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By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator bets led lower by S&P500 & MSCI EAFE

Stocks Futures Speculator Net Position Changes

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as all of the seven stock markets we cover had lower speculator net contract positions.

Leading the declines for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (-24,545 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-7,498 contracts), the VIX (-4,433 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-4,189 contracts), Nasdaq-Mini (-3,353 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-1,654 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-407 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

stocks leaders

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by VIX & S&P500-Mini

Stocks Speculator Strength Scores 3 YR Range 0 100

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (91 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (71 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The DowJones-Mini (69 percent) and Nikkei 225 (65 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nasdaq-Mini (43 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (90.8 percent) vs VIX previous week (95.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (71.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (74.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (68.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (71.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (43.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (48.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (56.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (59.5 percent)
Nikkei USD (64.9 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (68.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (54.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (62.6 percent)


S&P500-Mini & VIX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Stocks Speculator Strength Score Trends 6 Weeks

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the S&P500-Mini (35 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The VIX (24 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-19 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (24.2 percent) vs VIX previous week (33.7 percent)
S&P500-Mini (35.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (45.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-28.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-14.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-13.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (7.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-19.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-12.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (-3.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (10.3 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-3.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (17.9 percent)


Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -22,433 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,433 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,000 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.6 40.9 7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.6 33.3 8.6
– Net Position: -22,433 28,429 -5,996
– Gross Longs: 91,655 152,812 26,276
– Gross Shorts: 114,088 124,383 32,272
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 90.8 10.7 65.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 24.2 -22.3 -10.9

 


S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 43,133 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -24,545 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,678 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.6 69.4 13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.4 76.9 8.6
– Net Position: 43,133 -150,593 107,460
– Gross Longs: 272,813 1,392,147 279,080
– Gross Shorts: 229,680 1,542,740 171,620
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 71.2 19.1 79.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 35.4 -36.0 9.3

 


Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 5,198 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,654 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,852 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 19.9 63.3 14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.1 70.7 12.8
– Net Position: 5,198 -6,639 1,441
– Gross Longs: 17,883 56,959 12,944
– Gross Shorts: 12,685 63,598 11,503
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.8 28.6 50.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -28.1 26.1 -3.6

 


Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 2,772 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,353 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,125 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.8 55.1 17.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.7 60.8 13.0
– Net Position: 2,772 -14,557 11,785
– Gross Longs: 60,312 139,475 44,588
– Gross Shorts: 57,540 154,032 32,803
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.5 36.5 98.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.0 3.3 13.2

 


Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -40,289 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,189 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,100 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.6 77.4 5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.0 70.0 4.6
– Net Position: -40,289 35,892 4,397
– Gross Longs: 70,255 372,284 26,725
– Gross Shorts: 110,544 336,392 22,328
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.5 43.5 43.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -19.0 19.6 -12.9

 


Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,791 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -407 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,384 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.2 71.2 21.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.3 65.6 16.1
– Net Position: -1,791 909 882
– Gross Longs: 1,161 11,519 3,490
– Gross Shorts: 2,952 10,610 2,608
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 64.9 36.2 51.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.2 8.1 -13.9

 


MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -11,145 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,647 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.4 90.4 2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.0 88.9 1.6
– Net Position: -11,145 5,989 5,156
– Gross Longs: 27,229 384,166 12,135
– Gross Shorts: 38,374 378,177 6,979
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 54.9 43.2 42.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.6 4.7 -5.7

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.


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