USD/CAD edged lower to 1.3589 last week but recovered. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further decline is in favor as long as 1.3689 resistance holds. Break of 1.3589 will resume whole fall from 1.3845 and target 100% projection of 1.3845 to 1.3608 from 1.3761 at 1.3524. Also, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.3628) will argue that whole rise from 1.3176 has completed already.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern. In case of another fall, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Firm break of 1.3976 will confirm up resumption of whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3176 at 1.4149.
In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2947 resistance turned support holds.
