Speculator bets led by Copper & Silver :: InvestMacro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper  with a gain by 4,875 contracts followed by Silver with a small gain of 147 contracts for the week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Steel (-1,459 contracts), Platinum (-766 contracts), Gold (-496 contracts) and with Palladium (-268 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

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Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Silver & Copper

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (100 percent), Copper (93 percent) and Steel (86 percent) led the metals markets this week. Gold (67 percent) and Platinum (67 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores and above the mid-point level of 50 percent (over the past 3-years).

On the downside, Palladium (27 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (67.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (67.6 percent)
Silver (100.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (99.8 percent)
Copper (93.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (87.6 percent)
Platinum (66.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (68.8 percent)
Palladium (27.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (28.6 percent)
Steel (85.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (91.5 percent)

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Platinum & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (60 percent) and Copper (59 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals with strong trend score increases.

Steel (-4 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently and is the only market with lower 6-week trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (4.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (27.3 percent)
Silver (37.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (58.5 percent)
Copper (59.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (49.5 percent)
Platinum (60.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (41.1 percent)
Palladium (21.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (21.4 percent)
Steel (-4.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (6.3 percent)

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Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 201,923 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -496 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 202,419 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.9	25.7	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.9	68.7	5.7
– Net Position:	201,923	-222,758	20,835
– Gross Longs:	278,777	132,684	50,245
– Gross Shorts:	76,854	355,442	29,410
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.4	34.4	41.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.8	-6.5	17.1

 

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Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 53,359 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 147 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,212 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.9	26.4	18.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	68.5	6.8
– Net Position:	53,359	-74,028	20,669
– Gross Longs:	82,415	46,442	32,658
– Gross Shorts:	29,056	120,470	11,989
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.4	81.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	37.9	-36.5	22.2

 

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Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 47,569 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,875 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,694 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.3	23.2	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.4	42.0	4.9
– Net Position:	47,569	-56,086	8,517
– Gross Longs:	144,590	69,560	23,259
– Gross Shorts:	97,021	125,646	14,742
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.1	7.8	72.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	59.1	-60.0	37.2

 

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Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 18,241 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -766 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,007 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.1	18.9	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.8	47.8	4.3
– Net Position:	18,241	-23,614	5,373
– Gross Longs:	52,430	15,494	8,927
– Gross Shorts:	34,189	39,108	3,554
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.7	34.6	40.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	60.4	-49.7	-30.0

 

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Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -9,034 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -268 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,766 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	56.4	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	69.3	13.1	7.6
– Net Position:	-9,034	9,024	10
– Gross Longs:	5,414	11,759	1,599
– Gross Shorts:	14,448	2,735	1,589
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	4.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.0	76.2	42.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.5	-21.1	-0.1

 

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Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,459 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,271 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.1	82.3	1.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.6	72.0	1.2
– Net Position:	-2,730	2,665	65
– Gross Longs:	3,119	21,291	364
– Gross Shorts:	5,849	18,626	299
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.9	14.8	39.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.0	3.6	10.5

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.