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By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & MSCI EAFE-Mini

Stocks Futures Speculator Net Position Changes 1

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (17,184 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (2,480 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (92 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the Russell-Mini (-4,458 contracts), the VIX (-1,979 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-616 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (-812 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Speculators Leaderboard

stocks leaders 1

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & Nasdaq-Mini

Stocks Speculator Strength Scores 3 YR Range 0 100 1

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (93 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (89 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The VIX (75 percent) and Russell-Mini (68 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (33 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently with the next lowest strength score being the MSCI EAFE-Mini (38 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (75.2 percent) vs VIX previous week (76.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (32.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (30.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (93.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (94.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (88.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (90.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (67.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (70.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (42.5 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (41.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (37.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (35.0 percent)

 

MSCI EAFE-Mini & DowJones-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Stocks Speculator Strength Score Trends 6 Weeks 1

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (9 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets.

The Russell-Mini (-17 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nasdaq-Mini (-11 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-4.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (4.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-0.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-6.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (1.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (16.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-10.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (7.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-16.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-5.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (0.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-4.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (9.2 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (12.5 percent)


Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -50,966 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,979 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,987 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.1 46.2 7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 35.2 31.1 8.3
– Net Position: -50,966 54,671 -3,705
– Gross Longs: 76,506 167,381 26,308
– Gross Shorts: 127,472 112,710 30,013
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 75.2 23.4 77.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.0 2.9 8.0

 


S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -215,778 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 17,184 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -232,962 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.5 74.3 10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.7 67.8 8.2
– Net Position: -215,778 152,512 63,266
– Gross Longs: 292,466 1,738,023 254,739
– Gross Shorts: 508,244 1,585,511 191,473
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 32.6 60.9 62.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.3 3.5 -9.3

 


Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 20,369 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -616 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,985 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.6 51.1 15.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.9 73.4 12.7
– Net Position: 20,369 -23,116 2,747
– Gross Longs: 32,665 52,815 15,867
– Gross Shorts: 12,296 75,931 13,120
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 93.4 4.7 57.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.3 -3.7 8.3

 


Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 32,076 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -812 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,888 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.9 52.4 13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.0 65.0 12.1
– Net Position: 32,076 -37,213 5,137
– Gross Longs: 97,292 155,161 40,984
– Gross Shorts: 65,216 192,374 35,847
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.9 11.7 90.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.8 11.1 -8.4

 


Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -24,451 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,458 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,993 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.0 80.1 6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.8 76.9 4.8
– Net Position: -24,451 16,168 8,283
– Gross Longs: 60,783 405,971 32,713
– Gross Shorts: 85,234 389,803 24,430
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 67.7 30.9 56.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -16.7 16.8 -9.2

 


Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 92 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,480 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.8 64.2 25.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.9 54.9 14.3
– Net Position: -3,388 1,576 1,812
– Gross Longs: 1,829 10,843 4,222
– Gross Shorts: 5,217 9,267 2,410
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.5 45.5 66.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.2 -2.7 6.6

 


MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -27,856 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,480 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,336 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.9 88.8 3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.3 83.3 2.2
– Net Position: -27,856 23,703 4,153
– Gross Longs: 33,926 382,513 13,677
– Gross Shorts: 61,782 358,810 9,524
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 37.6 61.4 37.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.2 -5.7 -16.4

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.


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