 177.00. On the...
Pound Outshines as Dollar Sinks, Yen Stabilizing
The past week marked a significant downturn for Dollar, which found itself at the bottom of the currency performance chart. A slew of unfavorable economic reports has highlighted the tangible effects of sustained high interest rates on the American economy, fostering...
Softer U.S. Inflation Expected in June Ahead of Another Hold from Fed
June’s consumer price index data for the U.S. will be key in revealing whether the resurgence in inflation is over or if softer readings in April and May were just a short reprieve. On Thursday, we expect headline CPI growth to slow to 3.1% in June, down from 3.3% in...
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Because I Was Inverted
Summary United States: No Fireworks from the June Jobs Report It was a holiday-shortened week for many, but the economic data did not take a break. Nonfarm payrolls increased 206K in June; yet, downward revisions to the prior two months took much of the shine away...
The Weekly Bottom Line: Gearing Down
U.S. Highlights This week’s data all flashed signs of an economy slowly gearing down. Both ISM indicators signaled contraction, while revisions to prior month’s payrolls gains and an uptick in the unemployment rate show the labor market continues to cool. All eyes...
The Week Ahead – Will US Inflation Data Derail Market Optimism?
Soft US economic data, including lower-than-expected job growth, has increased market expectations for a September rate cut. The week ahead features important data releases, including US inflation figures and Chinese inflation data. US Inflation holds the key to a...
Summary 7/8 – 7/12
Monday, Jul 8, 2024 Tuesday, Jul 9, 2024 Wednesday, Jul 10, 2024 Thursday, Jul 11, 2024 Friday, Jul 12, 2024 The post Summary 7/8 – 7/12 appeared first on Action Forex.
Eurozone retail sales rises 0.1% mom in May, EU up 0.1% mom too
Eurozone retail sales volume rose 0.1% mom in May, below expectation of 0.2% mom. Sales volume, increased by 0.7% mom for food, drinks, tobacco, and by 0.4% mom for automotive fuel in specialized stores. Sales volume fell -0.2% mom for non-food products (except...
US NFP rises 206k in Jun, but May and Apr revised sharply lower
US Non-Farm Payroll employment increased by 206k in June, above expectation of 180k. Growth was slightly lower than average monthly gain of 220k over the prior 12 months. However, prior month’s growth was revised sharply lower from 272k to 218k. April’s figure was...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0791; (P) 1.0804; (R1) 1.0825; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Rise from 1.0665 is in progress to 1.0915 resistance first. Firm break there will resume whole rebound from 1.0601. Nevertheless, on the downside,...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2744; (P) 1.2756; (R1) 1.2772; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Rise from 1.2612 is in progress for retesting 1.2859 high. Firm break there will resume whole rally from 1.2298. On the downside, though, below...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8983; (P) 0.9012; (R1) 0.9031; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral first as consolidation from 0.9049 is extending. Further rise is mildly in favor as long as 0.8956 support holds. Above 0.9049 will affirm the case that corrective fall...
Canada’s Job Market Softens Further in June
Canadian employment was essentially unchanged in June (-1.6k), disappointing expectations for a modest 25k gain. Job losses were once again in full-time positions (-3.4k), while part-time jobs rose only slightly (1.9k). As a result, the unemployment rate rose two...
US: Payroll Gains Decelerate in June, While Unemployment Rate Ticks up to 4.1%
Non-farm employment increased by 206k in June, slightly above market expectations for a gain of 190k. However, job gains for the prior two months were revised materially lower by roughly 111k jobs. Private payrolls rose 136k, with most of the gains concentrated in...
Week Ahead – Round Two of French Elections, Powell Testimony and US CPI
French parties race to block Le Pen’s RN Powell testifies before Senate Banking Committee US CPI data to shake Fed rate cut bets RBNZ to leave OCR untouched, focus on language Euro traders keep gaze locked on French election Traders will be sitting on the edge of...
Spotlight on Kiwi as RBNZ Decides on Rates Next Week
Interest rates expected to hold stable at a 15-year high of 5.5% NZ inflation is still problematic; will the RBNZ talk about a rate hike again? NZDUSD bulls have some work to do; must surpass 0.6188-0.6200 to gain more fuel Kiwi has poor performance The New Zealand...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Payrolls have arrived. Net job creation in the US amounted to 206k in June. While slightly topping the 190k estimate, it came with a significant downward revision for the previous two months (-111k). In addition, about a third of June’s jobs came on the...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.92; (P) 161.30; (R1) 161.66; More… Outlook in USD/JPY is unchanged and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Further rally is expected as long as 160.25 minor support holds. Break of 161.94 will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection...
NFP Revisions Hits Dollar; But September Fed Cut Still Uncertain
Dollar weakened broadly after the release of the US Non-Farm Payroll report, though the initial selloff was far from decisive. June’s employment data showcased a robust labor market with near-average job and solid earnings growth , coupled with just a slight uptick in...
Canada’s employment falls -1.4k in Jun, unemployment rate rises further to 6.4%
Canada’s employment contracted -1.4k in June, much worse than expectation of 25.0k growth. Unemployment rate rose from 6.2% to 6.4%, above expectation of 6.3%. It has now risen 1.3% since April 2023. Employment rate fell -0.2% to 61.1%. Total hours worked were down...
XAU/USD Outlook: Gold Price Remains at the Front Foot Ahead of US NFP Report
Gold price rose further on Friday morning and pressuring important technical barriers ahead of release of key US NFP report. The metal rose around 1.7% for the week so far, benefiting from weaker dollar on soft US macroeconomic data, which point to a slowing US...
Pound About to Change Its Course
2024 has every chance of being the biggest election year, with well over half of the world’s population going to the polls. The next chapter in this saga is today, with the announcement of the results of the UK general elections. The results were generally in line...
UK Election: Labour Wins in a Landslide
The UK national election on Thursday propelled the Labour Party to a sweeping victory and Labour leader Keir Starmer will become the next Prime Minister. In the six-week election campaign of the election, Labour had a massive lead in the polls and there was no doubt...
Historic French Vote Could Propel Le Pen to Power
French election: Will the far-right win a majority? French voters will head to the polls on Sunday, July 7 for round two of the parliamentary elections. In the first round, Mary Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party (RN) made big gains and won 33% of the vote....
Terrifying Crypto Sell-off – Action Forex
Market picture The crypto market cap has fallen back below $2 trillion, accelerating its decline and losing over 8%, while many altcoins have suffered double-digit losses within the last 24 hours. Bitcoin pulled back to $54.7K, losing around 6.5% since the start of...
Gold Maintains Upward Trend as Market Anticipates US Jobs Data
Gold prices have continued their ascent, with a troy ounce of the precious metal reaching USD 2363. This rise is primarily fuelled by anticipated US employment data for June, which could significantly influence the Federal Reserve’s rate decisions. Recent US economic...
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 173.97; (P) 174.21; (R1) 174.61; More… Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is turned neutral first with current retreat, and some consolidations would be seen below 174.50. Further rally is expected as long as 170.87 resistance turned support holds, in case of...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 205.24; (P) 205.82; (R1) 206.36; More… Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat and some consolidations would be seen below 206.15. Further rise is expected as long as 200.72 resistance turned support holds. Firm break of 100%...
FX option expiries for 5 July 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD and a rather large one at that at the 1.0800 mark. However, the US holiday yesterday and dollar sluggishness on the week has seen price action move beyond the range of what I would've...
Dollar Under Pressure Ahead of NFP Data; Sterling Strengthens with Labour Victory
Dollar’s broad-based decline continues in Asian session today as market attention shifts to the highly anticipated US Non-Farm Payroll data. Traders are eager to see a weak report on job and wage growth to reinforce the expectation that the Fed will initiate a rate...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 204.90; (P) 205.54; (R1) 206.68; More… Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Firm break of 100% projection of 191.34 to 200.72 from 197.18 at 206.56 will target 138.2% projection at 210.17. On the downside, below 204.71...
Bitcoin More Likely to Fall to $51.5K Than Rise to $65.8K
Market picture The crypto market plunged 3.6% in 24 hours to $2.17 trillion, its lowest level since late February. Triggered stop orders in this morning’s thinly liquid market added to the magnitude of the decline, sending Bitcoin briefly below $57.7K and Ethereum to...
Bitcoin Falls Below $60k to a Two-Month Low
Upon analysing the long-term BTC/USD chart on 16 May, we constructed a “roadmap” for Bitcoin’s price, which appeared as an expanding fan and consisted of a median with support levels below it and resistance levels above it. Analysing the BTC/USD chart last time on 28...
USD/CAD Breaks Key Support – Action Forex
On 25 June, we noted that the USD/CAD price had approached a crucial support level—the lower boundary of a converging triangle, which indicated a relative balance of supply and demand in the market during May. Since then, the price has bounced twice from this level...
Brent Crude – Oil Runs into Resistance as EIA Inventories Fall
Brent Crude oil prices rose on Wednesday due to a larger-than-expected draw in US crude inventories. The market anticipates further inventory reduction, leading to potential support for prices in Q4. Technical analysis suggests bullish continuation, with a key...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets With US markets closed in observance of the 4th of July holiday; European based investors couldn’t do much but look forward and count down. Counting down to an almost certain outcome of the UK elections, to President Biden announcing to step out of the...
USDCAD Slides Towards the Lower Bound of a Range
USDCAD oscillates within a sideways range Momentum starts shifting negative A break below 1.3590 could turn the picture negative A move above 1.3750 could invite more bulls USDCAD came under selling interest this week, after hitting resistance near the 1.3750 zone,...
Crude Oil Moved Up But Looks Vulnerable
Crude oil inventories in US commercial storage fell by 12.2 million barrels last week, marking the sharpest decline since last July. The decrease is attributed to preparations for the start of the US driving season. Not only was the change significant, but it was also...
Market Analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Set for Steady Gains
AUD/USD is correcting gains from the 0.6735 zone. NZD/USD is showing positive signs and might attempt a fresh increase above 0.6120. Important Takeaways for AUD USD and NZD USD Analysis Today The Aussie Dollar started a downside correction from 0.6735 against the US...
Dollar’s Decline Slows as Selling Momentum Eases
Dollar remains subdued today, but selling momentum has turned weak. With US markets closed for the holiday, trading activity is expected to be light. Meanwhile, traders are also gearing up for tomorrow’s key US non-farm payroll data, which will be crucial. Further...
ECB divided over rate cut at June meeting
Accounts from ECB’s June meeting reveal that “almost all members” supported the 25bps rate cut. However, there was a significant “dissenting view”, arguing that recent data and ongoing inflationary risks “did not support the case for a rate cut”. The dissenters...
(ECB) Monetary policy accounts – Action Forex
Account of the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank held in Frankfurt am Main on Wednesday and Thursday, 5-6 June 2024 4 July 2024 1. Review of financial, economic and monetary developments and policy options Financial market...
EURUSD Holds Above 200-Period SMA
EURUSD continues the rebound off 1.0670 Price is bullish in near term Momentum oscillators are mixed EURUSD is finding strong support at the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) in the 4-hour chart near 1.0785. Also, the pair has been holding in an upside tendency...
WTI Crude Oil Moves Sideways in the Very Short-term
WTI crude oil still above SMAs RSI and MACD indicate weakening momentum WTI crude oil futures are continuing to bounce off the 72.45 support level, remaining in an upside mood, but the current very short-term view is neutral. The price stands above the 81.90 support...
ECB’s Lane Expects wage growth normalization in 2025
ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane, speaking in Italy today, expressed optimism that wage growth will normalize by 2025, based on surveys and forward-looking indicators among companies. “The reason why we think inflation will come down next year is that this is the last...
EUR/USD Outlook: Remains Constructive But Formation of Bull-Trap Warns
EURUSD remains at the front foot in early Thursday’s trading and holding under new three-week high (Wednesday’s spike at 1.0816). Bulls probe again through cracked daily Kijun-sen (1.0791) and look for retest of daily cloud top (1.0808). Cloud top was dented on...
NZD/USD Continues to Climb Amidst USD Weakness
The NZD/USD pair has extended its upward movement into a third session, reaching 0.6106 amid growing weaknesses in the US dollar. Negative shifts in US economic indicators, particularly June’s disappointing private sector employment data from ADP and uncertain PMI...
US DJIA: UST Yield Curve Un-inversion May Help the Laggard to Catch Up
Yesterday’s lacklustre US ISM services PMI and ADP employment data for June increases the odds of a further US Treasury yield curve un-inversion. A further un-inversion above -0.08% on the US Treasury yield spread between 10-year & 2-year may trigger a bull...
UK PMI construction falls to 52.2, slowing growth amid election uncertainty
UK PMI Construction fell to 52.2 in June, down from 54.7 in May, and below the expected 54.0. S&P Global highlighted the sharpest rise in employment in ten months, while inflationary pressures remained subdued. Andrew Harker, Economics Director at S&P Global...
AUDUSD Challenges Upper Limit of Its Range
AUDUSD attempts to break above sideways structure Oscillators are heavily tilted to the bullish side AUDUSD has been trading sideways for more than a month now, unable to adopt a clear directional impetus. However, in the last two sessions, the bulls have been testing...
FX option expiries for 4 July 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for NZD/USD at the 0.6130 level. It isn't one that holds any technical significance but could play a role in keeping a lid on price action amid holiday-thin trading today. The overnight...
Dollar Down on Fed Cut Bets, Eyes on Swiss CPI
Dollar faced significant selloff overnight as market participants ramped up bets on a September rate cut by Fed. This shift in sentiment propelled S&P 500 and NASDAQ to record highs too. However, the greenback managed to stabilize in Asian session as the forex...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2638; (P) 1.2663; (R1) 1.2710; More… GBP/USD’s rebound from 1.2612 resumes today and the break of 1.2705 resistance suggests that pull back from 1.2859 has completed. More importantly, rise from 1.2298 is not over. Intraday bias is back on the...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0721; (P) 1.0735; (R1) 1.0760; More…. EUR/USD’s rebound from 1.0665 resumed by breaking 1.0775 minor resistance today. Current development suggests that pull back from 1.0915 has completed. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.0915 resistance...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9026; (P) 0.9038; (R1) 0.9052; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF is turned neutral first with current retreat. Further rise is mildly in favor as long as 0.8956 support holds. Above 0.9049 will affirm the case that corrective fall from 0.9223 has...
US ISM services falls sharply to 48.8, lowest in four years
US ISM Services PMI fell sharply from 53.8 to 48.8 in June, well below expectation of 52.5. That’s also the worst reading in four years. Looking at some details, business activity/production fell sharply from 61.2 to 49.6. New orders fell from 54.1 to 47.3. Employment...
Dollar Index Outlook: Dollar Extends Weakness after Downbeat ADP Data
The dollar index fell to one week low on Thursday, extending weakness into second consecutive day, after being pressured by dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell, while weaker than expected ADP private sector payrolls report further soured the sentiment. Fresh...
ISM Shows Services Sector Shrinks in June
The ISM Services index tumbled to 48.8 in June from 53.8 in May, well short of the 52.7 consensus expectation. Only eight of 18 industries reported growth for the month – down from 13 in May. The business activity sub-index and new orders signaled shrinking activity,...
Investors Await NFP to Validate Their Fed Rate Cut Bets
Investors expect two rate cuts, even though Fed signals one Recent data corroborates investors’ take Nonfarm payrolls waited for more confirmation The report comes out on Friday, at 12:30 GMT Fed appears hawkish, but data paint a different picture At its latest...
Weak Data Hammers USD – Action Forex
The US private sector created 150K jobs in June, according to fresh ADP estimates. This is slightly weaker than expected and the lowest growth since January. Once again, the leisure sector (+63K) led the growth. Construction stands out, with net job growth of 27K for...
Could Post-UK Elections Market Moves Resemble 1997 and 2010?
Thursday’s UK elections expected to bring political change Similar developments in both 1997 and 2010 weighed on the pound History points to a significant easing in pound volatility across the board Recent FTSE 100 performance matches the 2015 pre-election moves...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets European markets today enjoyed some kind of a risk-on catch up move. A record close of the US S&P 500 above the 5500 mark yesterday apparently also inspired European investors (Eurostoxx 50 +1.3%). On French/intra-EMU bond markets, the risk premia also...
AUD/USD Daily Report – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6644; (P) 0.6657; (R1) 0.6681; More... AUD/USD’s rally from 0.6361 finally resumed by breaking through 0.6713 resistance and intraday bias is back on the upside. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% projection of 0.6361 to 0.6713 from 0.6619 at...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.22; (P) 161.52; (R1) 161.76; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Current up trend should target 61.8% projection of 146.47 to 160.20 from 154.53 at 163.01. On the downside, below 160.95 minor support will turn...
Dollar Weakens Against European Majors Ahead of Key Economic and Political Events
Dollar weakens notably against European majors in early US session, partially due to worse-than-expected ADP private job data. However, the primary reason seems to be traders becoming cautious ahead of several key events this week, including UK general elections, US...
US jobless claims rises to 238k vs exp 235k
US initial jobless claims rose 4k to 238k in the week ending June 29, slightly above expectation of 235k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 2k to 239k. Continuing claims rose 26k to 1858k in the week ending June 22, highest since November 27, 2021....
AUD/USD Shrugs as Australian Retail Sales Jump
The Australian dollar is drifting on Wednesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6674 in the European session, up 0.11% on the day. Australian retail sales climb 0.6% Australian consumers have been counting their pennies and reducing discretionary spending. Consumers are...
Gold Retains Positive Attitude – Action Forex
Gold picks up steam towards a key resistance region ahead of US Independence day Short-term bias is positive, but an extension above 2,352 is necessary ISM services PMI, ADP employment, FOMC meeting minutes on the agenda Gold bulls returned with stronger positive...
UK PMI services finalized at 52.1, growth slows amid election uncertainty
UK PMI Services index was finalized at 52.1 in June, down from May’s 52.9, marking the slowest growth rate since November of last year. PMI Composite also fell to 52.3, from the previous month’s 53.0, a six-month low. Joe Hayes, Principal Economist at S&P Global...
Crypto Stays Under Pressure – Action Forex
Market picture The pressure on the crypto has been more sustained than on the stocks. Over the past 24 hours, the total crypto cap has fallen by 2.6%, with most of the downward momentum starting in the US session. The stock market, on the other hand, was supported by...
Eurozone PPI falls -0.2% mom, -4.2% yoy in May
Eurozone PPI fell -0.2% mom, -4.2% yoy in May, versus expectation of 0.0% mom, -4.1% yoy. For the month, industrial producer prices increased by 0.1% for intermediate goods, 0.1% for capital goods, and 0.1% for non-durable consumer goods. Prices decreased by -1.1% for...
AUD/USD Sees Uptick Amidst Mixed Sentiment
AUD/USD has climbed to 0.6676 yet remains in a “sideways” pattern, indicating a lack of clear directional momentum in the market. The Australian dollar’s appreciation is linked to a softening in the US dollar’s stance, influenced by remarks from Federal Reserve Chair...
XAU/USD outlook: Gold Price Rises Ahead of Key Economic Data But Still Holding Within Broader Range
Gold price rose during early trading on Wednesday, after being stuck within a narrow congestion in past three days. Fresh strength hit the highest in almost two weeks, though the wider picture shows the price moving within larger range ($2368/$2286) for the past...
Gold Price Prospects for H2
As shown by the daily XAU/USD chart: → Since November 2022, the price has been moving in an upward channel, marked in orange; → Since the start of 2024, the price has risen by approximately 12.5%. What are the gold price forecasts for the end of 2024? According to...
FX option expiries for 3 July 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD and they are layered between 1.0700 through to 1.0800, with another large one sandwiching that at 1.0750. As such, price action is likely to keep more muted once again...
Yen Falls Again: How Much Lower Could It Go?
Yen’s renewed selloff captured some attention in the otherwise subdued Asian session today. With no new comments from Japanese authorities, market participants are left to speculate on when and where the next intervention might occur. A pivotal moment on the horizon...
UK 100 Index Experiences Pre-election Decline
The UK 100 stock index (cash) continues to suffer for the sixth consecutive trading day, extending its downleg aggressively to the critical support zone of 8,110 on Tuesday ahead of the election day on July 4.The index could not mark a new higher high above the key...
Australian Dollar Eyes Retail Sales
The Australian dollar has posted slight losses on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6649 in the European session, down 0.15% on the day. Australian retail sales expected to improve Australian consumers have been in frugal mood and have reduced their discretionary...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2622; (P) 1.2661; (R1) 1.2690; More… GBP/USD recovered ahead of 1.2612 support as range trading continues. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, firm break of 1.2705 resistance will argue that pull back from 1.2859 has...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0715; (P) 1.0745; (R1) 1.0771; More…. Outlook in EUR/USD is unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, firm break of 55 D EMA will argue that pull back from 1.0915 has completed. Further rise should be seen back to 1.0915...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8986; (P) 0.9016; (R1) 0.9057; More… No change in USD/CHF’s outlook and intraday bias remains on the upside. Fall from 0.9223 might have completed as a three-wave corrective move to 0.8825. Sustained trading above the near term falling channel...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.90; (P) 161.31; (R1) 161.89; More… No change in USD/JPY’s outlook and intraday bias stays on the upside. Current up trend should target 61.8% projection of 146.47 to 160.20 from 154.53 at 163.01. On the downside, below 160.25 minor support will...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets The pace of Eurozone inflation remained steady at 0.2% M/M in June. The outcome was in line with consensus as could be expected following earlier national prints. The Y/Y-figure slowed from 2.8% to 2.5%. Core inflation rose somewhat faster (0.3% M/M), but this...
WTI Oil Outlook: Price Rises Above $84 for the First Time in Over Two Months
WTI oil price rose to nine-week high on Tuesday, in extension of strong Monday’s strong rally (up almost 2.5% for the day). Increased demand due to summer driving season and persisting supply fears on heated geopolitical situation inflate oil price, which rose above...
Eurozone: Inflation Deceleration Stalled – Action Forex
According to the Eurostat Flash estimate, the euro area CPI stood at 2.5% y/y, hovering between 2.4% and 2.6% for the past five months. There has been no apparent slowing since November when the rate first touched 2.4%. Core CPI maintained a 2.9% y/y in May and June...
XTIUSD: Strengthened and Reaching Supply Zone
Bearish Scenario: Sell below 83.63 (if a PAR* forms) with TP1: 83.00, 82.31, 82.11, and 81.70 in extension with an S.L. above 84.00 or at least 1% of account capital. Bullish Scenario after a Pullback to Demand Zone: Wait for a decline towards 82.00 and the formation...
Fed’s Powell: We’re getting back on disinflation path
At the ECB forum, Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted the “quite a big of progress” made in reducing inflation toward 2% target. He also acknowledged the recent inflation readings, stating, “The last reading and the one before it, to a lesser extent, suggest that we...
GBPCAD Uptrend Intact After Latest Correction
GBPCAD bounces off uptrend line But strength of rebound is in question 20-day SMA is nearest challenge for the bulls GBPCAD has rebounded back above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) after a 2% correction in June took the price below it towards the upper...
Dollar Rises on Other Currencies’ Problems
The US dollar has been settling near two-month highs since late last week, but this is a pick of the best among the worst. Expectations for the Fed’s key year-end rate have changed little over the past roughly three weeks. Still, the dollar’s main competitors have...
Dollar Struggles to Keep Momentum in Indecisive Markets
In the forex market, clear weakness of Yen, Swiss Franc, and Kiwi contrasts with a broader sense of indecision elsewhere. Dollar’s rally attempt quickly lost momentum as it struggled to break through near-term resistance levels against both the Euro and Sterling....
Stocks Held Back Crypto Gains
Market picture The crypto market retreated by 0.6% in 24 hours to a total cap of $2.31 trillion. The cautious mood can be attributed to a downward move in US and European stock markets and the momentum of a stronger dollar. However, the dynamics of coins are not...
EUR/USD: Euro Bulls Should Not be Complacent after French Election
Sovereign credit risk remains elevated in France despite yesterday’s rallies seen in the EUR/USD, CAC 40 & DAX ex-post first round of the French legislative election. Speculative net capital outflows & bearish sentiment in CAC 40 & DAX may trigger a...
Fed’s Goolsbee suggests rate cuts if inflation declines further
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee has suggested that Fed should consider cutting interest rates if inflation continues its downward trajectory towards the 2% target. He emphasized the importance of adjusting monetary policy to align with changing inflation...
EURJPY Sails in Uncharted Waters
EURJPY advances above 32-year high Fears of a Japanese intervention increase Oscillators point to overbought conditions EURJPY has been in an uptrend since the beginning of the year, storming to consecutive multi-year highs. Despite a strong pullback following a...
EUR/USD Struggles to Maintain Gains Amid Mixed Economic Signals
The EUR/USD pair experienced a noticeable uptick yesterday, but failed to sustain its peak, settling at 1.0732 today. Early gains were buoyed by the initial outcomes from France’s parliamentary elections, which did not reflect the worst-case scenario, sparking a...
Silver Price Analysis: Awaiting Powell’s Comments
Today, at 16:30 GMT+3, the Federal Reserve Chairman is scheduled to speak. Market participants are looking for more clarity on the Fed’s plans regarding interest rate cuts following the release of inflation data last Friday. According to Trading Economics, Fed...
Eurozone CPI slowed to 2.5% in Jun, but core unchanged at 2.9%
Eurozone CPI slowed from 2.6% yoy to 2.5% yoy in June, matched expectations. CPI core (ex-energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) was unchanged at 2.9% yoy, above expectation of 2.8% yoy. Looking at the main components, services is expected to have the highest annual...
Pound and Euro Test Key Support Levels: Is a Breakout Possible?
European currencies are showing surprising resilience. Despite the general strengthening of the dollar and strong macroeconomic data from the US, EUR/USD and GBP/USD continue to trade above strategically important levels: EUR/USD has been testing 1.0660 for over three...
FX option expiries for 2 July 10am New York cut
There aren't any major expiries to take note of for today. However, just be wary that there are some big ones layered for EUR/USD especially between 1.0700 to 1.0800 during the week. There will also be ones for Friday as outlined here. That is likely to lock price...
Dollar Rallies as Treasury Yields Surge With Trump’s Election Prospects
Dollar surged across the board overnight and stayed firm in Asian session, fueled by the strong rally in benchmark US Treasury yields. This rally is partly attributed to rising expectations of a Donald Trump victory in the upcoming presidential election. Analysts...
Euro Rises Despite France’s Vote for the Right
The euro has started the week with strong gains. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0756 in the European session, up 0.41% on the day at the time of writing. The euro is at its highest level since June 14. Macron takes a drubbing in round one France went to the polls on Sunday,...
GBP/JPY Outlook: Hits New Multi-Year High
GBPJPY remains in an unobstructed uptrend and hit new multi-year high (the highest since 2008) in early Monday. The cross extends steep ascend into eleventh straight day, after registering the sixth consecutive monthly gain in June. Yen weakened further against all...
US ISM manufacturing falls to 48.5, prices down to 52.1
US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell from 48.7 to 48.5 in June, missed expectation of 49.3. That’s the third month of contraction reading. Looking at some details, new orders rose from 45.4 to 49.3. Production fell from 50.2 to 48.5. Employment fell from 51.1. to 49.3....
USD/JPY Outlook: Hits New Multi-Decade High Despite Persisting Intervention Threats
USDJPY rose further on Monday, signaling continuation after bulls paused for consolidation on Thu/Fri. Although traders remain cautious over looming intervention, after Japanese authorities reiterated their stance of intervening again to support weakening yen, bulls...
Gold Price Update: XAU/USD Rises as Search for Catalyst Rumbles On
Gold rises as a weaker US Dollar and uncertainty around monetary policy continues. ISM data later today before all attention turns to US jobs data later in the week. Trendline break and price action hint at at a potential rise toward the $2370 resistance handle....
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2623; (P) 1.2642; (R1) 1.2665; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral at this point. On the upside, firm break of 1.2702 resistance will argue that pull back from 1.2859 has completed, and bring retest of this high instead. Nevertheless,...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8971; (P) 0.8990; (R1) 0.9007; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside at this point, for channel resistance (now at 0.9034). Fall from 0.9223 might have completed as a three-wave corrective move to 0.8825. Firm break of channel...
USD/JPY Rises Up After GDP Downgrade
The Japanese yen has dropped below the 161 line on Monday. The yen is trading at 161.39 early in the North American session, down 0.35% on the day. Japan’s GDP revised sharply lower Japan revised its first-quarter GDP report to -2.9%, y/y, sharply lower than the...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National scored broadly as expected in the first round of French parliamentary elections. They won the ballot with around 33% of the vote, ahead of the left front (28%) and Macron’s alliance (21%). In 485 out of 577 districts, the...
June ISM: Activity Still Soft, but Prices Cooling
Summary Manufacturing activity remained in contraction territory in June, but in a sign of moderating inflation pressure, the prices paid component fell 4.9 points. New orders rose more than any other component but remains in contraction. Prices Cool The ISM...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.36; (P) 160.82; (R1) 161.37; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY is back on the upside with break of 161.27 temporary top. Current up trend should target 61.8% projection of 146.47 to 160.20 from 154.53 at 163.01. On the downside, below 160.25 minor...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0692; (P) 1.0708; (R1) 1.0731; More…. EUR/USD edged higher to 1.0775 earlier today but failed to break through 55 D EMA (now at 1.0773) and retreated. Intraday bias stays neutral first. On the upside, firm break of 55 D EMA will argue that pull...
Euro Rebound Stalls as Sterling and Dollar Mount a Comeback
Euro has seen a notable rebound as the new week commenced, though the lack of follow-through buying momentum is evident. The initial results from French parliamentary elections were not as dire as investors had feared. The far-right National Rally’s victory was not as...
EUR/USD Outlook: Post-French Election Rally So Far Capped by Thickening Daily Cloud
EURUSD opened with gap-higher and rose to three-week high in early European trading on Monday, lifted by results of the first round French parliamentary election. Rally was capped by the base of thickening daily cloud, following last week’s cloud twist, with...
Instrument of the Week (July 1—5): USDCHF Review!
The USDCHF pair, commonly called the “Swissie,” represents the exchange rate between the US Dollar and the Swiss Franc, providing insights into the economic dynamics between the United States and Switzerland. The US Dollar is influenced by the broader economic trends...
EURUSD Gaps Higher Over Potential French Hung Parliament
EURUSD surges after French far-right party wins first race with weaker majority Bullish bias expected to come above 1.0788; sellers could take control below 1.0670 EURUSD opened with a positive gap on Monday after Le Pen’s far right party dominated the first round of...
Japanese Yen Faces Further Depreciation Amid Rate Differentials
The USD/JPY pair continues to escalate, currently positioned at 160.88, nearing the 37-year peak of 161.27 achieved last Friday. Early today, the yen temporarily strengthened following Japan’s Q2 Tankan survey results, which indicated a slight improvement in...
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9607; (P) 0.9624; (R1) 0.9644; More…. Immediate focus is now on 0.9683 as EUR/CHF extended the rebound from 0.9476. Decisive break there will argue that Fall from 0.9928 has completed, probably as a correction. Intraday bias will be back on the...
Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 45.8, recovery pushed to late summer
Eurozone manufacturing PMI for June was finalized at 45.8, down from May’s 47.3, signaling continued contraction in the manufacturing sector. This decline indicates ongoing challenges for manufacturers, with only Italy showing some improvement among the member...
UK’s PMI manufacturing finalized at 50.9, renewed cost pressures despite growth
UK’s PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 50.9 in June, slightly down from May’s 22-month high of 51.2. This marks a continued period of growth for the sector, but with some emerging concerns. Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, commented, “The...
EUR/USD Rate Rises After First Round of Voting in France
According to Reuters, exit polls show that Marine Le Pen’s far-right party, the National Rally (RN), won the first round of parliamentary elections in France on Sunday. The financial market reacted to this with a rise in the euro’s exchange rate against other...
Gold Battles with Descending Trendline
Gold trades back and forth in the past few sessions Price fails to claim 50-day SMA and restrictive trendline Momentum indicators are neutral-to-bullish Gold has been under pressure lately following its break below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). Although the...
FX option expiries for 1 July 10am New York cut
There is just one on the board to take note of, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0700 level. The size of the expiry is a big one so that could keep a floor under the pair in terms of price action for the session ahead.There won't be much on the...
Euro Rebounds on French Election Relief; Market Eyes Central Bank Minutes and Key Data
Euro is staging a solid rebound today, with investors feeling somewhat reassured by the preliminary results of French parliamentary elections. While the far-right National Rally made significant gains with approximately 34% of votes in the first round, this is...
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
While EUR/CHF’s recovery from 0.9476 extended higher last week, outlook stays bearish with 0.9683 resistance intact. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, below 0.9560 minor support will suggest that the rebound has completed and bring retest...
EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/AUD edged lower to 1.5996 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, and outlook stays bearish as long as 1.6211 support turned resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.5996 will target 100% projection of 1.6679 to...
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/GBP’s recovery from 0.8396 continued last week but upside remains capped below by 0.8482 support turned resistance. Initial bias stays neutral this week and outlook remains bearish bearish. On the downside, below 0.8430 support will turn bias back to the downside...
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/JPY’s up trend continued last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays on the upside this week. Next target is 100% projection of 191.34 to 200.72 from 197.18 at 206.56 next. On the downside, below 202.41 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and...
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CAD rebounded after dipping to 1.3626, but failed to extend gain after hitting 1.3733. Overall, consolidation pattern from 1.3845 is extending. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. While deeper fall could be seen, downside should be contained by 1.3589...
AUD/USD Weekly Report – Action Forex
AUD/USD extended consolidation from 0.6713 last week and outlook remains unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Further rally is in favor with 0.6578 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.6361 to 0.6713 at 0.6579) intact. On the upside, firm break of...
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CHF’s stronger than expected rebound argues that fall from 0.9223 might have completed as a three-wave corrective move to 0.8825. Initial bias is mildly on the upside for channel resistance (now at 0.9037). Firm break there will target 0.9157 resistance next. On...
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/JPY’s break of 160.20 resistance last week confirmed long term up trend resumption. But as a temporary top was formed at 161.27, initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Downside should be contained by 158.71 support to bring another rally. Break...
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/USD’s consolidation form 1.0667 continued last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and further fall is expected with 1.0760 resistance intact. Decline from 1.0915 is seen as another leg in the larger corrective pattern. Firm...
Yen Hits Multi-Decade Lows, Euro Bounces Back, Dollar Remains Indecisive
Yen remained in the spotlight last week, dominating headlines even as some significant global inflation data also moved markets. The Japanese currency continued its downtrend, reaching multi-decade lows. Despite the prolonged decline, Japanese authorities refrained...
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/USD’s fall from 1.2859 tied to continued last week but failed to sustain below 1.2633 resistance turned support. Still, further decline is expected as long as 1.2702 resistance holds. Sustained trading below 1.2633 resistance turned support will argue that whole...
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/JPY’s break of 171.58 resistance last week confirmed up trend resumption. Initial bias stays on the upside this week. Next target is 100% projection of 164.01 to 170.87 from 167.52 at 174.38. On the downside, below 171.37 minor support will turn intraday bias...
Labour Markets in Canada and the U.S. to Show Key Signs of Weakness
Central banks in Canada and the United States will be closely watching labour market data on Friday after May inflation numbers sent some mixed signals, broadly surprising to the upside in Canada and the downside in the U.S. The tick-up in Canadian inflation in May...
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Yen Reaches Its Weakest Level Against the Greenback since 1986
Summary United States: It May Be Hot Outside, but Inflation Is Finally Cooling According to the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge, core inflation cooled to its softest pace in more than three years in May against a backdrop of measured consumer spending and...
The Weekly Bottom Line: Services Spending and Prices Starting to Settle
U.S. Highlights Headline PCE inflation came in flat for the month of May and core PCE inflation eased. Personal income posted a strong gain last month, while spending growth was more moderate, leading to an uptick in the savings rate. The heat in the economy still...
Markets Weekly Outlook: French, UK Elections in Focus Followed by NFP Data
Despite a decline in core PCE numbers, hawkish comments from Fed policymakers cast doubt on a September rate cut. The first half of 2024 saw a widening gap between growth and value stocks, with the former outperforming the S&P 500. Concerns over central bank...
July seasonals: The S&P 500 has rallied in July for eight straight years
When I look at the July seasonals, there isn't much in the FX market. The patterns are minor and the moves small as the summer complacency sets in.One thing stands out though: US equities.The S&P 500 has climbed for eight straight years in July with an average...
Summary 7/1 – 7/5
Monday, Jul 1, 2024 Tuesday, Jul 2, 2024 Wednesday, Jul 3, 2024 Thursday, Jul 4, 2024 Friday, Jul 5, 2024 The post Summary 7/1 – 7/5 appeared first on Action Forex.
US PCE core inflation slows to 2.6% as expected in May
In May, US PCE price index was flat mom, matched expectations. PCE core price index (excluding food and energy) rose 0.1% mom. Both matched expectations. Prices for goods fell -0.4% mom while prices for services rose 0.2% mom. Food prices rose 0.1% mom while energy...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.43; (P) 160.63; (R1) 160.98; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral again with current retreat. Some consolidations could be seen first and deeper pullback cannot be ruled out. But near term outlook will remain bullish as long as...
Canada’s Economy Rebounded in April, Modest Growth Expected in May
The Canadian economy bounced back in April, up 0.3% month-on-month (m/m). This print landed in line with Statistics Canada’s advanced guidance and market expectations. The flash estimate for May points to a slight advance of 0.1% m/m. April’s reading was broad-based,...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8968; (P) 0.8979; (R1) 0.9000; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains mildly on the upside at this point. Fall from 0.9223 could have completed a three-wave corrective move to 0.8825. Intraday bias is back on the upside for channel resistance (now...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2612; (P) 1.2641; (R1) 1.2670; More… Further decline is still expected in GBP/USD with 1.2702 resistance intact. Sustained trading below 1.2633 resistance turned support will argue that whole rise from 1.2298 has completed, and target 1.2445 and...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0678; (P) 1.0703; (R1) 1.0728; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral as sideway trading continues. Outlook stays bearish with 1.0760 resistance intact. Decline from 1.0915 is seen as another leg in the larger corrective pattern. Firm break...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Today’s avalanche of inflation numbers had little surprises in store. Euro area member states France (0.1% m/m, 2.6% y/y) and Spain (0.3% m/m, 3.5% y/y) reported theirs ahead of the June European figure next Tuesday. Both printed bang in line with...
Week Ahead – French and UK Elections on the Horizon, US Jobs Report Eyed Too
France and UK go to the polls; will elections bring chaos or order? US payrolls report for June awaited as Fed hawks don’t budge Eurozone CPI, Fed minutes and ECB forum also on investors’ radar Macron’s gamble set to backfire Political risks came back to haunt the...
Eurozone CPI Report: Further Noise or a Proper Signal to Cut Rates Again?
ECB members disagree about the rates outlook Key data releases including the June CPI figures A soft inflation report is unlikely to result in a dovish July ECB meeting Political risks keep the euro under pressure The ECB hawks are clearly upset It has been three...
What Can We Expect from ISM Business PMIs Next Week?
ISM manufacturing PMI to tick higher; services PMI to lose some pace Business outlook could stay unchanged; rate cut forecasts will remain inflation-driven EURUSD stays neutral after core PCE inflation; needs a strong rebound above 1.0885 What happened previously?...
Weekly Focus – A Summer Full of Data and Central Bank Meetings
This week has been quiet in terms of global macro data and events. In this final Weekly Focus before the summer break, we will thus mainly highlight key data and events to watch until the Weekly Focus returns on Friday, 16 August. This week’s data releases included...
US: Consumer Income and Spending Grow While Inflation Cools in May
Personal income grew 0.5% month-on-month (m/m) in May, up from April’s 0.3% gain, and ahead of market expectations (0.4%). Accounting for inflation and taxes, real personal disposable was also up 0.5% m/m in May, relative to a flat reading in April (revised up from a...
Dollar Dips Slightly on PCE Core, But Overall Market Reactions Subdued
Dollar dips slightly in early US session, following the release of May’s PCE core inflation data. This Fed’s preferred measure of inflation indicated a continued, though modest, progress in disinflation. However, the financial market’s response to the report was...
Canada’s GDP grows 0.3% mom in Apr, matches expectations
Canada’s GDP grew 0.3% mom in April, matched expectations. Both goods-producing (+0.3%) and services-producing (+0.3%) industries contributed to the growth with 15 of 20 sectors increasing in the month. Advance information indicates that real GDP rose 0.1% mom in May....
EUR/USD Continues to Struggle Amid US Inflation Concerns
EUR/USD is on a downward trajectory on Friday, hovering around 1.0686 after a short-lived pause. The dollar experienced a temporary dip due to mixed American economic indicators and market anticipation ahead of the critical Core PCE inflation report, a significant...
ECB’s Villeroy: Confidence grows in inflation forecasts as data surprises diminish
ECB Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau expressed increased confidence in the inflation forecast today, noting that the frequency of data surprises has diminished. “As data surprises are now smaller and revisions to the current assessment more minor...
USD/JPY Flat, Tokyo Core CPI Higher Than Expected
Japanese yen pushes above 161 The Japanese yen is unchanged on Friday, but has managed to set a new low against the US dollar. The yen is trading at 160.72 in the European session and fell as low as 161.28 earlier, its lowest level since 1986. Tokyo Core CPI...
GBP/USD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2612; (P) 1.2641; (R1) 1.2670; More… No change in GBP/USD’s outlook and further decline is expected with 1.2702 resistance intact. Sustained trading below 1.2633 resistance turned support will argue that whole rise from 1.2298 has completed, and...
EUR/USD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0658; (P) 1.0688; (R1) 1.0710; More…. Range trading continues in EUR/USD and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook stays bearish with 1.0760 resistance intact. Decline from 1.0915 is seen as another leg in the larger corrective pattern. Firm...
Market Analysis: GBP/USD Turns Red While USD/CAD Rallies
GBP/USD declined below the 1.2670 support zone. USD/CAD is rising and might aim for more gains above the 1.3735 resistance. Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today The British Pound started a fresh decline from the 1.2700 resistance zone. There is a...
CAD: GDP Data Incoming – Action Forex
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) saw volatile movement on Thursday due to mixed US economic data and a lack of domestic updates. With Canada absent from the economic calendar until Friday’s GDP report, the CAD was influenced by US figures. Markets are now focused on the...
GBPJPY Unlocks New 16-Year High
GBPJPY posts several green days RSI and stochastics are overstretched GBPJPY is recording the tenth consecutive green day, posting a fresh 16-year high of 203.57. The market is looking positive, but the technical oscillators are suggesting overstretched momentum. The...
FX option expiries for 28 June 10am New York cut
There are a couple of large ones to take note of, as highlighted in bold.And they are all for EUR/USD, layered between 1.0650 through to 1.0725. That is likely to help lock price action in European trading, before the expiries roll off later in the day. If anything,...
Dollar Gains Traction Ahead of Key Inflation Data, Yen Struggles Despite Stronger Tokyo CPI
Dollar is showing renewed strength in Asian session, particularly against commodity currencies. Market reactions to the televised debate between US President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have been muted, with traders shifting their focus to upcoming...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2594; (P) 1.2644; (R1) 1.2672; More… Further decline is expected in GBP/USD as long as 1.2702 resistance holds. Sustained trading below 1.2633 resistance turned support will argue that whole rise from 1.2298 has completed, and target 1.2445 and...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8950; (P) 0.8967; (R1) 0.8990; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral at this point. Further decline is still expected with 0.8992 resistance intact. Below 0.8912 minor support will bring retest of 0.8825 low. Firm break there will resume...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.00; (P) 160.43; (R1) 161.26; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside. Sustained trading above 100% projection of 151.86 to 157.70 from 154.53 at 160.37 will pave the way to 161.8% projection at 163.97. On the downside, below 159.18...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets No follow-through price action on yesterday’s rise in long-term yields for now. We at least partially attributed the move to investors’ pondering issues of long-term fiscal sustainability in Europe but also in the US. The Biden-Trump presidential debate later...
USD/JPY Steady as BOJ Watches With Sense of Urgency
Japanese yen remains below 160 USD/JPY is trading at 160.38 early in the North American session, down 0.25% on the day. The Japanese yen has been trading below 160 on Thursday, after dropping as low as 160.87 on Wednesday, its lowest level since December 1986. As the...
US Dollar on Edge: How PCE Data Could Shake Uup the Markets
What is the US PCE data and why is it important? Uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve and US Dollar remains high due to conflicting US data and global inflation concerns. The upcoming PCE data release is highly anticipated as it may influence the Fed’s stance on...
JP 225 Extends Rally to 2-Month High
JP 225 index has been steadily advancing in the short term On Wednesday, price jumped to its highest since April 12 Momentum indicators are heavily skewed to the upside The JP 225 index (cash) had been trading without clear direction since early May, fluctuating...
Gold Rebounds from Near the Lower End of its Range
Gold bulls step in from near key support zone RSI and MACD suggest momentum is turning positive Advances within the current sideways range may be possible A dip below 2,290 could invite the bears back into the game Gold is trading higher today, after hitting support...
Is a China-Taiwan Conflict Likely? Watch the Region’s Stock Market Indexes
The U.S. government in early May sanctioned 300 Chinese entities for supplying machine tools and parts to Russia for its war against Ukraine, while in mid-May Russian president Vladimir Putin made a two-day visit to China. In turn I found myself thinking about how...
Fed’s Bostic sees potential for rate cut in Q4
In an essay, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic anticipates that gradual slowdown in the labor market and overall economic activity will lead to inflation decreasing to the target level of 2% by 2025, or slightly later. Bostic mentioned that instead of maintaining...
Dollar Index: Eases from New Multi-Week Hhigh on US Data, Japan’s Intervention Warning
The dollar index fell on Thursday, following overall slightly better than US data and warning from Japan’s authorities about possible action against sharp fall of yen. The US economy grew by 1.4% in Q1 vs expected 1.3% rise, weekly jobless claims fell below...
Dollar Weakens after Mixed Data, Traders Turn Cautious
Dollar weakens broadly weakening in the early US session following the release of a batch of economic data. Durable goods orders presented a mixed bag. Concurrently, continuing claims for unemployment benefits rose to their highest level in more than two-and-a-half...
US durable goods orders rise 0.1% mom, ex-transport orders down -0.1% mom
US durable goods orders rose 0.1% mom to USD 283.1B in May, above expectation of -0.1% mom. Ex-transport orders fell -0.1% mom to 187.7B, below expectation of 0.1% mom. Ex-defense orders fell -0.2% mom to USD 266.1B. Transportation equipment rose 0.6% mom to USD...
US initial jobless claims falls to 233k, vs exp 230k
US initial jobless claims fell -6k to 233k in the week ending June 22, slightly above expectation of 230k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 3k to 236k. Continuing claims rose 18k to 1839k in the week ending June 15, highest since November 27, 2021....
RBA’s Hauser cautions against policy decisions based on single data point
In an event today, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser emphasized the need for comprehensive analysis before making policy decisions, stating, “it would be a bad mistake to set policy on the basis of one number and we don’t intend to do that.” This comment comes in the...
Yen Under Pressure as USD/JPY Hits New Highs Since 1986
The USD/JPY pair soared to 160.34 on Thursday, reaching levels not seen since 1986, as market participants increasingly anticipate potential interventions from Japanese authorities. Despite repeated verbal assurances, the Japanese government has not taken concrete...
WTI Crude Oil Moves Sideways in Near Term
WTI crude oil fails to rally above 81.90 RSI and MACD remain above mid-levels WTI crude oil has been on the sidelines for the most part of the week as the 81.90 level seems to be a real struggle for the bulls. Technically, the price could gain some ground in the...
USD/JPY Rate Hits Highest Level Since 1986
As shown in the USD/JPY chart, today the rate is around 160.58 yen per US dollar. Bloomberg reports the words of Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki: → Stable dynamics are important for currency rates. → Sharp unilateral movements are highly undesirable. → We...
Buyers Failed to Pick Up on the Crypto Market
Market Picture The crypto market has been under moderate but persistent pressure throughout Wednesday, losing 1.26% over the past 24 hours to $2.24 trillion. Prices of top coins are down, except for Toncoin, which adds 1.6% for the day and 19% for 30 days, and Tron...
Eurozone economic sentiment falls slightly to 95.9, EU ticks down to 96.4
Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator ticked down from 96.1 to 95.9 in June. Employment Expectation Indicator fell from 101.3 to 99.7. Economic Uncertainty Indicator fell from 18.5 to 18.0. Eurozone industry confidence fell from -9.9 to -10.1. Services confidence fell...
European Currencies Face a Crucial Test: What to Expect
The end of June and the beginning of July are packed with significant economic and political events for the pound and the euro. A few weeks ago, Emmanuel Macron dissolved the parliament and announced snap parliamentary elections. He took this step after the far-right...
EURUSD Rises Slightly Up After Battle With 8-Week Low
EURUSD holds in sideways move SMAs create bearish crossovers MACD continues to head south EURUSD tested the previous low of 1.0665 on Wednesday, holding within a narrow range of 1.0665-1.0720. The 20- and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs) posted a bearish crossover...
FX option expiries for 27 June 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD and they are sandwiching the current spot price at 1.0650 and 1.0700. That is likely to help lock price action at the current levels before we get to US trading later....
Yen Recovers as Japan Steps Up Verbal Intervention, But No Sign of Lasting Bottom Yet
Yen is showing broad-based recovery today, although the momentum remains weak, following its decline to the lowest level against Dollar since 1986. Japan has finally stepped up its verbal intervention efforts again, with Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki expressing a...
USD/CHF Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8923; (P) 0.8938; (R1) 0.8964; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. While recovery from 0.8825 might still extend, near term outlook will stay bearish with 0.8992 resistance intact. Below 0.8912 minor support will bring...
Gold: Third Time Lucky for the Bears?
Gold has been under moderate pressure since last Friday, when the price reversed sharply from above $2360. This is an important signal from the bears that they retain control of the market, forming a trend of lower local highs. On Wednesday morning, the price...
XAU/USD: Gold Stands at the Back Foot on Hawkish Comments from Fed
Gold price dipped to one-week low on Wednesday, deflated by the latest hawkish comments from Fed policymakers. The US central bank expects to bring inflation under control by keeping policy rate unchanged for some time, but also reiterated their willingness to...
Amazon shares rise to record high, crossing $2 trillion valuation
Amazon daily chartShares of Amazon are catching a bid today, rising 3.1% to an all time high. The climb above $192 along with 10.406 billion shares outstanding puts the company above a $2 trillion market cap for the first time.That's against earnings guidance of...
Gold Prices Under Pressure as Dollar Index (DXY), US Yields Rise
Gold continues its decline with $2300/oz firmly back in sight. US Dollar index and US 10Y yield continue to rise, US 10Y now at 4.275%. PCE inflation data could be the catalyst needed for gold prices to find some direction. Fundamental Overview Gold prices remain...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 159.33; (P) 159.55; (R1) 159.90; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY is back on the upside as recent rally resumed through 159.92 temporary top after brief consolidations. Decisive break of 100% projection of 151.86 to 157.70 from 154.53 at 160.37 will...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8923; (P) 0.8938; (R1) 0.8964; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral at this point. Near term outlook will stay bearish with 0.8992 resistance intact. Below 0.8912 minor support will bring retest of 0.8825 low. Firm break there will resume...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2666; (P) 1.2685; (R1) 1.2704; More… GBP/USD is staying above 1.2622 temporary low despite today’s decline. Intraday bias stays neutral first. Further fall is expected as long as 1.2739 resistance holds. Break of 1.2622, and sustained trading...
USD/JPY: Probes Again Through 160.00 Barrier and Hits New Multi-Decade Highs
USDJPY hit new multi-decade high above 160 on Wednesday, as bulls regained control after a two-day consolidation. Fresh probe above psychological 160 barrier suggests that bids remain strong despite warning that Japan’s authorities may intervene to support weakening...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Markets are testing the resolve of Japanese officials. USD/JPY broke through the 160-level which triggered FX interventions at the end of April and early March. The pair set a new nearly 40-yr high above 160.50. Verbal warnings by the Japanese (vice-) finance...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0689; (P) 1.0716; (R1) 1.0742; More…. EUR/USD is still bounded in consolidation from 1.0667 and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook stays bearish with 1.0760 resistance intact. Decline from 1.0915 is seen as another leg in the larger corrective...
AUD/USD Surged, Buoyed by RBA Confidence and Inflation Ggrowth
The Australian dollar strengthened notably against the US dollar, with the AUD/USD pair reaching 0.6684. Australia’s May economic indicators from MI remained unchanged at zero compared to the previous value. Meanwhile, Australia’s weighted average consumer price index...
Yen Hits 37-Year Low Against Dollar, Japan to Intervene or Not?
Yen is drawing significant attention again today as it plummeted past the crucial 160 mark against Dollar, and hit its lowest level in over 37 years. Market participants are vigilantly watching for any signs of intervention from Japanese authorities, yet no action has...
ECB’s Panetta: Must manage risks beyond baseline scenarios
Speaking today, ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta noted that the current macroeconomic conditions support “normalization of the monetary stance.” He added that ECB initiated this process recently and, under the “baseline scenario,” intends to continue it...
Will There Be Rebound Development in Bitcoin?
Market picture Crypto market capitalisation added 1.2%, recovering to Monday’s levels of $2.28 trillion. On 25 June, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell into “fear” territory at 30 points, the lowest since September 2023. On 26 June, the index recovered to 46. Both...
GBP/USD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2666; (P) 1.2685; (R1) 1.2704; More… Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment, and further decline is expected in GBP/USD as long as 1.2739 resistance holds. Break of 1.2622, and sustained trading below 1.2633 resistance turned support will...
AUD/JPY: Aussie Outperformance With Hotter AU CPI
Australia’s monthly CPI has increased to 4% from 3.7% in April, a sign of a sticky and elevated consumer inflationary trend. The odds of an RBA interest rate in the near-term horizon have reduced which increased the yield premium of 2-year Australian government bond...
ECB’s Rehn considers two more rate cuts this year as reasonable
In an interview today, ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn indicated that market data suggests the likelihood of two additional rate cuts, bringing the rate to 3.25% by the end of the year. He also noted that the terminal rate for this easing cycle is expected to...
AUD/NZD: Aussie Surges Almost 1% vs Kiwi Dollar After Release of Australia’s Inflation Report
Australian dollar surged 0.9% vs Kiwi dollar in Wednesday’s morning, lifted by fresh hawkish signals that the RBA may opt for a rate hike next month, after Australia’s inflation rose above expectations and hit new multi-month high in May. A full-figure rise broke...
USDJPY Flirts With 160 Level Again
USDJPY trades with weak momentum slightly below critical 160 level Overbought conditions detected; sellers wait below 158.35-159.00 BoJ intervention is possible; US core PCE inflation due on Friday at 12:30 GMT Following a constructive week, USDJPY is now hovering...
EUR/USD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0689; (P) 1.0716; (R1) 1.0742; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and outlook stays bearish with 1.0760 resistance intact. Decline from 1.0915 is seen as another leg in the larger corrective pattern. Break of 1.0667 will target 1.0601...
FX option expiries for 26 June 10am New York cut
There are just two to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.And they are both for EUR/USD, pinned on either side of the spot price at 1.0700 and 1.0750. That is likely to lock price action in the session ahead, with more expiries following that up at 1.0650,...
Strong Inflation Boosts Aussie, Euro Struggle Returns
Australian Dollar surged broadly in Asian session following a much stronger-than-expected monthly CPI report, sparking speculation that RBA might return to rate hikes in August. Comments from a top RBA official also indicated that the central bank is vigilant about...
Bitcoin’s Attractive Drop
Market Picture The cryptocurrency market was falling to a total capitalisation of $2.2 trillion at the end of the day on Monday but managed to add over 2% to the lows, recovering to $2.25 trillion, down 0.5% from the day before. The technical picture in Bitcoin is...
Brent Crude Oil Hits Two-Month High Amid Geopolitical Tensions
Brent crude oil prices surged to $86 per barrel on Tuesday, marking the highest level in two months. This rise was driven by escalating geopolitical risks in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, particularly the ongoing confrontation between Israel and Hamas, which...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0696; (P) 1.0721; (R1) 1.0760; More…. EUR/USD dips notably in early US session but stays in range above 1.0667. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Further fall is expected with 1.0760 resistance intact. Decline from 1.0915 is seen as...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2647; (P) 1.2672; (R1) 1.2712; More… No change in GBP/USD’s outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. Further decline is expected as long as 1.2739 resistance holds. Break of 1.2622, and sustained trading below 1.2633 resistance turned support will...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8919; (P) 0.8932; (R1) 0.8943; More…. No change in USD/CHF’s outlook as consolidation continues above 0.8825. Intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. Near term outlook remains bearish with 0.8992 resistance intact. Break of 0.8825 will resume...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 158.95; (P) 159.43; (R1) 160.11; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Further rise will remain in favor as long as 157.70 resistance turned support holds. Sustained break of 106.20 and 100% projection of 151.86 to 157.70...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets US and EMU (interest rate) markets today are holding tight ranges with trading mostly technical in nature. If anything markets still err to rather dovish bias, with yields on both sides of the Atlantic hold with reach of recent lows. There were no data in EMU....
Canada: Inflation Accelerates in May
Headline CPI inflation edged higher in May to 2.9% year-on-year (y/y), above expectations for a 2.6% y/y print. The acceleration was led by services, which were up 4.6% y/y, as Canadians were paying up for travel tours (+6.9% y/y) and flights (+4.5% y/y). This...
Could Tokyo CPI Make the July BoJ Meeting a Live Pne?
BoJ meeting minutes summary keep the door open to a July rate hike Key data due this week, especially Friday’s Tokyo CPI Retail sales data to show consumer appetite Yen remains under pressure as officials avoid verbal intervention The BoJ is still willing to hike...
US consumer confidence falls to 100.4, within the same narrow range
US Conference Board Consumer Confidence fell from 101.3 to 100.4 in June, slightly above expectation of 100.2. Present Situation Index rose from 140.8 to 141.5. Expectation Index fell from 74.9 to 73.0. The Expectations Index has been below 80 (the threshold which...
Dollar Index: Bullish Bias Above Daily Cloud, US Inflation Data in Focus
The dollar index regained traction on Tuesday and ticked higher after dropping 0.4% on Monday. Pullback was contained by daily cloud top and marked a light correction of a larger uptrend, which remains intact. Technical picture on daily chart remains bullish, as MA’s...
Canadian Dollar Surges on Unexpected Inflation Rebound in May
Canadian Dollar jumps following after data showing that Canadian inflation unexpectedly accelerated in May. More importantly, the resurgence in price pressures was largely driven by significant increase in services inflation. The data aligns with BoC Governor Tiff...
Canada’s CPI accelerates to 2.9% yoy, driven by service sector price hikes
Canada’s CPI recorded a notable increase in May, climbing to 2.9% yoy from 2.7% yoy the previous month, surpassing the anticipated rate of 2.6%. This acceleration in headline CPI was primarily fueled by a significant uptick in service prices, which rose by 4.6% yoy in...
Fed’s Bowman: Inflation to remain elevated, rate hold necessary
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, in a speech today, said her baseline outlook that US inflation will return to the 2% target, provided federal funds rate remains at its current level of 5.25-5.50% “for some time.” She emphasized that Fed is “still not yet at the point”...
Canadian Dollar Eyes Inflation Release
The Canadian dollar is showing limited movement on Tuesday. USD/CAD is trading at 1.3675 in the European session, up 0.12% on the day at the time of writing. We could see some volatility in the North American session, when Canada releases the May CPI report. In the...
USD/JPY: Bulls Gesitate on Approach to 160.00 Barrier, Potential Intervention Trigger
USDJPY edges lower after hitting levels just ticks away from 160 barrier, which many see as a trigger for intervention, as Japan’s authorities intervened at the end of April when the pair cracked 160 barrier. Monday’s trading was closed in red for the first time in...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 201.51; (P) 202.11; (R1) 203.09; More… Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside for 61.8% projection of 191.34 to 200.72 from 197.18 at 202.97. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 206.56 next. on the downside, below 200.46...
Dollar Declines: How Deep Could the Correction Be?
By the end of last week, the American currency traded rather mixed: The USD/JPY currency pair strengthened by more than 200 pips and almost tested the significant resistance level at 160.00. The USD/CAD pair failed to break out of the medium-term flat corridor of...
Japanese Yen Technical Outlook: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY
FX intervention chatter returns, but is it enough for the ailing JPY? USD/JPY at psychological 160.00 handle. EUR/JPY prints morningstar candlestick pattern, hinting at the potential for further upside. Fundamental Overview The Japanese Yen continues to tread water...
CADJPY Aims for April’s Multi-Year High
CADJPY surpasses key resistance levels, but enters overbought zone Next resistance at 117.93; support at 115.80-116.00 Canadian CPI inflation due for release at 12:30 GMT CADJPY is in the third consecutive week of gains, having experienced an impressive rally to...
Gold Reverses Back Below 50-day SMA
Gold retreats after unsuccessful break above 50-day SMA The price extends its structure of lower highs Momentum indicators turn bearish Gold had been in a steady recovery from its recent one-month low, which led to the price closing above its 50-day simple moving...
Canadian CPI Takes Center Stage; Yen Stabilizes in Quiet Trading
Trading in the Asian session has been quiet today and is expected to remain so during the European session, given the empty economic calendar. However, Yen continues to be a significant focus among market participants. Discussions are emerging about the possibility of...
FX option expiries for 25 June 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0700 level. The expiries should keep a floor on price action in the session ahead, if anything else. But the spot price is slightly far away with a more muted mood...
American Apathy Supports Oil – Action Forex
The price of crude Oil rose steadily in the previous fortnight and is starting the new week with a positive trend. This rise emphasises the importance of the 200-week moving average, below which the price has not fallen for a long time for more than three years. The...
Yen Steadies After Dreadful Week
The Japanese yen has posted gains on Monday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 159.26, down 0.10%. The yen hasn’t had a winning daily session since June 19th and declined 1.5% last week. On the data front, Japan releases the Services Producer Price Index....
USD/JPY: Verbal Intervention Intensified But Real Intervention May Have to Wait
The USD/JPY has traded higher in the past 7 sessions and printed an intraday high of 159.85 last Friday, 21 June which coincided with its 34-year high of 160.23 printed on 26 April. Last week’s persistent JPY weakness prompted Japan’s Ministry of Finance Vice...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 159.02; (P) 159.44; (R1) 160.22; More… Despite the deep but brief retreat, intraday bias in USD/JPY stays mildly on the upside with 158.65 minor support intact. Current rally should target 160.20 high, or possibly to 100% projection of 151.86 to...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8917; (P) 0.8931; (R1) 0.8958; More…. USD/CHF is extending the consolidation above 0.8825 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Still, near term outlook remains bearish with 0.8992 resistance intact. Break of 0.8825 will resume the fall from...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2619; (P) 1.2646; (R1) 1.2671; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral first with current recovery. Further decline is expected as long as 1.2739 resistance holds. Break of 1.2622, and sustained trading below 1.2633 resistance turned...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0669; (P) 1.0695; (R1) 1.0719; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as range trading continues above 1.0667. Further fall is expected with 1.0760 resistance intact. Decline from 1.0915 is seen as another leg in the larger corrective...
USD Weekly Analysis: USDX and EURUSD
Fundamental Analysis This week we will have a few high-impact data releases from the economic calendar. Still, the focus will be on several speeches by Fed officials, with five out of eight appearances scheduled featuring hawkish members. This will drive a strong...
Australian Dollar Calm Ahead of Consumer Confidence
The Australian dollar has started the week quietly. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6648 early in the North American session, up 0.11% on the day. Australia releases Westpac Consumer Sentiment early on Tuesday. Consumer confidence has been weak and fell 0.3% in May to 82.4,...
Fed’s Goolsbee optimistic on inflation improvement
In a CNBC interview today, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed cautious optimism about inflation in the US, describing himself as “closet optimistic” that there will be improvement on the inflation front. Goolsbee refrained from commenting on the timing of...
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets It was a slow but constructive start of the week. The economic calendar had little to offer with the exception of the German Ifo indicator. Confidence fell in June from May with the headline series easing from 89.3 to 88.6. Both the current assessment (88.3)...
BTCUSD Elliott Wave : Forecasting the Decline Toward New Lows
In this technical article we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of Bitcoin BTCUSD , published in members area of the website. As our members know, Bitcoin is doing a correction against the 56510 low, which is unfolding as a Flat pattern. Now, the...
Yen Rebounds from 160 Level, Euro Gains but Political Risks Remain
USD/JPY attempt to break through the critical 160 level was unsuccessful for, as Yen recovered during a relatively quiet European session today. Although Yen surged briefly, there was no sustained selloff below the 159 mark against the greenback. The scale of the...
Instrument of the Week (June 24—28): GBPAUD Outlook
The GBPAUD pair represents the exchange rate between the British Pound and the Australian Dollar, serving as a crucial metric of economic interaction between the United Kingdom and Australia. Monetary policy changes, economic reports, and political developments...
EUR/JPY Outlook: Hits New Record High
EURJPY continues to trend higher and extends steep upleg into sixth straight day, to hit new record high above 171 mark in early Monday trading. Bulls firmly hold grip despite overbought conditions and signals from Japan’s authorities about the intervention to support...
EUR/USD: Bounce Needs to Clear 1.0760 Barrier to Signal Stronger Correction
EURUSD bounces on Monday, as traders collect profits from Thu/Fri fall. The single currency regained traction despite weaker than expected German Ifo data, as sentiment improves on growing expectations on ECB rate cut, following recent weak economic data. Markets...
Crypto Dive
Market picture Along with the rest of the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin is pulling back further into the area of last month’s lows. The sell-off intensified with the start of the new week, pushing total capitalisation back 3.6% in 24 hours to $2.26 trillion, which we...
S&P 500 Falls from Record High in Anticipation of Key News
On Friday, at 15:30 GMT+3, the Core PCE Price Index values will be released – an economic indicator to which the Federal Reserve pays special attention when assessing inflation levels in the US. This event is likely to cause a surge of news in the financial markets,...
USD/JPY Analysis: Rate Rises Above 159.9 Yen per Dollar
The yen was last this weak against the US dollar in late April, leading to currency interventions as the Bank of Japan deemed a rate above the psychological mark of 160 yen per USD unacceptable. The current weakness of the yen has triggered the usual warnings from...
Yen’s Plunge Puts Japan’s Intervention Resolve Under Scrutiny
Yen ended as the runaway loser last week as its decline reaccelerated towards the end. With the crucial 160 level against Dollar now within reach, market participants are keenly watching to see if Japan will intervene soon to prop up the Yen, or just let it depreciate...
German Ifo fall sto 88.6, struggling to overcome stagnation
German Ifo Business Climate fell from 89.3 to 88.6 in June, below expectation of 89.7. Current Assessment index was unchanged at 88.3, below expectation of 88.4. Expectations Index fell from 90.3 to 89.0, below expectation of 91.0. Ifo said that the German economy is...
FX option expiries for 24 June 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD at 1.0690-00 and that is likely to keep price action more contained in the session ahead. There isn't much else to work with to start the week, so that should see a...
Japan’s Inaction and Refrained Rhetoric Lead to Speculation on New Intervention Threshold
Yen recovered mildly in quiet Asian session along with the Swiss Franc, driven by mild risk aversion in the region. Despite this uptick, there is no strong indication of a significant rebound for the Japanese currency following its sharp decline last week. Notably,...
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast – Action Forex
EUR/USD: Eurozone – Rising Inflation, Falling Economy As revised Eurostat data published on Monday, June 17, showed, inflation (CPI) in the 20 Eurozone countries accelerated to 2.6% (y/y) in May, compared to 2.4% in April when it was at its lowest since November 2023....
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/GBP stayed in consolidation above 0.8396 last week but upside remains capped below 0.8482 support turned resistance. Initial bias stays neutral this week and further decline is expected. On the downside, below 0.8429 minor support will bring retest of 0.8396 low...
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/CHF edged lower to 0.9476 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral and some more consolidations would be seen. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9683 resistance holds. On the downside,...
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CAD stayed in consolidation below 1.3790 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Further rally is expected as long as 1.3662 support holds. Above 1.3790 will bring retest of 1.3845 high first. Nevertheless, break of 1.3662...
AUD/USD Weekly Report – Action Forex
AUD/USD’s consolidation from 0.6713 continued last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Further rally is in favor with 0.6578 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.6361 to 0.6713 at 0.6579) intact. On the upside, firm break of...
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CHF dived to 0.8825 last week but recovered strongly since then. Initial bias remains neutral for consolidations above 0.8825. Near term outlook stays bearish as long as 0.8992 resistance holds. Break of 0.8825 will resume the fall from 0.9223 to 61.8% retracement...
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/JPY’s rise from 151.68 accelerated to as high as 159.81 last week and there is no clear sign of topping yet. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 160.20 high, or possibly to 100% projection of 151.86 to 157.70 from 154.53 at 160.37. But upside should...
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/USD stayed in consolidation above 1.0667 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and further fall is expected with 1.0760 resistance intact. Decline from 1.0915 is seen as another leg in the larger corrective pattern. Break...
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/USD’s fall from 1.2859 short term top continued last week despite interim recovery. Initial bias is now on the downside this week. Sustained break of 1.2633 resistance turned support will argue that whole rise from 1.2298 has completed, and target 1.2445 and...
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/JPY’s rally last week suggests that rise form 164.01 is resuming. Initial bias stays on the upside this week. Firm break of 170.87 will target 61.8% projection of 164.01 to 170.87 from 167.52 at 171.75. On the downside, below 169.31 minor support will dampen this...
EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/AUD’s down trend continued last week but it recovered after hitting 1.6026. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. Upside should be limited by 1.6211 support turned resistance to bring another fall. Below 1.6026 will turn bias back to the...
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/JPY’s up trend resumed after brief retreat and hit as high as 202.01. Initial bias is now on the upside this week for 61.8% projection of 191.34 to 200.72 from 197.18 at 202.97. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 206.56 next. on the downside,...
Yen’s Plunge Puts Japan’s Intervention Resolve Under Scrutiny
Yen ended as the runaway loser last week as its decline reaccelerated towards the end. With the crucial 160 level against Dollar now within reach, market participants are keenly watching to see if Japan will intervene soon to prop up the Yen, or just let it depreciate...
May Data to Show Canadian Inflation on Downward Trajectory
We expect Canadian inflation numbers on Tuesday will show further signs of gradual easing in price pressures. Consumer price index growth should edge down to 2.6% year-over-year from 2.7% in April. That would mark the fifth consecutive month that annual price growth...
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Global Central Bank Decisions Galore
Summary United States: Economic Data More Rice & Beans than Steak & Eggs Markets chewed on an array of economic data this week, and what was served was mostly gristle. A weak retail sales print suggests that consumers may finally be feeling some spending...
The Weekly Bottom Line: A Grand Slam of Economic Data
U.S. Highlights U.S. retail sales grew marginally in May, however the downward revision in April points to waning momentum among U.S. consumers. Housing starts and building permits both declined in May as higher interest rates weigh on builder confidence. U.S....
S&P 500 & Nasdaq 100 Week Ahead: Is It Time for a Deeper Retracement as US Investors Shed Equity Funds…?
Over the past two weeks, US investors have shed nearly $30 billion dollars of US equity funds (net selling) according to data from LSEG. A bullish week for the S&P 500 but the Nasdaq 100 looks less convincing. A pullback in Nvidia stock and the psychological 20000...
Summary 6/24 – 6/28
Monday, Jun 24, 2024 Tuesday, Jun 25, 2024 Wednesday, Jun 26, 2024 Thursday, Jun 27, 2024 Friday, Jun 28, 2024 The post Summary 6/24 – 6/28 appeared first on Action Forex.
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2633; (P) 1.2679; (R1) 1.2704; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD is back on the downside as fall from 1.2859 resumed by breaking through 1.2656 temporary low. Firm break of 1.2633 resistance turned support will argue that whole rise from 1.2298 has...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0686; (P) 1.0719; (R1) 1.0735; More…. EUR/USD is staying in range above 1.0667 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further decline is expected with 1.0760 resistance intact. Break of 1.0667 will resume the fall from 1.0915, as another leg in the...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8855; (P) 0.8891; (R1) 0.8949; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as consolidations continue above 0.8825. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8992 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 0.8825 will resume the fall from...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 158.25; (P) 158.59; (R1) 159.28; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Rise from 151.86 is in progress for 160.20 high, or possibly to 100% projection of 151.86 to 157.70 from 154.53 at 160.37. But upside should be...
WTI Oil: Rising Demand and Geopolitical Tensions Continue to Inflate Price
WTI oil price hits new seven-week high on Friday, keeping firm tone and on course for the second consecutive weekly gain. Improving demand was signaled by fall in the US fuel inventories, as summer driving season in the world’s biggest oil consumer starts, while...
GBP/USD Shrugs Despite Sparkling Retail Sales
The British pound is slightly lower on Friday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2636 early in the North American session, down 0.17% on the day. UK retail sales hit 4-month high UK retail sales jumped 2.9% m/m in May, an impressive turnaround from the revised 1.8% decline in...
Downside PMI Surprise Brought the Euro Closer to the Critical Zone
The European session on Friday started with a new wave of euro selling, which was supported by weak preliminary PMIs. According to June estimates, the strengthening of economic activity in the eurozone, which has been gaining momentum since October, is at risk of...
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets PMI business confidence was on tap at the close of the week. The European June edition comes with an important disclaimer though. PMI owner S&P Global noted that the turmoil in the wake of the European elections and the French snap elections has likely...
Week Ahead – US PCE Inflation the Highlight of a Relatively Light Agenda
Core PCE inflation to test bets of two Fed rate cuts in 2024 Yen awaits BoJ Summary of Opinions, Tokyo CPI Canadian CPI data also enters the spotlight Will PCE data confirm Fed rate cut bets? Although the Fed’s updated dot plot pointed to only one quarter-point...
Weekly Focus – PMIs Question the Strength of Euro Area Recovery
In a fairly quiet week equities edged modestly higher, and a barrel of crude oil traded back above USD 85. Along a hawkish Norges Bank twist this supported NOK while more pricy oil weighs on JPY which continues to weaken. Japan’s top currency diplomat stressed that...
US PMI composite ticks up to 54.6, robust growth and cooling inflation
US PMI Manufacturing rose from 51.3 to 51.7 in June. PMI Services jumped from 54.8 to 55.1, a 26-month high. PMI Composite also ticked up from 54.5 to 54.6, a 26-month high. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “The...
Euro and Sterling Fall on Weak PMI Data
Euro fell notably today, along with decline in Eurozone government bond yields, following weaker-than-expected PMI data. Political instability in France is negatively impacting business activity, while Germany’s economic recovery has lost momentum. At the same time,...
Canada’s retail sales rises 0.7% mom in Apr, but falls -0.6% mom in May
Canada’s retail sales rose 0.7% mom to CAD 66.8B in April, matched expectations. Sales were up in seven of nine subsectors and were led by increases at gasoline stations and fuel vendors as well as food and beverage retailers. Core retail sales—which exclude gasoline...
UK economic growth slows as services PMI hits 7-month low
UK’s PMI data for June presents a mixed picture. Manufacturing PMI slightly increased from 51.2 to 51.4, surpassing the expectation of 51.0 and marking a 23-month high. However, Services PMI fell from 52.9 to 51.2, below expected 53.2, reaching a 7-month low....
Euro Extends Losses After Soft PMIs Release
The euro has edged lower on Friday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0687 in the European session, down 0.14% on the day. Is the eurozone economy slowing down? The week ended on a sour note in Europe as June PMIs declined in the eurozone. The Services PMI dropped to 52.6, down...
EUR/USD: Falls Further on Downbeat PMI Data
EURUSD fell to one week low on Friday and extended strong fall of Thursday, after the pair came under fresh pressure from downbeat PMI data. The reports released on Friday showed that activity in services industry in the Eurozone and bloc’s two largest economies –...
Yen Falling Again: Devaluation Scenario Remains the Main One
The Japanese yen is weakening against the US dollar again. The USD/JPY pair is rising to 158.97. The currency pair is now again close to the levels when the Bank of Japan and the country’s authorities conducted currency interventions. Japan’s top currency diplomat,...
USDCAD: Rising Opportunity
In the Daily timeframe, USDCAD is in a long-term bullish trend, and the price has fallen to the trend line. Despite a minor correction, the price bounced off the trend line and is testing an important resistance area. Moving averages indicate the possibility of...
USDCAD Bears Could Remain in Control
USDCAD eases below 1.3700; could attract new sellers in short-term Next support could emerge within 1.3600-1.3622 territory US S&P Global PMIs, Canadian retail sales on the agenda USDCAD has been tiptoeing to the downside for five consecutive trading days,...
Crypto Didn’t Dare to Grow
Market picture The crypto market failed to get on a growth path, with its capitalisation falling 1.5% to $2.35 trillion in the last 24 hours. Cryptocurrencies have had their wings clipped by the sell-off in equity markets, reflecting a downturn in risk appetite in...
Eurozone PMI manufacturing falls to 45.6, services down to 52.6
Eurozone’s PMI data for June revealed significant declines, with Manufacturing PMI falling from 47.3 to 45.6, below the expected 45.6. Services PMI also dropped from 53.2 to 52.6, missing the forecast of 53.5. Consequently, Composite PMI decreased from 52.2 to 48.0....
Yen Approaches 160 Against Dollar, Will Japan Tolerate a Move to 165 or 170?
Yen is under intense scrutiny today as it continues a six-day losing streak, approaching the key psychological level of 160 against Dollar. This move comes despite Japan’s core inflation reaccelerating in May, but failed to meet market expected pace. Additionally,...
FX option expiries for 21 June 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD at 1.0650-60 and the 1.0700 mark. Both should play the role in limiting any material downside before the expiries roll off later today. But given how price action has...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2695; (P) 1.2717; (R1) 1.2742; More… GBP/USD weakens after rejection by 55 4H EMA but stays above 1.2656 temporary low. Intraday bias remains neutral first. While another recovery cannot be ruled out, risk will stay on the downside as long as...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8835; (P) 0.8845; (R1) 0.8856; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF is turned neutral first with current recovery. Some consolidations would be seen but outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8992 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 0.8825 will...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0728; (P) 1.0741; (R1) 1.0756; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Further decline is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0756) holds. Fall from 1.0915 is seen as another leg in the larger corrective...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.76; (P) 157.94; (R1) 158.27; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY is back on the upside with break of 158.25 temporary top. Choppy rise from 151.86 has resumed and is now targeting a retest on 160.20 high. But upside should be limited there, at least...
EUR/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9483; (P) 0.9499; (R1) 0.9520; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/CHF is turned neutral with current recovery, and some consolidations would be seen first. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9683 resistance holds, and fall from 0.9928 is expected...
XAUUSD: Trend Breaking? – Action Forex
On the H4, XAUUSD reached a downtrend line after a short-term rise. The price is approaching the critical resistance area and MA200, which also acts as resistance. In this case, two scenarios are possible. If Gold breaks the resistance of 2350, the trend line and...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets The Bank of England was one of the three central bank highlights today. The Norges Bank and the Swiss National Bank outcomes are in the section down below. Threadneedle Street kept the policy rate unchanged at 5.25% in a 7-2 vote with two members voting for a...
Euro on Firmer Footing ahead of Flash PMIs as French Risks Subside
Euro rebounds as French election fears ease June PMIs to come into the spotlight amid more cautious ECB Flash estimates are due on Friday at 08:00 GMT Calmer week for the euro after French turmoil European assets are having a better week following the market panic...
GBP/USD Lower as BoE Holds Rates
The British pound is lower on Thursday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2683 in the North American session at the time of writing, down 0.29% on the day. The Bank of England held rates at today’s meeting, as expected. There are no releases out of the US today. Bank of England...
Gold & Silver Test Two-Week Hhighs on Geopolitical Concerns and Rate Cut Optimism
Key Points: Geopolitics return to the fore as concerns mount around the Middle East and Asia.. Safe haven demand sees gold (xau/usd) rise toward 2350 resistance. Silver technicals hint at the potential for further upside. Commodity markets have returned to positive...
Ethereum and Solana Get Support
Market picture The crypto market added 1% in 24 hours to $2.4 trillion, supported by positive momentum in Bitcoin (+0.9%) and interest in Ethereum (+2%). Top altcoins are mostly adding to the levels of the day before except for falling Solana (-1.6%), but it too has...
Bank of England Review – August Rate Cut in Play
At today’s monetary policy meeting the BoE left the Bank Rate unchanged at 5.25% as widely expected. As we expected, the BoE retained much of its previous guidance but delivered a slight dovish twist, laying the groundwork for an August cut. Gilt yields tracked lower...
Swiss Franc Plummets After SNB Rate Cut, Sterling Weakens Following BoE Hold
Swiss Franc is currently the worst performer today, plummeting after SNB delivered a rate cut for the second consecutive meeting. In addition to the rate reduction, SNB lowered its inflation forecast across the board. Nevertheless, Franc’s selloff has been relatively...
SNB Cut Sends Swiss Franc Tumbling
The Swiss franc is down sharply on Thursday. USD/CHF is trading at 0.8897 in the European session, up 0.67% on the day. Swiss National Bank trims rate to 1.25% The Swiss National Bank kept investors hanging right up to the last minute as to whether or not it would cut...
(BOE) Bank rate maintained at 5.25%
Monetary Policy Summary, June 2024 The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment. At its meeting ending on 19 June 2024, the MPC voted by a majority...
BoE maintains rate, eyes August forecasts for inflation assessment
BoE left Bank Rate unchanged at 5.25%, as widely anticipated, with a 7-2 vote among the Monetary Policy Committee members. Swati Dhingra and Dave Ramsden again voted for a 25 bos cut to 5.00%. The central bank stated that, as part of the August forecast round, the...
USD/JPY: Probes Again Through Pivotal Fibo Barrier, Inflated by Diverging Monetary Policies
USDJPY continues to trend higher and cracks pivotal Fibo barrier at 158.22 (76.4% of 160.19/151.85) which recently capped several attacks. Sustained break here would generate fresh bullish signal for continuation of entire recovery from 151.85 (May 3 low) and open way...
USDCHF Cheers on SNB Rate Cut
USDCHF rises rapidly after SNB lowers interest rates to 1.25% Oversold signals favor the bulls; more upside needed for a positive outlook USDCHF turned swiftly up to test its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 0.8890 after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut...
Pound Froze ahead of BoE Meeting: What Will the Central Bank Decide?
The GBP/USD pair is balancing around 1.2709 on Thursday, after the British pound rose in price against the US dollar for three consecutive days and finally paused. The Bank of England will convene for its regular meeting today, at which the regulator will review all...
Ifo upgrades German GDP forecasts, slowly working its way out of crisis
The Ifo Institute upgraded its growth forecasts for German economy, indicating that it is “slowly working its way out of the crisis.” GDP is now expected to grow by 0.4% in 2024, up from March forecast of 0.2%. Growth is projected to further accelerate to 1.5% in...
AUDUSD Extends Sideways Movement – Action Forex
AUDUSD trades back and forth within its range The ascending 50-day SMA acts as a strong floor Oscillators remain tilted to the bullish side AUDUSD has been trading sideways for more than a month now as the price has been unable to jump above the five-month high of...
Markets Await SNB and BoE Decisions, Gold Bounces Higher
As markets await rate decisions from SNB and then BoE today, both Swiss Franc and Sterling are trading largely within established ranges. SNB’s decision is particularly uncertain, with a close call on whether they will implement a second consecutive rate cut. If SNB...
FX option expiries for 20 June 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first one being for EUR/USD at the 1.0700 mark. That will once again keep price action more contained, with downside momentum likely to meet a floor at the figure level until the expiries roll...
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8442; (P) 0.8453; (R1) 0.8463; More… Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral first as consolidations continue above 0.8396. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.8482 support turned resistance holds. Below 0.8396 will resume larger down trend...
EUR/AUD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6093; (P) 1.6172; (R1) 1.6212; More… EUR/AUD’s down trend resumed by breaking through 1.6148 temporary low and intraday bias is back on the downside. Next target is 100% projection of 1.6679 to 1.6211 from 1.6418 at 1.5950. On the upside, above...
AUDUSD: Strong Zone
In the Daily Timeframe, AUDUSD started a short-term bullish trend after a long-term decline. The price has reached the critical 61.8 Fibonacci resistance area, and despite the growing bullish sentiment, two scenarios should be considered. If the bulls push the price...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2678; (P) 1.2700; (R1) 1.2730; More… GBP/USD is still in weak recovery today and intraday bias remains neutral. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.2859 resistance holds. Firm break of 1.2633 resistance turned support will argue that whole...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.50; (P) 157.87; (R1) 158.21; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Further rally would be in favor as long as 154.53 support holds. Break of 158.25 will resume the choppy rise from 151.86 towards 160.20 high....
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0713; (P) 1.0737; (R1) 1.0765; More…. No change in EUR/USD’s outlook and intraday bias remains neutral. More consolidations could be seen but further fall is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0760) holds. Fall from 1.0915 is seen as another...
ECB’s Centeno: Ideal interest rates should approach 2%, avoiding zero
ECB Governing Council member Mario Centeno remarked today that “the cycle of interest rates will continue to evolve,” signaling ongoing adjustments based on inflation trends. Centeno noted that rates “will fall if inflation helps us, which it’s doing”. However,...
CHF: Getting Bid Up Due to Safe Haven Status
The prior 6-month weakness of the Swiss franc against G-10 currencies has seen a short-term bullish reversal due to safe haven demand. Ongoing political uncertainty arising from the upcoming French legislative elections reinforced the ongoing CHF strength which led to...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8809; (P) 0.8860; (R1) 0.8892; More…. USD/CHF decline is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. Rise from 0.8332 could have completed at 0.9223, ahead of 0.9243 key resistance. Further fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of...
USD/CHF – Flat Ahead of SNB Rate Decision
The Swiss franc is almost unchanged on Wednesday. USD/CHF is trading at 0.8838 in the North American session, down 0.04% on the day. Will the Swiss National Bank cut rates again? Switzerland’s central bank will announce its rate decision on Thursday and the markets...
Sterling and Aussie Show Strength in Quiet Trading
Trading as been relatively quiet in European session today. Sterling strengthened slightly despite CPI data showing inflation returning to BoE’s target for the first time in three years. Notably, services inflation remains elevated at 5.7%, which could limit the BoE’s...
NZ Dollar Eyes First-Quarter GDP
The New Zealand dollar is steady on Tuesday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6138, down 0.10% in the European session at the time of writing. US markets are closed for a holiday. New Zealand will release first-quarter GDP early on Thursday. Is New Zealand still in recession?...
New Zealand dollar faces growth challenges
The NZD/USD pair declined to 0.6135 on Wednesday, despite the New Zealand dollar performing much better in the previous session. It rose in response to the fall of the US dollar, which was triggered by weaker-than-expected US retail sales data. These results increased...
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9466; (P) 0.9512; (R1) 0.9541; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the downside at this point Sustained trading below below 61.8% retracement of 0.9252 to 0.9928 at 0.9510 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption, and target...
Market Analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Sight Steady Increase
AUD/USD is attempting a recovery wave from 0.6590. NZD/USD could gain bullish momentum if there is a clear move above the 0.6150 resistance. Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today The Aussie Dollar found support near 0.6590 and is now recovering...
Gold Flirts With Upper Bollinger Band
Gold consolidates within ascending channel 20- and 50-period SMA post bullish cross MACD and RSI head higher Gold prices have been developing within an upward sloping channel in the short-term view with strong resistance at 2,336 and the 200-period simple moving...
XAU/USD: Gold Price Edges Higher But Still Capped Under Key Barrier
Gold price edged higher in early Wednesday’s trading after softer than expected US retail sales numbers improved the sentiment on fresh expectations for Fed rate cut this year. The price is holding near pivotal barrier at $2341 (recent range ceiling /top of ascending...
AUDCAD Bulls Stay in the Driver’s Seat
AUDCAD rebounds and breaks above 0.9125 Overall, it remains above a prior upside channel The advance may continue towards the 0.9230 zone A dip below 0.9000 could signal a bearish correction AUDCAD rebounded strongly on Tuesday, extending its recovery above the key...
UK Inflation Back at 2% But Services Inflation Remains a Concern, GBP/USD Rises
UK Inflation Rate: UK Inflation Rate YoY reaches 2% yet services inflation poses a challenge. UK Core Inflation Rate YoY 3.5% down from a previous print of 3.9%. GBP/USD rises as 1.2750 resistance area beckons. The Bank of England (BoE) will likely have mixed feelings...
USDJPY Reapproaches Multi-Year Highs – Action Forex
USDJPY in a steady advance after pullback halts at 50-day SMA Momentum indicators are strengthening in their positive zones USDJPY experienced a strong setback from its 34-year high of 160.20 following an intervention by Japanese authorities in late April. However,...
Sterling Steady as UK Inflation Eases; Australian Dollar Strengthens
British Pound held steady following release of UK data showing decrease in both headline and core consumer inflation for May. This development is unlikely to influence BoE decision tomorrow, where a rate hold is widely anticipated. Although BoE is expected to begin...
FX option expiries for 19 June 10am New York cut
There are just two to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first one being for EUR/USD at the 1.0745 level. That is likely to help keep price action in the pair more muted, sticking closer to the expiries before rolling off later.Then, there is the one...
RBA Readiness to Hike Positive for AUD
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its key rate at a 12-year high of 4.35%. The market widely expected the decision, so it did not cause a spike in volatility. However, we note that the RBA warned that it was ready to raise the rate. In its commentary on the rate...
ECB’s de Guindos emphasizes importance of economic projections in rate decisions
ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos highlighted the critical role of updated macroeconomic projections in shaping interest rate decisions. During an interview with Spanish state broadcaster TVE, Guindos noted, “The projections are updated every three months, so we’ll...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.27; (P) 157.62; (R1) 158.07; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. Further rally would be in favor as long as 154.53 support holds. Break of 158.25 will resume the choppy rise from 151.86 towards 160.20 high. But upside...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2673; (P) 1.2691; (R1) 1.2724; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment and some more consolidations would be seen. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.2859 resistance holds. Firm break of 1.2633 resistance turned...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets European markets for the second consecutive day enjoyed an interludium of calm after last week’s turbulence. There was little ‘new news’ from the political scene in France. Jordan Bardella of the far right Rassemblement National (RN) in an interview said his...
Will BoE Signal Rate Cuts Looming?
Soft UK data increase chances for September rate cut But wage growth remains elevated BoE meets on Thursday at 11:00 GMT But looming election could be a reason for cautiousness Investors more convinced about a September cut At its latest gathering, the Bank of England...
SNB Expected to Cut, But Risk of Disappointment
Expectations of a June cut by the SNB have been gaining traction But inflation picture isn’t entirely favourable; weak franc doesn’t help A lot of uncertainty awaits the SNB’s decision due Thursday at 07:30 GMT Will the SNB cut rates again? The Swiss National Bank...
Fed’s Williams foresees gradual rate cuts amid continued disinflation
New York Fed President John Williams shared optimistic views on the US economy in an interview with FOX Business today. Williams highlighted encouraging signs that supply and demand are rebalancing, contributing to a “disinflationary process continuing.” He...
Fed’s Barkin optimistic on inflation, emphasizes “sustainment” and “broadening”
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin expressed optimism about the inflation outlook in an interview with MNI Webcast. Barkin noted that we are “on the back side of inflation,” indicating that inflationary pressures are easing. He highlighted that the next several...
US dollar rebounds on fixing demand
The US dollar has made a nice comeback today, despite the softer retail sales data. The latest round of bids came ahead of the London fix, so that could have been a driver, especially with a US holiday tomorrow.That said, the bids came early for a fixing trade and the...
U.S. Retail Sales Eked Out a Gain in May
Retail sales rose 0.1% for the month of May. Additionally, April’s figure was revised downward to -0.2% month/month (previously flat). The reading was lower than the consensus forecast calling for an increase of 0.3%. Trade in the auto sector was up 0.8% m/m,...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0701; (P) 1.0719; (R1) 1.0753; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and some more consolidations could be seen above 1.0667. Further fall is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0765) holds. Fall from 1.0915 is seen as another leg in...
EUR/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9520; (P) 0.9544; (R1) 0.9572; More…. EUR/CHF’s fall from 0.9928 resumed after brief recovery and intraday bias is back on the downside. Sustained trading below below 61.8% retracement of 0.9252 to 0.9928 at 0.9510 will raise the chance of long...
Swiss Franc Rallies Amid Falling Yields and Political Risks
Swiss Franc breaks higher in early US session as benchmark treasury yields in both the US and Europe plummeted. This rise was partly triggered by US retail sales data coming in much weaker than anticipated. Additionally, investor sentiment in Europe remains fragile...
US retail sales rise 0.1% mom in May, ex-auto sales down -0.1% mom
US retail sales rose 0.1% mom to USD 703.1B in May, below expectation of 0.3% mom. Ex-auto sales fell -0.1% mom to 569.0B, worse than expectation of 0.2% mom growth. Ex-gasoline sales rose 0.3% mom to USD 649.5B. Ex-auto and gasoline sales rose 0.1% mom to USD 515.5B....
WTI Oil Futures Surge Back to 80
WTI oil futures swiftly recoup June’s lost ground to trade again above 80 Technical signals return to positive area, but there is another barrier nearby Hopes of increased demand in the next quarter caused WTI oil futures to surge back to 80.60, erasing earlier losses...
GBP/USD Eyes UK Inflation – Action Forex
The British pound has edged lower on Tuesday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2683 in the European session at the time of writing, down 0.16% on the day. There are no UK events on Tuesday, while the US releases retail sales. On Wednesday, we’ll get a look at UK inflation for...
German ZEW ticks up to 47.5, sentiment and situation stagnate
German ZEW Economic Sentiment ticked up from 47.1 to 47.5 in June, below expectation of 50.0. Current Situation Index fell from -72.3 to -73.8, below expectation of -69.0. Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment rose from 47.0 to 51.3, above expectation of 47.2. Current...
Eurozone CPI finalized at 2.6% in May, core at 2.9%
Eurozone CPI was finalized at 2.6% yoy in May, up from April’s 2.4% yoy. CPI core (ex energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) was finalized at 2.9% yoy, up from prior month’s 2.7% yoy. The highest contribution to the annual inflation rate came from services (+1.83...
Crypto Continues Its Retreat – Action Forex
Market picture In 24 hours, crypto capitalisation fell 2.2% to $2.36 trillion. Bitcoin’s relatively moderate 1% decline contrasts with a much deeper dive in altcoins. Ethereum fell 3.3%, Solana plunged 7.8%, and Dogecoin dropped 9.2%. The main momentum of the decline...
Brent Oil Has Risen in Price: Reliance on Stock Market Demand Has Worked
The commodity market was adjusted moderately on Tuesday morning after the price of Brent crude oil rose by 2% the day before. A barrel of the North Sea variety is at about 84 USD. The main support factor currently is the improving prospects for global demand....
RBA More Alert and Less Certain in its Inflation Fight
The RBA left the cash rate on hold at 4.35%, but their rhetoric suggests the Board is more alert to upside inflation risks. Indeed, the RBA Board appears less certain that inflation is moderating as they’d like and there’s lingering concerns about persistent price...
GBPUSD Falls to a Fresh 1-Month Low
GBPUSD declines to its lowest level since May 17 Momentum indicators ease but remain in positive zones GBPUSD was in a steady recovery following its bounce off the 2024 bottom of 1.2298, with the price violating both the 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs)....
Yen Recovers as BoJ’s Ueda Reiterates July Hike Possibility, But Gains Capped by Uncertainty
Japanese Yen had a modest recovery in Asian session, accompanied by an uptick in 10-year JGB yield and Nikkei. This comes as BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda continued to prepare the markets for more tightening ahead, by reiterating that another rate hike in July is a...
US 500 Index Eases After the Climb to New High
US 500 index calms near the 261.8% Fibonacci extension level RSI and Stochastics are flattening The US 500 (cash) index has been moving with weak momentum over the last couple of sessions after the surge towards a new record peak of 5,449.73, holding near the 261.8%...
AUD/USD Mid-Day Report – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6590; (P) 0.6617; (R1) 0.6643; More... No change in AUD/USD’s outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is in favor with 0.6578 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.6361 to 0.6713 at 0.6579) intact. On the upside, firm break of...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.73; (P) 157.50; (R1) 158.23; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Further rally would remain in favor as long as 154.53 support holds. Break of 158.25 will resume the choppy rise from 151.86 towards 160.20 high. But...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8876; (P) 0.8921; (R1) 0.8946; More…. USD/CHF is still bounded in range above 0.8880 and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, sustained break of 0.8883 fibonacci level will carry larger bearish implications and bring deeper decline. On...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2640; (P) 1.2702; (R1) 1.2748; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside at this point. Fall from 1.2859 short term top would target 1.2633 resistance turned support first. Firm break there will argue that whole rise from 1.2298 has...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0666; (P) 1.0705; (R1) 1.0743; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on downside for the moment. Fall from 1.0915 is seen as another leg in the larger corrective pattern. Deeper decline would be seen to 1.0601 low first. Firm break there will...
USD/JPY: Bulls Hold Grip for Retest of Pivotal Fibo Barrier
USDJPY firmed further on Monday and partially offset warning from long upper shadow of Friday’s daily candle, as fresh strength looks for retest of pivotal Fibo resistance at 158.22 (76.4% of 160.19/151.85) which capped Friday’s rally. Firm break here to open way...
Euro Steadies After Market Jitters Subside
The euro is steady on Monday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0714 in the North American session, up 0.10% on the day. French election triggers market turmoil France’s financial markets took a tumble late last week, as investors are nervous about the snap parliamentary...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets A sense of calm returned to European markets for now. Le Pen from the poll-leading Rassemblement National sought to reassure investors on the budgetary front if her party were to win the elections. It may have helped to stop the rout in European/French assets...
RBA Policy Meeting May Be Muted; Aussie Remains Choppy
RBA interest rate expected to remain unchanged Sticky inflation and economy’s uncertainty still a concern Aussie holds in downward channel ahead of Tuesday’s decision at 04:30 GMT Australia’s uncertain economy and sustained inflation The Reserve Bank of Australia...
Soft Retail sales Could Curb Fed Hawks’ Rhetoric
Market ponders the Fed’s stance after a hawkish gathering Retail sales to reveal the strength of domestic demand Dollar on the front foot; could suffer if data weaken this week The May retail sales report will be released on Tuesday 12:30 GMT At last week’s Fed...
EURUSD Battles With 61.8% Fibo
EURUSD drops to a fresh 1-month low after violating SMAs Quickly recoups some losses and challenges 61.8% Fibo Oscillators suggest that bearish forces are strengthening EURUSD has undergone some volatile sessions in the past few days, eventually dipping beneath both...
Aussie Weakens as Market Eyes Upcoming RBA Rate Decision
Australian Dollar declines broadly today, as markets brace for the upcoming RBA rate decision. With the cash rate expected to hold steady at 4.35%, speculation is rife about RBA’s future monetary policy direction. Although the central bank maintains an open stance on...
Australian Dollar Drifting Ahead of RBA Decision
The Australian dollar is steady on Monday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6605 in the European session, down 0.14% on the day. Last week, the Australian dollar rose as much as 1.8% but pared most of these gains. RBA expected to hold rates The Reserve Bank of Australia will...
Gold Price Outlook: Bears Take Early Control as US Dollar Index (DXY) Rises
Gold surrendered Friday’s gains as a retest of $2300 gains momentum. US dollar index (DXY) rises but faces stern resistance at 105.63. Geopolitics remains on the back burner for now, but risks remain. Fundamental Overview and Week Ahead Gold prices began the week on...
SECO slightly upgrades Swiss economic forecasts, but below-average growth persists
The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs said that Swiss economic forecasts remain largely unchanged, with growth expected to stay below average this year. The Expert Group on Business Cycles projects a modest growth rate of 1.2% for the Swiss economy in 2024,...
Does EURCHF Correction Have Legs?
EURCHF drops to a 4-month low Significant correction over the past 15 days Momentum indicators confirm the bearish pressure EURCHF has been on a freefall since late May with the move picking up pace following the recent European elections and the first ECB rate cut....
Nikkei Index Falls Below 38,000 Points This Month for First Time
According to today’s Nikkei 225 (Japan 225 on FXOpen) chart, the index quote dropped below 38,000 points at Monday’s low, followed by a recovery (shown by an arrow). One of the drivers of the decline was the automotive sector, whose shares led during the downturn. In...
Ethereum Bolstered by Hopes, Bitcoin Waits for a Signal
Market picture The cryptocurrency market has lost almost 5% over the past seven days. It has not given up important support levels but also has no significant drivers to resume growth. Bitcoin lost 4.7% over the week, in unison with the market. Ethereum lost 3%, while...
New Zealand Dollar is Falling
Like other major currencies, the New Zealand dollar is under pressure from the strong US dollar. This development comes after the Federal Reserve’s updated forecasts last week. Stock market expectations point to only one interest rate cut this year, most likely in...
ECB’s Lane confidence on inflation, cautions on interpreting data noise
ECB’s Chief Economist Philip Lane expressed “a lot, a fair amount of confidence” today that Eurozone inflation is on track to return to 2% target by the latter half of next year. In his remarks, Lane highlighted the importance of judiciously interpreting incoming...
Gold Attempts to Erase Latest Slump
Gold falls to its lowest level in a month But recovers some ground, eyeing 50-day SMA Oscillators improve but remain negatively tilted Gold has been experiencing a pullback from its all-time high of 2,450, breaking below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA)....
FX option expiries for 17 June 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0670 level. If anything else, that will act as a bit of a defensive layer in limiting downside price action before rolling off. It isn't exactly a technically...
Euro Finds Stability, Markets Anticipates Turbulent Week Ahead
The forex markets are pretty steady in Asian session today, with Euro stabilizing from its previous sharp sell-off. Meanwhile, Dollar and Yen are posting modest gains. In contrast, commodity currencies showed less resilience, and Swiss Franc surrendered some of its...
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast – Action Forex
EUR/USD: Hawkish Sentiments of the Fed As expected, the key day of last week was Wednesday, 12 June. After the publication of inflation data in the USA, the dollar came under strong pressure. Fresh figures showed that in May, the overall inflation rate (CPI) in annual...
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/CHF’s sharp decline last week suggests that rise from 0.9252 has already completed at 0.9928 already. Initial bias stays on the downside this week. Sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 0.9252 to 0.9928 at 0.9510 will raise the chance of long term down...
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CAD edged higher to 1.3790 last week but retreated since then. Intraday bias remains neutral this week first. Corrective fall from 1.3845 should have completed already. Further rally is expected as long as 1.3662 support holds. Break of 1.3790 will target a retest...
AUD/USD Weekly Report – Action Forex
AUD/USD stayed in range of 0.6575/6713 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further rally is in favor with 0.6578 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.6361 to 0.6713 at 0.6579) intact. On the upside, firm break of 0.6713...
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CHF was supported by 0.8883 fibonacci level and recovered. But upside was capped by 0.8987 support turned resistance. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, sustained break of 0.8883 fibonacci level will carry larger bearish implications and...
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/USD edged higher to 1.2859 last week, but subsequent decline argues that rise from 1.2298 has completed already, on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 1.2633 resistance turned support first. Firm break there...
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/JPY’s choppy rise from 151.86 resumed by breaching 157.70 resistance last week. Initial bias stays mildly on the upside this week. Further rally could be seen to retest 160.20 high. But upside should be limited there, at least on first attempt. On the downside,...
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook
Euro’s strong decline last week suggests that rebound from 1.0601 has already completed as a correction to 1.0915. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for retesting 1.0601 low first. Firm break there will target channel support at 1.0510 next. On the...
EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/AUD’s down trend resumed by breaking through 1.6211 support last week. While downside momentum is a bit unconvincing, there is no sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias is on the downside this week for 61.8% projection of 1.6679 to 1.6211 from 1.6418 at 1.6129. Firm...
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/GBP fell sharply to 0.8396 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias is neutral this week for consolidations first. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.8482 support turned resistance holds. Below 0.8396 will resume larger down trend to 0.8376...
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/JPY engaged in sideway trading most of last week but late break of 168.01 support is inline with the case that rise from 164.01 has completed already. Initial bias is back on the downside this week. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 167.41) will extend the...
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/JPY’s up trend resumed last week and edged higher to 201.59, but retreated notably since then. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Further rally is expected as long as 197.18 support holds. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 H MACD,...
Sharp Declines in Euro and European Markets Triggered by French Political Drama
Global financial markets were abuzz with several high-profile events last week, including critical meetings of Fed and BoJ, alongside release of US inflation data. However, it was the escalating political turmoil in France that captured the most attention,...
Housing and Retail Sales Data to Show Canadians Continue to Hold Back
Economic data in the week ahead should show further softening in Canadian (per-person) household spending before the Bank of Canada pivoted to lower interest rates in June. Early reports from regional real estate boards suggested housing markets were in a holding...
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Inflation Cools as Summer Begins
Summary United States: Inflation Cools as Summer Begins A bevy of soft inflation data for May fueled optimism that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates at the September FOMC meeting. On Wednesday, the May CPI data showed that consumer prices were unchanged in...
The Weekly Bottom Line: The Data Will Light the Way
U.S. Highlights In a widely expected move, the Federal Reserve held the policy rate steady in the target range of 5.25%-5.5%. FOMC participants now expect fewer rate cuts this year, with the median projection showing just one cut by year-end (previously three)....
Summary 6/17 – 6/21
Monday, Jun 17, 2024 Tuesday, Jun 18, 2024 Wednesday, Jun 19, 2024 Thursday, Jun 20, 2024 Friday, Jun 21, 2024 The post Summary 6/17 – 6/21 appeared first on Action Forex.
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0709; (P) 1.0763; (R1) 1.0793; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/USD continues today and intraday bias stays on the downside for 1.0601 support. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 1.1138, as the third leg of the pattern from 1.1274, and...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2732; (P) 1.2770; (R1) 1.2802; More… GBP/USD’s break of 1.2687 support argues that rise from 1.2298 might have completed at 1.2859, on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Intraday bias is back on the downside fro 1.2633 resistance turned...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8921; (P) 0.8945; (R1) 0.8962; More…. Range trading continues in USD/CHF and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, sustained break of 0.8883 fibonacci level will carry larger bearish implications and bring deeper decline. On the upside,...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.84; (P) 156.61; (R1) 157.49; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside at this point. Choppy rise from 151.86 would continue to retest 160.20 high but strong resistance could be seen there to limit upside. On the downside, below 156.57...
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets Outright risk-off from the start of trading today. French President Macron’s parliamentary election bet culminated in the current risk climate. The French president’s approval rating hit an air pocket and his Renaissance party is burnt. Nobody, stretching from...
Weekly Focus – Political Uncertainty on the Rise in Europe
This week was dominated by events in the US. The FOMC kept policy rate unchanged at its Wednesday meeting as widely expected. The median of the updated dot plot now signals only one cut for this year, but it remains a close call. While four members expect no cuts,...
Bank of England Preview – Laying the Groundwork for an August Cut
We expect the Bank of England (BoE) to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 5.25% on 20 June, which is in line with consensus and current market pricing. Overall, we expect the MPC to stick to its current communication, priming the markets for a forthcoming start to a...
Week Ahead – RBA, SNB and BoE Next to Secide, CPI and PMI Data Also on Tap
It will be another central-bank-heavy week with the RBA, SNB and BoE None are expected to cut but there’s room for surprises Retail sales will be the highlight in the United States Plenty of other data also on the way, including flash PMIs and UK CPI RBA is in a...
WTI Oil Week Ahead: WTI Eyes $80 a Barrel on Demand Optimism
WTI Oil on course for its best week in over two months. WTI unfazed as OPEC and IEA forecast paint differing demand pictures. WTI eyeing trendline break and psychological $80 a barrel mark. Fundamental Overview and Week in Review WTI oil prices are experiencing a...
RBA Preview: Comforts and Confidence
The RBA Board is expected to leave the cash rate unchanged at next week’s meeting. The recent data-flow will provide some comfort that restrictive policy is bringing inflation back under control, but the path is still uncertain. Vigilance remains the order of the day...
EUR/USD: Extends Steep Fall as Political Uncertainty Sours the Sentiment
EURUSD extends sharp fall into second straight day and trading near the lowest in 1 ½ month low on Friday. Fresh risk aversion on growing political uncertainty in France, with tremors hitting the whole euro-bloc, put the single currency under strong pressure. The pair...
Fed’s Mester urges caution despite positive inflation data
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester expressed cautious optimism in an CNBC interview today, acknowledging the positive trend in the latest May CPI data. “It is welcome to see that inflation is moving back down again,” Mester stated. However, she stressed the need...
Euro Resumes Decline as French Bond Risk Premium Surges Amid Political Turmoil
Euro is once again capturing market attention today as this week’s significant selloff resumes. The steep decline has been driven by rising political tensions in France, as the snap parliamentary election called by President Emmanuel Macron has heightened investor...
German DAX: Torpedoed by Rising Geopolitical Risk Premium in Eurozone
The rising power and influence of the EU’s far-right political parties have spooked European financial markets. A poll has indicated prominent French far-right National Rally party is leading by a significant margin over the incumbent President Macron’s party for the...
EURUSD in a Dramatic Downfall
EURUSD corrects sharply down to 1½-month low; gives up previous gains Technical signals remain bearish; support expected near 1.0650-1.0660 EURUSD continued to sink for the second consecutive day on Friday, reversing entirely its post-US CPI upturn and trimming a...
EUR/AUD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6146; (P) 1.6210; (R1) 1.6245; More… Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral at this point, and outlook stays bearish with 1.6418 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 1.6173 will resume the decline from 1.6742, as the third leg of the...
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8399; (P) 0.8428; (R1) 0.8444; More… EUR/GBP’s fall resumed after brief recovery and intraday bias is back on the downside. Current down trend should target 0.8376 projection level next. For now, risk will remain on the downside as long as 0.8457...
GBPJPY Bounces to 14-Year High; Eyes on 201 Resistance
GBPJPY stepped on the long-term ascending line at 200 and jumped to a new 14-year high of 201.59 in the BoJ aftermath on Friday with scope to continue its long-term positive trend. The short-term risk is more on the upside than on the downside. Specifically, the...
Eurozone exports rises 14.0% yoy, imports up 1.8% yoy in Apr
Eurozone goods exports rose 14.0% yoy to EUR 247.6B in April. Goods imports rose 1.8% yoy to EUR 232.5B. Trade balance showed EUR 15.0B surplus. Intra-Eurozone trade rose 5.8% yoy to EUR 222.89B. In seasonally adjusted term, goods exports rose 3.1% mom to EUR 245.3B....
Japanese Yen Fell to a Six-Week Low after Bank of Japan Ended Its Meeting
The Japanese yen exchange rate paired with the US dollar looks unimpressive by the end of this week. The USD/JPY pair rose to almost 158.00 immediately after the end of the June meeting of the Bank of Japan, which left the interest rate unchanged. Everything went...
GBPJPY bBounces to 14-Year High; Eyes on 201 Resistance
GBPJPY stepped on the long-term ascending line at 200 and jumped to a new 14-year high of 201.59 in the BoJ aftermath on Friday with scope to continue its long-term positive trend. The short-term risk is more on the upside than on the downside. Specifically, the...
USDCAD Remains Bullish With Weak Momentum
USDCAD fails to extend above 1.3785 Stochastics suggest bearish retracement USDCAD is still developing above the short-term simple moving averages (SMAs), which are ready for a bullish crossover, and above the medium-term uptrend line. Technically, the MACD oscillator...
FX option expiries for 14 June 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. But barring any surprise moves, they aren't likely to feature much into play.The first ones are for EUR/USD at 1.0800-10, which aren't likely to be of much impact. The euro is weighed down by political angst...
BoJ Decision Sends Yen Plummeting as Taper Plan Delayed
The Japanese Yen has taken a significant hit today, losing ground against all major currencies after BoJ refrained from detailing an immediate plan to taper its bond purchases. In the lead-up to the announcement, expectations were high among traders and investors that...
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8425; (P) 0.8439; (R1) 0.8459; More… Intraday bias in EUR/GBP is turned neutral with current recovery, and some consolidations would be seen first. Further decline is expected as long as 0.8482 support turned resistance holds. Below 0.8417 will...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8897; (P) 0.8940; (R1) 0.8988; More…. No change in USD/CHF’s outlook as range trading continues. Intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, sustained break of 0.8883 fibonacci level will carry larger bearish implications and bring deeper...
Aussie Shrugs After Strong Employment Data
The Australian dollar has edged lower on Thursday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6674 in the North American session, up 0.14% on the day. The Aussie didn’t show much reaction to today’s solid Australian employment report. Australian employment beats forecasts Australia’s...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.84; (P) 156.61; (R1) 157.49; More… No change in USD/JPY’s outlook as range trading continues. Intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 154.53 will turn bias to the downside for 151.86 support and possibly below, as the third leg...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Yesterday’s ‘hawkish’ Fed dots raising governors’ 2024/25 inflation projections, a higher reference for the neutral rate (2.75% ) and indicating only one rate cut this year as the FOMC’s preferred interest rate scenario only limited the big decline in US...
XAU/USD: $2,500 Target Remains in Focus But Consolidation Likely to Precede Fresh Rally
Gold is likely to retest the latest record high and attack psychological $2500 level in coming months, as all key factors that drive the metal’s price remain supportive. Persisting geopolitical tensions and threats of escalation continue to underpin demand, along with...
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Preview: Potential Cut in Bond Buying to Aid Ailing Yen?
Hawkish FOMC adds further pressure on the BoJ as USD/JPY advances. Speculation builds that the BoJ will announce a more comprehensive cut to its bond buying programme. Fundamental Overview: FOMC Recap and BoJ Outlook The Japanese continued its slide this morning as...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2733; (P) 1.2796; (R1) 1.2862; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral first but further rally is expected as long as 1.2687 support holds. Above 1.2869 will target 1.2892 resistance. Decisive break there will strengthen the case that...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0745; (P) 1.0799; (R1) 1.0862; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. On the upside, firm break of 1.0915 will resume whole rise from 1.0601. On the downside, break of 1.0718 will resume the fall from 1.0915 instead. In the...
Dollar’s Rebound Stalls Amid Weak PPI and Jobless Claims; Focus Shifts to BoJ
Trading activity slowed notably today as the markets turned relatively quiet. Dollar attempted a rebound from its losses earlier this week but struggled to gain momentum after worse-than-expected PPI and jobless claims data. Despite being one of the weaker performers...
US PPI at -0.2% mom, 2.2% yoy in May
US PPI for final demand fell -0.2% mom in May, below expectation of 0.2% mom rise. PPI goods fell -0.8% mom, largest decline since October 2023. PPI energy fell -4.8% mom. PPI food fell -0.1% mom while PPI ex food and energy rose 0.3% mom. PPI services was unchanged....
US initial jobless claims jump to 242k, vs exp 227k
US initial jobless claims rose 13k to 242k in the week ending June 8, above expectation of 227k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 5k to 222k. Continuing claims rose 30k to 1820k in the week ending June 1. Four-week moving average of continuing claims...
US Dollar Declines as Fed Signals Potential Rate Cut and Inflation Eases
The EUR/USD pair is holding steady around 1.0805 on Thursday, following a surge in volatility the previous evening. The Federal Reserve concluded its meeting with a neutral stance, maintaining the interest rate at 5.25% per annum as anticipated. The Fed’s comments...
WTI Crude Oil Fails to Improve Upside Move
WTI crude finds tough obstacle at 200-day SMA Technical oscillators head south WTI crude oil returned above the medium-term ascending trend line, hitting the strong 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 79.36 after bouncing off the four-month low of 72.46. The...
Nasdaq 100: Minor Melt-Up Sequence May Have Hit a Roadblock
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has given up all its ex-post US CPI intraday gains triggered by losses inflicted on the 10-year US Treasury Note futures. The ongoing weakness seen on the DJIA may act as a drag on the Nasdaq 100. Watch the 19,800 pivotal...
Crypto Growth Derailed – Action Forex
Market Picture The cryptocurrency market failed to get on the growth rails, losing 0.7% in 24 hours to $2.44 trillion, near end-of-day levels on Wednesday. The positive effect of the soft inflation report was erased by the Fed’s comparatively tightening stance, which...
EUR/USD: Remains Constructive Despite More Hawkish Than Expected Powell
EURUSD is consolidating within a narrow range on Thursday morning, following strong rally on Wednesday (up 0.65%), but remains constructive despite Wednesday’s upside rejection and a bull-trap above converged 10/20DMA’s. The single currency rallied on weaker than...
Eurozone industrial production down -0.1% mom in Apr, EU up 0.5% mom
Eurozone industrial production fell -0.1% mom in April, worse than expectation of 0.1% mom growth. Industrial production, decreased by -0.4% for intermediate goods. Production increased by by 0.4% for energy, 0.7% for capital goods, 0.3% for durable consumer goods,...
ECB’s Vasle: Further rate cuts possible this year if data remains favorable
ECB Governing Council member Bostjan Vasle has hinted at the possibility of further rate cuts this year, provided the baseline scenario holds and economic data supports such a move.Speaking to Finance newspaper, Vasle said, “If the baseline scenario is realized and...
AUDUSD: Buying The Dips at the Blue Box Area
In this technical article we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of AUDUSD Forex pair , published in members area of the website. As our members know, AUDUSD has recently given us correction against the 0.63618 low. The pair reached our target...
FX option expiries for 13 June 10am New York cut
There are quite a number to take note of for the day, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD and they are layered between 1.0775 to 1.0810. Given that price action is also meddling with the key daily moving averages at 1.0788-02 currently, the expiries...
Dollar Stabilizes After FOMC Projections, Eyes on US PPI and Jobless Claims
While Dollar had a sharp decline following US consumer inflation data overnight, the selloff was short-lived. The greenback stabilized and recovered after FOMC projections indicated that only one rate cut is likely this year. Stock and bond markets showed little...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.83; (P) 157.12; (R1) 157.43; More… USD/JPY drops sharply in early US session but stays in range of 154.53/157.70 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 154.53 will turn bias to the downside for 151.86 support and...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8955; (P) 0.8974; (R1) 0.8996; More…. USD/CHF falls sharply after rejection by 0.8987 support turned resistance and 55 4H EMA. But it;s staying above 0.8880/3 support zone so far. Intraday bias remain neutral first. On the downside, sustained...
(FED) Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. In recent months, there has been modest...
FOMC projects one rate cut this year, no member expects another hike
Fed left interest rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50% as widely expected. The new economic projections are slightly on the hawkish side, indicating that the majority of FOMC expects only one rate cut this year. The neutral rate was also raised. But investors could be...
AUD/USD: Australian Dollar Rallies 1.35% as US Inflation Eases Below Expectations
Australian dollar was one of the top gainers among major currencies on Wednesday, after weaker than expected US CPI data revived hopes disinflation is back to play and added to doves advocating for September Fed rate cut. AUDUSD pair advanced 1.35% after release of...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0715; (P) 1.0745; (R1) 1.0769; More…. EUR/USD’s strong rebound and break of 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0812) argues that pull back form 1.0915 has completed at 1.0718. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.0915 resistance first. Firm break there will...
EUR/AUD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6217; (P) 1.6277; (R1) 1.6318; More… EUR/AUD’s break of 1.6211 support confirms resumption of decline from 1.6742, as the third leg of the correction from 1.7062. Intraday bias is now on the downside for 61.8% projection of 1.6679 to 1.6211 from...
US: Inflationary Pressures Cool More Than expected in May
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was flat in May, coming in below the consensus forecast calling for a modest gain of 0.1% month-on-month (m/m). On a twelve-month basis, CPI edged lower by 0.1 percentage points to 3.3%. Energy prices dipped by 2.0% last month, largely...
US Dollar Index: Dollar Falls Sharply on Softer than Expected US May Inflation Numbers
The US dollar fell across the board in immediate reaction to softer than expected US May inflation numbers, which revived hopes for Fed rate cut in September. US m/m consumer prices were flat in May after 0.3% increase in April and annualized rose by 3.3% last month,...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets US May CPI numbers served as an appetizer going into tonight’s FOMC meeting. Both headline (flat) and core (+0.2% m/m) inflation missed expectations for a 0.1% and 0.3% rise respectively. That resulted in slower y/y readings of 3.3% and 3.4% with the latter...
After Macron’s Election Gamble, Is Political Risk a New Headwind for the Euro?
Snap elections in France spur panic in euro and French stock market Doubts about Germany’s coalition add to euro’s woes Is political instability about to become a persistent risk for the euro? Europe steers to the right Financial markets don’t usually pay so much...
EURUSD Recoups Losses and Bearish Gap after US CPI
EURUSD posts gains above 1.0800 RSI crosses above 50 level EURUSD is extending its rebound off 1.0740 after US inflation data that was lower than expected. The pair jumped above the 50- and the 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) as well as the 1.0800 round number....
Dollar Plummets on Softer Inflation Data Ahead of Crucial FOMC Decision
Dollar took a significant hit in early US session, following the release of weaker-than-expected consumer inflation data. A particularly notable point is that headline CPI remained flat for the month, a scenario not seen since November last year. Annual core CPI also...
US CPI at 0.0% mom, 3.3% yoy in May, below expectations
US CPI was flat at 0.0% mom in May below expectation of 0.2% mom. CPI core (all items less food and energy)rose 0.2% mom, below expectation of 0.3% mom. Food prices rose 0.1% mom, while energy prices fell -2.0% mom. For the 12-month period, CPI slowed from 3.4% yoy to...
Gold (XAU/USD) Vulnerable Heading Into US CPI and FOMC Releases
Gold struggles for direction ahead of key US data releases as geopolitics take a backseat. People’s Bank of China (PBoC) pauses gold buying following 18-Month spree. Downside momentum appears to be building as buyers lack conviction. Fundamental Overview Gold has...
GBP/USD: Cable Remains Constructive Despite Weak UK GDP Numbers, All Eyes on US CPI/Fed
Cable ticked higher in European trading on Wednesday, showing no significant reaction on overall negative UK economic data (GDP was flat in April/construction and manufacturing output fell sharply) as traders await release of US CPI data and signals from Fed at the...
Euro Hits Monthly Low Amid Political Instability in France
The EUR/USD pair declined to 1.0740 on Wednesday, nearing the month’s low. This downward movement is primarily driven by the political instability in France following the significant developments in the European Parliament elections. French President Emmanuel Macron...
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8440; (P) 0.8456; (R1) 0.8472; More… Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the downside. Current down trend should target 0.8376 projection level next. On the upside, above 0.8446 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring...
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 168.24; (P) 168.83; (R1) 169.37; More… Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral as range trading continues. On the downside, break of 168.01 support will strengthen the case that rise from 164.31 has completed at 170.78 already. Intraday bias will...
NZDUSD Recoups Post-NFP Slide – Action Forex
NZDUSD surges to its highest since March 8 But undergoes a setback after strong NFP report Oscillators ease but remain in positive zones NZDUSD has been in an aggressive uptrend following its 2024 bottom of 0.5851 in mid-April, posting a fresh three-month high last...
Crypto Market Took a Break from Support
Market picture The crypto market cap lost another 0.9% over the last 24 hours, pulling back to $2.44 trillion and extending losses from Friday’s peak to 8%. Since the end of the day on Tuesday, market volatility has noticeably decreased as more traders are taking a...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 199.77; (P) 200.09; (R1) 200.49; More… Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, decisive break of 200.72 will resume larger up trend. Nevertheless, break of 197.18 will turn bias to the downside and extend the...
FX option expiries for 12 June 10am New York cut
There are a few to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The ones for AUD/USD will matter more for the session ahead at least. They are layered between 0.6615 to 0.6630 and should keep price action more contained before we get to the main events later...
Risk-On Sentiment Holds; Key US Inflation and Fed Announcements Loom
The forex markets are predominantly range-bound today as traders eagerly anticipate two pivotal events: US Consumer Price Index release and Federal Reserve’s economic projections. These announcements have the potential to trigger significant market volatility, given...
Crypto Nosedive – Action Forex
Market Picture The cryptocurrency market spent Monday in a very narrow range but started Tuesday with a violent sell-off, losing over 2.8% in 24 hours to $2.47 trillion. Bitcoin is retreating at the same pace as the market as a whole, while Ethereum is down 3.5%. Top...
Alarming UK Labour Market Data
Unexpected weakness in the UK labour market could signal an important turnaround in the economy and raise the urgency of monetary easing. The short-term impact on the Pound has been relatively limited, but the currency market has now adopted a wait-and-see approach...
Euro Under Pressure as Macron Calls Snap Election
The euro is down for a third straight day and has dropped 1.3% since Thursday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0731 in the European session, down 0.32% on the day. There are no releases out of the US or the eurozone today. It was a busy weekend in Europe, as voters went to...
EUR/GBP Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8440; (P) 0.8456; (R1) 0.8472; More… EUR/GBP’s decline continues to as low as 0.8418 so far. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 0.8376 projection level next. On the upside, above 0.8446 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and...
Aussie Edges Lower as Business Confidence Slips
The Australian dollar has declined by 0.28% on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6600 in the European session, down 0.16% on the day. On the data calendar, Australian NAB business confidence was weak and there are no economic releases out of the US. Australian business...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.57; (P) 156.33; (R1) 157.52; More… USD/JPY retreats ahead of 157.70 resistance and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, break of 157.70 will resume the whole rise from 151.86 and target 160.20 high. Nevertheless, break of 154.53 will turn...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8952; (P) 0.8969; (R1) 0.8982; More…. USD/CHF is still bounded in range of 0.8880/8987 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, firm break of 0.8987 support turned resistance will argue that correction from 0.9223 has completed, after...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2700; (P) 1.2719; (R1) 1.2749; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral as sideway trading continues. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.2680 support will turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Euro weakness remains name of the game in the wake of French President Macron’s snap election call as his coalition got whacked in EU elections. ECB comments played a role as well. EUR/USD set a new sell-off low around 1.0730 from starting levels near 1.0775....
Will Bank of Japan Hint at a July Hike?
Investors see decent chance for BoJ hike in July But struggling economy complicates the policy outlook Report on bond buying sets the hawkish bar even higher The Bank decides on Friday at 03:00 GMT Obstacles in the road for the next BoJ hike At its latest gathering on...
USD/JPY: Remains Constructive and Eyes US Inflation and Fed Verdict for Fresh Direction Signals
USDJPY remains constructive and probing above 157 barrier (the upper borderline of triangular consolidation and Fibo 61.8% of 160.19/151.85 bear-leg), but ranges are narrowing ahead of key releases this week – US inflation report and Fed rate decision, both due on...
US: Small Business Optimism Index Improves in May
NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.8 points to 90.5 in May, beating market expectations for a flat reading of 89.7. Half of the ten subcomponents improved on the month, three deteriorated, and two remained unchanged. The improving categories included...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0739; (P) 1.0760; (R1) 1.0787; More…. EUR/USD’s fall from 1.0915 is in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside. This decline is seen as another falling leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1274. Further decline should be seen to retest...
Euro’s Brief Respite Ends, Renewed Selloff Driven by French Political Woes
Euro continues to be under significant pressure due to increasing political uncertainty in France. President Emmanuel Macron’s call for a snap election has heightened fiscal consolidation risks, with Moody’s describing this development as “credit negative.” Investor...
EURJPY Trades Sideways Ahead of Key Events
EURJPY is hovering below the recent 171.56 high Yen failed to benefit from Monday’s euro weakness Momentum indicators point to weakening bullish pressure EURJPY is trading sideways today as the yen has failed to benefit from the euro’s weakness following Sunday’s...
ECB’s Lane: Not pre-committing to a particular rate path
In a speech today, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane noted that the central bank’s baseline projections reflect the market yield curve and anticipate “a set of rate cuts” in 2024 and 2025. He noted that with a clearly restrictive deposit facility rate of 3.75%, ECB...
Key Factors Influencing AUDUSD: Analysis and Trading Scenarios
Bearish scenario: Sell below 0.6597 with TP1: 0.6587, TP2: 0.6579, and TP3: 0.6558, with an S.L. above 0.6611 or at least 1% of account capital. Bullish scenario: Buy above 0.6611 with TP1: 0.6626 and TP2: 0.6646, with an S.L. below 0.6597 or at least 1% of account...
Gold: Bears Taking a Breather ahead of US CPI Data – FOMC Policy Decision
Gold price edged lower in early trading on Tuesday, following Monday’s limited consolidation of nearly 4% drop on Friday. Near-term outlook remains bearishly aligned after a massive loss last Friday, sparked by strong US jobs data and reports that China’s central bank...
GBP/USD Shrugs as UK Unemployment Rises, GDP Next
The British pound is drifting on Tuesday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2720 in the European session at the time of writing, down 0.08% on the day. The UK released the May employment report earlier today. Next up is GDP on Wednesday, with a market estimate of 0% m/m for...
Brent Crude Oil Stabilises Around 81.50 USD Amid Demand Optimism
Brent crude oil is holding steady at 81.50 USD per barrel on Tuesday, following a significant surge of over 2.5% the previous day. The price increase was driven by optimistic market expectations about fuel demand this coming summer and news that the US government is...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 199.22; (P) 199.64; (R1) 200.33; More… GBP/JPY is staying in range below 200.72 and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, break of 197.28 will strengthen the case that rise from 191.34 has completed. Intraday bias will be back on the...
ECB’s Villeroy downplays month-to-month inflation noises
ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau highlighted today at a conference that month-to-month inflation data will be volatile due to base effects, particularly related to energy prices. He cautioned that this “noise” in the data is not very...
FX option expiries for 11 June 10am New York cut
There aren't any major expiries to take note of on the day. That speaks to the lack of interest in price levels for today mostly. The main events in markets will only kick off tomorrow, so there is not much appetite to really chase anything until then. And that is...
Aussie Down on Risk Sentiment and Business Confidence, Yen Also Soft
Australian Dollar is trading broadly lower today, primarily due to selloff in stocks in Hong Kong and China as markets reopened after holiday. This downward pressure is compounded by the decline in Australian business confidence, which turned negative. ANZ has become...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 198.59; (P) 199.20; (R1) 200.01; More… Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 197.28 will strengthen the case that rise from 191.34 has completed. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 195.02...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0768; (P) 1.0835; (R1) 1.0870; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the downside at this point. Rebound from 1.0601 might have completed at 1.0915 already. Fall from there could be another falling leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1274....
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2688; (P) 1.2750; (R1) 1.2784; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral at this point and outlook is unchanged. . Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.2680 support will turn bias back to the downside for 55 D...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8906; (P) 0.8940; (R1) 0.8998; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, firm break of 0.8987 support turned resistance will argue that correction from 0.9223 has completed, after drawing support from...
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets Elections for the European Parliament this time didn’t pass unnoticed on European markets. They clearly left investors with quite a degree of unease. The ‘gamble’ of French President Macron to call snap elections in an attempt to block the ascent of the...
BoE Stays Quiet But Data Could Speak Volumes
BoE stuck between strong US data and the ECB rate cut Labour market data could support August rate cut expectations All eyes on average earnings growth Could the pound maintain its recent gains? BoE remains on the sidelines While the ECB announced its first rate cut...
Fed Pivot Less Likely After Strong NFP, Focus on CPI Report and Dot Plot
A dovish pivot by the Fed is looking less likely at the June meeting Will Fed officials flag two or just one rate cut after strong jobs data? CPI report will also be crucial on Wednesday (12:30 GMT) Statement due at 18:00 GMT will be followed by press conference at...
US Indices: Something for Optimists
The US indices, S&P500 and Nasdaq100, closed Wednesday at record highs, taking a decisive step up, adding over 1.1% and 2%, respectively. The Dow Jones index lagged, adding just 0.25% for the day and is 3% off all-time highs. The Nasdaq-100 and S&P500...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.57; (P) 156.33; (R1) 157.52; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 157.70 will resume the whole rise from 151.86 and target 160.20 high. Nevertheless, break of 154.53 will turn bias to the downside...
Euro Staying Pressured Under Pressure Amid Yield Volatility
As US session begins, Euro continues to face significant downward pressure, largely influenced by political developments in France. The call for a snap election following the far-right National Rally party’s gains in the EU election has sparked concerns among...
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 169.14; (P) 169.79; (R1) 170.52; More… Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 168.01 support will strengthen the case that rise from 164.31 has completed at 170.78 already. Intraday bias will be back on the...
EUR/AUD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6348; (P) 1.6384; (R1) 1.6458; More… EUR/AUD retreated sharply after edging higher to 1.6418 ans intraday bias remains neutral. . On the downside, firm break of 1.6211 support will resume the whole decline from 1.6742, as the third leg of the...
Euro Falls to Four-Week Low: Politicians to Blame
EUR/USD plummeted below 1.0800 and is currently hovering around 1.0796 on Monday morning. This development came amid heightened political tensions in France. President Emmanuel Macron called for early elections on Sunday in the wake of his party’s crushing defeat and...
ECB’s Nagel urges caution on rate cuts
In a speech today, ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel stressed the importance of caution in making further interest rate cuts, citing ongoing economic uncertainty and persistent inflation pressures. Nagel remarked, “I don’t see us on a mountain top from which...
US Dollar Index: Continues to Fly on Growing Wxpectations
Dollar continues to fly on growing expectations that the Fed will stay in higher for longer rate mode The dollar index extends strong rally on Monday, after advancing 0.8% on Friday and started the week with gap higher opening. Upbeat May NFP numbers on Friday added...
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9670; (P) 0.9693; (R1) 0.9708; More…. EUR/CHF’s fall from 0.9928 resumed today and intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.9563 support. Decisive break there will argue that whole rise from 0.9252 has completed, and bring deeper fall to 61.8%...
Eurozone Sentix rises to 0.3, recovery continues but lacks momentum
In June, Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence improved to 0.3 from -3.6, exceeding the expected -1.9. This marks the eighth consecutive monthly increase and the highest reading since February 2022. Current Situation Index also rose for the eighth month in a row,...
Headwinds Knocked Down Bitcoin & Ethereum
Market picture The crypto market is losing about 4.5% from its peak on Friday, having reversed to the downside after news positive for the dollar. Another batch of labour market figures well above expectations has raised doubts that the Fed will soon follow the ECB...
Gold Could Be Poised for a Continuation Lower
Gold violates bullish structure; prints a head and shoulders pattern Short-term risk is negative; confirmation signal awaited below 2,285 Gold has stabilized near May’s floor of 2,285 after losing more than 3.0% on Friday to mark its biggest daily loss in two years....
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8481; (P) 0.8501; (R1) 0.8512; More… EUR/GBP’s strong break of 0.8491 support confirms resumption of larger down trend. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.8376 projection level next. On the upside, break of 0.8539 resistance is needed to...
FX option expiries for 10 June 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0775 level. It's not one that holds any technical significance, so I wouldn't attach too much importance to the expiry level. The pair opened today with a gap lower...
Euro Tumbles Amid Political Uncertainty, Market Eyes FOMC Dot Plot and US CPI This Week
In holiday-thinned Asian trading today, Euro’s sharp decline was the focal point. Investors’ reaction to European Parliament election results was overwhelmingly negative. The far-right’s significant gains have sparked concerns, driving the common currency through key...
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast – Action Forex
EUR/USD: Who Controls the Financial Market It is clear that interest rates rule the markets, not only in terms of actual changes but also regarding expectations about the timing and magnitude of future changes. From spring 2022 to mid-2023, the focus was on raising...
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: G7 Central Banks Ease into Summer with Rate Cuts
Summary United States: July Cut Bites the Dust; September Hanging on Edge of Its Seat The strong job gain and rebound in average hourly earnings in May reaffirm our expectation that a rate cut remains some time away and is increasingly dependent on a few slower...
The Weekly Bottom Line: Labor Market Resilience Highlights Global Policy Rate Divergence
U.S. Highlights The U.S. economy added 272k jobs in May, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.0%. The ISM Purchasing Managers’ Indexes showed manufacturing activity continued to contract in May, while services activity returned to growth. Central banks in Canada...
Summary 6/10 – 6/14
Monday, Jun 10, 2024 Tuesday, Jun 11, 2024 Wednesday, Jun 12, 2024 Thursday, Jun 13, 2024 Friday, Jun 14, 2024 The post Summary 6/10 – 6/14 appeared first on Action Forex.
Market Awaits NFP Data: Euro/Dollar Consolidates
At the end of the week, the US dollar is hovering around an eight-week low against the euro, but trading activity remains subdued. Everyone is conserving energy ahead of this evening’s May employment data from the US. These reports are expected to provide more insight...
Crypto Market Quiet – Action Forex
Market picture The crypto market capitalisation remained almost unchanged overnight at $2.63 trillion, showing a sharp decline in volatility. Bitcoin settled near the $71K level (+0.2%), while Ethereum settled near $3800 (-0.9 %). Prices of top altcoins changed...
GOLD (XAUUSD) Elliott Wave: Forecasting the Path
Hello fellow traders. In this technical article we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of GOLD (XAUUSD) , published in members area of the website. As our members know, GOLD ended cycle from the 2314.99 low as 5 waves structure. The commodity is...
US NFP grows 272k, average hourly earnings rises 0.4% mom
US non-farm payroll employment grew 272k in May, well above expectation of 180k. That’s also higher than the average monthly gain of 232k over the prior 12 months. Unemployment rate ticked up from 3.9% to 4.0%, above expectation of 3.9%. Labor force participation rate...
Canada’s Unemployment Rate Continued to Rise in May, as Job Gains Lag Population Growth
The Canadian labour market geared down from its April hiring surge, adding a modest 27k new positions in May. The gain was entirely in part-time jobs (+62k), while full-time employment declined (-36k). The unemployment rate continued its upward trend in May. The...
US: Payrolls Surge in May, While Unemployment Rate Ticks Up to 28-month High of 4.0%
Non-farm employment surged by 272k in May, well ahead of the consensus forecast calling for a more moderate gain of 185k. Job gains in the two prior months were revised slightly lower, subtracting a combined 15k from the previously reported figures. Private payrolls...
Fed Set to Hold Rates as Inflation and Other Indicators Show Mixed Signals
Wednesday’s U.S. Consumer Price Index data and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision will be in focus after the Bank of Canada and European Central Bank cut rates the week before. The Fed is not expected to follow suit—at least not right now. We expect U.S. CPI...
Weekly Focus – ECB in No Rush to Commit to Further Ccuts
The ECB delivered the widely anticipated first 25bp rate cut but kept its forward-looking guidance vague. Lagarde noted there was a ‘strong likelihood’ the ECB would dial back the restrictiveness of their monetary policy going forward but was not ready to pre-commit...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8874; (P) 0.8911; (R1) 0.8930; More…. USD/CHF recovers after another take on 0.8883 fibonacci level but stays below 0.8987 support turned resistance. Intraday bias stays neutral first. Strong rebound from current level, followed by firm break of...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.19; (P) 155.81; (R1) 156.26; More…. USD/JPY rebounds notably in early US session but stays below 157.70 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 157.70 will resume the whole rise from 151.86 and target 160.20...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Report – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2766; (P) 1.2788; (R1) 1.2812; More….. GBP/USD dips notably in early US session but stays above 1.2693 support. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.2693 will turn bias back to...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0867; (P) 1.0884; (R1) 1.0907; More… EUR/USD dips notably in early US session but stays above 1.0788 support. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.0788 will argue that rebound...
Strong NFP Report Propels Dollar and Drags Risk Sentiment
Dollar rebounds broadly in early US session following stronger-than-expected employment data. Despite a slight uptick in unemployment rate, robust headline job growth and wage increases highlighted the US job market’s continued tightness. This suggests that Fed should...
Canada employment grows 26.7, unemployment rate up to 6.2%
Canada’s employment grew 26.7k in May slightly above expectation of 24.8k. Part-time employment rose 62k while full-time jobs fell -36k. Unemployment rate ticked up from 6.1% to 6.2%, matched expectations. Average hourly wages increased 5.1% yoy, up from April’s 4.7%...
EURUSD Struggles to Close Above 1.0900
EURUSD constrained below May’s barrier of 1.0894 Technical signals reflect uncertainty Sellers could take control below 1.0830 Despite a false bullish breakout to 1.0915 earlier this week, EURUSD has been struggling to close above May’s bar of 1.0894. From a technical...
SILVER (XAGUSD) Buying the Dips at the Blue Box Area
Hello fellow traders. In this technical article, we’re going to take a look into the Elliott Wave charts of SILVER (XAGUSD), exclusively presented in the members’ area of our website. As our members know SILVER has recently made pull back that made clear 3 waves down...
USD/JPY Steady Despite Soft Household Spending
The Japanese yen is calm on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 155.50, down 0.06% on the day at the time of writing. Japan’s household spending slips Japan’s economic activity has been sluggish and household spending, a key driver of economic...
Week Ahead – Fed and BoJ Decide on Monetary Policy
US CPI data and Fed to determine the dollar’s fate Will the BoJ signal that another rate hike is looming? Pound traders await UK employment and GDP numbers RBA hike bets shrink ahead of AU jobs and China CPI data Mind the dots With US inflation resuming its downtrend...
Canadian Dollar Eyes Can., US Job Data
The Canadian dollar has had a relatively quiet week and has ticked higher on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3683, up 0.10%. We could see stronger movement from the pair in the North American session, when both the US and Canada release the...
USD/CHF: At a Multi-Week Low and Cracking Key Supports ahead US Jobs Data
USDCHF stands at the back foot and hit new multi-week low early Friday, as markets await release of US jobs report for May. Recent bear-leg from 0.9158 (May 24 lower top) has found solid support at 0.8893/83 zone (200DMA / Fibo 38.2% of 0.8332/0.9224 rally) which...
USDCHF Posts More Than 2-month Low
USDCHF finds strong obstacle at 200-day SMA MACD endorses negative momentum; RSI near oversold region USDCHF plunged to a new more than two-month low of 0.8879 today but has found support at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) in the 0.8895 area. The pair is...
Euro Shrugs as ECB Lowers Rates to 3.75%
The euro is drifting on Friday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0892 in the European session, up 0.04% on the day. We could see some movement from the euro in the North American session, with the release of US nonfarm payrolls. ECB cuts, but no commitments to continue The ECB...
FX option expiries for 7 June 10am New York cut
There are a few to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.Again, they are for EUR/USD and layered between 1.0875 through to 1.0900. Given that markets are largely waiting on the US jobs report later, the expiries here will help to act as goalposts in keeping...
Sluggish Forex Markets on Hold for Direction from US Non-Farm Payrolls
Forex markets remain directionless as the week’s highly anticipated central bank activities. The rate cuts by both BoC and ECB failed to provide the expected catalysts for significant currency movements. Neither Canadian Dollar nor Euro managed to break out of their...
Crypto Takes its Time – Action Forex
Market picture The cryptocurrency market decided to storm the local highs set almost two months ago. However, the growth has not yet developed, and some players rushed to fix profits quickly despite the positive sentiment in the US stock markets. Bitcoin is trading...
ETHUSD Consolidates as Advance Pauses
ETHUSD posts fresh 2-month high following ETF approval But fails to extend its rally as bulls lift foot off the gas Momentum indicators ease from overbought conditions ETHUSD (Ethereum) had been on the rise after claiming the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) in...
GBP/USD: Extended Consolidation Likely to Precede Fresh Push Higher
Cable is consolidating under new multi-week high (1.2817), with near-term action underpinned by rising 10DMA (1.2758) and looking for fresh push higher and attack at 2024 high (1.2893). Daily moving averages in full bullish configuration and with multiple bull-crosses...
US initial jobless claims rises to 229k vs exp 215k
US initial jobless claims rose 8k to 229k in the week ending May 25, above expectation of 215k. Four-week moving average of initial claims fell -750 to 222k. Continuing claims rose 2k to 1792k in the week ending May 25. Four-week moving average of continuing claims...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.01; (P) 155.75; (R1) 156.86; More…. No change in USD/JPY’s outlook as range trading continues. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 157.70 resistance holds. Fall from there is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20. On...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8901; (P) 0.8925; (R1) 0.8959; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. Strong rebound from current level, followed by break of 0.8987 support turned resistance, will suggest that correction from 0.9223 has...
ECB Review: Cutting and Keeping
Today, the ECB decided to cut its three main policy rates by 25bp, which leaves the key policy rate at 3.75%. This cut follows a 9-month period with unchanged policy rates on the back of the rapid hiking cycle since mid-2022. The rate cut was widely expected and thus...
US Dollar Index Needs to Hold Above 104
US dollar index pauses downleg near important support trendline Technical signals are uncertain; sellers wait below 104 The US dollar index is trading at an attractive level around the protective trendline that joins the lows from December 2023 and March 2024 near...
European Central Bank Kicks Off Its Rate Cut Cycle
Summary The European Central Bank (ECB) today joined the growing group of advanced economy central banks that have begun their monetary easing cycles, lowering its Deposit Rate by 25 bps to 3.75%. ECB policymakers cited the past drop of inflation and the improving...
ECB Starts Cuts Earlier and May Move Faster Than Fed
The European Central Bank cut all three of its key interest rates by 25 points, which is in line with market expectations. The ECB has kept rates unchanged for the past nine months and tightened policy from July 2022 to September 2023, raising rates by a combined 450...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets After the Swiss National Bank (March), the Swedish Riksbank (May) and the Bank of Canada (yesterday), the ECB today is the next in line among central banks from developed economies to reduce policy restriction. It cut its policy rates by 25bps, bringing the...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0851; (P) 1.0872; (R1) 1.0889; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Further rally is expected as long as 1.0788 support holds. Break of 1.0915 will resume the rally from 1.0601 to 61.8% projection of 1.0601 to...
Euro Holds Steady After ECB Rate Cut
Following ECB’s decision to lower interest rates by 25 bps, a move that aligned with market expectations, Euro remained relatively steady within its near term trading range. ECB President Christine Lagarde, speaking at the post-meeting press conference, deliberately...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2763; (P) 1.2779; (R1) 1.2803; More….. Outlook in GBP/USD remains unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral. As long as 1.2693 support holds, further rally is in favor. Above 1.2816 will resume the rally from 1.2298 to 1.2892 resistance next. On...
Monetary policy decisions – Action Forex
The Governing Council today decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. Based on an updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission, it is now appropriate to...
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 168.69; (P) 169.36; (R1) 170.35; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Current development suggests that rebound from 164.31 has completed at 170.81. Risk will now stay on the downside as long as 170.87 resistance holds....
EUR/USD: Bulls Hold Grip Ahead of Key Event – ECB Policy Decision
The Euro edged higher on Thursday morning and partially reversed a two-day pullback from new multi-week high (1.0915), but today’s action was so far choppy and lacking direction, as traders await the verdict from the ECB later today. The European Central Bank...
EURGBP Tests a Key Support Area
EURGBP edges higher today ahead of crucial ECB meeting Strong downside pressure in place despite UK elections being in the spotlight Momentum indicators are mostly mixed at this juncture EURGBP is trading higher today, a tad above its lowest level since August 2022,...
GER 40 Index in Positive Mood Ahead of ECB Rate Decision
German 40 index strives to exit bearish formation before a widely expected rate cut Short-term risk skewed to the upside, but confirmation signal could come above 18,672 The German 40 index started Thursday’s session on a positive note, aiming to extend its latest...
Gold Prices Reach 2368 USD Amid Speculation of Fed Rate Cuts
Gold prices climbed to 2368 USD per troy ounce on Thursday, continuing the upward momentum for the second session. This surge comes as market expectations adjust to the likelihood of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, fuelled by recent employment data....
Eurozone retail sales down -0.5% mom in Apr, EU falls -0.6% mom
Eurozone retail sales volume fell -0.5% mom in April, worse than expectation of -0.2% mom. Sales volume decreased for food, drinks, tobacco by 0.5%, for non-food products (except automotive fuel) by 0.1%, and for automotive fuel in specialised stores by 2.2%. EU...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 198.08; (P) 198.92; (R1) 200.48; More…. Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Current development suggests that rise from 191.34 has completed at 200.72 after rejection by 200.53. On the downside, break of 197.18 will resume the...
FX option expiries for 6 June 10am New York cut
There are a few to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.Once again, they are for EUR/USD and this time layered at 1.0850-60 on the bottom end and at the 1.0900 level at the top end. The expiries are likely to keep price action more contained, all before we...
Post-BoC Selloff Short-Lived for Canadian Dollar, Euro Eyes Upcoming ECB Meeting
Canadian Dollar remains the weakest performer for the week at this point. Yet, losses is so far contained, with the recovery after the brief selloff following BoC’s rate cut overnight. While further cuts are anticipated within the year, the likelihood of another...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2737; (P) 1.2777; (R1) 1.2810; More….. Range trading continues in GBP/USD and intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. Further rise is in favor as long as 1.2693 support holds. Above 1.2816 will resume the rally from 1.2298 to 1.2892 resistance...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.13; (P) 155.31; (R1) 156.07; More…. Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 157.70 resistance holds. Fall from there is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20. On...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8867; (P) 0.8919; (R1) 0.8954; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF is turned neutral with 4H MACD crossed above signal line. Strong rebound from current level, followed by break of 0.8987 support turned resistance, will suggest that correction from...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0853; (P) 1.0885; (R1) 1.0910; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment, as consolidation continues below 1.0915. Further rally is expected as long as 1.0788 support holds. Break of 1.0915 will resume the rally from 1.0601 to...
Bank of Canada reduces policy rate by 25 basis points
The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 4¾%, with the Bank Rate at 5% and the deposit rate at 4¾%. The Bank is continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization. The global economy grew by about 3% in the first quarter of 2024, broadly...
US ISM services rises to 53.8, activity/production surges
US ISM Services PMI jumped from 49.4 to 53.8 in May, well above expectation of 51.0. Looking at some details, business activity/production rose sharply from 50.9 to 61.2, highest since November 2022. New orders rose from 52.2. to 54.1. Employment rose from 45.9 to...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets The US 10-yr yield tested 4.31% support after a small miss in May ADP employment change. The US economy added 152k jobs (vs 175k expected) with April figures marginally downwardly revised to 188k (from 192k). The deviation wasn’t big enough to trigger a strong...
Gold: Moonshot to $2800 or Dive Below $2000?
Gold volatility has fallen markedly in recent days as gold traders consider their next move, while many commodities are in a corrective decline. In May, the gold price climbed towards $2450, above the peaks of April, but failed to consolidate near all-time highs....
Could Stronger US Data Force a Fed Rate Cut?
Markets crave weaker US data to support their rate cut expectations Strong data this week could cause an acute market reaction The Fed might find it easier to act if financial stability is under threat The key question in the market participants’ minds is when the Fed...
Bank of Canada Cuts Its Policy Rate to 4.75%!
The Bank of Canada cut the overnight rate to 4.75% (from 5.0%), while stating that it will continue with Quantitative Tightening (QT). The Bank spoke confidently about the economy, stating “economic growth resumed in the first quarter of 2024 after stalling in the...
BoC cuts rate to 4.75%, signals confidence in inflation control
BoC cuts overnight rate by 25 bps to 4.75%, as anticipated. The central bank stated that recent data has bolstered confidence that inflation will continue to move towards 2% target, despite ongoing risks to the inflation outlook. BoC emphasized its close monitoring of...
AUDCAD Consolidates Above Key Support Zone
AUDCAD is trading sideways, above upside channel RSI and MACD corroborate the lack of momentum A break above 0.9125 could shift the bias to the upside A dip below 0.9000 may only confirm a larger correction AUDCAD has been trading in a sideways manner since May 15,...
Subdued Trading Continues as Markets Shrug US ADP Disappointment
Trading in the forex markets is subdued US session gets underway, with weaker-than-expected U.S. ADP private job data failing to stir significant movement in the Dollar. Despite the slowdown in job gains and pay growth, the job market remains robust. US futures are...
US ADP employment roses 152k, below expectation 175k
US ADP private employment grew 152k in May, below expectation of 175k increase. By sector, goods-producing jobs rose 3k while services-providing jobs rose 149k. By establishment size, small companies lose -10k jobs. Medium companies added 79k while large companies...
EUR/USD to Hold Below 1.09 Given the Risk of Euro Weakness
Markets The three-day Treasury rally morphed into a four-day advance yesterday. The common theme is some worry on (US) growth momentum. It all started last Thursday with downward revisions to Q1 GDP data (especially consumption). Slightly disappointing spending data...
AUD/USD and NZD/USD Could Continue Higher
AUD/USD is correcting gains from the 0.6700 zone. NZD/USD is showing positive signs and might attempt a fresh increase above 0.6200. Important Takeaways for AUD USD and NZD USD Analysis Today The Aussie Dollar started a downside correction from 0.6700 against the US...
USDJPY Recoups Losses After Bounce Off Rising Line
USDJPY heads north with first resistance at 20-day SMA RSI and Stochastics confirm upside movement USDJPY has reversed back up again after the strong rebound off the medium-term uptrend line and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), meeting the 23.6% Fibonacci...
NZDUSD Extends Recovery to Fresh Highs
NZDUSD posts an almost 3-month high on Tuesday But the risk of an impending correction increases Oscillators approach overbought conditions NZDUSD has been in an aggressive uptrend following its 2024 bottom of 0.5851 in mid-April. On Tuesday, the pair stormed to its...
XAU/USD: Key Economic Events This Week Eyed for Fresh Direction Signals
Gold price edges higher early Wednesday, bouncing off the floor of near term range and remaining without clear direction as markets await fresh signals from key economic events this week. Conflicting technical indicators on daily chart contribute to near term sideways...
Eurozone PPI down -1.0% mom, -5.7% yoy in Apr
Eurozone PPI fell -1.0% mom in April, below expectation of -0.5% mom. Over the 12-month period, PPI fell -5.7% yoy, below expectation -5.1% yoy. For the month, industrial producer prices increased by 0.3% for intermediate goods, 0.2% for capital goods, 0.2% for...
UK PMI services finalized at 52.9, expansion slows, price pressures ease
The latest PMI data from the UK indicates a deceleration in the service sector for May, with the Services PMI dropping to 52.9 from April’s 55.0, marking the slowest growth rate since November. The Composite PMI, which aggregates both services and manufacturing, also...
Eurozone PMI composite finalized at 52.2, a 12-month high
Eurozone PMI Services was finalized at 53.2 in May, slightly down from April’s 53.3. PMI Composite was finalized at 52.2, up from prior month’s 51.7, a 12-month high. Also, business confidence surged to 27-month high. Inflation rates cooled but remained above...
FX option expiries for 5 June 10am New York cut
There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD, layered between 1.0855 through to 1.0900 on the day. The expiries there are likely to keep price action more contained, before we get to the US ADP employment...
Weak Loonie Anticipates BoC, Struggling Dollar Seeks Support from ADP and ISM Services
Forex trading in Asian session today was relatively muted, with market participants holding off on major moves in anticipation of impending key events. The spotlight is on BoC, with traders eagerly awaiting its rate decision. There is considerable speculation on...
GBPUSD Surges to Fresh 2-Month High
GBPUSD advances to its highest level since March 13 But the advance starts to look overstretched Momentum indicators approach overbought conditions GBPUSD has been in a steady recovery following its bounce off the 2024 bottom of 1.2298, with the price violating both...
Swiss Franc Edges Higher as Inflation Holds at 1.4%
The Swiss franc is in positive territory on Tuesday. USD/CHF is trading at 0.8935 in the European session, down 0.24% on the day. The Swissie has posted its strongest rally of the year, with gains of 2% since May 29th and is trading at its highest level since March...
Ethereum’s Bull Pennant Needs Confirmation
Market picture The cryptocurrency market loses just over 0.5% in 24 hours, to $2.56 trillion. The moderate pressure is due to another failed attempt by Bitcoin to consolidate above $70K, which is now retreating 0.2%. Ethereum has pulled back 1.8% in the same time...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8926 (P) 0.8983; (R1) 0.9016; More…. USD/CHF accelerates to as low as 0.8921 so far today, touching 100% projection of 0.9223 to 0.8987 from 0.9157 at 0.8921. There is no sign of bottoming yet and intraday bias stays on the downside. Break of...
Japanese Yen Strengthens Unexpectedly Against US Dollar
The USD/JPY pair unexpectedly declined last night due to a weakening US dollar. Currently, it is hovering around 156.33. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki highlighted the government’s recent interventions to support the yen, significantly impacting the market....
WTI Tumbles Below Key Support of 76.50
WTI crude oil collapses, breaks key zone RSI and MACD point to further declines Even if the price rebounds, the bears may recharge A break above 80.90 could shift the outlook to positive WTI crude oil fell sharply yesterday, breaking below the key support (now turned...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.53; (P) 156.50; (R1) 157.06; More…. Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the downside at this point. Rebound from 151.86 should have completed with three waves up to 157.70. Fall from there is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Markets remained stuck in yesterday’s (US) trading mode in absence of important EMU eco data or ECB talk (silent period ahead of Thursday’s meeting). That means a bid for core bonds as the (US) growth part of the equation enters the spotlight. Investors...
Dollar Traders Lock Gaze on NFP Report
Fed sticks to ‘higher for longer’ mentality PMIs pose downside risks to nonfarm payrolls But point to sticky wage growth The data comes out on Friday, at 12:30 GMT US inflation slows but Fed signals patience Although the latest CPI data revealed that inflation in the...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0854; (P) 1.0879; (R1) 1.0931; More…. Further rally is still expected in EUR/USD despite current retreat. Rise from 1.0601 should target 61.8% projection of 1.0601 to 1.0894 from 1.0788 at 1.0969. However, break of 1.0788 will turn intraday bias...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2732; (P) 1.2770; (R1) 1.2847; More….. Further rally is expected in GBP/USD with 1.2693 support intact, despite current retreat. Rise from 1.2298 should target 1.2892 resistance. However, break of 1.2693 will turn bias back to the downside for...
Yen and Swiss Franc Skyrocket Amid Lower Treasury Yields and Market Cautiousness
Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc are seeing significant upward momentum today. As news flow has been very slow, these safe-have currencies’ are likely partly supported by the extended decline in benchmark treasury yields across the US and Europe. This movement also...
Oil Probably Setting Up for a Repeat of 2020 or 2014
In the middle of last week, WTI crude bounced off resistance in the form of the 200-day moving average and moved closer towards the lower end of the May trading range. Oil is also trading below its 50-day average, which is pointing downwards. All of this is evidence...
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9739; (P) 0.9772; (R1) 0.9802; More…. EUR/CHF’s fall from 0.9928 resumed after brief recovery and intraday bias is back on the downside. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 0.9765) will pave the way to 38.2% retracement of 0.9252 to 0.9928 at...
EUR/AUD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6252; (P) 1.6301; (R1) 1.6347; More…. No change in EUR/AUD’s outlook as sideway trading continues in range of 1.6211/6403. On the downside, firm break of 1.6211 support will resume the whole decline from 1.6742, as the third leg of the correction...
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8504; (P) 0.8520; (R1) 0.8530; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. Further decline is expected as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.8550) holds. Decisive break of 0.8491/7 will resume larger down trend to 0.8376...
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 169.66; (P) 170.28; (R1) 170.83; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is turned neutral again with current retreat. Above 170.87 will resume the rally from 164.01 to retest 171.58 high. ON the downside, break break of 169.05 support should confirm short...
AUD/USD Analysis: US Dollar Rebounds from Decline
Yesterday, the PMI Manufacturing indices for several countries were published. The news turned out to be disappointing for the US – according to ForexFactory: → Final Manufacturing PMI: actual = 51.3; expected = 50.9; previous value = 50.9; → ISM Manufacturing PMI:...
WTI Outlook: Oil Extends Steep Fall on Growing Demand Concerns
WTI oil price remains in a steep fall for the fifth consecutive day, losing over 1% and hitting new four-month low in early Tuesday’s trading, after 3.8% drop on Monday (the biggest daily fall since Nov 16). The sentiment soured on growing concerns about weakening US...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 199.19; (P) 199.92; (R1) 200.62; More…. Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 198.73 support will indicate rejection by 200.53 high, and short term topping at 200.72. Bias will be back on the downside for...
FX option expiries for 4 June 10am New York cut
There aren't any significant major expiries to take note of for today. But if anything else, just be wary of some modest-sized ones for EUR/USD at the 1.0890-00 level. That could help to lock price action a bit more in European morning trade, before we get to US...
Dollar’s Decline Sharpens Against European Majors, Yen Sees Rebound
Dollar weakened broadly overnight, particularly against European majors, following disappointing US manufacturing data that also pressured benchmark Treasury yields lower. This data not only pushed benchmark Treasury yields lower but also triggered the greenback’s...
WTI Oil Price Unchanged After OPEC+ Meeting
The OPEC+ meeting over the weekend did not have a substantial impact on the price of crude oil. As the chart shows, WTI oil opened today at $76.72 per barrel, while on Friday it closed at $76.57 – indicating that the decision made by oil producers is ambiguous. The...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.77; (P) 157.07; (R1) 157.58; More…. USD/JPY dips mildly today but stays in range of 156.36/157.70. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, decisive break of 156.36 minor support will confirm short term topping at 157.70,...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8995 (P) 0.9032; (R1) 0.9061; More…. No change in USD/CHF’s outlook and intraday bias stays on the downside for 0.8987 support. Firm break there will resume whole fall from 0.9223 and target 100% projection of 0.9223 to 0.8987 from 0.9157 at...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2706; (P) 1.2736; (R1) 1.2772; More…. GBP/USD is stay in consolidation from 1.2799 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise is expected as long as 1.2670 support holds. Above 1.2799 will resume the rally from 1.2298 and target 1.2892...
US ISM manufacturing falls to 48.7, corresponds to 1.7% annualized GDP Growth
US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell from 49.2 to 48.7 in May, below expectation of 49.8. Looking at some details, new orders fell from 49.1 to 45.4. Production fell from 51.3 to 50.2. Employment rose from 48.6 to 51.1. Prices fell from 60.9 to 57.0. ISM said: “The past...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets On Friday a divergent narrative of in line, rather soft US price deflators and higher than expected EMU May CPI inflation caused US and EMU interest rate markets to part ways, with US yields declining and EMU interest rates still gaining a few bps. Today US...
US: Manufacturing Slips Further into Contraction in May
The ISM Manufacturing Index slipped further into contractionary territory in May, dipping to 48.7 from 49.2 in April, disappointing expectations for a marginal gain. The contraction also became more broad based, with 55% of manufacturing GDP having contracted in May,...
Bank of Canada Edges Closer to Rate Cut But Will it be in June?
Canadian inflation has been moving in right direction this year Investors have assigned a more than 80% probability of a June cut But will the BoC move before the Fed; decision is due Wednesday, 13:45 GMT The race to cut may be reaching the final hurdle As the race to...
June Flashlight for the FOMC Blackout Period
Summary The FOMC remained on hold for the sixth consecutive policy meeting on May 1 as elevated inflation and strong job growth earlier this year led policymakers to conclude that policy easing at that time would not be appropriate. Data released since the last...
ECB to Make the First Move
ECB meets on Thursday; a rate cut is expected Market will look for hints of back-to-back rate cuts A dovish rate cut could match expectations and push euro/dollar lower Decision will be announced on Thursday 12:15 GMT, press conference at 12:45 GMT A 25bps rate cut is...
AUD/USD: Bulls Regain Control After a Healthy Correction
AUDUSD stands at the front foot on Monday and extends advance into third straight day, pressuring pivotal barrier at 0.6680 (recent range ceiling). Fresh strength further improves near term outlook, boosted by positive signal from formation of a higher base at 0.6590...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0812; (P) 1.0847; (R1) 1.0883; More…. No change in EUR/USD’s outlook as range trading continues. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. On the upside, firm break of 1.0894 will resume whole rally from 1.0601, and target 61.8% projection of...
Yen Rises Slightly, Yet Struggles to Gain Strong Momentum
The forex markets are showing relatively limited movement today, remaining mostly within established ranges. Yen is having a slight uptick, supported by the dips in US and European benchmark treasury yields. But the Japanese currency’ gains are modest and insufficient...
Instrument of the Week (June 3—7): EURCAD Outlook
The EURCAD pair represents the exchange rate between the Euro and the Canadian Dollar and is a vital measure of the relative economic health of the Eurozone and Canada. The Euro value is influenced mainly by economic activities and monetary policies within the...
USD/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.77; (P) 157.07; (R1) 157.58; More…. Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, decisive break of 156.36 minor support will confirm short term topping at 157.70, on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Intraday...
EUR/USD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0812; (P) 1.0847; (R1) 1.0883; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as range trading continues below 1.0894. On the upside, firm break of 1.0894 will resume whole rally from 1.0601, and target 61.8% projection of 1.0601 to 1.0894 from...
Focus on EMU Side Turns to Thursday’s ECB Meeting
Markets US Treasuries closed near Friday’s best levels on slightly softer April spending figures and a slower (but in line with forecasts) core PCE deflator pace. Daily changes on the US yield curve ranged between -6 bps (5-yr) and -3 bps (30-yr). This contrasted with...
EURUSD Neutral in Short-Term But Still Bullish in Medium-Term
EURUSD rebounds off 1.0800 and 200-day SMA Trades within narrow range MACD and RSI lack direction EURUSD is currently moving sideways within a two-week consolidation area with upper boundary the 1.0895 resistance and lower boundary the 1.0800 round number. Looking...
UK PMI manufacturing finalized at 51.2, a solid revival
UK PMI Manufacturing index was finalized at 51.2 in May, up from April’s 49.1, marking the highest reading since July 2022. S&P Global noted that output increased across all main sub-sectors and size categories, and business optimism soared to a 27-month high. Rob...
Gold on a Slippery Slope
Gold tries to enter Ichimoku cloud Prices stand in short-term sideways move Momentum oscillators lose steam Gold prices are currently capped by the 20- and the 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs), remaining within the short-term consolidation area of 2,277 and 2,431....
EURCHF Declines Sharply from 14-Month High
EURCHF hits a fresh 14-month high of 0.9928 Before plunging towards the 50-day SMA Momentum indicators turn bearish EURCHF has been in a steady recovery since late December, attempting to erase its massive 2021-2023 downtrend. Last week, the pair surged to a fresh...
Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 47.3, a turning point?
Eurozone PMI Manufacturing index was finalized at 47.3 in May, up from April’s 45.7 and reaching a 14-month high. This improvement suggests a potential turning point for the manufacturing sector, which has been declining since April 2023. Country-specific data reveals...
FX option expiries for 3 June 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0870 level. But one can argue that the expiries from 1.0850-60 are also ones that can offer some stickiness when layered together. That is all likely to help limit...
Risk Sentiment Firm, Currencies Hold Steady, Anticipate Rate Cuts and Crucial Economic Data
Global markets started the week on a positive note, drawing momentum from the robust close last week in the US and buoyed further by slightly better than expected manufacturing data out of China. In Tokyo, stocks received additional support from comments by BoJ...
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast – Action Forex
EUR/USD: Awaiting a Turbulent Week Recall that Monday, 27 May was a holiday in the US. However, on Tuesday, dollar bulls took control, and the DXY Index started to rise, bolstered by a significant increase in the US Consumer Confidence Index (from 97.5 to 102.0...
Summary 6/3 – 6/7
Monday, Jun 3, 2024 Tuesday, Jun 4, 2024 Wednesday, Jun 5, 2024 Thursday, Jun 6, 2024 Friday, Jun 7, 2024 The post Summary 6/3 – 6/7 appeared first on Action Forex.
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Amid Higher Yields, Market Inflation Expectations Remain Stable
Summary United States: May-laise Markets digested a light lineup of economic data on the holiday-shortened week. The second look at first quarter GDP revealed an economy increasingly pressured by high interest rates as headline growth was revised lower. To that end,...
The Weekly Bottom Line: Bank of Canada in Focus
U.S. Highlights Revisions to economic growth in the first quarter featured a mark down to consumer spending. That theme continued in April, where a contraction in real personal consumption expenditures came as a confirmation that restrictive rates are working....
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, EUR/CHF might have formed a medium term at 0.9928 with last week’s steep decline. Risk will now stay mildly on the downside as long as 0.9928 resistance holds, in case of recovery. Break of 0.9768 and sustained...
EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/AUD stayed in consolidation above 1.6211 short term bottom last week. Initial bias stays neutral this week and more sideway trading could be seen. On the downside, firm break of 1.6211 support will resume the whole decline from 1.6742, as the third leg of the...
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/GBP breached 0.8491 key support last week but quickly recovered. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Further decline is expected as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.8553) holds. Decisive break of 0.8491/7 will resume larger down trend to 0.8376 projection level...
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
Despite dipping to 169.05 last week, EUR/JPY quickly recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Break of 170.78 will resume the rally from 164.01 to retest 171.58 high. On the downside, however, below 169.05 will bring deeper fall to 167.31 support. Firm...
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/JPY dipped to 198.73 last week after edging higher to 200.72. But it quickly recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, decisive break of 200.53/72 will confirm larger up trend resumption. On the downside, below 198.73 will turn bias to the...
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CAD gyrated in range of 1.3589/3742 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week. On the upside, break of 1.3742 resistance will revive the case that correction from 1.3845 has completed at 1.3589. Intraday bias will be back on the...
AUD/USD Weekly Report – Action Forex
AUD/USD stayed in sideway trading below 0.6713 last week and outlook is unchanged. Further rally is in favor with 0.6578 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.6361 to 0.6713 at 0.6579) intact. On the upside, firm break of 0.6713 will resume whole rise from 0.6361 to...
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CHF’s steep decline last week suggests that rebound from 0.8987 has completed at 0.9157. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 0.8987. Firm break there will resume the fall from 0.9223 to 100% projection of 0.9223 to 0.8987 from 0.9157 at 0.8921. On the...
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/USD edged higher to 1.2799 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week and more range trading could be seen. Further rise is expected as long as 1.2670 support holds. Above 1.2799 will resume the rally from 1.2298 and target...
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/JPY turned sideway after edging higher to 157.70 last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Decisive break of 156.36 will confirm short term topping at 157.70, on bearish divergence condition in 4 H MACD. Intraday bias will be back on the downside...
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/USD dipped to 1.0788 last week but quickly recovered. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 1.0894 will resume whole rally from 1.0601, and target 61.8% projection of 1.0601 to 1.0894 from 1.0788 at 1.0969. For now, risk will...
Swiss Franc Outperforms as Global Inflation Data Lack Lasting Impact on Forex
Inflation data were the key drivers in the forex markets last week, though they failed to produce any sustained movements across major currencies. Australian Dollar rallied following robust CPI figures, yet its gains were limited by the prevailing risk-off sentiment...
US PCE unchanged at 2.7% yoy in Apr, core PCE steady at 2.8% yoy
US PCE price index rose 0.3% mom in April, matched expectations. Core PCE price index (excluding food and energy) rose 0.2% mom, below expectation of 0.3% mom. Prices for goods increased 0.2% mom, and prices for services increased 0.3% mom. Food prices decreased -0.2...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0798; (P) 1.0822; (R1) 1.0855; More…. Focus is now on 1.0894 in EUR/USD with today’s strong bounce. Firm break there will resume whole rally from 1.0601, and target 61.8% projection of 1.0601 to 1.0894 from 1.0788 at 1.0969. For now, risk will...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2693; (P) 1.2721; (R1) 1.2760; More… GBP/USD is still bounded in range below 1.2799 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Further rise is expected as long as 1.2670 support holds. Above 1.2799 will resume the rally from 1.2298 and...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8995; (P) 0.9070; (R1) 0.9110; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside for the moment. Fall from 0.9157 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 0.9223. Deeper fall would be seen to 0.8987 support. Break will target 100%...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.23; (P) 156.96; (R1) 157.54; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first. Decisive break of 156.36 will confirm short term topping at 157.70, on bearish divergence condition in 4 H MACD. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for...
U.S. Consumer Spending and Income Slow in April
Personal income slowed to 0.3% month-on-month (m/m) in April, down from March’s 0.5% gain, but in line with market expectations . Accounting for inflation and taxes, real personal disposable income declined -0.1% m/m in April, reversing all of last month’s gain....
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets With the EMU May Flash CPI and the US (core) April PCE deflators on the agenda, global trading today again was fully focused on inflation and what it could mean for the start and/or the pace of monetary easing. EMU inflation surprised slightly to the upside....
Weekly Focus – Strong Euro Area Inflation in May
The main release this week was euro area inflation from May. Inflation rose to 2.6% y/y from 2.4% in April, which was above expectations of 2.5%. The increase in inflation was due to core inflation rising to 2.9% y/y from 2.7% on the back of very strong services...
Bank of Canada Set to Make the First Interest Rate Cut Next Week
All ducks appear to be in a row for the Bank of Canada to kick-start the policy easing cycle and lower the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% on Wednesday. The move follows cuts from the Swiss National Bank and the Riksbank (central bank of Sweden) in recent...
Week Ahead – ECB Rate Cut Might Get Eclipsed by BoC Surprise and NFP Report
ECB set to slash rates on Thursday, focus on forward guidance But will the BoC take the lead when it meets on Wednesday? US jobs report eyed on Friday as Fed unyielding on cuts OPEC+ might extend some output reductions into 2025 ECB poised to cut rates, but what’s...
Canada’s Economic Growth Rebound Misses Expectations in the First Quarter
The Canadian economy grew by 1.7% quarter/quarter annualized (q/q) in 2024 Q1, while 2023 Q4 was revised lower (+0.1% q/q from +1.0%). Furthermore, the flash estimate for April showed a +0.3% monthly increase. Stripping out external factors, final domestic demand came...
New Zealand Dollar Gains for Second Day Against US Dollar
The New Zealand dollar continues its ascent for the second consecutive session against the US dollar, resulting in the NZD/USD pair climbing to 0.6125. This increase is attributed to recent US economic data indicating slower-than-expected growth in Q1, suggesting the...
Euro Rallies on Inflation Surprise, US PCE Data Bolsters Stocks
Euro surges broadly today after Eurozone inflation data showed larger than expected re-acceleration in May. While this increase doesn’t shift the consensus that ECB will proceed with a rate cut next week, it significantly dampens any remaining expectations for a...
Canada’s GDP flat in Mar, up 0.4% qoq in Q1
Canada’s GDP was essentially unchanged in March, matched expectations. Both goods-producing and services-producing industries were essentially unchanged. Overall, 11 of 20 sectors increased in the month. Advance estimate suggests that GDP rose 0.3% mom in April....
ECB’s Panetta advocates for prompt and gradual policy adjustments
ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta suggested today that even multiple rate cuts would leave ECB’s monetary policy in a tight stance. Panetta emphasized the importance of managing these adjustments carefully to avoid macroeconomic instability, stating, “When...
USD/CHF Rate Falls Over 1% After SNB Chief’s Statements
As evidenced by the USD/CHF chart, yesterday one US dollar was worth 0.913 Swiss francs, but today it is already 0.903, indicating a rate drop of approximately 1%. According to MT Newswires, the franc’s strengthening is attributed to statements by Swiss National Bank...
USDCAD Meets Uptrend Line Again and Again
USDCAD fails to climb above 1.3740 Momentum oscillators show contradicting signs USDCAD has been rebounding off the medium-term ascending trend line over the last couple of weeks, remaining in a positive territory. However, the pair is also finding strong resistance...
EURGBP Stuck Around the Crucial 0.8500 Floor
EURGBP remains directionless near the long-term 0.8500 reflection point Technical signals flag oversold conditions, but a bullish outlook could come above 0.8600 Despite hitting a 20-month low of 0.8482, EURGBP has remained flat and unable to establish a clear...
Eurozone CPI rises to 2.6% in May, CPI core up to 2.9%
Eurozone CPI accelerated from 2.4% yoy to 2.6% yoy in May, above expectation of 2.5% yoy. CPI core (ex-energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) also jumped from 2.7% yoy to 2.9% yoy, above expectation of 2.7% yoy. Looking at the main components, services is expected to...
Canadian Dollar Eyes Canadian GDP
The Canadian dollar is showing little movement on Friday, but that could change with the release of Canadian GDP and the US PCE Price index later today. USD/CAD is trading at 1.3660 in the European session, down 0.15% on the day. Canada’s economy expected to have...
Gold: Looking Good for Bulls
Gold (XAUUSD) has rebounded, trading in the $2,340s on Thursday, due to a weaker US Dollar following the second estimate of US GDP data, which was revised down because of reduced consumer spending. The annualized US GDP growth for Q1 was adjusted to 1.3% from an...
GBP/USD Dips While USD/CAD Eyes More Gains
GBP/USD is attempting a recovery wave from 1.2680. USD/CAD is rising and might aim for a move above the 1.3690 resistance zone. Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today The British Pound started a fresh decline from the 1.2800 resistance zone. There...
FX option expiries for 31 May 10am New York cut
There is arguably just one to take note of, as highlighted in bold.I would thought that there'd be more but evidently, that is not to be the case this month-end. There are a host of expiries layered for EUR/USD around 1.0845-00 though. But the more relevant ones are...
Inflation Data from Eurozone and US Takes Center Stage
Dollar continues its struggle to find direction, and stay in familiar range against most major currencies except against Swiss Franc. Markets shift their focus to the upcoming release of April US PCE data for guidance. Currently Fed fund futures are indicating a 50/50...
In the Spotlight: US Inflation and GDP Data
In the final trading sessions of May, leading currencies have been in a downward trend against the dollar. For instance, the pound/dollar pair lost over 100 pips in a single day, euro sellers in the EUR/USD pair are testing 1.0800, and the USD/CAD pair might update...
Brent Crude Oil Declines Again
The commodity market, struggling to maintain its upward momentum, frequently slips into sell-offs. On Thursday, the price of Brent crude oil fell to 83.60 USD per barrel. On Wednesday evening, Brent lost almost 1% of its value due to expectations regarding lending...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9116; (P) 0.9130; (R1) 0.9147; More…. USD/CHF’s fall from 0.9157 accelerates lower today, and the development suggests that rebound from 0.8987 has completed already. Fall from 0.9157 is now seen as the third leg of the pattern from 0.9223....
Swiss Franc Jumps as Swiss GDP Improves
The Swiss franc has posted strong gains on Thursday after Switzerland’s GDP was hotter than expected. USD/CHF is down 0.83% on the day and is trading at 0.9056 early in the North American session. In the US, second-estimate GDP grew 1.3% in the first quarter, below...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.16; (P) 157.44; (R1) 157.94; More… Immediate focus is now on 156.57 minor support in USD/JPY. Decisive break there will confirm short term topping at 157.70, on bearish divergence condition in 4 H MACD. Intraday bias will be back on the downside...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2673; (P) 1.2727; (R1) 1.2754; More… GBP/USD is staying in range of 1.2670/2799 and intraday bias remains neutral. Some more consolidations could be seen but further rise is expected as long as 1.2670 support holds. Above 1.2799 will resume the...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets The two-day sell-off on core bond markets slightly went into reverse today. A downward revision to US Q1 price deflators (core PCE 3.6% Q/Q from 3.7%) and Q1 personal consumption (2% Q/Q from 2.5%) triggered the leap higher in which US Treasuries outperform...
ETHUSD Pulls Back from 2-Month High
ETHUSD posts fresh 2-month high following ETF approval But sustains some losses as advance seems overstretched Momentum indicators ease from overbought conditions ETHUSD (Ethereum) has been on the rise after claiming the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) in mid-May....
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0780; (P) 1.0821; (R1) 1.0842; More…. EUR/USD recovered after dipping to 1.0788 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the upside, firm break of 1.0894 will resume the rise from 1.0601 towards 1.0980 resistance next. However, sustained...
US: Q1 GDP Revised Slightly Lower, But Details Show Domestic Economy Still Strong
The second estimate of first quarter real GDP growth was revised down 0.3 percentage points (pp) to 1.3% quarter-over-quarter (annualized) – bang-on the consensus forecast. Looking under the hood, downward revisions to consumer spending, private inventory investment,...
Swiss Franc and Yen Surge as Dollar Lags in Risk-Averse Markets
As US session commences, Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen are trading as the day’s strongest currencies, fueled by risk aversion in US markets. While major European indices exhibit only modest fluctuations, US futures indicate notably lower opens, reinforcing the cautious...
US initial jobless claims rises to 219k, slightly above expectation
US initial jobless claims rose 3k to 219k in the week ending May 25, slightly above expectation of 218k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 2.5k to 222.5k. Continuing claims rose 4k to 1791k in the week ending May 18. Four-week moving average of...
Crypto Market Infected With Correction
Market picture The crypto market has lost almost 2% of its capitalisation in the last 24 hours to $2.51 trillion. Bitcoin is holding up better than the market, pulling back only 0.7% to $67.6K. Many top coins have deeper drawdowns. Ethereum loses almost 3%, BNB loses...
Has Pound Rally Run Its Course?
Pound gains as BoE seen cutting rates late Economy improves but inflation may further slow A Labor victory could make the BoE’s job easier As rate cuts come forward, pound may weaken Sticky core inflation weighs on rate cut bets We are nearly halfway through 2024 and...
EUR/USD Exchange Rate Has Fallen Below 1.08 Level
As the EUR/USD chart today shows, yesterday the rate dropped by 0.46% – the most significant strengthening of the US dollar against the euro in one day this month. Moreover, the rate fell below the psychological mark of 1.08 euros per dollar (in the first half of May,...
USDJPY Reapproaches Multi-Year Highs – Action Forex
USDJPY in a recovery mode after pullback halts at 50-day SMA Momentum indicators are softening but remain in bullish zones USDJPY experienced a strong setback from its 34-year high of 160.20 following an intervention by Japanese authorities in late April. However, the...
Eurozone economic sentiment rises to 96, EU up to 96.5
Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator ticked up from 95.6 to 96.0 in May, matched expectations. Employment Expectations Indicator fell -0.3 pts to 101.3. EU ESI rose 0.3 pts to 0.6.5. EU EEI fell -0.4 to 101.2. For the largest EU economies, the ESI improved...
Eurozone unemployment rate falls to 6.4%, EU steady at 6.0%
Eurozone unemployment rate fell from 6.5% to 6.4% in April, below expectation of 6.5%. EU unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.0%. Eurostat estimates that 13.149 million persons in the EU, of whom 10.998 million in Eurozone, were unemployed in April 2024. Full...
EUR/USD: Bears Face Strong Headwinds at Key Support Zone
The Euro is consolidating in early Thursday, following a sharp fall on Wednesday (the pair was down 0.5% in the biggest daily loss since Apr 30), driven by fresh risk aversion. Bears found a footstep above strong supports at /1.0790/80 zone (top of thick daily cloud /...
1.08 is a big level for EUR/USD, 2.8bn in strikes for May 30
EUR/USD is sitting just under 1.08 as I updateThe big figure may well act as a magnet during the session with 2.8bn in strikes at the level on May 30. EUR remains under pressure as policy divergence weighs, the ECB is seen cutting rates next week, at its June 6...
WTI Crude Oil Erases Gains Below 80.00
WTI crude oil finds resistance at 200-day SMA Stochastics and RSI head south WTI crude oil futures with delivery in July have failed to surpass the 80.00 level once again and are currently returning below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). The price has been...
FX option expiries for 30 May 10am New York cut
There are a few to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.They are all for EUR/USD, so let's take a look at how the expiries might impact price action as such. The first ones are at the 1.0740-50 level but that might not factor in too much as the key...
Treasury Yields Spike and Safe-Haven Currencies Ascend
The US financial markets were enveloped in a wave of risk aversion that continued into Asian session, primarily driven by the notable surge in Treasury yields. This uptick in yields followed an auction of seven-year debt that closed with higher than anticipated...
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 170.31; (P) 170.55; (R1) 170.90; More… Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays mildly on the upside. Break of 61.8% projection of 164.01 to 169.38 from 167.31 at 170.62 will target 171.58 high. Strong resistance could be seen there to limit upside. On the...
GBP/JPY at Highest Level in Over 15 Years
As shown by today’s GBP/JPY chart, the exchange rate has not only surpassed the psychological level of 200 yen per pound but has also exceeded the peak of 29 April 2024. The market is now experiencing prices last seen in 2008. The main driver of the pound’s strength...
USD/JPY: Holds Bullish Bias But Daily Techs Mixed, All Eyes on US Inflation Data
USDJPY attempts to break above near-term narrow range and sustain gains after Tuesday’s marginal close above pivotal Fibo barrier at 157.01 (61.8% of 160.19/151.85 pullback), where attacks repeatedly failed last week. Technical signals are mixed on daily chart as...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9091; (P) 0.9120; (R1) 0.9153; More…. Range trading continues in USD/CHF below 0.9157 and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is in favor with 0.9077 minor support intact. On the upside, above 0.9157 will bring retest of 0.9223. However, on...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.78; (P) 156.99; (R1) 157.40; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside at this point. Rise from 151.86, as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20, would target 100% projection of 151.86 to 156.78 from 153.59 at 158.51. On...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2743; (P) 1.2772; (R1) 1.2790; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral with current retreat. Some consolidations would be seen below 1.2799 temporary top. But further rise is expected as long as 1.2670 support holds. Current rally from...
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets German bunds underperformed US Treasuries today. We should speak in the conditional tense though because there’s still the $44 bn 7-yr auction scheduled after the European close. A mediocre 2-yr and 5-yr sale yesterday triggered additional losses for...
Will Core PCE Inflation Spur a Less Hawkish Fed?
Hopes that PCE inflation will point to some further moderation But would that be enough for the Fed to ease its hawkish stance? US dollar drifts lower ahead of the crucial data due Friday, 12:30 GMT The stakes are high as Fed meeting approaches After months of...
Accelerating German Inflation Supports Euro on the Downturn
German inflation confirmed an acceleration. Harmonised CPI rose to 2.8% vs 2.4% a month earlier and 2.3% in March. This is positive news for the Euro, which is lagging behind the Pound and relatively weak against the Dollar, based on expectations of a looser ECB...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0843; (P) 1.0866; (R1) 1.0879; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral as sideway trading continues. More consolidations could still be seen. On the upside, break of 1.0894 will resume the rally from 1.0601 to 1.0980 resistance next....
Risk Aversion Dominates Amid Light Economic Calendar
Risk aversion is the prevailing theme in the global markets today, with major European indexes trading in the red and US futures pointing to a lower open. Australian Dollar reversed its earlier post-CPI gains and is currently the worst performer of the day, followed...
WTI Oil: OPEC+ Likely to Keep Its Production Cut and Further Support the Price
WTI oil price rose further on Wednesday, extending advance into fourth straight day, following strong acceleration on Tuesday, which resulted in a daily gain of 2.1% and close above important barriers at $79.83/$80.00 (200DMA / psychological). Bulls cracked next pivot...
Australia’s Inflation Ticking Up Despite Weak Retail Sales
Consumer inflation in Australia rose in April, contrary to the expected decline. Year-on-year price gains totalled 3.6% vs. 3.5% previously, and average forecasts of a decline to 3.4%. The inflation rate reached a plateau late last year, falling to 3.4%, but has been...
Australian Dollar Hits 0.6650 Amid Mixed Economic Signals
The AUD/USD pair rose to 0.6650 on Wednesday following the release of Australian economic data. Australia’s consumer price index (CPI) accelerated to 3.6% year-on-year in April, up from 3.5% in March. This slight increase in inflation could prompt questions about the...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 200.29; (P) 200.47; (R1) 200.79; More… Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Sustained break of 200.53 will confirm larger up trend resumption. Next target is 138.2% projection of 191.34 to 180.07 from 195.02 at 202.93. On...
NZDUSD Pauses Advance at 61.8% Fibonacci
NZDUSD stages a solid recovery from its 2024 lows Posts a two-month high and challenges 61.8% Fibo Oscillators point to persistent bullish pressures NZDUSD has been in an aggressive uptrend after recording a 2024 bottom of 0.5851 in mid-April. The positive short-term...
GBP/USD: Possible Price Adjustment Before Final Break Through 1.2800 zone
Cable firmed in early Wednesday’s trading after hitting nine-week high on Tuesday (1.2800), but subsequently pulling back on unexpectedly strong rise in US consumer confidence in May, which temporarily inflated dollar. Broken Fibo barrier at 1.2753 (76.4% of...
EUR/USD Slips as USD/CHF Targets Upside Break
EUR/USD started a downside correction from the 1.0890 resistance. USD/CHF is rising and might aim a move toward the 0.9155 resistance. Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today The Euro struggled to clear the 1.0890 resistance and declined against the...
WTI Oil: On Track for a Potential Recovery After 2-month of 12% Decline
Recent additional stimulus measures from China, a reduction in elevated net long positioning from large futures speculators & an uptick in geopolitical risk premium may support higher oil prices. Watch the key medium-term support of US$78.40/US$76.60 on WTI crude...
Bitcoin Gathering Its Strength – Action Forex
Market picture The crypto market added 1.3% in 24 hours to $2.58 trillion. This is roughly the area where trading has been centred for the last week, despite attempts by speculators to rock the market. Volatility in the market has decreased, with prices of the major...
FX option expiries for 29 May 10am New York cut
There are a few to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.And they are all for EUR/USD, layered in between 1.0800 through to 1.0890. The bookends of the expiries also help to exemplify the trading range we're seeing in the pair since last week. So, the...
Australian Dollar Strengthens Modestly on Surprising Inflation Data
Australian Dollar is having a modest bounce today after stronger-than-anticipated inflation figures. The data also revealed re-acceleration of inflation for the second consecutive month, with core inflation measures also rising. While most economists still view a...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 199.85; (P) 200.14; (R1) 200.67; More… Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside for 100% projection of 191.34 to 180.07 from 195.02 at 200.75. Strong resistance could be seen there to limit upside. But upside should be limited there. On the...
June ECB Rate Cut a Done Deal Except in Case of a Big Shock
Markets As US and UK markets were closed yesterday, directional guidance for trading on European markets solely had to come from domestic sources. German IFO Business climate printed softer than hoped for after last week’s strong PMIs. The overall index stabilized...
GBPUSD Challenges New 2-Month High
GBPUSD creates upside rally from five-month low Stochastic and RSI hold in overbought areas GBPUSD has been in a steady uptrend over the last month, posting a fresh two-month high of 1.2782 and remaining well above the short-term simple moving averages (SMAs)....
WTI Crude Oil Price Shows Bullish Trend Ahead of OPEC Meeting
As the chart indicates, on Monday, the price of WTI crude oil rose by approximately 1%. Reuters reports that the bullish sentiment is driven by: → the upcoming OPEC+ meeting scheduled for 2 June; → expectations of high fuel demand with the start of the summer driving...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.70; (P) 156.87; (R1) 157.06; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, above 157.78 will resume the rally from 151.86, as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20, to 100% projection of...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9128; (P) 0.9141; (R1) 0.9151; More…. USD/CHF’s retreat from 0.9157 extends lower but stays above 0.9077 minor support. Intraday bias remains neutral and another rise is in favor. On the upside, above 0.9157 will bring retest of 0.9223. However,...
AUD/USD Rises After Retail Sales Tick Higher
The Australian dollar has edged higher on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6667, up 0.25% on the day at the time of writing. Australia’s retail sales rise 0.1%, CPI next Australian consumers remain frugal and cautious, as retail sales rose just 0.1% m/m April. This...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets With US and UK markets closed for a holiday yesterday, markets still showed some Monday-like slow trading dynamics today. German yields are changing less than 2 bps across the curve. Inflation expectations in the ECB April consumer survey declined slightly...
US consumer confidence jumps to 102, above exp 96.1
US Conference Board Consumer Confidence rose from 97.5 to 102.0 in May, well above expectation of 96.1. Present Situation Index rose from 140.6 to 143.1. Expectations Index also rose from 68.8 to 74.6. “Confidence improved in May after three consecutive months of...
Swiss Franc Rises Sharply Amid Middle East Tensions; EUR/CHF in Short-Term Correction?
Swiss Franc is having a significant surge today, likely due to flight to safe-haven assets amid rising tensions in the Middle East. Reports have emerged that Israeli military tanks were seen in central Rafah for the first time since the Israel Defense Forces entered...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2744; (P) 1.2761; (R1) 1.2788; More… GBP/USD’s rally continues today and intraday bias stays on the upside. Rise from 1.2298 should target 1.2892 resistance next. For now, further rally is expected as long as 1.2670 support holds, in case of...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0844; (P) 1.0856; (R1) 1.0871; More… EUR/USD is staying in range below 1.0894 and intraday bias stays neutral. More consolidations could still be seen. On the upside, break of 1.0894 will resume the rally from 1.0601 to 1.0980 resistance next....
USD/JPY Shrugs as Japan’s Inflation Data a Mix
The Japanese yen continues to drift and showing little movement on Tuesday. USD/JPY is trading at 156.92, up 0.01% on the day at the time of writing. Corporate service prices jumps, BoJ core CPI dips Japanese inflation indicators have been a mix this week. The...
Gold Prices Edge Towards $2351 Amid Weakening US Dollar
Gold prices are on an upward trajectory, moving towards 2351.00 USD per troy ounce on Tuesday. This marks a significant rise after days of sideways movement, highlighting the metal’s renewed appeal among investors. This surge in gold prices can be attributed to a...
Bitcoin Under Pressure But Beats Expectations
Market picture The crypto market capitalisation is down 0.8% in 24 hours to $2.55 trillion. Bitcoin is losing 0.7%, Ethereum is down 1.1%, and the top altcoins are changing between -0.9% (Toncoin) and +1.1% (Solana). Bitcoin’s hashrate updated a record after the...
Cable Moving into Daily Trendline Resistance Near 1.2800
Cable has seen some nice recovery at the end of 2023; move is looking impulsive so more gains can be seen after the corrective retracement which has unfolded down from March highs. So far, price came down with three waves but pair is making a nice turn-up in last few...
EUR/USD: Bulls Hold Grip and Eye Key Barriers as Markets Await Release of German CPI Data
The Euro keeps firm tone on fading hopes for ECB rate cut, with markets focusing on tomorrow’s release of German inflation data (annualized CPI expected to rise in May). The bull leg off higher low at 1.0805, where 100DMA contained recent pullback, extends into third...
ECB: Consumer inflation expectations reach lowest level since Sep 2021
ECB Consumer Expectations Survey for April shows a slight decline in inflation expectations and a modestly improved economic outlook. Median inflation expectations for the next 12 months have decreased to 2.9%, down from 3.0%, reaching their lowest point since...
Fed’s Kashkari: More positive inflation data needed before easing monetary policy
In an interview with CNBC today, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari emphasized the need for “many more months of positive inflation data” before considering a reduction in monetary policy restrictions. Moreover, he noted that Fed might still need to hike rates if...
EURJPY Advances Towards 40-Year High
EURJPY is in a steady uptrend, threatening multi-year peak But oscillators point to overbought conditions EURJPY has been in a steady advance since the beginning of May following its bounce off the long-term ascending trendline. However, the risk of a pullback has...
FX option expiries for 28 May 10am New York cut
There are just two to take note of, as highlighted in bold.They are for EUR/USD and stuck together at the 1.0900-10 region. Alongside some technical resistance around 1.0885 and offers near the figure level, the expiries should keep a lid on price action in the...
Aussie Rises Despite Sluggish Retail Sales, Boosted by Chinese Housing Measures
Australian Dollar strengthened broadly in Asian session today, shrugging off lackluster retail sales data. Instead, Aussie is responding positively to Shanghai’s announcement of significant policy measures aimed at boosting the housing market. Yesterday, China’s...
AUD/USD Daily Report – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6602; (P) 0.6619; (R1) 0.6647; More... Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. Further rally is in favor with 0.6578 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.6361 to 0.6713 at 0.6579 intact. On the upside, firm break of 0.6713 will...
Quiet Start to a Week Where Inflation Will Be in Focus
In focus today The week kicks off with a very light schedule. We receive the Germany Ifo indicator for May at 10.00 CET. The past two months have seen an increase in the assessment of the business situation, and it will be interesting to see if this continued in May....
Trading Probably Will Take a Slow Start
Markets With investors looking ahead to a long weekend in the US and the UK; the upleg in core yields slowed on Friday. US and EMU yields closed with changes of less than 1.5 bps across the curve. US durable goods orders (+0.7% M/M) and core shipments (+0.4% M/M)...
USD/CHF Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9134; (P) 0.9146; (R1) 0.9160; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. Current development suggests that pull back from 0.9223 has completed already. Above 0.9157 will bring retest of 0.9223. However, break of 0.9077...
GBP/USD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2692; (P) 1.2721; (R1) 1.2767; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral and further rise is in favor with 1.2670 support intact. Above 1.2760 will resume the rally from 1.2298 to 1.2892 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.2670 will turn...
USD/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.83; (P) 156.99; (R1) 157.16; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the upside for 100% projection of 151.86 to 156.78 from 153.59 at 158.51. On the downside, below 155.83 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. Further...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Bank of France governor and ECB governing council member Villeroy leveraged low volume trading conditions (UK & US markets are closed) to get maximum market impact with some dovish comments. So far, ECB members generally didn’t pre-commit on the H2 2024...
Will Gold Resume Its Prevailing Uptrend?
Gold stabilizes after last week’s sharp slide Oscillators point to corrective phase A break of record high could challenge $2,500 For the outlook to change, a dip below $2,145 may be needed Gold stabilized on Friday and is recovering ground today, following a decent...
German Business Climate Worse Than Expected; Euro/Pound Under Pressure
The improvement in Germany’s business climate stalled in May, according to data released by Ifo. The index remained at the same level of 89.3 as a month earlier. The indicator was last higher in May last year, but analysts, on average, were expecting a further...
EUR/USD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0815; (P) 1.0836; (R1) 1.0868; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral and further rise is mildly in favor. Break of 1.0894 will resume the rally from 1.0601 to 1.0980 resistance next. However, break of 1.0804 will turn bias back to the...
XAU/USD: Thick Daily Cloud Contained Sharp Pullback But Fresh Recovery So Far Lacks Strength
Gold price edges higher in early trading on Monday after last week’s 5% pullback from new record high found solid ground at $2327/25, provided by the top of thick rising daily Ichimoku cloud. Partial profit taking lifted the price, although recovery was mild so far...
Crypto Market Struggles With Downtrend, Ethereum Tests Resistance
Market picture Crypto market capitalisation rose 6.2% in seven days to $2.57 trillion, approaching the area of this year’s highs above $2.7 trillion. Bitcoin’s price, like the overall market capitalisation chart, tests the upper boundary of the downward range that has...
ECB’s Rehn: Time is ripe for Jun rate cut
In a speech today, ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn indicated that the ongoing disinflationary process is bringing inflation closer to the 2% target in a sustained manner. He stated, “the time is thus ripe in June to ease the monetary policy stance and start...
USD/JPY Steady as BoJ’s Ueda Urges Caution
The Japanese yen has been drifting since late last week and is calm on Monday. USD/JPY is trading at 156.85, down 0.09% on the day at the time of writing. Ueda: BoJ will proceed with caution The Bank of Japan has been outlier, as it looks to raise interest rates at a...
USD/JPY Analysis: The Market is Indecisive Near Its Peak Since May 1
As the USD/JPY chart shows today: → The price is in an upward trend (indicated by the blue channel) that has been relevant since the beginning of 2024. → On Thursday, May 23, the exchange rate nearly reached 157.2 yen per US dollar, surpassing the peak of May 14. →...
Dollar Index outlook: Stands at the Back Foot Ahead of Key Economic Releases This Week
The dollar moved within a narrow range in Asian / early European session on Monday, but near-term picture remains bearishly aligned, weighed by Friday’s 0.3% drop and formation of bearish engulfing pattern on daily chart. Rising negative momentum adds to downside...
Japanese Yen Slightly Rises Against USD
The Japanese yen slightly increased against the US dollar on Monday, with the USD/JPY pair holding near 156.73. Investors have already priced in previous remarks from Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized the need to anchor inflation...
DAX Elliott Wave: Buying the Dips at the Blue Box Area
Hello fellow traders. In this article we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of DAX published in members area of the website. DAX is showing impulsive bullish sequences in the cycle from the October 2023 low. Recently we got a 3 waves pull back...
EURUSD Ticks Up Before Testing Descending Trendline
EURUSD retreats from a fresh 2-month high of 1.0894 But meets support a tad above its long-term restrictive trendline Oscillators suggest bulls remain in charge despite the latest drop EURUSD had been in a steady advance following its 2024 bottom of 1.0600 on April...
German Ifo steady at 89.3, working out of crisis step by step
German Ifo Business Climate was unchanged to 89.3 in May, below expectation of 90.3. Current Assessment Index fell from 88.9 to 88.3, below expectation of 89.9. Expectations Index rose from 89.7 to 90.4, slightly below expectation of 90.5. By sector, manufacturing...
FX option expiries for 27 May 10am New York cut
There is just one to take note of, as highlighted in bold.That being for USD/JPY at the 157.00 level. And the expiries should help to act alongside offers to keep a lid on price action in the session ahead, before rolling off later in the day.Besides that, the...
Subdued Holiday Trading Precedes Key Inflation Data Releases
Trading has been characteristically subdued in the Monday’s Asian session. Japanese Yen is have a broad but weak recovery, with no clear indication of a reversal from its recent selloff. Australian and New Zealand Dollars are also mildly firmer, following rebound in...
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast – Action Forex
EUR/USD: The Battle of Europe and US PMIs Overall, the past week favoured the dollar, but the advantage over the European currency was minimal. If you look at where the EUR/USD pair was on 15 May, it returned to this zone on 24 May, regaining the losses of recent...
EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/AUD’s extended rebound last week suggests short term bottoming at 1.6211, on bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD. Intraday bias stays mildly on the upside this week. Sustained trading above 55 D EMA (now at 1.6412) will argue that fall from 1.6742 has...
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/GBP fell to as low as 0.8498 last week but recovered just ahead of 0.8491/7 support zone. Initial bias is turned neutral this week for some consolidations first. Further decline is expected as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.8564) holds. Decisive break of 0.8491/7 will...
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/JPY’s rise from 164.01 extended by breaking through 169.38 resistance last week. This rally is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 171.58. Initial bias remains on the upside for 61.8% projection of 164.01 to 169.38 from 167.31 at 170.62, and then...
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/JPY’s rally from 191.34 continued last week and outlook is unchanged. This rise is still seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 200.53. Initial bias stays on the upside for 100% projection of 191.34 to 180.07 from 195.02 at 200.75. But upside should...
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CAD rebounded strong last week but reversed after hitting 1.3742. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Break 1.3742 will affirm the case that correction from 1.3845 has completed at 1.3589. Further rally would then be seen to retest 1.3845 high....
AUD/USD Weekly Report – Action Forex
AUD/USD’s pull back from 0.6713 extended lower last week but stayed above 0.6578 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.6361 to 0.6713 at 0.6579. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, and further rally is in favor. On the upside, firm break of 0.6713 will...
Sterling Climbs as Markets Dial Back BoE Rate Cut Expectations
Last week, global financial markets were heavily influenced by evolving expectations surrounding central bank monetary easing paths and unexpected political developments. British Pound emerged as the most significant gainer, buoyed by fading expectations of an...
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/USD turned sideway after rising to 1.2760 last week. Intraday bias remains neutral this week for some consolidations, but further rally is in favor. Above 1.2760 will resume the rally from 1.2298 to 1.2892 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.2670 will turn...
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/JPY’s rebound from 151.86 resumed last week by breaking through 156.78 resistance. Initial bias remains mildly on the upside this week for 100% projection of 151.86 to 156.78 from 153.59 at 158.51. On the downside, below 155.83 minor support will turn intraday...
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/USD’s retreat from 1.0894 continued last week and recovered after dipping to 1.0804. Initial bias stays neutral this week first, and further rise is mildly in favor. Break of 1.0894 will resume the rally from 1.0601 to 1.0980 resistance next. However, break of...
Sterling Climb as Markets Dial Back BoE Rate Cut Expectations
Last week, global financial markets were heavily influenced by evolving expectations surrounding central bank monetary easing paths and unexpected political developments. British Pound emerged as the most significant gainer, buoyed by fading expectations of an...
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CHF’s rebound from 0.8987 extended to 0.9157 last week before turning sideway. Current development suggests that pull back from 0.9223 has completed already. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and further rise is in favor. Above 0.9157 will bring retest...
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/CHF’s rally continued last week despite some brief interim retreat. Initial bias is now on the upside this week. Current rise from 0.9252 should target 100% projection of 0.9304 to 0.9847 from 0.9563 at 1.0106, which is slightly above 1.0095 key structural...
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Higher for Longer Mantra on Repeat in Week Replete with Fed Speak
Summary United States: High Mortgage Rates Burden Homebuyers Homebuying retreated in April following a leg up in mortgage rates. Meanwhile, durable goods orders surprised to the upside, suggesting the manufacturing industry is on better footing. Next week: Consumer...
The Weekly Bottom Line: FOMC Continues to Preach Patience
U.S. Highlights U.S. equity markets briefly touched a new all-time high mid-week, while measures of market volatility dipped to multi-year lows. Minutes from the April 30th-May 1st FOMC meeting struck a more hawkish tone, resulting in markets now pricing in just 34...
Summary 5/27 – 5/31
Monday, May 27, 2024 Tuesday, May 28, 2024 Wednesday, May 29, 2024 Thursday, May 30, 2024 Friday, May 31, 2024 The post Summary 5/27 – 5/31 appeared first on Action Forex.
Canada’s retail sales falls -0.2% mom in Mar, slightly worse than expectations
Canada’s retail sales value fell -0.2% mom to CAD 66.4B in March, slightly worse than expectation of -0.1% mom. Sales were down in seven of nine subsectors and were led by decreases at furniture, home furnishings, electronics and appliances retailers. Core retail...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2674; (P) 1.2710; (R1) 1.2736; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral as it recovered ahead of 55 4H EMA (now at 1.2671). On the upside, break of 1.2760 will resume the rally fro 1.2290 towards 1.2892 resistance. On the downside, break...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9128; (P) 0.9143; (R1) 0.9160; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral and further rise is in favor with 0.9077 minor support intact. On the upside, above 0.9157 will resume the rebound from 0.8987 to retest 0.9223 high. On the downside,...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Today’s eco calendar was light compared to earlier this week but that didn’t prevent a further sell-off on core bond markets. April US durable goods orders were stronger than expected, but March figures face a downward revision. Core shipments, input for GDP...
Weekly Focus – Euro Economy on Track for Mild Recovery
Economic news was to the solid side this week with not least euro area PMIs painting a stronger picture. The main surprise came from manufacturing PMI which increased from 45.7 to 47.4 (consensus 46.1) while the service sector stayed at a decent level of 53.3. The...
Canadian GDP Per Capita Likely Shrunk for Seventh Consecutive Quarter in Q1
The Canadian economy likely grew more quickly in Q1 2024 based on headline figures, but it was not fast enough yet again to keep up with surging population growth. That means gross domestic product on a per-person basis contracted for a seventh consecutive quarter. We...
Week Ahead – US PCE Inflation and Eurozone CPI Data Enter the Spotlight
Dollar traders lock gaze on core PCE index Eurozone CPIs in focus as June cut looms Tokyo CPIs may complicate BoJ’s policy plans Aussie awaits Australian CPIs and Chinese PMIs Will PCE data break the “higher for longer” mantra? The US dollar stabilized this week,...
Could Developments in Iran and Saudi Arabia Turn the Tide for Oil?
Iran is still quiet about reasons behind the helicopter accident Saudi Arabia’s King health scare turns focus on Crown Prince Oil still under pressure; a new catalyst could reverse the recent trend Iranian Presidential elections to be held on June 28 News of the...
ECB Preview – A Political Rate Cut in June, and No Cut in September
On Thursday 6 June, the ECB is widely expected to deliver a 25bp rate cut, largely because the governing council members have stated as much. The updated June staff projection is expected to suggest that the prevailing economic and monetary policy narrative stays...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0794; (P) 1.0827; (R1) 1.0850; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, break of 1.0894 will resume the rise from 1.0601 to 1.0980 resistance. Decisive break there will confirm that whole fall from...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.55; (P) 156.92; (R1) 157.30; More… No change in USD/JPY’s outlook and intraday bias remains mildly on the upside. Rise from 161.86, as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20, should now target 100% projection of 151.86 to 156.78...
Euro Rebounds With Sterling, Dollar Softens Despite Solid Durable Goods
Euro rebounded notably today despite the absence of substantial news from Europe. Sterling followed suit, shrugging off poor UK retail sales data. Conversely, Dollar ignored upbeat durable goods data and weakened alongside Yen and Swiss Franc. Commodity currencies...
US durable goods orders rise 0.7% mom, ex-transport orders up 0.4% mom
US durable goods orders rose 0.7% mom to USD 284.1B in April, above expectation of 0.5% mom. Ex-transport orders rose 0.4% mom to USD 187.9B, above expectation of 0.1% mom. Ex-defense orders was flat at 268.0B. Transportation equipment rose 1.2% mom to USD 96.2B. Full...
AUD/USD: Regains Traction After Losing Over 1% This Week
AUDUSD edges higher on Friday as traders collected part of profits from the drop in past four days. Today’s action marks the first gain this week, but the pair remains on track for a weekly loss of over 1% so far. Technical studies on daily chart are mixed and lack...
Ethereum: Too Soon to Say Goodbye to $3000
Market picture The crypto market lost 2.9% in the last 24 hours, retreating to a market capitalisation of $2.5 trillion. The market came under pressure as active trading began in the US on a fresh batch of strong economic data. News of the approval of spot ETFs on...
Is the Pause in NGAS a Warning Signal?
Natural gas faces limits near January’s peak Technical signals flag some weakness Improved trend signals suggest bullish continuation Lower-than-usual storage increases, improved demand forecasts, and a summer season ahead boosted natural gas prices above the key...
ECB’s Schnabel warns against hasty moves following likely June cut
ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel indicated in an interview that if inflation outlook and upcoming data support a sustainable convergence towards 2% target, “a rate cut in June will be likely.” However, Schnabel emphasized the need for caution regarding...
Australian Dollar Rapidly Depreciates – Action Forex
The AUD/USD pair has fallen rapidly in the final week, reaching 0.6592. This decline is primarily driven by the US dollar’s robust performance, following stronger-than-expected US economic data. Investors now speculate that the Federal Reserve may postpone any...
GBPJPY Continues its Journey North
GBPJPY closing in to pre-intervention levels BoJ has the habit of intervening during bank holidays Momentum indicators remain bullish GBPJPY is edging higher again today, trading very close to the levels that forced the BoJ to intervene twice in late April. This pair...
Canadian Dollar Eyes Retail Sales
The Canadian dollar is unchanged on Friday. USD/CAD is trading at 1.3726 in the European session at the time of writing at the time. Canada releases retail sales later, which may trigger some volatility in the North American session. The US will release durable goods...
WTI Crude Oil Opens the Way for Bearish Actions
WTI drops below diagonal line 20- and 200-day SMAs post death cross RSI flattens and Stochastics hold in oversold region WTI crude oil with delivery in July is plummeting from the 80.00 level, which is acting as a strong resistance obstacle as well as the 200-day...
FX option expiries for 24 May 10am New York cut
There is just one large one to take note of, as highlighted in bold.That being for USD/JPY at the 157.00 mark. As such, that could keep price action to be stickier to the figure level in the session ahead until the expiries roll off later in the day. That despite a...
Dollar Gains Momentum as Fed Hike Re-Enters Markets Pricing, Despite Ultra Low Odds
Dollar’s rebound is gathering momentum, as fueled by yesterday’s data indicating a resurgence in the services sector, which could impede disinflation progress. While fed fund futures still reflect over 50% probability of a rate cut in September, there is now a 0.6%...
Eurozone PMI composite hits 12-month high at 52.3, pointing to 0.3% GDP growth in Q2
In May, Eurozone’s PMI Manufacturing rose from 45.7 to 47.4, surpassing expectations of 46.6 and marking a 15-month high. PMI Services remained unchanged at 53.3, slightly below the forecast of 53.5. PMI Composite increased from 51.7 to 52.3, reaching a 12-month high....
New Zealand Dollar Rises After Hot Retail Sales Data
The New Zealand dollar is in positive territory on Thursday. NZD/USD is up 0.38%, trading at 0.6120 in the European session at the time of writing. The New Zealand dollar showed some strength after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate decision on Wednesday, gaining as...
Gold: Hawkish Fed Minutes Further Weaken Near-Term Sentiment
Gold price remains in red for the third straight day and fell to the lowest since May 15 during early European session on Thursday, in extension of Wednesday’s 1.75% drop. Fed minutes, released late Wednesday, showed that the US central bank believes that inflation...
EURGBP Tests Critical Pivot Area After Slump
EURGBP at a make-or-break point near 0.8500 after plunge Oversold conditions detected, but the bears not ready to give up the battle EURGBP was knocked down near the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at the start of the month, subsequently losing around 1.0% to...
US initial jobless claims falls to 215k, vs exp 220k
US initial jobless claims fell -8k to 215k in the week ending May 18, below expectation of 220k. Four-week moving average rose 2k to 220k. Continuing claims rose 8k to 1794k in the week ending May 11. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 5k to 1782k....
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2691; (P) 1.2726; (R1) 1.2753; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral for the moment. On the upside. decisive break of 100% projection of 1.2298 to 1.2633 from 1.2445 at 1.2780 will extend the rally from 1.2298 to 1.2892 resistance next....
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.33; (P) 156.58; (R1) 157.07; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. Price actions from 160.20 are seen as a corrective pattern. On the upside, break of 156.78 will resume the rise from 151.86, as the second leg,...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9117; (P) 0.9138; (R1) 0.9178; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF is turned neutral with current retreat. On the upside, above 0.9157 will resume the rebound from 0.8987 to retest 0.9223 high. On the downside, break of 0.9077 support will bring...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0805; (P) 1.0834; (R1) 1.0852; More… EUR/USD recovers ahead of 1.0810 resistance turned support. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 1.0894 will resume the rise from 1.0601 to 1.0980 resistance. Decisive break there...
US PMI composite jumps to 25-month high, upturn accelerates again
US PMI Manufacturing rose from 50.0 to 50.9 in May. PMI Services rose fro 51.3 to 54.8, a 12-month high. PMI Composite rose from 51.3 to 54.4, a 25-month high. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “The US economic...
EUR/USD: Recovery Needs Further Positive Signals to Resume
The Euro regained traction and bounced 0.3%, after pullback from 1.0895 (May 16 high) was repeatedly rejected at 100DMA (1.0814), generating initial signal of a double-bottom and potential end of corrective phase. Fresh strength so far retraced over 50% of...
Sunset Market Commentary
Markets European May PMIs were generally speaking good. The services reading stabilized at a decent 53.3 in May but a better-than-expected improvement in the admittedly still struggling manufacturing sector (from 45.7 to 47.4) lifted the composite figure to the...
USD/JPY Steady as Japanese PMIs Mixed
The Japanese yen is slightly lower on Thursday. USD/JPY is trading at 156.70, down 0.08% on the day at the time of writing. Japan’s PMIs for April were a mixed bag and the yen didn’t show much reaction. Services PMI dipped to 53.6, down from 54.3 in March and just shy...
Euro Recovers on Eurozone PMIs, But Gains Limited
As trading progresses into US session, activity in the forex markets remains relatively muted. Euro is showing signs of recovery ahead of key support levels against Dollar and crucial support against Sterling. Eurozone PMIs revealed that economic recovery is...
EUR/USD Price Forms Bullish Reversal Amid Key News
Last night, the FOMC meeting minutes were released. According to USNews, there were no major surprises. However, the confirmation of persistent inflation – along with hints that some officials discussed potential future rate hikes – displayed a “hawkish” stance. The...
Gold Falls from Highs – Action Forex
The price of gold fell to $2370.00 per troy ounce by Thursday following the release of the minutes from the latest US Federal Reserve meeting. The general tone of the Fed’s policymakers was notably cautious, aligning with previous calls for a restrained approach to...
Bitcoin Prepares for $100K Hike
Market picture The crypto market is quiet, hovering around a total capitalisation of $2.6 trillion for the third day. Bitcoin has so far failed to gain a foothold above $70K, and this is curbing the enthusiasm. It is losing 0.3% in 24 hours against Ethereum’s 0.6%...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 198.20; (P) 198.56; (R1) 198.84; More… Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Current rise from 191.34, as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 200.53, should target 100% projection of 191.34 to 180.07 from 195.02 at...
EUR/USD Fell With Noticeable Acceleration After FOMC Minutes
Markets Above-consensus April inflation figures in the UK triggered an obvious underperformance of gilts, resulting in yield gains between 7.2 (30-yr) and 14.2 bps (2-yr). A June rate cut by the BoE is just short of fully priced out. Steep gilt losses dragged core...
Eurozone PMI composite hits 12-month high at 52.3, pointing to 0.3% GDP growth in Q2
In May, Eurozone’s PMI Manufacturing rose from 45.7 to 47.4, surpassing expectations of 46.6 and marking a 15-month high. PMI Services remained unchanged at 53.3, slightly below the forecast of 53.5. PMI Composite increased from 51.7 to 52.3, reaching a 12-month high....
Is USDJPY Still Searching for New Highs?
USDJPY surpasses key resistance, but more steps needed Short-term risk tilted to the upside; 157.00 mark under examination US S&P Global PMIs, initial jobless claims, new home sales on the agenda USDJPY closed Wednesday’s session with modest gains at 156.75 as the...
UK PMI manufacturing rises to 22-month high, services growth slows
UK PMI Manufacturing rose from 49.1 to 51.3 in May, surpassing expectations of 49.2 and reaching a 22-month high. However, PMI Services fell from 55.0 to 52.9, below the anticipated 54.8 and marking a 6-month low. Consequently, PMI Composite dropped from 54.1 to 52.8....
FX option expiries for 23 May 10am New York cut
There aren't any major expiries to take note of for the day. As such, trading sentiment will be a bit of a mix of things in the day ahead. For one, we have PMI data to deal with alongside the US weekly jobless claims. Then, we also have to consider the overall risk...
Dollar Recovers Post-Hawkish FOMC Minutes, EUR/GBP in Focus
Trading has been relatively quiet in Asian session today. Dollar regained some ground overnight following hawkish minutes from the latest FOMC meeting, which revealed that several members are prepared to support further rate hike if necessary. Despite this, the...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 198.20; (P) 198.56; (R1) 198.84; More… GBP/JPY’s rally continues today and intraday bias stays on the upside. Current rise from 191.34, as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 200.53, should target 100% projection of 191.34 to 180.07 from...
Bitcoin Waits for Ethereum Story to Develop
Market picture The crypto market cap has stabilised at $2.6 trillion after an impressive surge following the Ethereum rally. Among the top coins over 24 hours, Toncoin is leading the decline, falling 5%, while Dogecoin is leading the way with a 3.4% increase. Bitcoin...
New Zealand Dollar Shows Steady Rise
The NZD/USD pair is preparing for a mid-week rally, approaching the 0.6116 level. These current values mark the highest point for the Kiwi in two months, following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s decision to maintain its monetary policy structure unchanged during...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2689; (P) 1.2708; (R1) 1.2729; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside for 100% projection of 1.2298 to 1.2633 from 1.2445 at 1.2780. Firm break there will target 1.2892 resistance next. However, break of 1.2685 will minor support...
Bank of England – Revised BoE Call – Hot Service Inflation Spells Trouble
On the back of continued strong inflationary pressures in the service sector, as evident in the April inflation print, we revise our BoE call. We now expect the first 25bp cut in August (prev. June). We expect quarterly cuts from August and through 2025, leaving the...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0840; (P) 1.0857; (R1) 1.0872; More… EUR/USD dips notably today but stays above 1.0810 resistance turned support. Intraday bias remains neutral and further rally is still in favor. On the upside, break of 1.0894 will resume the rise from 1.0601 to...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9092; (P) 0.9104; (R1) 0.9122; More…. USD/CHF’s rebound from 0.8987 extends higher today, and intraday bias stays on the upside. Further rally would be seen to 0.9223 resistance. On the downside, below 0.9086 minor support will turn intraday bias...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.75; (P) 156.03; (R1) 156.56; More… No change in USD/JPY’s outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. Price actions from 160.20 are seen as a corrective pattern. On the upside, break of 156.78 will resume the rise from 151.86, as the second leg, to...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets April UK inflation figures set the tone from the start of trading. The Bank of England, with a leading role for chair Bailey, hyped the number way in advance as coming a long way in the direction of the 2% inflation target. That was because of the anticipated...
UK Inflation Distanced the Expected Rate Cut
Inflation in the UK exceeded forecasts, making traders and investors cautious about the prospects for policy easing in the coming months. Consumer prices rose by 0.3% m/m vs. 0.2% expected. Annual inflation slowed to 2.3% last month from 3.2% in March. This is the...
GBP/USD Shrugs as UK Inflation Higher Than Expected
The British pound edged higher earlier today but has pared most of those gains. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2703, up 0.06% early in the North American session. UK inflation declines less than expected UK inflation fell sharply in April, falling to 2.3% y/y. This was down...
Sterling Up as BoE June Cut Hopes Diminish; But Dollar and Kiwi Outshine
Sterling climbed broadly today after data showed that UK disinflation progress was slower than anticipated, with services inflation remaining persistently high. This development dashed hopes for an imminent rate cut by BoE, causing the odds of a rate cut in June to...
Bundesbank sees German economy gradually gaining momentum in Q2
In its monthly report, Bundesbank indicated that Germany’s economic output is “likely to increase slightly again” in Q2. The general trend suggests that the economy is gradually “picking up speed,” with positive impulses expected from private consumption and a...
New Zealand Dollar Climbs after Hawkish RBNZ Announcement
The New Zealand dollar has pushed higher on Wednesday. NZD/USD is up 0.54%, trading at 0.6124 in the European session at the time of writing. The New Zealand dollar rose as high as 0.6152 (0.80%) in the Asian session after the RBNZ meeting but has pared much of these...
GBP/USD: Cable Hits Two-Month High After Inflation Data
Cable rose to two-month high (1.2761) on Wednesday, after UK inflation data for April showed that prices pressure eased below expectations, hurting bets for BoE’s June rate cut. Fresh acceleration higher generates initial signal of bullish continuation after the price...
Nvidia’s Stock Price Has Doubled Since the Beginning of this Year
Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Christopher Waller gave a C+ to the latest US inflation data, saying that it’s ‘far from failing but it’s not stellar’. Equity investors, however, continue giving the US stock indices a big, fat A+ on robust earnings, yes, but also on hope that...
Sterling Soars Once Again in the Wake of Consensus-Beating CPI
Markets US Treasury and German yields both ended a fairly quiet trading day a few basis points lower. Fed’s Waller in a second speech yesterday said that he’d consider a rate cut at the end of the year (December) if the data warranted it. He added that policy was...
NZDUSD Posts New 2-Month High
NZDUSD starts the day with strong upside momentum after RBNZ decision MACD and RSI tick higher NZDUSD had an aggressive bullish start at the beginning of the day, following the bounce off the 0.6080 support level and creating a spike towards a fresh two-month high of...
Market Analysis: GBP/USD Climbs Steadily While EUR/GBP Struggles
GBP/USD is gaining pace above the 1.2640 resistance. EUR/GBP declined steadily below the 0.8565 and 0.8550 support levels. Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today The British Pound is attempting a fresh increase above 1.2700. There is a key bullish...
GBPUSD Renews Positive Momentum Within Channel
GBPUSD strengthens to a two-month high within bullish channel Short-term bias looks positive, but buying appetite might lose pace UK S&P Global PMIs and BoE member Pill on the agenda on Wednesday Following a short period of consolidation around the 1.2700 level,...
NZD Spikes on Hawkish RBNZ Decision, Focus Shifts to UK Inflation Data
New Zealand Dollar surged sharply higher following RBNZ’s unexpectedly hawkish rate decision. While OCR was left unchanged, the central bank signaled the increased possibility of another rate hike this year and delayed projected timing of the first rate cut to the...
FX option expiries for 22 May 10am New York cut
There aren't any major expiries to take note of for the day.As such, trading sentiment will continue to be driven by the recent market mood. And that means we might be in for another duller session overall, with traders mostly waiting on the Fed minutes later today...
USDCAD’s Upturn Still Lackluster – Action Forex
USDCAD pivots gently higher but still constrained between trendlines A decisive bounce above 1.3745 needed for fresh buying Canadian CPI scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT; Fed speakers on the agenda too USDCAD has been tip-toeing higher since its downward pattern...
Is the Time for WTI Crude Oil to Create Bearish Correction?
Fed’s cautious stance drives WTI crude oil lower Commodity capped by bearish cross and 80.00 level in daily chart Prices consolidate in 4-hour timeframe Oil prices continued to decrease on Tuesday due to the cautious stance of Fed officials despite the recent...
Canada’s CPI falls to 2.7% in Apr, matches expectations
Canada’s CPI slowed from 2.9% yoy to 2.7% yoy in April, matched expectations. Ex-gasoline, CPI slowed from 2.8% yoy to 2.5% yoy. Gasoline prices accelerated from 4.5% yoy to 6.1% yoy. Food prices slowed from 1.9% yoy to 1.4% yoy. On a monthly basis CPI rose 0.5% mom,...
USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3602; (P) 1.3618; (R1) 1.3641; More… USD/CAD recovered notably today but stays below 1.3689 resistance. Intraday bias stays neutral first. Strong bounce from current level will confirm support by 55 D EMA (now at 1.3628). Break of 1.3689 minor...
Canada: Inflation Cools Further in April
Headline CPI inflation edged lower in April to 2.7% year-on-year (y/y), matching expectations. The broad-based deceleration was led by food prices, services and durable goods. However, higher prices at the pump in April worked against the cooling in inflation....
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.75; (P) 156.03; (R1) 156.56; More… Outlook in USD/JPY is unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral. Price actions from 160.20 are seen as a corrective pattern. On the upside, break of 156.78 will resume the rise from 151.86, as the second leg,...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9087; (P) 0.9098; (R1) 0.9118; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays mildly on the upside at this point. Corrective fall from 0.9223 might have completed with three waves down to 0.8987 already. Further rally should be seen back to retest 0.9223....
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2687; (P) 1.2707; (R1) 1.2725; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside at this point. Rise from 1.2298 would target 100% projection of 1.2298 to 1.2633 from 1.2445 at 1.2780. On the downside, below 1.2642 minor support will turn...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets: Trading was again confined to rather tight ranges today. US yields created some breathing space end last week compared to important support levels (4.7% area US 2-y yield, 4.3/37% area 10-y yield), but for now follow-through gains look rather difficult. Eco...
How Will Eurozone PMIs Impact ECB Expectations?
Eurozone economy has been improving in 2024 But investors still anticipate an ECB rate cut in June The flash PMIs could impact bets beyond that meeting The data comes out on Thursday at 08:00 GMT ECB signals confidence in lowering rates At their latest gathering, ECB...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0846; (P) 1.0865; (R1) 1.0877; More… EUR/USD is still bounded in consolidations below 1.0894 and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 1.0810 resistance turned support holds. Break of 1.0894 will resume the rise to...
Fed’s Waller: Several months of data needed before supporting rate cuts
Fed Governor Christopher Waller emphasized in a speech today that “several more months” of favorable inflation data are necessary before he would consider supporting interest rate cuts. While the latest CPI data was a “reassuring signal” indicating that inflation is...
CAD Sinks after CPI, NZD Await RBNZ
Canadian Dollar sees a broad decline in early US session due to growing speculation about rate cut by BoC in the near future. April’s headline CPI slowed as expected, despite a significant increase in gasoline prices. Core inflation measures also showed more progress...
NZD/USD Steady Ahead of RBNZ Rate Announcement
The New Zealand dollar is almost unchanged on Tuesday. NZD/USD is down 0.06%, trading at 0.6102 in the European session at the time of writing. RBNZ expected to maintain cash rate The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has shown it can be patient, having held the cash rate...
IMF recommends BoE cut rates by 50-75 bps in 2024
IMF issued a report today suggesting that with UK inflation currently 2% above its neutral rate estimate, BoE should consider moving towards monetary easing. IMF highlighted the risks of “delayed easing”, cautioning that while BoE emphasizes the need to wait for...
Fed Rate Expectations Whipsawed by Fed Speakers and US CPI
It has been a rollercoaster period for Fed rate cut expectations Sticky US inflation is keeping the market on its toes Numerous Fed speakers this week; market sensitive to hawkish comments Dollar’s 2024 gains dented despite divergent monetary policy outlooks The year...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 197.76; (P) 198.21; (R1) 199.01; More… Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside. Current rise from 191.34, as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 200.53, should target 100% projection of 191.34 to 180.07 from 195.02 at 200.75. On the...
Number of Central Bank Speakers Increases
Markets Markets took a slow start to the new trading week. An empty eco calendar facilitated the status quo. Cleveland Fed Mester said that inflation risks moved up in Q1 while the economy was a little bit stronger than anticipated. Given that she wasn’t on the median...
Commodity Currencies Retreat from Local Highs
Despite the cooling labour market in the US and declining inflation, the American currency continues to move towards new highs. For instance, the USD/JPY currency pair might update the current month’s high at 156.70, the NZD/USD sharply declines after retesting...
Gold Price Reaches Historic High
According to confirmed information, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, considered a potential successor to the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, died in a helicopter crash in a mountainous area near the border with Azerbaijan. The helicopter also carried...
Eurozone goods exports down -9.2% yoy in Mar, imports down -12.0% yoy
Eurozone goods exports fell -9.2% yoy to EUR 245.5B in March. Goods imports fell -12.0% yoy to EUR 221.3B. Trade balance recorded EUR 24.1B surplus. Intra-Eurozone trade fell -12.4% yoy to EUR 222.1B. In seasonally adjusted term, goods exports rose 0.1% mom to EUR...
EURJPY Shows Appetite for Retesting 40-Year High
EURJPY holds well above uptrend line RSI stands near 70 level Next target at multi-year peak EURJPY is rallying sharply higher after the strong bounce off the 164.00 support level and the medium-term ascending trend line. The pair is heading towards the previous...
FX option expiries for 21 May 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.0840 level. It isn't one that is too technically significant but could hold price action from slipping much lower at least in the session ahead. That being said, we are...
Aussie and Yen Decline, Loonie Awaits Crucial CPI Data
Australian Dollar weakened broadly during Asian session as its recent rally lost momentum. Despite RBA minutes revealing that a rate hike was considered earlier this month, which should have been supportive for the Aussie, this positive sentiment was countered by weak...
Pound Shrugs After BoE’s Broadbent Signals Rate cut
The British pound is almost unchanged on Monday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2704 in the European session at the time of writing. The pound is coming off a strong week, with gains of 1.4%. GBP/USD touched a high last week of 1.2711, its highest point since March 21. The...
Australian Dollar Eyes RBA Minutes
The Australian dollar is unchanged at the time of writing, trading at 0.6692 in the European session. There are no economic releases out of the US or Australia today, which should translate into a quiet day for AUD/USD. The Aussie is coming off an excellent week,...
USD/JPY: Conflicting Factors at Play, Sideways for Now in the Short-Term
The Japanese Government Bond (JGB) market is now anticipating a potential Q2 recovery in the Japanese economy as the 2-year and 10-year JGB yields have rallied to more than a decade high. The 10-year and 20-year yield premiums of US Treasuries over JGBs have shrunk in...
Bitcoin Cautious Despite Global Rise in Risk Appetite
Market picture Crypto market capitalisation rose 5.2% over the past seven days to $2.41 trillion. Over the weekend, it reached $2.44 trillion, its highest level in nearly four weeks. Bitcoin is treading near local highs, remaining just below $67K. That’s a gain of...
Will UK Inflation Corroborate a June BoE Rate Cut?
Investors assign 60% chance for a June rate cut by the BoE UK CPI data to reveal whether inflation hit the BoE’s target But PMIs imply some upside risks The data is scheduled for Wednesday at 06:00 GMT BoE appears more dovish than expected While a few weeks ago...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0844; (P) 1.0861; (R1) 1.0886; More… EUR/USD is staying in consolidation below 1.0894 and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 1.0810 resistance turned support holds. Break of 1.0894 will resume the rise to 1.0980...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2660; (P) 1.2686; (R1) 1.2727; More… No change in GBP/USD’s outlook and intraday bias stays on the upside. Firm break of 1.2708 resistance will extend the rise from 1.2298 to 100% projection of 1.2298 to 1.2633 from 1.2445 at 1.2780. On the...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9062; (P) 0.9080; (R1) 0.9110; More…. No change in USD/CHF’s outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, firm break of 0.9101 will argue that corrective fall from 0.9223 has completed with three waves down to 0.8987 already. Further...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.29; (P) 155.63; (R1) 156.02; More… No change in USD/JPY’s outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. Price actions from 160.20 are seen as a corrective pattern. On the upside, break of 156.78 will resume the rise from 151.86, as the second leg, to...
Oil Shows Weakness – Action Forex
Oil is losing about 0.75% of its peak on Monday, having hit a strengthening sell-off as it attempts to climb above $80/bbl WTI and $84/bbl Brent. Interestingly, oil is declining despite the death of Iran’s president, which should reinforce the risk premium, and...
Risk-On Rally Continues in Quiet Markets, Forex Lacks Direction
Global financial markets are trading with a risk-on sentiment today, starting from the Asian session and continuing through the European and early US sessions. However, gains in stocks have been relatively limited, partly constrained by recovery in benchmark treasury...
Fed’s Bostic: Maybe only one rate cut this year
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic stated in a BloombergTV interview today that it will take time before the Fed is confident that inflation will return to 2%. He reiterated his stance that “nothing has changed” regarding his view that perhaps only one rate cut will...
Fed’s Barr: Not confident to start easing monetary policy yet
Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr stated in a speech today that while inflation has decreased from its peak of 7.1% to 2.7%, it is “not yet all the way to 2% target. He noted that inflation readings for the first quarter were “disappointing,” as highlighted in FOMC’s recent...
AUDCAD Rises to New 14-Month High
AUDCAD is higher again today above 0.9100 RSI and MACD are holding in their positive regions AUDCAD has been in an upward movement since February 8, posting a 14-month high of 0.9125 earlier in the day. Entering the 0.9100 area has been a struggle over the past two...
EUR/AUD Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6210; (P) 1.6259; (R1) 1.6288; More… Intraday bias in EUR/AD is back on the downside with breach of 1.6216 support. Current fall from 1.6742 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.7062. Deeper fall would be seen to 1.6127...
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8547; (P) 0.8566; (R1) 0.8577; More… Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the downside for 0.8259 support. Decisive break there will suggest that larger down trend is ready to resume through 0.8491/7 support one. On the upside, above 0.8579 minor...
Gold Unlocks Another Record High
Gold advances above sideways channel 20- and 50-day SMAs tick up MACD and RSI suggest more upside pressure Next target at 261.8% Fibo extension of 2,515 Gold prices skyrocketed to another fresh high of 2,450 earlier in the day, currently holding above the previous...
Gold Hits New Record High
On Monday, a troy ounce of gold set a new price peak of 3438.00 USD. This surge was fuelled by renewed speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, vigorous gold purchases by banks globally, and strong investor demand for safe-haven...
BoE’s Broadbent: Summer rate cut possible
In a speech today, BoE Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent indicated that if current forecasts hold, which suggest that monetary policy will need to become “less restrictive at some point”, a rate cut could occur “over the summer”. Broadbent noted that the direct impact of...
Could RBNZ Support Kiwi’s Recent Strength?
RBNZ meets on Wednesday, no rate change expected Quarterly forecasts and press statement will be closely scrutinized Press conference to gain interest if RBNZ turns dovish Kiwi’s recent run against the dollar could be under threat Third RBNZ meeting in 2024 The...
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 168.87; (P) 169.10; (R1) 169.42; More… EUR/JPY’s rise from 1.6401 resumed by breaking 169.38 and intraday bias is back on the upside. This rally, as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 171.58, should target this high next. On the downside,...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 197.03; (P) 197.45; (R1) 198.10; More… Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays on the upside at this point. Rise from 191.34, as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 200.53, should target this high next. On the downside, firm break of 195.02 will...
FX option expiries for 20 May 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first ones are for EUR/USD at 1.0875 and 1.0900. That is likely to keep price action more compact in that range on the day, considering little to work with in European trading as well. It's a...
Week Begins with Market Optimism, Metals See Strong Gains
Asian markets kicked off the week on a positive note, buoyed by the record-breaking rally in US markets last week. Despite escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have spurred strong rallies in metals, stock investors appear relatively calm. Trading...
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast – Action Forex
EUR/USD: Weak Inflation = Weak USD The American currency suffered two significant blows last week. Although these were not knockdowns, let alone knockouts, these minor shocks pushed the DXY Dollar Index down from 105.26 to 104.20 points, and EUR/USD up from 1.0766 to...
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Fed Rate Cuts Back on the Table?
Summary United States: Let’s Wait and See There was no shortage of economic data this week, but little did much to change the macro landscape. The April inflation data were a step in the right direction, and if sustained, we see the first rate cut coming in September....
The Weekly Bottom Line: Inflation Breaks Its Heat Streak
U.S. Highlights After three consecutive months of hotter-than-expected inflation, consumer prices in the U.S. finally broke the heat streak in April, with headline and core inflation decelerating. Retail sales also lost momentum in April, with spending coming in flat...
Risk-On Sentiment Pushes US Stocks to New Highs, Safe-Haven Currencies Underperform
Risk-on sentiment dominated global financial markets last week, with investors buoyed by US inflation report that alleviated fears of another interest rate hike by Fed. The DOW defied gravity and surged to a new record high above the 40k mark, while S&P 500 and...
EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/AUD stayed in sideway trading above 1.6216 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and further decline is expected. Break of 1.6216 will resume the fall from 1.6742, as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.7062....
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/GBP’s fall last week argues that rebound from 0.8529 has completed at 0.8619 already. Initial bias remain the downside this week for 0.8529 support first. Decisive break there will that larger down trend is ready to resume through 0.8491/7 support one. On the...
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/JPY retreated after rising further to 169.38 last week but then recovered. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, and further rise is expected. Break of 169.38 will resume the rally from 164.01, as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 171.58,...
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CAD edged lower to 1.3589 last week but recovered. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further decline is in favor as long as 1.3689 resistance holds. Break of 1.3589 will resume whole fall from 1.3845 and target 100% projection of 1.3845 to 1.3608 from...
AUD/USD Weekly Report – Action Forex
AUD/USD’s rally from 0.6361 resumed last week but retreated after hitting 0.6713. Initial bias remains neutral for some consolidations. Further rally is expected as long as 0.6578 support holds. As noted before, fall from 0.6870 has probably completed with three waves...
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/CHF rebounded strongly after edging lower to 0.8987 last week, but upside is capped below 0.9101 resistance. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 0.9101 will argue that corrective fall from 0.9223 has completed with three waves...
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/USD’s rise from 1.2298 resumed by breaking through 1.2633 last week. Initial bias is now on the upside this week. Firm break of 1.2708 resistance will target 100% projection of 1.2298 to 1.2633 from 1.2445 at 1.2780. On the downside, below 1.2642 minor support...
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/USD’s rally from 1.0601 resumed last week and further to 1.0894 before retreating. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations first. Further rally is expected as long as 1.0810 resistance turned support holds. Break of 1.0894 will resume the rise to...
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
USD/JPY fell sharply after edging higher to 156.78 but recovered again after hitting 153.59. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Price actions from 160.20 are seen as a corrective pattern. On the upside break of 156.78 will resume the rise from 151.86, as...
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
GBP/JPY’s rebound from 191.34 continued last week despite interim retreat. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 200.53 resistance. On the downside, break of 195.02 support will argue that corrective pattern from 200.53 has started the third leg already, and...
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook – Action Forex
EUR/CHF’s rally from 0.9252 resumed by breaking through 0.9847 resistance last week. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 61.8% projection of 0.9304 to 0.9847 from 0.9563 at 0.9899. Decisive break there could prompt upside acceleration to 100% projection at...
Summary 5/20 – 5/24
Monday, May 20, 2024 Tuesday, May 21, 2024 Wednesday, May 22, 2024 Thursday, May 23, 2024 Friday, May 24, 2024 The post Summary 5/20 – 5/24 appeared first on Action Forex.
GBPJPY Ascends as BoJ is on the Lookout
GBPJPY in the green again, returns to pre-intervention levels Increasing possibility of another BoJ intervention Momentum indicators remain mostly bullish GBPJPY is edging higher again today, recording its ninth green candle in the last 10 sessions. The bearish...
Euro Edges Lower Despite Positive Inflation Report
The euro has posted slight losses on Friday. EUR/USD is down 0.28%, trading at 1.0837 in the North American session at the time of writing. Eurozone CPI steady, core CPI falls The April inflation report showed that headline inflation remained steady at 2.4% y/y,...
S&P 500 Index Hits Record High Amidst Lower Inflation
The US stock market has surged to new heights, with the S&P 500 index reaching a record high of 5,325 points and the DJIA index touching 40,000 points. Investors are experiencing euphoria, spurred by the unexpectedly low US inflation figures released earlier....
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0850; (P) 1.0872; (R1) 1.0890; More… EUR/USD is staying in consolidation below 1.0894 and intraday bias stays neutral at this point. Further rally is expected as long as 1.0765 support holds. Break of 1.0894 will resume the rise from 1.0601 to...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2642; (P) 1.2672; (R1) 1.2699; More… GBP/USD is staying in consolidation below 1.2669 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 1.2445 support holds. Break of 1.2708 resistance will pave the way to 1.2892 resistance...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9013; (P) 0.9038; (R1) 0.9088; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral at this point. Further decline is expected as long as 0.9101 resistance holds. Break of 0.8987 will resume the whole fall from 0.9223 and target 38.2% retracement of...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.15; (P) 154.84; (R1) 156.08; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Price actions from 160.20 are seen as a corrective pattern. On the upside break of 156.78 will resume the rise from 151.86, as the second leg,...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Several ECB policymakers hit the wires today, including Holzmann, de Guindos and heavyweight Schnabel. As a loyal hawk it was no surprise for Holzmann to caution against easing before the central bank is certain of inflation’s return to 2%. De Guindos stuck to...
Elliott Wave Expects Silver (XAGUSD) Pullback to Find Support
Short Term Elliott Wave in Silver (XAGUSD) suggests the metal rallies in impulsive structure from 10.3.2023 low. Up from there, wave (1) ended at 25.91 and dip sin wave (2) ended at 21.94. The metal then extended higher in wave (3) towards 29.79. Pullback in wave (4)...
Canadian Inflation Prints to Show Another Step Down in April
Next week’s Canadian April inflation report will be the last major data release before the Bank of Canada’s next interest rate decision on June 5th. Absent an upside surprise, we think the soft conditions in the economy and labour markets should warrant a 25-bps...
Week Ahead – Flash PMIs, UK & Japan CPIs in Focus; RBNZ to Hold Rates
After cool US CPI, attention shifts to UK and Japanese inflation Flash PMIs will be watched too amid signs of a rebound in Europe Fed to stay in the spotlight as plethora of speakers, minutes on tap No fireworks expected from RBNZ policy decision Will CPI report bring...
Dollar Still in Recovery With Indecisive Momentum; Eyes on USD/CHF Resistance
Dollar is gradually recovering from the selloff triggered by US CPI data release earlier in the week. However, the recovery momentum remains indecisive. US stock markets, after a record run, are taking a breather, but bullish sentiment still appears dominant. The...
Crypto Market Ready to Grow Further
Market picture The crypto market cooled off on Thursday afternoon, but on Friday morning, buyers stepped up again, bringing capitalisation back to levels from the day before at $2.39 trillion. Strong growth was followed by rapid profit-taking, which is a necessary...
After Surpassing $30, Silver May Aim for $50
Silver climbed above $29.8, rewriting the highs from January 2021, but once again faced selling intensification from that level for the first time in four years and has pulled back to $29.40 at the time of writing. Silver does not look overheated, as it is only now...
Australian Dollar Hits 4-month High
The Australian dollar is lower on Friday. AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.6658 in the European session, down 0.31% on the day. The Aussie touched a high of 0.6714 on Thursday, its highest level since January 10th. This followed a massive 1% surge on Wednesday after...
Pound Edges Lower, Markets Eye FedSpeak
The British pound is down slightly on Friday. GBP/USD is down 0.14%, trading at 1.2648 in the European session at the time of writing. It has been a good week for the pound, which has gained 1% against the US dollar. Wednesday’s inflation release showed CPI dipping in...
Calm Before Storm for WTI Oil Futures?
WTI oil futures hold near recent lows; develop within narrow neutral structure Technical signals indicate improving sentiment, but downside risks could emerge near 80.80 Despite occasional drops, WTI oil futures remained squeezed within the 78.00-80.00 area and...
Eurozone CPI finalized at 2.4% in Apr, core CPI at 2.7%
Eurozone CPI was finalized at 2.4% yoy in April, unchanged from March’s reading. CPI core (ex-energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) was finalized at 2.7% yoy, down from prior month’s (2.9% yoy). The highest contribution to the annual Eurozone inflation rate came from...
ECB’s de Guindos: Inflation to fluctuate at current levels before falling to 2% in 2025
ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos addressed inflation expectations at an event today, noting that “headline inflation is there at 2.4%, core inflation below 3%.” He projected that inflation will “fluctuate around these values” in the coming months. Looking further...
Selling Pressure Shifts to Yen and Swiss Franc, Dollar Recovers on Fed’s Hawkish Remarks
Yen’s selloff resumed after brief recovery yesterday and continued to weaken throughout Asian session. Markets largely ignored comments from former BoJ chief economist Toshitaka Sekine, who suggested the next rate hike could happen as soon as in June. The general...
FX option expiries for 17 May 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.And they are for EUR/USD at 1.0850 and 1.0875 on the day. The former especially is a relatively large one, which should help to contain price action around current levels in European morning trade. That should...
Crypto Market Shakes Off Consolidation
Market picture The release of US inflation data sparked a surge in risk asset purchases, with cryptocurrencies leading the charge. This follows a period of prolonged consolidation, which provided enough pent-up energy to fuel increased volatility. Over the past 24...
Bitcoin Price Hits a Month’s High, Breaking Key Resistance
Yesterday’s release of CPI figures suggests that inflation is slowing down and a rate cut could be on the horizon. This weakened the dollar and boosted the value of assets priced in dollars, including BTC/USD. As a result, the price of Bitcoin hit a May high....
Australian Dollar Surges After US Inflation Ease
The Australian dollar is lower on Thursday after surging 0.98% a day earlier. AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.6671, down 0.33% on the day. Australian job growth rebounds but unemployment rate rises Australian employment bounced back in April with an increase of...
US initial jobless claims falls to 222k, slightly above expectations
US initial jobless claims fell -10k to 222k in the week ending May 11, slightly above expectation of 219k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 2.5k to 218k. Continuing claims rose 13k to 1794k in the week ending May 4. Four-week moving average of...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9001; (P) 0.9036; (R1) 0.9057; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF is turned neutral again first with current recovery. But further decline is expected as long as 0.9101 resistance holds. Break of 0.8987 will resume the whole fall from 0.9223 and...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.21; (P) 155.38; (R1) 156.08; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with current recovery. Outlook is unchanged that fall from 156.78 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20 high. Below 153.59 will target 151.86...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2610; (P) 1.2648; (R1) 1.2725; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Rise from 1.2298 is in progress. Firm break of 1.2780 will pave the way to 1.2892 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.2624 minor support will...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0783; (P) 1.0804; (R1) 1.0842; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Current rise from 1.0601 is in progress for 1.0980 resistance. Decisive break there will confirm that whole fall from 1.1138 has completed already....
Euro Edges Lower After ECB’s Financial Stability Warning
The euro has posted slight losses on Thursday. EUR/USD is down 0.20%, trading at 1.0860 in the North American session at the time of writing. ECB warns of risks to financial stability The ECB’s Financial Stability Review expressed concern that financial stability...
Sunset Market Commentary – Action Forex
Markets Since the May 1 Fed decision/communication dominos fell in place for markets to embrace a correction on the April higher-for-long rally in US (and broader) yields. Despite US inflation holding sticky, Fed Chair Powell ‘reassured’ markets that policy was tight...
USD/JPY Steady as Japanese Economy Contracts
The Japanese yen climbed as much as 0.85% earlier on Thursday but has pared most of those gains. USD/JPY is trading at 155.38, up 0.31% in the European session. Japan’s economy contracted in the first quarter. GDP declined by 2% y/y in the first quarter, following a...
Gold Retreats After Hitting Upper Bollinger Band
Gold remains bullish in near term RSI moves horizontally below 70 level Gold prices recorded their second session of losses in the 4-hour chart after a failed attempt to break significantly above the 2,400 round level. Chances for a reversal are increasing as the RSI...
Dollar Recovers as US Stock Rally Stalls, Import Prices Pose Challenge
The strong rally in US stocks seen yesterday appears to lack follow-through momentum, with futures indicating a flat open today. The benchmark 10-year yield is fluctuating within a tight range, and Dollar is broadly recovering as selling momentum wanes. The strong...
US import price index rises 0.9% mom in Apr, highest since Mar 2022
US import price index rose 0.9% mom in April, well above expectation of 0.2% mom. That’s also the highest 1-month increase since March 2022. Over the past 12 months, import prices rose 1.1% yoy, highest since December 2022. Export price rose 0.5% mom, 1.0% yoy. Full...
Fed’s Williams: Monetary policy in a good place, no need to tighten today
In a Reuters interview, New York Fed President John Williams expressed confidence in the current state of monetary policy, stating that it is “in a good place.” He highlighted the positive mix of economic data, noting strong consumer spending, business investment, and...
ECB’s Centeno: Interest rate will come down
ECB Governing Council member Mario Centeno stated at a news conference today that Eurozone inflation rate’s fall towards the 2% target is “real,” and assured that the monetary policy interest rate will decrease. “The market expects that the interest rate reduction...
JPY Has Sharply Strengthened
The yen’s exchange rate rose to the US dollar on Thursday in response to improving prospects for the Federal Reserve interest rate. The USDJPY pair has declined to 153.88. After the US released up-to-date data on April inflation, the likelihood of a reduction in the...
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8570; (P) 0.8585; (R1) 0.8595; More… EUR/GBP’s break of 0.8585 minor support argues that rebound from 0.8529 has completed at 0.8619. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.8529 support. Decisive break there will argue that larger down trend...
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 167.99; (P) 168.70; (R1) 169.30; More… Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat. On the downside, break of 166.73 support will argue that corrective pattern from 171.58 has started the third leg. Deeper fall would then be seen...
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 195.88; (P) 196.49; (R1) 197.11; More… Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat. On the downside, break of 194.74 support will suggest that corrective pattern from 200.53 has started the third leg. Deeper fall would be seen...
Elliott Wave Analysis on SPX Looking to Extend Higher in Impulsive Structure
Short Term Elliott Wave in SPX suggests that the Index ended wave (4) pullback at 4953.98. From there, it rallies higher in wave (5) as a nesting impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave (4), wave ((i)) ended at 5121.45 and dips in wave ((ii)) ended at 5013.45....
AUDUSD Eases After Bullish Spike to 4-Month High
AUDUSD jumps above trading range MACD indicates more gains; but RSI heads south 20- and 50-day SMAs post bullish cross AUDUSD posted a strong bullish day on Wednesday, showing some more upside pressure today, towards a fresh four-month high, exiting from the...
Dollar Selloff Continues as Risk-On Sentiment Drives US Stocks to New Highs
Dollar faced broad sell-offs overnight and continued to weaken in Asian session. Investors breathed a sigh of relief after US CPI data indicated that disinflation is progressing, which has reignited speculation about near-term rate cuts by Fed. Or at least, another...
FX option expiries for 16 May 10am New York cut
There are a few to take note of, as highlighted in bold.And they are all for EUR/USD layered from 1.0845 through to 1.0900. The upper bound in particular is a notable one, acting alongside offers in pinning price action down for now. But with a thick layer of expiries...
Australian Dollar Higher, Wage Growth Dips Lower
The Australian dollar has extended its gains on Wednesday. AUD/USD is up 0.24%, trading at 0.6642 in the European session at the time of writing. Has Australia’s wage growth peaked? Australian wages rose less than expected in the first quarter, a sign that...
Gold Technical: Stagflation Risk and Softer US 10-year Treasury Real Yield Supporting Bulls
Stagflation risk has led to a softer US 10-year Treasury real yield below 2.38%. The 6% decline of Gold (XAU/USD) from its recent all-time high in April may have reached an inflection point to kickstart another potential medium-term impulsive bullish sequence. Watch...
US CPI slows to 3.4% in Apr, core CPI down to 3.6%
US CPI rose 0.3% mom in April, matched expectations. CPI core (ex food and energy) rose 0.3% mom, matched expectations. Energy index rose 1.1% mom while food index was unchanged. Over the 12-months, CPI slowed from 3.5% yoy to 3.4% yoy , matched expectations. CPI core...
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.09; (P) 156.43; (R1) 156.78; More… USD/JPY’s break of 155.25 minor support argues that rebound from 151.86 has completed already. Fall from 156.78 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20 high. Intraday bias is back on the...
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9047; (P) 0.9074; (R1) 0.9094; More…. USD/CHF is holding above 0.9005 support and intraday bias remains neutral first. Further decline is expected as long as 0.9101 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 0.9005 will resume the fall from...
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2538; (P) 1.2565; (R1) 1.2621; More… GBP/USD’s rebound from 1.2298 resumed by breaking through 1.2633 and intraday bias is back on the upside. Further rise should be seen to 1.2708 resistance first. Firm break there will pave the way back to...
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook – Action Forex
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0783; (P) 1.0804; (R1) 1.0842; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside as rise from 1.0601 is in progress. Firm break of 1.0884 will pave the way to 1.0980 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.0812 minor support will turn...
U.S. Retail Sales Starts Q2 on a Subdued Note
Retail sales came in flat for the month of April. Additionally, March’s growth was revised downward to a 0.6 % gain (previously 0.7%). The reading was lower than the consensus forecast calling for a modest increase of 0.4% Trade in the auto sector was down -0.8% m/m,...
US: Core Inflation Cools to Near Three-Year Low in April
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% month-on-month (m/m) in April, a tick below the consensus forecast. On a twelve-month basis, CPI inflation edged lower by 0.1 percentage points to 3.4%. Higher gasoline prices (+2.8% m/m) were partly responsible for the uptick...
