Select Page

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by MSCI EAFE-Mini & Russell-Mini

Stocks Futures Speculator Net Position Changes

The COT stock markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the MSCI EAFE-Mini (14,518 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (5,977 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (1,460 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets this week were the Nasdaq-Mini (-15,315 contracts), the S&P500-Mini (-5,693 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (-1,574 contracts) and the VIX (-1,633 contracts).


Net Speculators Leaderboard

stocks leaders

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

 


Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & VIX

Stocks Speculator Strength Scores 3 YR Range 0 100

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (90 percent) and the VIX (77 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Russell-Mini (72 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nikkei 225 (29 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (31 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (77.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (78.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (31.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (32.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (89.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (87.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (55.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (78.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (72.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (67.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (29.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (40.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (49.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (34.1 percent)


MSCI EAFE-Mini & VIX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Stocks Speculator Strength Score Trends 6 Weeks

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (14 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The VIX (3 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (1 percent) are the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-41 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-23 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (2.6 percent) vs VIX previous week (4.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-8.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-15.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (1.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-12.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-40.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-17.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-23.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-32.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (-5.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-7.5 percent)
EAFE-Mini (13.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-2.1 percent)


Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -40,704 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,071 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.6 44.9 7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.9 33.1 8.0
– Net Position: -40,704 42,920 -2,216
– Gross Longs: 74,471 162,356 26,855
– Gross Shorts: 115,175 119,436 29,071
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.4 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 77.0 19.6 85.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.6 -4.5 12.6

 


S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -224,223 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,693 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -218,530 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.7 73.2 11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.3 67.2 7.7
– Net Position: -224,223 141,214 83,009
– Gross Longs: 298,538 1,716,692 263,456
– Gross Shorts: 522,761 1,575,478 180,447
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.3 59.4 70.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.2 5.4 6.4

 


Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 18,188 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,460 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,728 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.5 51.3 15.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.0 72.4 11.6
– Net Position: 18,188 -21,957 3,769
– Gross Longs: 32,779 53,399 15,869
– Gross Shorts: 14,591 75,356 12,100
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 89.9 6.4 62.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.3 -6.3 17.3

 


Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 10,246 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -15,315 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,561 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.5 53.2 13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.9 59.4 11.1
– Net Position: 10,246 -17,702 7,456
– Gross Longs: 90,667 153,361 39,468
– Gross Shorts: 80,421 171,063 32,012
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.0 33.1 96.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -40.8 23.1 14.2

 


Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -18,228 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,977 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,205 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.5 80.2 6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.1 78.7 4.1
– Net Position: -18,228 7,956 10,272
– Gross Longs: 64,457 413,104 31,433
– Gross Shorts: 82,685 405,148 21,161
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 72.2 25.6 63.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -23.0 20.2 3.5

 


Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -5,294 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,574 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,720 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.1 65.6 25.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.2 48.1 13.7
– Net Position: -5,294 3,190 2,104
– Gross Longs: 1,669 11,974 4,600
– Gross Shorts: 6,963 8,784 2,496
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 29.0 55.3 71.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.8 -0.8 15.4

 


MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -16,684 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 14,518 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,202 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.7 86.9 3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.5 84.1 2.0
– Net Position: -16,684 11,998 4,686
– Gross Longs: 41,874 375,975 13,462
– Gross Shorts: 58,558 363,977 8,776
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.1 49.4 40.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.9 -13.0 -3.6

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.


investmacro stock market newsletter

  • COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by MSCI EAFE-Mini & Russell-Mini Mar 3, 2024
  • COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Corn & Lean Hogs Mar 3, 2024
  • GameStop (GME): 88% Shellacking Yet No Lesson Learned Mar 2, 2024
  • Semiconductor stocks continue to rally. The first interest rate cuts by central banks are expected in June Mar 1, 2024
  • AI, Digital Wallet Firm Picked for Sports Accelerator Program Feb 29, 2024
  • The German Index set an all-time high. Bitcoin rate reached 2-year high Feb 29, 2024
  • Target Thursdays: USDJPY, EURNZD & Silver reach targets! Feb 29, 2024
  • The RBNZ kept the interest rate on hold and took a less hawkish stance. Inflation in Australia is at two-year lows Feb 28, 2024
  • EUR/USD Shows Resilience Amid Risk Appetite Feb 27, 2024
  • XAGUSD: Poised to fill the gap? Feb 27, 2024
Share it on social networks