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By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Steel

Metals Futures Large Speculator Net Position Changes

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (1,319 contracts) with Steel (1,136 contracts) also recording a positive contract week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Silver (-4,846 contracts), Palladium (-1,912 contracts), Platinum (-667 contracts) and with Copper (-330 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

metals leaders

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Copper & Silver

Metals Speculator Strength Score 3 YR Range

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Copper (100 percent), Silver (93 percent) and Steel (86 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (68 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (15 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Platinum (36 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (68.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (67.8 percent)
Silver (93.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (100.0 percent)
Copper (99.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (100.0 percent)
Platinum (36.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (38.0 percent)
Palladium (15.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (26.7 percent)
Steel (86.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (81.8 percent)


Copper tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

Metals Speculator Strength Trend 6 Weeks

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (28 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals. Silver (3 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Palladium (-6 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Steel (-1 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (1.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (0.6 percent)
Silver (2.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (25.5 percent)
Copper (27.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (56.3 percent)
Platinum (1.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (0.1 percent)
Palladium (-6.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (8.7 percent)
Steel (-0.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (-6.0 percent)


Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 204,210 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,319 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 202,891 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 53.6 24.4 9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.4 68.2 5.2
– Net Position: 204,210 -227,498 23,288
– Gross Longs: 278,850 126,925 50,274
– Gross Shorts: 74,640 354,423 26,986
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.7 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.4 32.5 49.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.2 -4.1 23.6

 


Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 54,494 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,846 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,340 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 50.0 24.5 19.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.2 69.7 7.0
– Net Position: 54,494 -75,196 20,702
– Gross Longs: 83,094 40,745 32,309
– Gross Shorts: 28,600 115,941 11,607
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.9 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 93.3 2.7 81.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.9 -13.6 51.1

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 58,064 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -330 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,394 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 52.1 22.5 7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.3 45.2 5.0
– Net Position: 58,064 -66,642 8,578
– Gross Longs: 152,807 66,105 23,247
– Gross Shorts: 94,743 132,747 14,669
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 99.6 0.0 72.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 27.8 -26.9 6.3

 


Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 6,797 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -667 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,464 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 53.1 25.6 11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 44.6 41.3 4.2
– Net Position: 6,797 -12,570 5,773
– Gross Longs: 42,532 20,552 9,143
– Gross Shorts: 35,735 33,122 3,370
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 36.2 60.6 45.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.4 1.3 -13.6

 


Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -11,070 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,912 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,158 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.0 56.2 8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 69.8 10.6 7.3
– Net Position: -11,070 10,780 290
– Gross Longs: 5,433 13,294 2,011
– Gross Shorts: 16,503 2,514 1,721
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 5.3 to 1 1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 15.0 86.5 59.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.5 3.3 30.3

 


Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,663 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,136 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,799 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.0 80.3 1.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.9 69.7 1.1
– Net Position: -2,663 2,571 92
– Gross Longs: 3,629 19,477 357
– Gross Shorts: 6,292 16,906 265
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 86.2 14.4 42.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.5 0.6 -1.9

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.


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